The Noninvasive Ventilation Outcomes (NIVO) score: prediction of in-hospital mortality in exacerbations of COPD requiring assisted ventilation.

INTRODUCTION: Acute exacerbations of COPD (AECOPD) complicated by acute (acidaemic) hypercapnic respiratory failure (AHRF) requiring ventilation are common. When applied appropriately, ventilation substantially reduces mortality. Despite this, there is evidence of poor practice and prognostic pessimism. A clinical prediction tool could improve decision making regarding ventilation, but none is routinely used. METHODS: Consecutive patients admitted with AECOPD and AHRF treated with assisted ventilation (principally noninvasive ventilation) were identified in two hospitals serving differing populations. Known and potential prognostic indices were identified a priori. A prediction tool for in-hospital death was derived using multivariable regression analysis. Prospective, external validation was performed in a temporally separate, geographically diverse 10-centre study. The trial methodology adhered to TRIPOD (Transparent Reporting of a Multivariable Prediction Model for Individual Prognosis or Diagnosis) recommendations. RESULTS: Derivation cohort: n=489, in-hospital mortality 25.4%; validation cohort: n=733, in-hospital mortality 20.1%. Using six simple categorised variables (extended Medical Research Council Dyspnoea score 1-4/5a/5b, time from admission to acidaemia >12 h, pH <7.25, presence of atrial fibrillation, Glasgow coma scale ≤14 and chest radiograph consolidation), a simple scoring system with strong prediction of in-hospital mortality is achieved. The resultant Noninvasive Ventilation Outcomes (NIVO) score had area under the receiver operating curve of 0.79 and offers good calibration and discrimination across stratified risk groups in its validation cohort. DISCUSSION: The NIVO score outperformed pre-specified comparator scores. It is validated in a generalisable cohort and works despite the heterogeneity inherent to both this patient group and this intervention. Potential applications include informing discussions with patients and their families, aiding treatment escalation decisions, challenging pessimism and comparing risk-adjusted outcomes across centres.

Prospective validation of the RAPID clinical risk prediction score in adult patients with pleural infection: the PILOT study.

BACKGROUND: Over 30% of adult patients with pleural infection either die and/or require surgery. There is no robust means of predicting at baseline presentation which patients will suffer a poor clinical outcome. A validated risk prediction score would allow early identification of high-risk patients, potentially directing more aggressive treatment thereafter. OBJECTIVES: To prospectively assess a previously described risk score (the RAPID (Renal (urea), Age, fluid Purulence, Infection source, Dietary (albumin)) score) in adults with pleural infection. METHODS: Prospective observational cohort study that recruited patients undergoing treatment for pleural infection. RAPID score and risk category were calculated at baseline presentation. The primary outcome was mortality at 3 months; secondary outcomes were mortality at 12 months, length of hospital stay, need for thoracic surgery, failure of medical treatment and lung function at 3 months. RESULTS: Mortality data were available in 542 out of 546 patients recruited (99.3%). Overall mortality was 10% at 3 months (54 out of 542) and 19% at 12 months (102 out of 542). The RAPID risk category predicted mortality at 3 months. Low-risk mortality (RAPID score 0-2): five out of 222 (2.3%, 95% CI 0.9 to 5.7%); medium-risk mortality (RAPID score 3-4): 21 out of 228 (9.2%, 95% CI 6.0 to 13.7%); and high-risk mortality (RAPID score 5-7): 27 out of 92 (29.3%, 95% CI 21.0 to 39.2%). C-statistics for the scores at 3 months and 12 months were 0.78 (95% CI 0.71-0.83) and 0.77 (95% CI 0.72-0.82), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The RAPID score stratifies adults with pleural infection according to increasing risk of mortality and should inform future research directed at improving outcomes in this patient population.

Utility of overnight pulse oximetry and heart rate variability analysis to screen for sleep-disordered breathing in chronic heart failure.

BACKGROUND: Sleep-disordered breathing (SDB) is under diagnosed in chronic heart failure (CHF). Screening with simple monitors may increase detection of SDB in a cardiology setting. This study aimed to evaluate the accuracy of heart rate variability analysis and overnight pulse oximetry for diagnosis of SDB in patients with CHF. METHODS: 180 patients with CHF underwent simultaneous polysomnography, ambulatory electrocardiography and wrist-worn overnight pulse oximetry. SDB was defined as an apnoea-hypopnoea index ≥15/h. To identify SDB from the screening tests, the per cent very low frequency increment (%VLFI) component of heart rate variability was measured with a pre-specified cutoff ≥2.23%, and the 3% oxygen desaturation index was measured with a pre-specified cutoff >7.5 desaturations/h. RESULTS: 173 patients with CHF had adequate sleep study data; SDB occurred in 77 (45%) patients. Heart rate variability was measurable in 78 (45%) patients with area under the %VLFI receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.50. At the ≥2.23% cutoff, %VLFI sensitivity was 58% and specificity was 48%. The 3% oxygen desaturation index was measurable in 171 (99%) patients with area under the curve of 0.92. At the pre-specified cutoff of >7.5 desaturations/h, the 3% oxygen desaturation index had a sensitivity of 97%, specificity of 32%, negative likelihood ratio of 0.08 and positive likelihood ratio of 1.42. Diagnostic accuracy was increased using a cutoff of 12.5 desaturations/h, with sensitivity of 93% and specificity of 73%. CONCLUSIONS: The high sensitivity and low negative likelihood ratio of the 3% oxygen desaturation index indicates that pulse oximetry would be of use as a simple screening test to rule out SDB in patients with CHF in a cardiology setting. The %VLFI component of heart rate variability is not suitable for detection of SDB in CHF.

The impact of obesity on oxygen desaturation during sleep-disordered breathing.

RATIONALE: Obesity increases the risk and severity of sleep-disordered breathing. The degree to which excess body weight contributes to blood oxygen desaturation during hypopneic and apneic events has not been comprehensively characterized. OBJECTIVES: To quantify the association between excess body weight and oxygen desaturation during sleep-disordered breathing. METHODS: A total of 750 adult participants in the Wisconsin Sleep Cohort Study were assessed for body mass index (BMI) (kg/m(2)) and sleep-disordered breathing. The amount of Sa(O(2)), duration, and other characteristics of 37,473 observed breathing events were measured during polysomnography studies. A mixed-effects linear regression model estimated the association of blood oxygen desaturation with participant-level characteristics, including BMI, gender, and age, and event-level characteristics, including baseline Sa(O(2)), change in Vt, event duration, sleep state, and body position. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: BMI was positively associated with oxygen desaturation severity independent of age, gender, sleeping position, baseline Sa(O(2)), and event duration. BMI interacted with sleep state such that BMI predicted greater desaturation in rapid eye movement (REM) sleep than in non-REM sleep. Each increment of 10 kg/m(2) BMI predicted a 1.0% (SE, 0.2%) greater mean blood oxygen desaturation for persons in REM sleep experiencing hypopnea events associated with 80% Vt reductions. CONCLUSIONS: Excess body weight is an important predictor of the severity of blood oxygen desaturation during apnea and hypopnea events, potentially exacerbating the impact of sleep-disordered breathing in obese patients.

Investigation of the link between fluid shift and airway collapsibility as a mechanism for obstructive sleep apnea in congestive heart failure.

The increased prevalence of obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) in congestive heart failure (CHF) may be associated with rostral fluid shift. We investigated the effect of overnight rostral fluid shift on pharyngeal collapsibility (Pcrit), pharyngeal caliber (APmean), and apnea-hypopnea index (AHI) in CHF patients. Twenty-three optimally treated systolic CHF patients were studied. Neck circumference was measured immediately prior to sleep in the evening and immediately after waking in the morning as a marker of rostral fluid shift. Pcrit was measured during sleep, early and late in the night. APmean was measured using acoustic reflection at the same times as neck circumference measurements. 15/23 CHF patients experienced an overnight increase in neck circumference; overall neck circumference significantly increased overnight (mean±SD, evening: 41.7 ± 3.2 cm; morning: 42.3 ± 3.1 cm; P = 0.03). Pcrit increased significantly overnight (early-night: -3.8 ± 3.3 cmH2O; late-night: -2.6 ± 3.0 cmH2O; P = 0.03) and APmean decreased (evening: 4.2 ± 1.3 cm2; morning: 3.7 ± 1.3 cm2; P = 0.006). The total AHI correlated with neck circumference (r = 0.4; P = 0.04) and Pcrit (r = 0.5; P = 0.01). APmean correlated with neck circumference (r = -0.47; P = 0.02). There was no significant change in AHI between the first and second half of the night (first-half: 12.9 ± 12.4/h; second-half: 13.7 ± 13.3/h; P = 0.6). Overnight rostral fluid shift was associated with increased pharyngeal collapsibility and decreased pharyngeal caliber during sleep in CHF patients. Rostral fluid shift may be an important mechanism of OSA in this patient group.

The effect of respiratory scoring on the diagnosis and classification of sleep disordered breathing in chronic heart failure.

STUDY OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the effect of respiratory scoring criteria on diagnosis and classification of sleep disordered breathing (SDB) in chronic heart failure (CHF). DESIGN: Cross-sectional observational study. SETTING: Heart failure and general cardiology clinics at two London hospitals. PATIENTS OR PARTICIPANTS: One hundred eighty stable patients with CHF and a median age of 69.6 y, 86% male. INTERVENTIONS: SDB was diagnosed by polysomnography. The apnea-hypopnea index (AHI) was initially scored using a conservative hypopnea definition of a ≥ 50% decrease in nasal airflow with a ≥ 4% oxygen desaturation. The AHI was rescored with hypopnea defined according to the American Academy of Sleep Medicine (AASM) alternative scoring rule, requiring an associated ≥ 3% oxygen desaturation or arousal. SDB was defined as AHI ≥ 15/h. Diagnosis and classification of SDB as obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) or central sleep apnea (CSA) with each rule were compared. The effect of mixed apneas on classification of SDB as CSA or OSA was also investigated. MEASUREMENTS AND RESULTS: Median AHI increased from 9.3/h to 13.8/h (median difference 4.6/h) when the AASM alternative rule was used to score hypopneas. SDB prevalence increased from 29% to 46% with the alternative scoring rule (P < 0.001). Classification of SDB as OSA or CSA was not significantly altered by hypopnea scoring rules or the categorization of mixed apneas. CONCLUSION: Hypopnea scoring rules can significantly influence the apnea-hypopnea index and diagnosis of sleep disordered breathing in chronic heart failure but do not alter the classification as obstructive sleep apnea or central sleep apnea. Standardization of hypopnea scoring rules is important to ensure consistency in diagnosis of sleep disordered breathing in chronic heart failure patients.