No-take marine protected areas enhance the benefits of kelp-forest restoration for fish but not fisheries.

Kelp habitat restoration is gaining traction as a management action to support recovery in areas affected by severe disturbances, thereby ensuring the sustainability of ecosystem services. Knowing when and where to restore is a major question. Using a single-species population model, we consider how restoring inside marine protected areas (MPAs) might benefit coastal fish populations and fisheries. We found that MPAs can greatly enhance the population benefits of restoration but at a small cost to fishery yields. Generally, restoring inside MPAs had a better overall gains-loss outcome, especially if the system is under high fishing pressure or severe habitat loss. However, restoring outside became preferable when predatory fish indirectly benefit kelp habitats. In either case, successful restoration actions may be difficult to detect in time-series data due to complex transient dynamics. We provide context for setting management goals and social expectations for the ecosystem service implications of restoration in MPAs.

Recruitment variability and sampling design interact to influence the detectability of protected area effects.

Correctly identifying the effects of a human impact on a system is a persistent challenge in ecology, driven partly by the variable nature of natural systems. This is particularly true in many marine fishery species, which frequently experience large temporal fluctuations in recruitment that produce interannual variations in populations. This variability complicates efforts to maintain stocks at management targets or detect the effects of rebuilding efforts. We address this challenge in the context of no-take marine reserves by exploring how variable larval recruitment could interact with the timing of reserve establishment and choice of sampling design to affect population dynamics and the detectability of reserve effects. To predict population changes in the years following a no-take reserve implementation, we first tested for periodicity in larval recruitment in an important U.S. Pacific coast recreational fishery species (kelp bass, Paralabrax clathratus) and then included that pattern in a population model. We also used this model to determine the detectability of population increases under alternative sampling approaches and minimum age sampled. Kelp bass larval recruitment in the Channel Islands, California, peaked every about six (major) and about two (minor) years. Our model showed that establishing a reserve during a peak or trough enhanced or delayed, respectively, the post-reserve population increases. However, establishing a reserve during a recruitment peak could obscure a failing reserve, that is, a reserve that is unable to secure longer-term metapopulation persistence. Recruitment peaks and troughs also interacted with sampling design to affect the detectability of reserve effects. Designs that compared inside-outside were the most robust to variable recruitment, but failed to capture whether the reserve has improved metapopulation growth. Designs that included a time element (e.g., before-after) are more suited to assessing reserve effectiveness, but were sensitive to recruitment variation and detectability can change year-to-year. Notably, detectability did not always increase monotonically with reserve age; the optimal time for detectability depended on the minimum age of organisms sampled and was greatest when the cohort of a major recruitment peak first appeared in the sampling. We encourage managers to account for variable recruitment when planning monitoring and assessment programs.

Pulse disturbances in age-structured populations: Life history predicts initial impact and recovery time.

Understanding population responses to discrete 'pulsed' environmental disturbances is essential to conservation and adaptive management. Populations of concern can be driven to low levels by disturbance, and understanding interspecific differences in recovery trajectories is necessary for evaluating management options. We analysed single-species models to investigate the demographic and management factors determining the two components of population 'resilience': the magnitude of initial impact on population abundance, and duration of the recovery time. We simulated age-structured populations with density-dependent recruitment, subjected to a pulse disturbance consisting of a period of increased mortality of either the juvenile age class or all age classes, and calculated both impact and return time. For illustration, we used demographic parameters from a suite of 16 fish species. We formulated the model as a renewal equation, allowing us to describe disturbance impacts mathematically as a convolution. We also included nonlinear dynamics, representing populations that recover to a steady state; this is more realistic (in most cases) than prior analyses of resilience in linear models without density-dependence. When the disturbance affected only one or a few young age-classes, longevity was the major life-history determinant of impact and recovery time. Shorter-lived species endured greater impacts when disturbed because each age class is a greater proportion of the population. However, shorter-lived species also had faster recovery times, for the same reason. When disturbance affected adult age-classes, the impact was more immediate and no longer affected by species' longevity, though the effect of longevity on recovery time remained. These results improve our understanding of interspecific differences in resilience and increase our ability to make predictions for adaptive management. Additionally, formulating the problem as a renewal equation and using mathematical convolutions allows us to quantify how disturbances with different time courses (not just an immediate, constant level of disturbance but gradually increasing or decreasing levels of disturbance) would have different effects on population resilience: delayed responses for species in which biomass is concentrated in older age classes, and for disturbances that become progressively more severe.

Entender las respuestas de la población a perturbaciones ambientales, específicamente a pulsadas individuales, es esencial para la conservación y la gestión adaptativa. Las poblaciones de interés pueden reducirse a niveles bajas debido a la perturbación, y es necesario entender las diferencias interespecíficas en las trayectorias de recuperación para evaluar las opciones de gestión. Analizamos modelos para especies individuales para investigar los factores demográficos y de gestión que determinan los dos componentes de la 'resiliencia' de la población: la magnitud del impacto inicial sobre la abundancia de la población y la duración del tiempo de recuperación. Simulamos poblaciones estructuradas por edad con reclutamiento que depende de la densidad, las sometimos a una perturbación pulsada que consiste en un período de mayor mortalidad del grupo etário juvenil o de todos los grupos etários, y calculamos tanto el impacto como el tiempo de retorno. A modo de ilustración, utilizamos parámetros demográficos de un conjunto de 16 especies de peces. Formulamos el modelo como una ecuación de renovación, lo que nos permite describir matemáticamente los impactos de las perturbaciones como una convolución. También incluimos dinámicas no lineales que representan poblaciones que se recuperan hacia un estado estable; esto es más realista (en la mayoría de los casos) que los análisis previos de resiliencia en modelos lineales sin la dependencia de la densidad. Cuando la perturbación ha afectado a uno o a algunos pocos grupos etários jóvenes, la longevidad fue el principal determinante de la historia de vida del impacto y el tiempo de recuperación. Las especies de vida más corta sufrieron mayores impactos cuando fueron perturbadas porque cada grupo etáreo representa una mayor proporción de la población. Sin embargo, las especies con vidas más cortas también tuvieron tiempos de recuperación más rápidos, por la misma razón. Cuando la perturbación afectó a los grupos etários adultos, el impacto fue más inmediato y ya no se vio afectado por la longevidad de las especies, aunque se mantuvo el efecto de la longevidad sobre el tiempo de recuperación. Estos resultados mejoran nuestra comprensión de las diferencias interespecíficas de la resiliencia y aumentan nuestra capacidad para hacer predicciones con fin a la gestión adaptativa. Además, formular el problema como una ecuación de renovación y usar convoluciones matemáticas nos permite cuantificar cómo las perturbaciones con distintos lapsos de tiempo (no solo un nivel de perturbación constante e inmediato, sino niveles de perturbación que aumentan o disminuyen gradualmente) tendrían diferentes efectos sobre la resiliencia de la población: respuestas tardías para especies en las que la biomasa se concentra en grupos etários de mayor edad y para perturbaciones que se vuelven progresivamente más severas.

Persistence of a reef fish metapopulation via network connectivity: theory and data.

Determining metapopulation persistence requires understanding both demographic rates and patch connectivity. Persistence is well understood in theory but has proved challenging to test empirically for marine and other species with high connectivity that precludes classic colonisation-extinction dynamics. Here, we assessed persistence for a yellowtail anemonefish (Amphiprion clarkii) metapopulation using 7 years of annual sampling data along 30 km of coastline. We carefully accounted for uncertainty in demographic rates. Despite stable population abundances through time and sufficient production of surviving offspring for replacement, the pattern of connectivity made the metapopulation unlikely to persist in isolation and reliant on immigrants from outside habitat. To persist in isolation, the metapopulation would need higher fecundity or to retain essentially all recruits produced. This assessment of persistence in a marine metapopulation shows that stable abundance alone does not indicate persistence, emphasising the necessity of assessing both demographic and connectivity processes to understand metapopulation dynamics.

Quantifying the statistical power of monitoring programs for marine protected areas.

Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) are increasingly established globally as a spatial management tool to aid in conservation and fisheries management objectives. Assessing whether MPAs are having the desired effects on populations requires effective monitoring programs. A cornerstone of an effective monitoring program is an assessment of the statistical power of sampling designs to detect changes when they occur. We present a novel approach to power assessment that combines spatial point process models, integral projection models (IPMs) and sampling simulations to assess the power of different sample designs across a network of MPAs. We focus on the use of remotely operated vehicle (ROV) video cameras as the sampling method, though the results could be extended to other sampling methods. We use empirical data from baseline surveys of an example indicator fish species across three MPAs in California, USA as a case study. Spatial models simulated time series of spatial distributions across sites that accounted for the effects of environmental covariates, while IPMs simulated expected trends over time in abundances and sizes of fish. We tested the power of different levels of sampling effort (i.e., the number of 500-m ROV transects) and temporal replication (every 1-3 yr) to detect expected post-MPA changes in fish abundance and biomass. We found that changes in biomass are detectable earlier than changes in abundance. We also found that detectability of MPA effects was higher in sites with higher initial densities. Increasing the sampling effort had a greater effect than increasing sampling frequency on the time taken to achieve high power. High power was best achieved by combining data from multiple sites. Our approach provides a powerful tool to explore the interaction between sampling effort, spatial distributions, population dynamics, and metrics for detecting change in previously fished populations.

Multigenerational and Transgenerational Effects of Environmentally Relevant Concentrations of Endocrine Disruptors in an Estuarine Fish Model.

Many pollutants cause endocrine disruption in aquatic organisms. While studies of the direct effects of toxicants on exposed organisms are commonplace, little is known about the potential for toxicant exposures in a parental (F0) generation to affect unexposed F1 or F2 generations (multigenerational and transgenerational effects, respectively), particularly in estuarine fishes. To investigate this possibility, we exposed inland silversides (Menidia beryllina) to environmentally relevant (low ng/L) concentrations of ethinylestradiol, bifenthrin, trenbolone, and levonorgestrel from 8 hpf to 21 dph. We then measured development, immune response, reproduction, gene expression, and DNA methylation for two subsequent generations following the exposure. Larval exposure (F0) to each compound resulted in negative effects in the F0 and F1 generations, and for ethinylestradiol and levonorgestrel, the F2 also. The specific endpoints that were responsive to exposure in each generation varied, but included increased incidence of larval deformities, reduced larval growth and survival, impaired immune function, skewed sex ratios, ovarian atresia, reduced egg production, and altered gene expression. Additionally, exposed fish exhibited differences in DNA methylation in selected genes, across all three generations, indicating epigenetic transfer of effects. These findings suggest that assessments across multiple generations are key to determining the full magnitude of adverse effects from contaminant exposure in early life.

Setting expected timelines of fished population recovery for the adaptive management of a marine protected area network.

Adaptive management of marine protected areas (MPAs) requires developing methods to evaluate whether monitoring data indicate that they are performing as expected. Modeling the expected responses of targeted species to an MPA network, with a clear timeline for those expectations, can aid in the development of a monitoring program that efficiently evaluates expectations over appropriate time frames. Here, we describe the expected trajectories in abundance and biomass following MPA implementation for populations of 19 nearshore fishery species in California. To capture the process of filling in the age structure truncated by fishing, we used age-structured population models with stochastic larval recruitment to predict responses to MPA implementation. We implemented both demographically open (high larval immigration) and closed (high self-recruitment) populations to model the range of possible trajectories as they depend on recruitment dynamics. From these simulations, we quantified the time scales over which anticipated increases in abundance and biomass inside MPAs would become statistically detectable. Predicted population biomass responses range from little change, for species with low fishing rates, to increasing by a factor of nearly seven, for species with high fishing rates before MPA establishment. Increases in biomass following MPA implementation are usually greater in both magnitude and statistical detectability than increases in abundance. For most species, increases in abundance would not begin to become detectable for at least 10 years after implementation. Overall, these results inform potential indicator metrics (biomass), potential indicator species (those with a high fishing : natural mortality ratio), and time frame (>10 yr) for MPA monitoring assessment as part of the adaptive management process.

Nonconsumptive effects of a predator weaken then rebound over time.

Predators can influence prey traits and behavior (nonconsumptive effects [NCEs]), often with cascading effects for basal resources and ecosystem function. But critiques of NCE experiments suggest that their duration and design produce results that describe the potential importance of NCEs rather than their actual importance. In light of these critiques, we re-evaluated a toadfish (predator), crab (prey), and oyster (resource) NCE-mediated trophic cascade. In a 4-month field experiment, we varied toadfish cue (NCE) and crab density (approximating variation in predator consumptive effects, CE). Toadfish initially benefitted oyster survival by causing crabs to reduce consumption. But this NCE weakened over time (possibly due to prey hunger), so that after 2 months, crab density (CE) dictated oyster survivorship, regardless of cue. However, the NCE ultimately re-emerged on reefs with a toadfish cue, increasing oyster survivorship. At no point did the effect of toadfish cue on mud crab foraging behavior alter oyster population growth or sediment organic matter on the reef, which is a measure of benthic-pelagic coupling. Instead, both decreased with increasing crab density. Thus, within a system shown to exhibit strong NCEs in short-term experiments (days) our study supported predictions from theoretical models: (a) within the generation of individual prey, the relative influence of NCEs appears to cycle over longer time periods (months); and (b) predator CEs, not NCEs, drive longer-term resource dynamics and ecosystem function. Thus, our study implies that the impacts of removing top predators via activities such as hunting and overfishing will cascade to basal resources and ecosystem properties primarily through density-mediated interactions.

Scaling Up Endocrine Disruption Effects from Individuals to Populations: Outcomes Depend on How Many Males a Population Needs.

Assessing how endocrine disrupting compounds (EDCs) affect population dynamics requires tracking males and females (and sex-reversed individuals) separately. A key component in any sex-specific model is the "mating function" (the relationship between sex ratio and reproductive success) but this relationship is not known for any fish species. Using a model, we found that EDC effects on fish populations strongly depend upon the shape of the mating function. Additionally, masculinization is generally more detrimental to populations than feminization. We then quantified the mating function for the inland silverside (Menidia beryllina), and used those results and the model to assess the status of wild silverside populations. Contrary to the expectation that a few males can spawn with many females, silversides exhibited a nearly linear mating function. This implies that small changes in the sex ratio will reduce reproductive success. Four out of five wild silverside populations exhibited sex ratios far from 50:50 and thus are predicted to be experiencing population declines. Our results suggest that managers should place more emphasis on mitigating masculinizing rather than feminizing EDC effects. However, for species with a nearly linear mating function, such as Menidia, feminization and masculinization are equally detrimental.

Application of diet theory reveals context-dependent foraging preferences in an herbivorous coral reef fish.

Dietary preferences of grazers can drive spatial variability in top-down control of autotroph communities, because diet composition may depend on the relative availability of autotroph species. On Caribbean coral reefs, parrotfish grazing is important in limiting macroalgae, but parrotfish dietary preferences are poorly understood. We applied diet-switching analysis to quantify the foraging preferences of the redband parrotfish (Sparisoma aurofrenatum). At 12 Caribbean reefs, we observed 293 redband parrotfish in 5-min feeding bouts and quantified relative benthic algal cover using quadrats. The primary diet items were macroalgal turfs, Halimeda spp., and foliose macroalgae (primarily Dictyota spp. and Lobophora spp.). When each resource was evaluated independently, there were only weak relationships between resource cover and foraging effort (number of bites taken). Electivity for each resource also showed no pattern, varying from positive (preference for the resource) to negative (avoidance) across sites. However, a diet-switching analysis consisting of pairwise comparisons of relative cover and relative foraging effort revealed clearer patterns: parrotfish (a) preferred Halimeda and macroalgal turfs equally, and those two resources were highly substitutable; (b) preferred Halimeda to foliose macroalgae, but those two resources were complementary; and (c) also preferred turf to foliose macroalgae, and those resources were also complementary. Thus parrotfish grazing rates depend on relative, not absolute, abundance of macroalgal types, due to differences in substitutability among resources. Application of similar analyses may help predict potential changes in foraging effort of benthic grazers over spatial gradients that could inform expectations for reef recovery following the protection of herbivore populations.

Inverse approach to estimating larval dispersal reveals limited population connectivity along 700 km of wave-swept open coast.

Demographic connectivity is fundamental to the persistence and resilience of metapopulations, but our understanding of the link between reproduction and recruitment is notoriously poor in open-coast marine populations. We provide the first evidence of high local retention and limited connectivity among populations spanning 700 km along an open coast in an upwelling system. Using extensive field measurements of fecundity, population size and settlement in concert with a Bayesian inverse modelling approach, we estimated that, on average, Petrolisthes cinctipes larvae disperse only 6.9 km (±25.0 km s.d.) from natal populations, despite spending approximately six weeks in an open-coast system that was once assumed to be broadly dispersive. This estimate differed substantially from our prior dispersal estimate (153.9 km) based on currents and larval duration and behaviour, revealing the importance of employing demographic data in larval dispersal estimates. Based on this estimate, we predict that demographic connectivity occurs predominantly among neighbouring populations less than 30 km apart. Comprehensive studies of larval production, settlement and connectivity are needed to advance an understanding of the ecology and evolution of life in the sea as well as to conserve ecosystems. Our novel approach provides a tractable framework for addressing these questions for species occurring in discrete coastal populations.

Fitting state-space integral projection models to size-structured time series data to estimate unknown parameters.

Integral projection models (IPMs) have a number of advantages over matrix-model approaches for analyzing size-structured population dynamics, because the latter require parameter estimates for each age or stage transition. However, IPMs still require appropriate data. Typically they are parameterized using individual-scale relationships between body size and demographic rates, but these are not always available. We present an alternative approach for estimating demographic parameters from time series of size-structured survey data using a Bayesian state-space IPM (SSIPM). By fitting an IPM in a state-space framework, we estimate unknown parameters and explicitly account for process and measurement error in a dataset to estimate the underlying process model dynamics. We tested our method by fitting SSIPMs to simulated data; the model fit the simulated size distributions well and estimated unknown demographic parameters accurately. We then illustrated our method using nine years of annual surveys of the density and size distribution of two fish species (blue rockfish, Sebastes mystinus, and gopher rockfish, S. carnatus) at seven kelp forest sites in California. The SSIPM produced reasonable fits to the data, and estimated fishing rates for both species that were higher than our Bayesian prior estimates based on coast-wide stock assessment estimates of harvest. That improvement reinforces the value of being able to estimate demographic parameters from local-scale monitoring data. We highlight a number of key decision points in SSIPM development (e.g., open vs. closed demography, number of particles in the state-space filter) so that users can apply the method to their own datasets.

Larval traits carry over to affect post-settlement behaviour in a common coral reef fish.

Most reef fishes begin life as planktonic larvae before settling to the reef, metamorphosing and entering the benthic adult population. Different selective forces determine survival in the planktonic and benthic life stages, but traits established in the larval stage may carry over to affect post-settlement performance. We tested the hypothesis that larval traits affect two key post-settlement fish behaviours: social group-joining and foraging. Certain larval traits of reef fishes are permanently recorded in the rings in their otoliths. In the bluehead wrasse (Thalassoma bifasciatum), prior work has shown that key larval traits recorded in otoliths (growth rate, energetic condition at settlement) carry over to affect post-settlement survival on the reef, with higher-larval-condition fish experiencing less post-settlement mortality. We hypothesized that this selective mortality is mediated by carry-over effects on post-settlement antipredator behaviours. We predicted that better-condition fish would forage less and be more likely to join groups, both behaviours that would reduce predation risk. We collected 550 recently settled bluehead wrasse (Thalassoma bifasciatum) from three reef sites off St. Croix (USVI) and performed two analyses. First, we compared each settler's larval traits to the size of its social group to determine whether larval traits influenced group-joining behaviour. Secondly, we observed foraging behaviour in a subset of grouped and solitary fish (n = 14) for 1-4 days post-settlement. We then collected the fish and tested whether larval traits influenced the proportion of time spent foraging. Body length at settlement, but not condition, affected group-joining behaviour; smaller fish were more likely to remain solitary or in smaller groups. However, both greater length and better condition were associated with greater proportions of time spent foraging over four consecutive days post-settlement. Larval traits carry over to affect post-settlement behaviour, although not as we expected: higher quality larvae join groups more frequently (safer) but then forage more. Foraging is risky but may allow faster post-settlement growth, reducing mortality risk in the long run. This shows that behaviour likely serves as a mechanistic link connecting larval traits to post-settlement selective mortality.

Density-dependent prey mortality is determined by the spatial scale of predator foraging.

Foraging theory predicts which prey patches predators should target. However, in most habitats, what constitutes a 'patch' and how prey density is calculated are subjective concepts and depend on the spatial scale at which the predator (or scientist) is observing. Moreover, the predator's 'foraging scale' affects prey population dynamics: predators should produce directly density-dependent (DDD) prey mortality at the foraging scale, but inversely density-dependent (IDD) mortality (safety-in-numbers) at smaller scales. We performed the first experimental test of these predictions using behavioral assays with guppies (Poecilia reticulata) feeding on bloodworm 'prey' patches. The guppy's foraging scale had already been estimated in a prior study. Our experimental results confirmed theoretical predictions: predation was IDD when prey were aggregated at a scale smaller than the foraging scale, but not when prey were aggregated at larger scales. These results could be used to predict outcomes of predator-prey interactions in continuous, non-discrete habitats in the field.

Marine population connectivity: reconciling large-scale dispersal and high self-retention.

Predicting connectivity patterns in systems with fluid transport requires descriptions of the spatial distribution of propagules. In contrast to research on terrestrial seed dispersal, where much attention has focused on localized physical factors affecting dispersal, studies of oceanic propagule dispersal have often emphasized the role of large-scale factors. We link these two perspectives by exploring how propagule dispersal in the ocean is influenced by the "coastal boundary layer" (CBL), a region of reduced velocities near the shoreline that might substantially modify local-scale dispersal. We used a simple simulation model to demonstrate that accounting for the CBL markedly alters transport distances, the widths of dispersal distributions, and the fraction of larvae retained near their sites of origin (self-retention). Median dispersal distances were up to 59% shorter in simulations with a CBL than in those without. Self-retention of larvae increased by up to 3 orders of magnitude in the presence of CBLs, but only minor changes arose in the long-distance tails of the distributions, resulting in asymmetric, non-Gaussian kernels analogous to those quantified for terrestrial seed dispersal. Because successfully settling larvae are commonly those that remain close to shore and interact with the CBL, ignoring this pervasive oceanographic feature will substantially alter predictions of population self-persistence, estimates of connectivity, and outcomes of metapopulation analyses.

Marine reserve design theory for species with ontogenetic migration.

Models for marine reserve design have been developed primarily with 'reef fish' life histories in mind: sedentary adults in patches connected by larval dispersal. However, many fished species undertake ontogenetic migrations, such as from nursery grounds to adult spawning habitats, and current theory does not fully address the range of reserve options posed by that situation. I modelled a generic species with ontogenetic migration to investigate the possible benefits of reserves under three alternative scenarios. First, the fishery targets adult habitat, and reserves can sustain yields under high exploitation, unless habitat patches are well connected. Second, the fishery targets the nursery, and reserves are highly effective, regardless of connectivity patterns. Third, the fishery targets both habitats, and reserves only succeed if paired on adjacent, well-connected nursery and adult patches. In all cases, reserves can buffer populations against overexploitation but would not enhance fishery yield beyond that achievable by management without reserves. These results summarize the general situations in which management using reserves could be useful for ontogenetically migrating species, and the type of connectivity data needed to inform reserve design.

Beyond connectivity: how empirical methods can quantify population persistence to improve marine protected-area design.

Demographic connectivity is a fundamental process influencing the dynamics and persistence of spatially structured populations. Consequently, quantifying connectivity is essential for properly designing networks of protected areas so that they achieve their core ecological objective of maintaining population persistence. Recently, many empirical studies in marine systems have provided essential, and historically challenging to obtain, data on patterns of larval dispersal and export from marine protected areas (MPAs). Here, we review the empirical studies that have directly quantified the origins and destinations of individual larvae and assess those studies' relevance to the theory of population persistence and MPA design objectives. We found that empirical studies often do not measure or present quantities that are relevant to assessing population persistence, even though most studies were motivated or contextualized by MPA applications. Persistence of spatial populations, like nonspatial populations, depends on replacement, whether individuals reproduce enough in their lifetime to replace themselves. In spatial populations, one needs to account for the effect of larval dispersal on future recruitment back to the local population through local retention and other connectivity pathways. The most commonly reported descriptor of larval dispersal was the fraction of recruitment from local origin (self-recruitment). Self-recruitment does not inform persistence-based MPA design because it is a fraction of those arriving, not a fraction of those leaving (local retention), so contains no information on replacement. Some studies presented connectivity matrices, which can inform assessments of persistence with additional knowledge of survival and fecundity after recruitment. Some studies collected data in addition to larval dispersal that could inform assessments of population persistence but which were not presented in that way. We describe how three pieces of empirical information are needed to fully describe population persistence in a network of MPAs: (1) lifetime fecundity, (2) the proportion of larvae that are locally retained (or the full connectivity matrix), and (3) survival rate after recruitment. We conclude by linking theory and data to provide detailed guidance to empiricists and practitioners on field sampling design and data presentation that better informs the MPA objective of population persistence.

Experimental determination of the spatial scale of a prey patch from the predator's perspective.

Foraging theory predicts that predators should prefer foraging in habitat patches with higher prey densities. However, density depends on the spatial scale at which a "patch" is defined by an observer. Ecologists strive to measure prey densities at the same scale that predators do, but many natural landscapes lack obvious, well-defined prey patches. Thus one must determine the scale at which predators define patches of prey. We estimated the scale at which guppies, Poecilia reticulata, selected patches of zooplankton prey using a behavioral assay. Guppies could choose between two prey arrays, each manipulated to have a density that depended on the spatial scale at which density was calculated. We estimated the scale of guppy foraging by comparing guppy preferences across a series of trials in which we systematically varied the scale associated with "high" prey density. This approach enables the application of foraging theory to non-discrete habitats and prey landscapes.

Marine protected area networks in California, USA.

California responded to concerns about overfishing in the 1990s by implementing a network of marine protected areas (MPAs) through two science-based decision-making processes. The first process focused on the Channel Islands, and the second addressed California's entire coastline, pursuant to the state's Marine Life Protection Act (MLPA). We review the interaction between science and policy in both processes, and lessons learned. For the Channel Islands, scientists controversially recommended setting aside 30-50% of coastline to protect marine ecosystems. For the MLPA, MPAs were intended to be ecologically connected in a network, so design guidelines included minimum size and maximum spacing of MPAs (based roughly on fish movement rates), an approach that also implicitly specified a minimum fraction of the coastline to be protected. As MPA science developed during the California processes, spatial population models were constructed to quantify how MPAs were affected by adult fish movement and larval dispersal, i.e., how population persistence within MPA networks depended on fishing outside the MPAs, and how fishery yields could either increase or decrease with MPA implementation, depending on fishery management. These newer quantitative methods added to, but did not supplant, the initial rule-of-thumb guidelines. In the future, similar spatial population models will allow more comprehensive evaluation of the integrated effects of MPAs and conventional fisheries management. By 2011, California had implemented 132 MPAs covering more than 15% of its coastline, and now stands on the threshold of the most challenging step in this effort: monitoring and adaptive management to ensure ecosystem sustainability.

Competitive and demographic leverage points of community shifts under climate warming.

Accelerating rates of climate change and a paucity of whole-community studies of climate impacts limit our ability to forecast shifts in ecosystem structure and dynamics, particularly because climate change can lead to idiosyncratic responses via both demographic effects and altered species interactions. We used a multispecies model to predict which processes and species' responses are likely to drive shifts in the composition of a space-limited benthic marine community. Our model was parametrized from experimental manipulations of the community. Model simulations indicated shifts in species dominance patterns as temperatures increase, with projected shifts in composition primarily owing to the temperature dependence of growth, mortality and competition for three critical species. By contrast, warming impacts on two other species (rendering them weaker competitors for space) and recruitment rates of all species were of lesser importance in determining projected community changes. Our analysis reveals the importance of temperature-dependent competitive interactions for predicting effects of changing climate on such communities. Furthermore, by identifying processes and species that could disproportionately leverage shifts in community composition, our results contribute to a mechanistic understanding of climate change impacts, thereby allowing more insightful predictions of future biodiversity patterns.