Valuing the cross-sector benefits from improving youth health to drive investment in place-based preventive interventions in the US: A simulation modeling study.

Healthcare payment reform has not produced incentives for investing in place-based, or population-level, upstream preventive interventions. This article uses economic modeling to estimate the long-term benefits to different sectors associated with improvements in population health indicators in childhood. This information can motivate policymakers to invest in prevention and provide guidance for cross-sector contracting to align incentives for implementing place-based preventive interventions. A benefit-cost model developed by the Washington State Institute for Public Policy was used to estimate total and sector-specific benefits expected from improvements to nine different population health indicators at ages 17 and 18. The magnitudes of improvement used in the model were comparable to those that could be achieved by high-quality implementation of evidence-based population-level preventive interventions. Benefits accruing throughout the lifecycle and over a ten-year time horizon were modelled. Intervention effect sizes of 0.10 and 0.20 demonstrated substantial long-term benefits for eight of the nine outcomes measured. At an effect size of 0.10, the median lifecycle benefit per participant across the ten indicators was $3080 (ranged: $93 to $14,220). The median over a 10-year time horizon was $242 (range: $14 to $1357). Benefits at effect sizes of 0.20 were approximately double. Policymakers may be able to build will for additional investment based on these cross-sector returns and communities may be able to capture these cross-sector benefits through contracting to better align incentives for implementing and sustaining place-based preventive interventions.

Disparities in substance use treatment retention: An exploration of reasons for discharge from publicly funded treatment.

Although Delaware is the seventh smallest state in the country (including Washington, D.C.) in terms of population size, it has the second highest drug overdose death rate. The Delaware Division of Substance Abuse and Mental Health has increased attention in identifying disparities in treatment outcomes. We explored reasons for discharge from publicly-funded treatment in Delaware with special attention to populations at risk for health inequities, with a focus on covariates of treatment non-completion. Using secondary data collected from publicly-funded treatment providers, we analyzed data from individuals that were admitted to substance use treatment between 2015 and 2019 and had been discharged in 2019. We did this by using logistic and multinomial regression, focusing on non-completion treatment outcomes such as failure to meet requirements, loss of contact, and treatment refusal. Clients who were Black or African American, compared to white clients, were more likely to be lost contact with, administratively discharged, or marked as failing to meet treatment requirements than having a completed treatment discharge. Women were 30% less likely than men to have "failed to meet treatment requirements" compared to completing treatment. Further investigation is needed into these patterns. While treatment quality cannot be assessed using this data, the results point to a need for closer study of disparities in treatment related to race, ethnicity, gender, employment, criminal justice involvement, and type of drug used. Treatment providers should be made aware of culturally informed care, as well as client-created goals, in order to reduce disparities in exit from treatment.

Timely, Granular, and Actionable: Informatics in the Public Health 3.0 Era.

Ensuring the conditions for all people to be healthy, though always the core mission of public health, has evolved in approaches in response to the changing epidemiology and challenges. In the Public Health 3.0 era, multisectorial efforts are essential in addressing not only infectious or noncommunicable diseases but also upstream social determinants of health. In this article, we argue that actionable, geographically granular, and timely intelligence is an essential infrastructure for the protection of our health today. Even though local and state efforts are key, there are substantial federal roles in accelerating data access, connecting existing data systems, providing guidance, incentivizing nonproprietary analytic tools, and coordinating measures that matter most.

Prevalence of Masked Hypertension Among US Adults With Nonelevated Clinic Blood Pressure.

Masked hypertension (MHT), defined as nonelevated blood pressure (BP) in the clinic setting and elevated BP assessed by ambulatory monitoring, is associated with increased risk of target organ damage, cardiovascular disease, and mortality. Currently, no estimate of MHT prevalence exists for the general US population. After pooling data from the Masked Hypertension Study (n = 811), a cross-sectional clinical investigation of systematic differences between clinic BP and ambulatory BP (ABP) in a community sample of employed adults in the New York City metropolitan area (2005-2012), and the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES; 2005-2010; n = 9,316), an ongoing nationally representative US survey, we used multiple imputation to impute ABP-defined hypertension status for NHANES participants and estimate MHT prevalence among the 139 million US adults with nonelevated clinic BP, no history of overt cardiovascular disease, and no use of antihypertensive medication. The estimated US prevalence of MHT in 2005-2010 was 12.3% of the adult population (95% confidence interval: 10.0, 14.5)-approximately 17.1 million persons aged ≥21 years. Consistent with prior research, estimated MHT prevalence was higher among older persons, males, and those with prehypertension or diabetes. To our knowledge, this study provides the first estimate of US MHT prevalence-nearly 1 in 8 adults with nonelevated clinic BP-and suggests that millions of US adults may be misclassified as not having hypertension.

Public Health 3.0: A Call to Action for Public Health to Meet the Challenges of the 21st Century.

Public health is what we do together as a society to ensure the conditions in which everyone can be healthy. Although many sectors play key roles, governmental public health is an essential component. Recent stressors on public health are driving many local governments to pioneer a new Public Health 3.0 model in which leaders serve as Chief Health Strategists, partnering across multiple sectors and leveraging data and resources to address social, environmental, and economic conditions that affect health and health equity. In 2016, the US Department of Health and Human Services launched the Public Health 3.0 initiative and hosted listening sessions across the country. Local leaders and community members shared successes and provided insight on actions that would ensure a more supportive policy and resource environment to spread and scale this model. This article summarizes the key findings from those listening sessions and recommendations to achieve Public Health 3.0.

Implementation of a School Nurse-led Intervention for Children With Severe Obesity in New York City Schools.

PURPOSE: The Healthy Options and Physical Activity Program (HOP) is a school nurse-led intervention for children with severe obesity. HOP was developed by experts at the New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene and implemented in New York City schools beginning in 2012. The purpose of this study was to evaluate HOP implementation with the goal of informing HOP refinement and potential future HOP dissemination. DESIGN AND METHODS: This study entailed a retrospective analysis of secondary data. Analytic methods included descriptive statistics, Wilcoxon rank sum and Chi square tests, and multivariate logistic regression. RESULTS: During the 2012-2013 school year, 20,518 children were eligible for HOP. Of these, 1054 (5.1%) were enrolled in the program. On average, enrolled children attended one HOP session during the school year. Parent participation was low (3.2% of HOP sessions). Low nurse workload, low school poverty, higher grade level, higher BMI percentile, and chronic illness diagnosis were associated with student enrollment in HOP. CONCLUSIONS: As currently delivered, HOP is not likely to be efficacious. Lessons learned from this evaluation are applicable to future nurse-led obesity interventions. PRACTICE IMPLICATIONS: Prior to implementing a school nurse-led obesity intervention, nursing workload and available support must be carefully considered. Interventions should be designed to facilitate (and possibly require) parent involvement. Nurses who deliver obesity interventions may require additional training in obesity treatment. With attention to these lessons learned, evidence-based school nurse-led obesity interventions can be developed.

Why the Neighborhood Social Environment Is Critical in Obesity Prevention.

The continuing obesity epidemic in the USA calls for the examination of antecedents to the well-known risk factors of physical activity and diet. The neighborhood built environment has been extensively studied in relation to obesity noting an increased risk of development and prevalence of obesity in relation to numerous built environment characteristics (lack of green spaces, higher number of fast food restaurants, low walkability indices). The neighborhood social environment, however, has been less extensively studied but is perhaps an equally important component of the neighborhood environment. The neighborhood social environment, particularly constructs of social capital, collective efficacy, and crime, is associated with obesity among both adults and children. Several studies have identified physical activity as a potential pathway of the neighborhood social environment and obesity association. Further work on social networks and norms and residential segregation, as well as the examination of dietary behaviors and mental health as potential mediating pathways, is necessary. Given the existing evidence, intervening on the neighborhood social environment may prove to be an effective target for the prevention on obesity. Intervention studies that promote healthy behaviors and prevent obesity while addressing aspects of the neighborhood social environment are necessary to better identify targets for obesity prevention.

Economic evaluation of registered nurse tenure on nursing home resident outcomes.

PURPOSE: Little is known about the economic implications of nursing home (NH) registered nurse (RN) tenure on resident outcomes. This study evaluated the cost-effectiveness of two nurse workforce scenarios focusing on RN tenure (high versus low), and the associated transfers from NH to the hospital. METHODS: A decision tree was constructed to compare the incremental costs and effects of RN tenure scenarios on NH resident transfers to the hospital under two NH staffing scenarios: high versus low levels of RN tenure. Three outcomes were modeled: 1) dollars per hospitalization avoided, 2) dollars per hospitalization and death avoided, and 3) dollars per death avoided. RESULTS: The total costs of care for the low tenure scenario were $34,108 per month compared to the high tenure scenario at $29,442 per month. Effectiveness of the high tenure was greater across all 3 outcomes (incremental effectiveness ranged from 0.925 to 0.974 depending on outcome), indicating that high tenure was the dominant strategy (that is less costly and more effective). CONCLUSIONS: Higher RN tenure was a dominant strategy across the 3 outcomes. This was a fairly robust finding despite the variations in the model and uncertainty in the input parameters. Aligning quality outcomes with cost effectiveness is imperative to driving the direction of health policy in the United States. Better prevention of hospitalizations by having an experienced RN workforce will not only improve resident quality of care but will allow NHs to realize the value of retaining a skilled workforce.

Diet-beverage consumption and caloric intake among US adults, overall and by body weight.

OBJECTIVES: We examined national patterns in adult diet-beverage consumption and caloric intake by body-weight status. METHODS: We analyzed 24-hour dietary recall with National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 1999-2010 data (adults aged ≥ 20 years; n = 23 965). RESULTS: Overall, 11% of healthy-weight, 19% of overweight, and 22% of obese adults drink diet beverages. Total caloric intake was higher among adults consuming sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) compared with diet beverages (2351 kcal/day vs 2203 kcal/day; P = .005). However, the difference was only significant for healthy-weight adults (2302 kcal/day vs 2095 kcal/day; P < .001). Among overweight and obese adults, calories from solid-food consumption were higher among adults consuming diet beverages compared with SSBs (overweight: 1965 kcal/day vs 1874 kcal/day; P = .03; obese: 2058 kcal/day vs 1897 kcal/day; P < .001). The net increase in daily solid-food consumption associated with diet-beverage consumption was 88 kilocalories for overweight and 194 kilocalories for obese adults. CONCLUSIONS: Overweight and obese adults drink more diet beverages than healthy-weight adults and consume significantly more solid-food calories and a comparable total calories than overweight and obese adults who drink SSBs. Heavier US adults who drink diet beverages will need to reduce solid-food calorie consumption to lose weight.

Cost-effectiveness of chemoprevention with proton pump inhibitors in Barrett's esophagus.

BACKGROUND: Proton pump inhibitors (PPIs) may reduce the risk of esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC) in patients with Barrett's esophagus. PPIs are prescribed for virtually all patients with Barrett's esophagus, irrespective of the presence of reflux symptoms, and represent a de facto chemopreventive agent in this population. However, long-term PPI use has been associated with several adverse effects, and the cost-effectiveness of chemoprevention with PPIs has not been evaluated. AIM: The purpose of this study was to assess the cost-effectiveness of PPIs for the prevention of EAC in Barrett's esophagus without reflux. METHODS: We designed a state-transition Markov microsimulation model of a hypothetical cohort of 50-year-old white men with Barrett's esophagus. We modeled chemoprevention with PPIs or no chemoprevention, with endoscopic surveillance for all treatment arms. Outcome measures were life-years, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), incident EAC cases and deaths, costs, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios. RESULTS: Assuming 50% reduction in EAC, chemoprevention with PPIs was a cost-effective strategy compared to no chemoprevention. In our model, administration of PPIs cost $23,000 per patient and resulted in a gain of 0.32 QALYs for an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $12,000/QALY. In sensitivity analyses, PPIs would be cost-effective at $50,000/QALY if they reduce EAC risk by at least 19%. CONCLUSIONS: Chemoprevention with PPIs in patients with Barrett's esophagus without reflux is cost-effective if PPIs reduce EAC by a minimum of 19%. The identification of subgroups of Barrett's esophagus patients at increased risk for progression would lead to more cost-effective strategies for the prevention of esophageal adenocarcinoma.

Using stress testing to guide primary prevention of coronary heart disease among intermediate-risk patients: a cost-effectiveness analysis.

BACKGROUND: Noninvasive stress testing might guide the use of aspirin and statins for primary prevention of coronary heart disease, but it is unclear if such a strategy would be cost effective. METHODS AND RESULTS: We compared the status quo, in which the current national use of aspirin and statins was simulated, with 3 other strategies: (1) full implementation of Adult Treatment Panel III guidelines, (2) a treat-all strategy in which all intermediate-risk persons received statins (men and women) and aspirin (men only), and (3) a test-and-treat strategy in which all persons with an intermediate risk of coronary heart disease underwent stress testing and those with a positive test were treated with high-intensity statins (men and women) and aspirin (men only). Healthcare costs, coronary heart disease events, and quality-adjusted life years from 2011 to 2040 were projected. Under a variety of assumptions, the treat-all strategy was the most effective and least expensive strategy. Stress electrocardiography was more effective and less expensive than other test-and-treat strategies, but it was less expensive than treat all only if statin cost exceeded $3.16/pill or if testing increased adherence from <22% to >75%. However, stress electrocardiography could be cost effective in persons initially nonadherent to the treat-all strategy if it raised their adherence to 5% and cost saving if it raised their adherence to 13%. CONCLUSIONS: When generic high-potency statins are available, noninvasive cardiac stress testing to target preventive medications is not cost effective unless it substantially improves adherence.

What is the cost-effectiveness of menu calorie labelling on reducing obesity-associated cancer burdens? An economic evaluation of a federal policy intervention among 235 million adults in the USA.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the impact of menu calorie labelling on reducing obesity-associated cancer burdens in the USA. DESIGN: Cost-effectiveness analysis using a Markov cohort state-transition model. SETTING: Policy intervention. PARTICIPANTS: A modelled population of 235 million adults aged ≥20 years in 2015-2016. INTERVENTIONS: The impact of menu calorie labelling on reducing 13 obesity-associated cancers among US adults over a lifetime was evaluated for: (1) effects on consumer behaviours; and (2) additional effects on industry reformulation. The model integrated nationally representative demographics, calorie intake from restaurants, cancer statistics and estimates on associations of policy with calorie intake, dietary change with body mass index (BMI) change, BMI with cancer rates, and policy and healthcare costs from published literature. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Averted new cancer cases and cancer deaths and net costs (in 2015 US$) among the total population and demographic subgroups were determined. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios from societal and healthcare perspectives were assessed and compared with the threshold of US$150 000 per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained. Probabilistic sensitivity analyses incorporated uncertainty in input parameters and generated 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). RESULTS: Considering consumer behaviour alone, this policy was associated with 28 000 (95% UI 16 300 to 39 100) new cancer cases and 16 700 (9610 to 23 600) cancer deaths averted, 111 000 (64 800 to 158 000) QALYs gained, and US$1480 (884 to 2080) million saved in cancer-related medical costs among US adults. The policy was associated with net cost savings of US$1460 (864 to 2060) million and US$1350 (486 to 2260) million from healthcare and societal perspectives, respectively. Additional industry reformulation would substantially increase policy impact. Greater health gains and cost savings were predicted among young adults, Hispanic and non-Hispanic Black individuals. CONCLUSIONS: Study findings suggest that menu calorie labelling is associated with lower obesity-related cancer burdens and reduced healthcare costs. Policymakers may prioritise nutrition policies for cancer prevention in the USA.

Health and economic burden of the projected obesity trends in the USA and the UK.

Rising prevalence of obesity is a worldwide health concern because excess weight gain within populations forecasts an increased burden from several diseases, most notably cardiovascular diseases, diabetes, and cancers. In this report, we used a simulation model to project the probable health and economic consequences in the next two decades from a continued rise in obesity in two ageing populations--the USA and the UK. These trends project 65 million more obese adults in the USA and 11 million more obese adults in the UK by 2030, consequently accruing an additional 6-8·5 million cases of diabetes, 5·7-7·3 million cases of heart disease and stroke, 492,000-669,000 additional cases of cancer, and 26-55 million quality-adjusted life years forgone for USA and UK combined. The combined medical costs associated with treatment of these preventable diseases are estimated to increase by $48-66 billion/year in the USA and by £1·9-2 billion/year in the UK by 2030. Hence, effective policies to promote healthier weight also have economic benefits.

Quantification of the effect of energy imbalance on bodyweight.

Obesity interventions can result in weight loss, but accurate prediction of the bodyweight time course requires properly accounting for dynamic energy imbalances. In this report, we describe a mathematical modelling approach to adult human metabolism that simulates energy expenditure adaptations during weight loss. We also present a web-based simulator for prediction of weight change dynamics. We show that the bodyweight response to a change of energy intake is slow, with half times of about 1 year. Furthermore, adults with greater adiposity have a larger expected weight loss for the same change of energy intake, and to reach their steady-state weight will take longer than it would for those with less initial body fat. Using a population-averaged model, we calculated the energy-balance dynamics corresponding to the development of the US adult obesity epidemic. A small persistent average daily energy imbalance gap between intake and expenditure of about 30 kJ per day underlies the observed average weight gain. However, energy intake must have risen to keep pace with increased expenditure associated with increased weight. The average increase of energy intake needed to sustain the increased weight (the maintenance energy gap) has amounted to about 0·9 MJ per day and quantifies the public health challenge to reverse the obesity epidemic.

Effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of blood pressure screening in adolescents in the United States.

OBJECTIVE: To compare the long-term effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of 3 approaches to managing elevated blood pressure (BP) in adolescents in the United States: no intervention, "screen-and-treat," and population-wide strategies to lower the entire BP distribution. STUDY DESIGN: We used a simulation model to combine several data sources to project the lifetime costs and cardiovascular outcomes for a cohort of 15-year-old U.S. adolescents under different BP approaches and conducted cost-effectiveness analysis. We obtained BP distributions from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 1999-2004 and used childhood-to-adult longitudinal correlation analyses to simulate the tracking of BP. We then used the coronary heart disease policy model to estimate lifetime coronary heart disease events, costs, and quality-adjusted life years (QALY). RESULTS: Among screen-and-treat strategies, finding and treating the adolescents at highest risk (eg, left ventricular hypertrophy) was most cost-effective ($18000/QALY [boys] and $47000/QALY [girls]). However, all screen-and-treat strategies were dominated by population-wide strategies such as salt reduction (cost-saving [boys] and $650/QALY [girls]) and increasing physical education ($11000/QALY [boys] and $35000/QALY [girls]). CONCLUSIONS: Routine adolescents BP screening is moderately effective, but population-based BP interventions with broader reach could potentially be less costly and more effective for early cardiovascular disease prevention and should be implemented in parallel.

Effect of school district policy change on consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages among high school students, Boston, Massachusetts, 2004-2006.

INTRODUCTION: Consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages has increased among youth in recent decades, accounting for approximately 13% of total calories consumed. The Boston Public Schools passed a policy restricting sale of sugar-sweetened beverages in Boston schools in June 2004. The objective of this study was to determine whether high school students' consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages declined after this new policy was implemented. METHODS: We conducted a quasi-experimental evaluation by using data on consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages by public high school students who participated in the Boston Youth Survey during February through April 2004 and February through April 2006 (N = 2,033). We compared the observed change with national trends by using data from the 2003-2004 and 2005-2006 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES). Regression methods were adjusted for student demographics. RESULTS: On average, Boston's public high school students reported daily consumption of 1.71 servings of sugar-sweetened beverages in 2004 and 1.38 servings in 2006. Regression analyses showed significant declines in consumption of soda (-0.16 servings), other sugar-sweetened beverages (-0.14 servings), and total sugar-sweetened beverages (-0.30 servings) between 2004 and 2006 (P < .001 for all). NHANES indicated no significant nationwide change in adolescents' consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages between 2003-2004 and 2005-2006. DISCUSSION: Data from Boston youth indicated significant reductions in consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages, which coincided with a policy change restricting sale of sugar-sweetened beverages in schools. Nationally, no evidence was found for change in consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages among same-aged youth, indicating that implementing policies that restrict the sale of sugar-sweetened beverages in schools may be a promising strategy to reduce adolescents' intake of unnecessary calories.

Introducing the MAVEN Leadership Training Initiative to diversify the scientific workforce.

Addressing gender and racial-ethnic disparities at all career stages is a priority for the research community. In this article, we focus on efforts to encourage mid-career women, particularly women of color, to move into leadership positions in science and science policy. We highlight the need to strengthen leadership skills for the critical period immediately following promotion to associate/tenured professor - when formal career development efforts taper off while institutional demands escalate - and describe a program called MAVEN that has been designed to teach leadership skills to mid-career women scientists, particularly those from underrepresented groups.