Atmospheric forcing dominates winter Barents-Kara sea ice variability on interannual to decadal time scales.

The last two decades have seen a dramatic decline and strong year-to-year variability in Arctic winter sea ice, especially in the Barents-Kara Sea (BKS), changes that have been linked to extreme midlatitude weather and climate. It has been suggested that these changes in winter sea ice arise largely from a combined effect of oceanic and atmospheric processes, but the relative importance of these processes is not well established. Here, we explore the role of atmospheric circulation patterns on BKS winter sea ice variability and trends using observations and climate model simulations. We find that BKS winter sea ice variability is primarily driven by a strong anticyclonic anomaly over the region, which explains more than 50% of the interannual variability in BKS sea-ice concentration (SIC). Recent intensification of the anticyclonic anomaly has warmed and moistened the lower atmosphere in the BKS by poleward transport of moist-static energy and local processes, resulting in an increase in downwelling longwave radiation. Our results demonstrate that the observed BKS winter sea-ice variability is primarily driven by atmospheric, rather than oceanic, processes and suggest a persistent role of atmospheric forcing in future Arctic winter sea ice loss.

Determinants of the ratio of actual to potential evapotranspiration.

A widely used approach for estimating actual evapotranspiration (AET) in hydrological and earth system models is to constrain potential evapotranspiration (PET) with a single empirical stress factor (Ω = AET/PET). Ω represents the water availability and is fundamentally linked to canopy-atmosphere coupling. However, the mean and seasonal variability of Ω in the models have rarely been evaluated against observations, and the model performances for different climates and biomes remain unclear. In this study, we first derived the observed Ω from 28 FLUXNET sites over North America during 2000-2007, which was then used to evaluate Ω in six large-scale model-based datasets. Our results confirm the importance of incorporating canopy height in the formulation of aerodynamic conductance in the case of forests. Furthermore, leaf area index (LAI) is central to the prediction of Ω and can be quantitatively linked to the partitioning between transpiration and soil evaporation (R2  = 0.43). The substantial differences between observed and model-based Ω in forests (range: 0.2~0.9) are highly related to the way these models estimated PET and the way they represented the responses of Ω to the environmental drivers, especially wind speed and LAI. This is the first assessment of Ω in models based on in situ observations. Our findings demonstrate that the observed Ω is useful for evaluating, validating, and optimizing the modeling of AET and thus of water and energy balances.

Climate-informed hydrologic modeling and policy typology to guide managed aquifer recharge.

Harvesting floodwaters to recharge depleted groundwater aquifers can simultaneously reduce flood and drought risks and enhance groundwater sustainability. However, deployment of this multibeneficial adaptation option is fundamentally constrained by how much water is available for recharge (WAFR) at present and under future climate change. Here, we develop a climate-informed and policy-relevant framework to quantify WAFR, its uncertainty, and associated policy actions. Despite robust and widespread increases in future projected WAFR in our case study of California (for 56/80% of subbasins in 2070-2099 under RCP4.5/RCP8.5), strong nonlinear interactions between diversion infrastructure and policy uncertainties constrain how much WAFR can be captured. To tap future elevated recharge potential through infrastructure expansion under deep uncertainties, we outline a novel robustness-based policy typology to identify priority areas of investment needs. Our WAFR analysis can inform effective investment decisions to adapt to future climate-fueled drought and flood risk over depleted aquifers, in California and beyond.

Acceleration of western Arctic sea ice loss linked to the Pacific North American pattern.

Recent rapid Arctic sea-ice reduction has been well documented in observations, reconstructions and model simulations. However, the rate of sea ice loss is highly variable in both time and space. The western Arctic has seen the fastest sea-ice decline, with substantial interannual and decadal variability, but the underlying mechanism remains unclear. Here we demonstrate, through both observations and model simulations, that the Pacific North American (PNA) pattern is an important driver of western Arctic sea-ice variability, accounting for more than 25% of the interannual variance. Our results suggest that the recent persistent positive PNA pattern has led to increased heat and moisture fluxes from local processes and from advection of North Pacific airmasses into the western Arctic. These changes have increased lower-tropospheric temperature, humidity and downwelling longwave radiation in the western Arctic, accelerating sea-ice decline. Our results indicate that the PNA pattern is important for projections of Arctic climate changes, and that greenhouse warming and the resultant persistent positive PNA trend is likely to increase Arctic sea-ice loss.

A global database of water vapor isotopes measured with high temporal resolution infrared laser spectroscopy.

The isotopic composition of water vapour provides integrated perspectives on the hydrological histories of air masses and has been widely used for tracing physical processes in hydrological and climatic studies. Over the last two decades, the infrared laser spectroscopy technique has been used to measure the isotopic composition of water vapour near the Earth's surface. Here, we have assembled a global database of high temporal resolution stable water vapour isotope ratios (δ18O and δD) observed using this measurement technique. As of March 2018, the database includes data collected at 35 sites in 15 Köppen climate zones from the years 2004 to 2017. The key variables in each dataset are hourly values of δ18O and δD in atmospheric water vapour. To support interpretation of the isotopologue data, synchronized time series of standard meteorological variables from in situ observations and ERA5 reanalyses are also provided. This database is intended to serve as a centralized platform allowing researchers to share their vapour isotope datasets, thus facilitating investigations that transcend disciplinary and geographic boundaries.