Rivaroxaban for Prevention of Thrombotic Events, Hospitalization, and Death in Outpatients With COVID-19: A Randomized Clinical Trial.

BACKGROUND: COVID-19 (coronavirus disease 2019) is associated with heightened risks of venous and arterial thrombosis and hospitalization due to respiratory failure. To assess whether prophylactic anticoagulation can safely reduce the frequency of venous and arterial thrombosis, hospitalization, and death in nonhospitalized patients with symptomatic COVID-19 and at least one thrombosis risk factor, we conducted the PREVENT-HD double-blind, placebo-controlled randomized trial (A Study of Rivaroxaban to Reduce the Risk of Major Venous and Arterial Thrombotic Events, Hospitalization and Death in Medically Ill Outpatients With Acute, Symptomatic COVID-19] Infection). METHODS: PREVENT-HD was conducted between August 2020 and April 2022 at 14 US integrated health care delivery networks. A virtual trial design used remote informed consent and clinical monitoring and facilitated data collection through electronic health record integration with a cloud-based research platform. Nonhospitalized patients with symptomatic COVID-19 and at least one thrombosis risk factor were enrolled and randomly assigned to either 10 mg of oral rivaroxaban or placebo daily for 35 days. The primary efficacy outcome was time to first occurrence of a composite of symptomatic venous thromboembolism, myocardial infarction, ischemic stroke, acute limb ischemia, non-central nervous system systemic arterial embolism, hospitalization, or death through day 35. The principal safety end point was International Society on Thrombosis and Hemostasis critical-site or fatal bleeding. The last study visit was on day 49. RESULTS: The study was terminated prematurely because of enrollment challenges and a lower-than-expected blinded pooled event rate. A total of 1284 patients underwent randomization with complete accrual of primary events through May 2022. No patients were lost to follow-up. The primary efficacy outcome occurred in 22 of 641 in the rivaroxaban group and 19 of 643 in the placebo group (3.4% versus 3.0%; hazard ratio, 1.16 [95% CI, 0.63-2.15]; P=0.63). No patient in either group experienced critical-site or fatal bleeding. One patient receiving rivaroxaban had a major bleed. CONCLUSIONS: The study was terminated prematurely after enrollment of 32% of planned accrual because of recruitment challenges and lower-than-expected event rate. Rivaroxaban prescribed for 35 days in nonhospitalized patients with symptomatic COVID-19 at risk for thrombosis did not appear to reduce a composite end point of venous and arterial thrombotic events, hospitalization, and death. REGISTRATION: URL: https://www. CLINICALTRIALS: gov; Unique identifier: NCT04508023.

Sex, Age, and Socioeconomic Differences in Nonfatal Stroke Incidence and Subsequent Major Adverse Outcomes.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Data about variations in stroke incidence and subsequent major adverse outcomes are essential to inform secondary prevention and prioritizing resources to those at the greatest risk of major adverse end points. We aimed to describe the age, sex, and socioeconomic differences in the rates of first nonfatal stroke and subsequent major adverse outcomes. METHODS: The cohort study used linked Clinical Practice Research Datalink and Hospital Episode Statistics data from the United Kingdom. The incidence rate (IR) ratio of first nonfatal stroke and subsequent major adverse outcomes (composite major adverse cardiovascular events, recurrent stroke, cardiovascular disease-related, and all-cause mortality) were calculated and presented by year, sex, age group, and socioeconomic status based on an individual's location of residence, in adults with incident nonfatal stroke diagnosis between 1998 and 2017. RESULTS: A total of 82 774 first nonfatal stroke events were recorded in either primary care or hospital data-an IR of 109.20 per 100 000 person-years (95% CI, 108.46-109.95). Incidence was significantly higher in women compared with men (IR ratio, 1.13 [95% CI, 1.12-1.15]; P<0.001). Rates adjusted for age and sex were higher in the lowest compared with the highest socioeconomic status group (IR ratio, 1.10 [95% CI, 1.08-1.13]; P<0.001). For subsequent major adverse outcomes, the overall incidence for major adverse cardiovascular event was 38.05 per 100 person-years (95% CI, 37.71-38.39) with a slightly higher incidence in women compared with men (38.42 versus 37.62; IR ratio, 1.02 [95% CI, 1.00-1.04]; P=0.0229). Age and socioeconomic status largely accounted for the observed higher incidence of adverse outcomes in women. CONCLUSIONS: In the United Kingdom, incidence of initial stroke and subsequent major adverse outcomes are higher in women, older populations, and people living in socially deprived areas.

Strategies for screening for familial hypercholesterolaemia in primary care and other community settings.

BACKGROUND: Familial hypercholesterolaemia is a common inherited condition that is associated with premature cardiovascular disease. The increased cardiovascular morbidity and mortality, resulting from high levels of cholesterol since birth, can be prevented by starting lipid-lowering therapy. However, the majority of patients in the UK and worldwide remain undiagnosed. Established diagnostic criteria in current clinical practice are the Simon-Broome and Dutch Lipid Clinical network criteria and patients are classified as having probable, possible or definite familial hypercholesterolaemia. OBJECTIVES: To assess the effectiveness of healthcare interventions strategies to systematically improve identification of familial hypercholesterolaemia in primary care and other community settings compared to usual care (incidental approaches to identify familial hypercholesterolaemia in primary care and other community settings). SEARCH METHODS: We searched the Cochrane Inborn Errors of Metabolism Trials Register. Date of last search: 13 September 2021. We also searched databases (Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL), Ovid MEDLINE, PubMed, Embase, CINAHL, Web of Science, and SCOPUS) as well as handsearching relevant conference proceedings, reference lists of included articles, and the grey literature. Date of last searches: 05 March 2020.  SELECTION CRITERIA: As per the Effective Practice and Organisation of Care (EPOC) Group guidelines, we planned to include randomised controlled trials (RCTs), cluster-RCTs and non-randomised studies of interventions (NRSI). Eligible NRSI were non-randomised controlled trials, prospective cohort studies, controlled before-and-after studies, and interrupted-time-series studies. We planned to selected studies with healthcare interventions strategies that aimed to systematically identify people with possible or definite clinical familial hypercholesterolaemia, in primary care and other community settings. These strategies would be compared with usual care or no intervention. We considered participants of any age from the general population who access primary care and other community settings. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: Two authors planned to independently select studies according to the inclusion criteria, to extract data and assess for risk of bias and the certainty of the evidence (according to the GRADE criteria). We contacted corresponding study authors in order to obtain further information for all the studies considered in the review. MAIN RESULTS: No eligible RCTs or NRSIs were identified for inclusion, however, we excluded 28 studies. AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: Currently, there are no RCTs or controlled NRSI evidence to determine the most appropriate healthcare strategy to systematically identify possible or definite clinical familial hypercholesterolaemia in primary care or other community settings. Uncontrolled before-and-after studies were identified, but were not eligible for inclusion. Further studies assessing healthcare strategies of systematic identification of familial hypercholesterolaemia need to be conducted with diagnosis confirmed by genetic testing or validated through clinical phenotype (or both).

Long-term body mass index changes in overweight and obese adults and the risk of heart failure, cardiovascular disease and mortality: a cohort study of over 260,000 adults in the UK.

BACKGROUND: Although obesity is a well-recognised risk factor for cardiovascular disease (CVD), the impact of long-term body mass index (BMI) changes in overweight or obese adults, on the risk of heart failure, CVD and mortality has not been quantified. METHODS: This population-based cohort study used routine UK primary care electronic health data linked to secondary care and death-registry records. We identified adults who were overweight or obese, free from CVD and who had repeated BMI measures. Using group-based trajectory modelling, we examined the BMI trajectories of these individuals and then determined incidence rates of CVD, heart failure and mortality associated with the different trajectories. Cox-proportional hazards regression determined hazards ratios for incident outcomes. RESULTS: 264,230 individuals (mean age 49.5 years (SD 12.7) and mean BMI 33.8 kg/m2 (SD 6.1)) were followed-up for a median duration of 10.9 years. Four BMI trajectories were identified, corresponding at baseline, with World Health Organisation BMI classifications for overweight, class-1, class-2 and class-3 obesity respectively. In all four groups, there was a small, stable upwards trajectory in BMI (mean BMI increase of 1.06 kg/m2 (± 3.8)). Compared with overweight individuals, class-3 obese individuals had hazards ratios (HR) of 3.26 (95% CI 2.98-3.57) for heart failure, HR of 2.72 (2.58-2.87) for all-cause mortality and HR of 3.31 (2.84-3.86) for CVD-related mortality, after adjusting for baseline demographic and cardiovascular risk factors. CONCLUSION: The majority of adults who are overweight or obese retain their degree of overweight or obesity over the long term. Individuals with stable severe obesity experience the worst heart failure, CVD and mortality outcomes. These findings highlight the high cardiovascular toll exacted by continuing failure to tackle obesity.

Correction to: The comorbidity burden of type 2 diabetes mellitus: patterns, clusters and predictions from a large English primary care cohort.

The original article [1] contains an omitted grant acknowledgement and affiliation as relates to the contribution of co-author, Rafael Perera-Salazar. As such, the following two amendments should apply to the original article.

The comorbidity burden of type 2 diabetes mellitus: patterns, clusters and predictions from a large English primary care cohort.

BACKGROUND: The presence of additional chronic conditions has a significant impact on the treatment and management of type 2 diabetes (T2DM). Little is known about the patterns of comorbidities in this population. The aims of this study are to quantify comorbidity patterns in people with T2DM, to estimate the prevalence of six chronic conditions in 2027 and to identify clusters of similar conditions. METHODS: We used the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) linked with the Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD) data to identify patients diagnosed with T2DM between 2007 and 2017. 102,394 people met the study inclusion criteria. We calculated the crude and age-standardised prevalence of 18 chronic conditions present at and after the T2DM diagnosis. We analysed longitudinally the 6 most common conditions and forecasted their prevalence in 2027 using linear regression. We used agglomerative hierarchical clustering to identify comorbidity clusters. These analyses were repeated on subgroups stratified by gender and deprivation. RESULTS: More people living in the most deprived areas had ≥ 1 comorbidities present at the time of diagnosis (72% of females; 64% of males) compared to the most affluent areas (67% of females; 59% of males). Depression prevalence increased in all strata and was more common in the most deprived areas. Depression was predicted to affect 33% of females and 15% of males diagnosed with T2DM in 2027. Moderate clustering tendencies were observed, with concordant conditions grouped together and some variations between groups of different demographics. CONCLUSIONS: Comorbidities are common in this population, and high between-patient variability in comorbidity patterns emphasises the need for patient-centred healthcare. Mental health is a growing concern, and there is a need for interventions that target both physical and mental health in this population.

Proactive Assessment of Obesity Risk during Infancy (ProAsk): a qualitative study of parents' and professionals' perspectives on an mHealth intervention.

BACKGROUND: Prevention of childhood obesity is a public health priority. Interventions that establish healthy growth trajectories early in life promise lifelong benefits to health and wellbeing. Proactive Assessment of Obesity Risk during Infancy (ProAsk) is a novel mHealth intervention designed to enable health professionals to assess an infant's risk of future overweight and motivate parental behaviour change to prevent childhood overweight and obesity. The aim of this study was to explore parents' and health professionals' experiences of the overweight risk communication and behaviour change aspects of this mHealth intervention. METHODS: The study was conducted in four economically deprived localities in the UK. Parents (N = 66) were recruited to the ProAsk feasibility study when their infant was 6-8 weeks old. Twenty two health visitors (HVs) used a hand-held tablet device to deliver ProAsk to parents when their infants were 3 months old. Parents (N = 12) and HVs (N = 15) were interviewed when infants in the study were 6 months old. Interview data were transcribed and analysed thematically using an inductive, interpretative approach. RESULTS: Four key themes were identified across both parent and health visitor data: Engaging and empowering with digital technology; Unfamiliar technology presents challenges and opportunity; Trust in the risk score; Resistance to targeting. Most participants found the interactivity and visual presentation of information on ProAsk engaging. Health visitors who were unfamiliar with mobile technology drew support from parents who were more confident using tablet devices. There was evidence of resistance to targeting infants at greatest risk of future overweight and obesity, and both parents and health visitors drew on a number of reasons why a higher than average overweight risk score might not apply to a particular infant. CONCLUSIONS: An mHealth intervention actively engaged parents, enabling them to take ownership of the process of seeking strategies to reduce infant risk of overweight. However, cognitive and motivational biases that prevent effective overweight risk communication are barriers to targeting an intervention at those infants most at risk. TRIAL REGISTRATION: NCT02314494 . Date registered 11th December 2014.

Preconception risk assessment for thalassaemia, sickle cell disease, cystic fibrosis and Tay-Sachs disease.

BACKGROUND: Globally, about five per cent of children are born with congenital or genetic disorders. The most common autosomal recessive conditions are thalassaemia, sickle cell disease, cystic fibrosis and Tay-Sachs disease, with higher carrier rates in specific patient populations. Identifying and counselling couples at genetic risk of the conditions before pregnancy enables them to make fully informed reproductive decisions, with some of these choices not being available if genetic counselling is only offered in an antenatal setting. This is an update of a previously published review. OBJECTIVES: To assess the effectiveness of systematic preconception genetic risk assessment to improve reproductive outcomes in women and their partners who are identified as carriers of thalassaemia, sickle cell disease, cystic fibrosis and Tay-Sachs disease in healthcare settings when compared to usual care. SEARCH METHODS: We searched the Cochrane Cystic Fibrosis and Genetic Disorders Group's Trials Registers. In addition, we searched for all relevant trials from 1970 (or the date at which the database was first available if after 1970) to date using electronic databases (MEDLINE, Embase, CINAHL, PsycINFO), clinical trial databases (National Institutes of Health, Clinical Trials Search portal of the World Health Organization, metaRegister of controlled clinical trials), and hand searching of key journals and conference abstract books from 1998 to date (European Journal of Human Genetics, Genetics in Medicine, Journal of Community Genetics). We also searched the reference lists of relevant articles, reviews and guidelines and also contacted subject experts in the field to request any unpublished or other published trials.Date of latest search of the registers: 20 June 2017.Date of latest search of all other sources: 16 November 2017. SELECTION CRITERIA: Any randomised or quasi-randomised controlled trials (published or unpublished) comparing reproductive outcomes of systematic preconception genetic risk assessment for thalassaemia, sickle cell disease, cystic fibrosis and Tay-Sachs disease when compared to usual care. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: We identified 25 papers, describing 16 unique trials which were potentially eligible for inclusion in the review. However, after assessment, no randomised controlled trials of preconception genetic risk assessment for thalassaemia, sickle cell disease, cystic fibrosis and Tay-Sachs disease were found. MAIN RESULTS: No randomised controlled trials of preconception genetic risk assessment for thalassaemia, sickle cell disease, cystic fibrosis and Tay-Sachs disease were included. One ongoing trial has been identified which may potentially eligible for inclusion once completed. AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: As no randomised controlled trials of preconception genetic risk assessment for thalassaemia, sickle cell disease, cystic fibrosis, or Tay-Sachs disease were found for inclusion in this review, the research evidence for current policy recommendations is limited to non-randomised studies.Information from well-designed, adequately powered, randomised trials is desirable in order to make more robust recommendations for practice. However, such trials must also consider the legal, ethical, and cultural barriers to implementation of preconception genetic risk assessment.

Systematic review of randomised controlled trials of interventions that aim to reduce the risk, either directly or indirectly, of overweight and obesity in infancy and early childhood.

The risk factors for childhood overweight and obesity are known and can be identified antenatally or during infancy, however, the majority of effective interventions are designed for older children. This review identified interventions designed to reduce the risk of overweight/obesity that were delivered antenatally or during the first 2 years of life, with outcomes reported from birth to 7 years of age. Six electronic databases were searched for papers reporting randomised controlled trials of interventions published from January 1990 to September 2013. A total of 35 eligible studies were identified, describing 27 unique trials of which 24 were behavioural and three were non-behavioural. The 24 behavioural trials were categorised by type of intervention: (1) nutritional and/or responsive feeding interventions targeted at parents of infants, which improved feeding practices and had some impact on child weight (n = 12); (2) breastfeeding promotion and lactation support for mothers, which had a positive effect on breastfeeding but not child weight (n = 5); (3) parenting and family lifestyle (n = 4); and (4) maternal health (n = 3) interventions that had some impact on feeding practices but not child weight. The non-behavioural trials comprised interventions manipulating formula milk composition (n = 3). Of these, lower/hydrolysed protein formula milk had a positive effect on weight outcomes. Interventions that aim to improve diet and parental responsiveness to infant cues showed most promise in terms of self-reported behavioural change. Despite the known risk factors, there were very few intervention studies for pregnant women that continue during infancy which should be a priority for future research.

Preconception risk assessment for thalassaemia, sickle cell disease, cystic fibrosis and Tay-Sachs disease.

BACKGROUND: Globally, about five per cent of children are born with congenital or genetic disorders. The most common autosomal recessive conditions are thalassaemia, sickle cell disease, cystic fibrosis and Tay-Sachs disease, with higher carrier rates in specific patient populations. Identifying and counselling couples at genetic risk of the conditions before pregnancy enables them to make fully informed reproductive decisions, with some of these choices not being available if genetic counselling is only offered in an antenatal setting. OBJECTIVES: To assess the effectiveness of systematic preconception genetic risk assessment to improve reproductive outcomes in women and their partners who are identified as carriers of thalassaemia, sickle cell disease, cystic fibrosis and Tay-Sachs disease in healthcare settings when compared to usual care. SEARCH METHODS: We searched the Cochrane Cystic Fibrosis and Genetic Disorders Group's Trials Registers. In addition, we searched for all relevant trials from 1970 (or the date at which the database was first available if after 1970) to date using electronic databases (MEDLINE, Embase, CINAHL, PsycINFO), clinical trial databases (National Institutes of Health, Clinical Trials Search portal of the World Health Organization, metaRegister of controlled clinical trials), and hand searching of key journals and conference abstract books from 1998 to date (European Journal of Human Genetics, Genetics in Medicine, Journal of Community Genetics). We also searched the reference lists of relevant articles, reviews and guidelines and also contacted subject experts in the field to request any unpublished or other published trials.Date of latest search of the registers: 25 June 2015.Date of latest search of all other sources: 10 December 2014. SELECTION CRITERIA: Any randomised or quasi-randomised control trials (published or unpublished) comparing reproductive outcomes of systematic preconception genetic risk assessment for thalassaemia, sickle cell disease, cystic fibrosis and Tay-Sachs disease when compared to usual care. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: We identified 19 papers, describing 13 unique trials which were potentially eligible for inclusion in the review. However, after assessment, no randomised controlled trials of preconception genetic risk assessment for thalassaemia, sickle cell disease, cystic fibrosis and Tay-Sachs disease were found. MAIN RESULTS: No randomised controlled trials of preconception genetic risk assessment for thalassaemia, sickle cell disease, cystic fibrosis and Tay-Sachs disease were found. AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: As no randomised controlled trials of preconception genetic risk assessment for thalassaemia, sickle cell disease, cystic fibrosis, or Tay-Sachs disease were found for inclusion in this review, the research evidence for current policy recommendations is limited to non-randomised studies.Information from well-designed, adequately powered, randomised trials is desirable in order to make more robust recommendations for practice. However, such trials must also consider the legal, ethical, and cultural barriers to implementation of preconception genetic risk assessment.

Association between Increased Risk of Pneumonia with ICS in COPD: A Continuous Variable Analysis of Patient Factors from the IMPACT Study.

INTRODUCTION: Despite the proven benefits of inhaled corticosteroid (ICS)-containing triple therapy for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), clinicians limit patient exposure to ICS due to the risk of pneumonia. However, there are multiple factors associated with the risk of pneumonia in patients with COPD. This post hoc analysis of IMPACT trial data aims to set the risks associated with ICS into a context of specific patient-related factors that contribute to the risk of pneumonia. METHODS: The 52-week, double-blind IMPACT trial randomized patients with symptomatic COPD and ≥1 exacerbation in the prior year 2:2:1 to once-daily fluticasone furoate (FF)/umeclidinium (UMEC)/vilanterol (VI), FF/VI or UMEC/VI. Annual rate of on-treatment pneumonias in the intent-to-treat population associated with age, body mass index (BMI), percent predicted forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV1) and blood eosinophil count (BEC) was evaluated. RESULTS: This analysis revealed that the annual rate of pneumonia showed the lowest risk at the age of 50 years. The 95% confidence intervals (CI) between ICS-containing and non-ICS containing treatments diverged in ages > 63 years, suggesting a significantly increased ICS-related risk in older patients. In contrast, the annual rate of pneumonia rose in both groups below BMI of 22.5 kg/m2, but above that, there was no relationship to pneumonia rate and no differential effect between the two groups. The relationship between BEC and pneumonia was flat up to > 300/µL cells with ICS-containing treatment and then rose. In contrast, the rate of pneumonia with non-ICS containing treatment appeared to increase at a lower level of BEC (~ 200/µL). CONCLUSIONS: There was little evidence of a differential effect of older age, lower BMI, lower FEV1 and BEC on the pneumonia rate between ICS-containing and non-ICS containing treatments. This analysis points to the need for a balanced approach to risk versus benefit in the use of ICS-containing treatments in COPD. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: IMPACT ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT02164513.

How does cholesterol burden change the case for investing in familial hypercholesterolaemia? A cost-effectiveness analysis.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: This study aimed to ascertain how the long-term benefits and costs of diagnosis and treatment of familial hypercholesterolaemia (FH) vary by prognostic factors and 'cholesterol burden', which is the effect of long-term exposure to low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) on cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk. METHODS: A new cost-effectiveness model was developed from the perspective of the UK National Health Service (NHS), informed by routine data from individuals with FH. The primary outcome was net health gain (i.e., health benefits net of the losses due to costs), expressed in quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) at the £15,000/QALY threshold. Prognostic factors included pre-treatment LDL-C, age, gender, and CVD history. RESULTS: If cholesterol burden is considered, diagnosis resulted in positive net health gain (i.e., it is cost-effective) in all individuals with pre-treatment LDL-C ≥ 4 mmol/L, and in those with pre-treatment LDL-C ≥ 2 mmol/L aged ≥50 years or who have CVD history. If cholesterol burden is not considered, diagnosis resulted in lower net health gain, but still positive in children aged 10 years with pre-treatment LDL-C ≥ 6 mmol/L and adults aged 30 years with pre-treatment LDL-C ≥ 4 mmol/L. CONCLUSIONS: Diagnosis and treatment of most people with FH results in large net health gains, particularly in those with higher pre-treatment LDL-C. Economic evaluations of FH interventions should consider the sensitivity of the study conclusions to cholesterol burden, particularly where interventions target younger patients, and explicitly consider prognostic factors such as pre-treatment LDL-C, age, and CVD history.

Antithrombotic Prophylaxis with Rivaroxaban in Patients with Prehospital COVID-19: A Meta-analysis of Two Placebo-Controlled Trials.

BACKGROUND: We conducted a prespecified meta-analysis of two randomized, placebo-controlled trials of rivaroxaban 10 mg daily in prehospital patients with acute coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Individually, the trials had limited power to detect a treatment effect due to recruitment stopping ahead of plan. MATERIAL AND METHODS: The statistical analysis plan for the meta-analysis was finalized before unblinding of PREVENT-HD, the larger of the two trials. Pooled risk ratios and pooled risk differences along with the two-sided 95% confidence intervals were calculated using random-effect models. RESULTS: Rivaroxaban did not reduce the occurrence of either the primary prespecified endpoint, a composite of symptomatic arterial and venous thromboembolism, myocardial infarction, ischemic stroke, acute limb ischemia, all-cause hospitalization, and all-cause mortality (risk difference: 0.0044; 95% confidence interval: -0.0263, 0.0175; p = 0.69 for pooled risk difference) or the secondary endpoint of all-cause hospitalization (p = 0.76). Although thrombotic events were infrequent, pooled analysis did reveal that rivaroxaban reduced arterial and venous thrombotic events (placebo 6 events, rivaroxaban 0 events; pooled risk difference: -0.0068; 95% confidence interval: -0.0132, -0.0006; p = 0.03). In the pooled studies, only one major bleeding event was observed in a rivaroxaban-allocated patient with no critical site or fatal bleeding events. CONCLUSION: Although this meta-analysis does not support antithrombotic prophylaxis with rivaroxaban in a broad prehospital population with acute COVID-19, the prevention of arterial and venous thrombotic events among rivaroxaban-allocated patients is consistent with the known thromboprophylactic effect of the drug in medically ill patients.

A population-based study exploring phenotypic clusters and clinical outcomes in stroke using unsupervised machine learning approach.

Individuals developing stroke have varying clinical characteristics, demographic, and biochemical profiles. This heterogeneity in phenotypic characteristics can impact on cardiovascular disease (CVD) morbidity and mortality outcomes. This study uses a novel clustering approach to stratify individuals with incident stroke into phenotypic clusters and evaluates the differential burden of recurrent stroke and other cardiovascular outcomes. We used linked clinical data from primary care, hospitalisations, and death records in the UK. A data-driven clustering analysis (kamila algorithm) was used in 48,114 patients aged ≥ 18 years with incident stroke, from 1-Jan-1998 to 31-Dec-2017 and no prior history of serious vascular events. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) for subsequent adverse outcomes, for each of the generated clusters. Adverse outcomes included coronary heart disease (CHD), recurrent stroke, peripheral vascular disease (PVD), heart failure, CVD-related and all-cause mortality. Four distinct phenotypes with varying underlying clinical characteristics were identified in patients with incident stroke. Compared with cluster 1 (n = 5,201, 10.8%), the risk of composite recurrent stroke and CVD-related mortality was higher in the other 3 clusters (cluster 2 [n = 18,655, 38.8%]: hazard ratio [HR], 1.07; 95% CI, 1.02-1.12; cluster 3 [n = 10,244, 21.3%]: HR, 1.20; 95% CI, 1.14-1.26; and cluster 4 [n = 14,014, 29.1%]: HR, 1.44; 95% CI: 1.37-1.50). Similar trends in risk were observed for composite recurrent stroke and all-cause mortality outcome, and subsequent recurrent stroke outcome. However, results were not consistent for subsequent risk in CHD, PVD, heart failure, CVD-related mortality, and all-cause mortality. In this proof of principle study, we demonstrated how a heterogenous population of patients with incident stroke can be stratified into four relatively homogenous phenotypes with differential risk of recurrent and major cardiovascular outcomes. This offers an opportunity to revisit the stratification of care for patients with incident stroke to improve patient outcomes.

Comorbidity clusters and in-hospital outcomes in patients admitted with acute myocardial infarction in the USA: A national population-based study.

BACKGROUND: The prevalence of multimorbidity in patients with acute myocardial infarction (AMI) is increasing. It is unclear whether comorbidities cluster into distinct phenogroups and whether are associated with clinical trajectories. METHODS: Survey-weighted analysis of the United States Nationwide Inpatient Sample (NIS) for patients admitted with a primary diagnosis of AMI in 2018. In-hospital outcomes included mortality, stroke, bleeding, and coronary revascularisation. Latent class analysis of 21 chronic conditions was used to identify comorbidity classes. Multivariable logistic and linear regressions were fitted for associations between comorbidity classes and outcomes. RESULTS: Among 416,655 AMI admissions included in the analysis, mean (±SD) age was 67 (±13) years, 38% were females, and 76% White ethnicity. Overall, hypertension, coronary heart disease (CHD), dyslipidaemia, and diabetes were common comorbidities, but each of the identified five classes (C) included ≥1 predominant comorbidities defining distinct phenogroups: cancer/coagulopathy/liver disease class (C1); least burdened (C2); CHD/dyslipidaemia (largest/referent group, (C3)); pulmonary/valvular/peripheral vascular disease (C4); diabetes/kidney disease/heart failure class (C5). Odds ratio (95% confidence interval [CI]) for mortality ranged between 2.11 (1.89-2.37) in C2 to 5.57 (4.99-6.21) in C1. For major bleeding, OR for C1 was 4.48 (3.78; 5.31); for acute stroke, ORs ranged between 0.75 (0.60; 0.94) in C2 to 2.76 (2.27; 3.35) in C1; for coronary revascularization, ORs ranged between 0.34 (0.32; 0.36) in C1 to 1.41 (1.30; 1.53) in C4. CONCLUSIONS: We identified distinct comorbidity phenogroups that predicted in-hospital outcomes in patients admitted with AMI. Some conditions overlapped across classes, driven by the high comorbidity burden. Our findings demonstrate the predictive value and potential clinical utility of identifying patients with AMI with specific comorbidity clustering.

Alternative cascade-testing protocols for identifying and managing patients with familial hypercholesterolaemia: systematic reviews, qualitative study and cost-effectiveness analysis.

Background: Cascade testing the relatives of people with familial hypercholesterolaemia is an efficient approach to identifying familial hypercholesterolaemia. The cascade-testing protocol starts with identifying an index patient with familial hypercholesterolaemia, followed by one of three approaches to contact other relatives: indirect approach, whereby index patients contact their relatives; direct approach, whereby the specialist contacts the relatives; or a combination of both direct and indirect approaches. However, it is unclear which protocol may be most effective. Objectives: The objectives were to determine the yield of cases from different cascade-testing protocols, treatment patterns, and short- and long-term outcomes for people with familial hypercholesterolaemia; to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of alternative protocols for familial hypercholesterolaemia cascade testing; and to qualitatively assess the acceptability of different cascade-testing protocols to individuals and families with familial hypercholesterolaemia, and to health-care providers. Design and methods: This study comprised systematic reviews and analysis of three data sets: PASS (PASS Software, Rijswijk, the Netherlands) hospital familial hypercholesterolaemia databases, the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD)-Hospital Episode Statistics (HES) linked primary-secondary care data set, and a specialist familial hypercholesterolaemia register. Cost-effectiveness modelling, incorporating preceding analyses, was undertaken. Acceptability was examined in interviews with patients, relatives and health-care professionals. Result: Systematic review of protocols: based on data from 4 of the 24 studies, the combined approach led to a slightly higher yield of relatives tested [40%, 95% confidence interval (CI) 37% to 42%] than the direct (33%, 95% CI 28% to 39%) or indirect approaches alone (34%, 95% CI 30% to 37%). The PASS databases identified that those contacted directly were more likely to complete cascade testing (p < 0.01); the CPRD-HES data set indicated that 70% did not achieve target treatment levels, and demonstrated increased cardiovascular disease risk among these individuals, compared with controls (hazard ratio 9.14, 95% CI 8.55 to 9.76). The specialist familial hypercholesterolaemia register confirmed excessive cardiovascular morbidity (standardised morbidity ratio 7.17, 95% CI 6.79 to 7.56). Cost-effectiveness modelling found a net health gain from diagnosis of -0.27 to 2.51 quality-adjusted life-years at the willingness-to-pay threshold of £15,000 per quality-adjusted life-year gained. The cost-effective protocols cascaded from genetically confirmed index cases by contacting first- and second-degree relatives simultaneously and directly. Interviews found a service-led direct-contact approach was more reliable, but combining direct and indirect approaches, guided by index patients and family relationships, may be more acceptable. Limitations: Systematic reviews were not used in the economic analysis, as relevant studies were lacking or of poor quality. As only a proportion of those with primary care-coded familial hypercholesterolaemia are likely to actually have familial hypercholesterolaemia, CPRD analyses are likely to underestimate the true effect. The cost-effectiveness analysis required assumptions related to the long-term cardiovascular disease risk, the effect of treatment on cholesterol and the generalisability of estimates from the data sets. Interview recruitment was limited to white English-speaking participants. Conclusions: Based on limited evidence, most cost-effective cascade-testing protocols, diagnosing most relatives, select index cases by genetic testing, with services directly contacting relatives, and contacting second-degree relatives even if first-degree relatives have not been tested. Combined approaches to contact relatives may be more suitable for some families. Future work: Establish a long-term familial hypercholesterolaemia cohort, measuring cholesterol levels, treatment and cardiovascular outcomes. Conduct a randomised study comparing different approaches to contact relatives. Study registration: This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42018117445 and CRD42019125775. Funding: This project was funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 27, No. 16. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Familial hypercholesterolaemia is an inherited condition that causes raised cholesterol levels from birth and increases risk of heart disease if left untreated. After someone in a family is found to have familial hypercholesterolaemia (called an index case), their close relatives need to be contacted and checked to see if they have familial hypercholesterolaemia, using genetic or cholesterol testing. This is called 'cascade testing'. We planned to find the most cost-effective and acceptable way to do this. The relatives could be contacted for testing by the index case (indirect approach), by a health-care professional (direct approach) or by a combination of both approaches. We found, based on looking at hospital records, that more relatives were tested if health-care professionals directly contacted relatives. In previous studies, slightly more relatives were tested for familial hypercholesterolaemia with a combination approach. Interviews with patients also suggested that the direct approach was the most effective, but the most acceptable and successful approach depends on family relationships: using one approach for some families and using both for other families. Furthermore, by looking at the health-care records of large numbers of patients, we confirmed that people with a recorded diagnosis of familial hypercholesterolaemia in general practice records have a much higher risk of heart disease than the general population, and this was especially so for those with previous heart disease and/or raised cholesterols levels when diagnosed. However, one-quarter of new patients with familial hypercholesterolaemia recorded in their records were not treated within 2 years, with less than one-third reaching recommended cholesterol levels. We used what we had learned to help us estimate the most cost-effective way to do cascade testing. This showed that if the health service directly contact all relatives simultaneously for further assessment, rather than the current approach whereby close (first-degree) relatives are contacted first, this was cost-effective and good value for money.

Identifying Patients with Bicuspid Aortic Valve Disease in UK Primary Care: A Case-Control Study and Prediction Model.

Bicuspid aortic valve disease (BAV) is the most common congenital heart condition, and early detection can improve outcomes for patients. In this case−control study, patients with a diagnosis of BAV were identified from their electronic primary-care records in the UK's Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD). Each case was propensity-score matched to up to five controls. The clinical features recorded before diagnosis were compared. The proposed clinical features shown to be associated with BAV (p < 0.05) were incorporated into a multivariable regression model. We identified 2898 cases. The prevalence of BAV in the CPRD was 1 in 5181, significantly lower than expected, suggesting that diagnosis and/or recording could be improved. The following biologically plausible clinical features were associated with a subsequent diagnosis of BAV: palpitations (OR: 2.86 (95% CI: 1.60, 3.16)), atrial fibrillation (AF) (OR: 2.25 (95% CI: 1.60, 3.16)) and hypertension (OR: 1.72 (1.48, 2.00)). The best model had an AUC of 0.669 (95% CI: 0.658 to 0.680), a positive predictive value (PPV) of 5.9% (95% CI: 4.0% to 8.7%) and a negative predictive value (NPV) of 99% (95% CI: 99% to 99%) at a population prevalence of 1%. This study indicates that palpitations, hypertension and AF should trigger a clinical suspicion of BAV and assessment via echocardiography. It also demonstrates the potential to develop a prediction model for BAV to stratify patients for echocardiography screening.

Introducing genetic testing with case finding for familial hypercholesterolaemia in primary care: qualitative study of patient and health professional experience.

BACKGROUND: Familial hypercholesterolaemia (FH) is a common inherited condition causing elevated cholesterol, premature heart disease, and early death. Although FH can be effectively treated, over 80% of people with FH remain undetected. AIM: To explore patient and health professional experiences of introducing genetic testing with case finding for FH in primary care. DESIGN AND SETTING: Qualitative study in UK general practice. METHOD: Semi-structured interviews with a purposeful sample of 41 participants (24 patients and 17 health professionals) from eight practices, using an electronic case-finding tool (FAMCAT) to identify patients with higher likelihood of having FH and who were then offered diagnostic genetic testing in primary care. Data were analysed thematically. RESULTS: While prior awareness of FH was low, patients were unsurprised to be identified as being at risk, and positive about being offered genetic testing by their practice. Patients not found to have FH were relieved, although some felt frustrated that their high cholesterol lacked a clear cause. Those confirmed to have FH largely expected and accepted this outcome. Practitioners saw detection of FH as an important new opportunity for preventive care. They found the case-finding tool easy to apply and noted patients' high uptake of genetic testing. While they were comfortable referring appropriate patients for further specialist management, GPs sought clearer definition about responsibility for identification and long- term care of FH in future care pathways. CONCLUSION: Introducing genetic testing with electronic case finding for FH in primary care was positively experienced by patients and practitioners. Further development of this approach could help improve detection of FH in the general population.

Cost-Effectiveness of Screening Algorithms for Familial Hypercholesterolaemia in Primary Care.

Although familial hypercholesterolemia (FH) screening within primary care is considered cost-effective, which screening approach is cost-effective has not been established. This study determines the cost-effectiveness of six case-finding strategies for screening of electronic health records to identify index patients who have genetically confirmed monogenic FH in English primary care. A decision tree was constructed to represent pathways of care for each approach (FH Case Identification Tool (FAMCAT) versions 1 and 2, cholesterol screening, Dutch Lipid Clinic Network (DLCN), Simon Broome criteria, no active screening). Clinical effectiveness was measured as the number of monogenic FH cases identified. Healthcare costs for each algorithm were evaluated from an NHS England perspective over a 12 week time horizon. The primary outcome was the incremental cost per additional monogenic FH case identified (ICER). FAMCAT2 was found to dominate (cheaper and more effective) cholesterol and FAMCAT1 algorithms, and extendedly dominate DLCN. The ICER for FAMCAT2 vs. no active screening was 8111 GBP (95% CI: 4088 to 14,865), and for Simon Broome vs. FAMCAT2 was 74,059 GBP (95% CI: -1,113,172 to 1,697,142). Simon Broome found the largest number of FH cases yet required 102 genetic tests to identify one FH patient. FAMCAT2 identified fewer, but only required 23 genetic tests.