HERMES-24 Score Derivation and Validation for Simple and Robust Outcome Prediction After Large Vessel Occlusion Treatment.

BACKGROUND: Clinicians need simple and highly predictive prognostic scores to assist practical decision-making. We aimed to develop a simple outcome prediction score applied 24 hours after anterior circulation acute ischemic stroke treatment with endovascular thrombectomy and validate it in patients treated both with and without endovascular thrombectomy. METHODS: Using the HERMES (Highly Effective Reperfusion Evaluated in Multiple Endovascular Stroke Trials) collaboration data set (n=1764), patients in the endovascular thrombectomy arm were divided randomly into a derivation cohort (n=430) and a validation cohort (n=441). From a set of candidate predictors, logistic regression modeling using forward variable selection was used to select a model that was both parsimonious and highly predictive for modified Rankin Scale (mRS) ≤2 at 90 days. The score was validated in validation cohort, control arm (n=893), and external validation cohorts from the ESCAPE-NA1 (Efficacy and Safety of Nerinetide for the Treatment of Acute Ischaemic Stroke; n=1066) and INTERRSeCT (Identifying New Approaches to Optimize Thrombus Characterization for Predicting Early Recanalization and Reperfusion With IV Alteplase and Other Treatments Using Serial CT Angiography; n=614). RESULTS: In the derivation cohort, we selected 2 significant predictors of mRS ≤2 (National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score at 24 hours and age [ß-coefficient, 0.34 and 0.06]) and derived the HERMES-24 score: age (years)/10+National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score at 24 hours. The HERMES-24 score was highly predictive for mRS ≤2 (c-statistic 0.907 [95% CI, 0.879-0.935]) in the derivation cohort. In the validation cohort and the control arm, the HERMES-24 score predicts mRS ≤2 (c-statistic, 0.914 [95% CI, 0.886-0.944] and 0.909 [95% CI, 0.887-0.930]). Observed provability of mRS ≤2 ranged between 3.1% and 3.4% when HERMES-24 score ≥25, while it ranged between 90.6% and 93.0% when HERMES-24 score <10 in the derivation cohort, validation cohort, and control arm. The HERMES-24 score also showed c-statistics of 0.894 and 0.889 for mRS ≤2 in the ESCAPE-NA1 and INTERRSeCT populations. CONCLUSIONS: The post-treatment HERMES-24 score is a simple validated score that predicts a 3-month outcome after anterior circulation large vessel occlusion stroke regardless of intervention, which helps prognostic discussion with families on day 2.

Healthcare professional views about a prehospital redirection pathway for stroke thrombectomy: a multiphase deductive qualitative study.

BACKGROUND: Mechanical thrombectomy for stroke is highly effective but time-critical. Delays are common because many patients require transfer between local hospitals and regional centres. A two-stage prehospital redirection pathway consisting of a simple ambulance screen followed by regional centre assessment to select patients for direct admission could optimise access. However, implementation might be challenged by the limited number of thrombectomy providers, a lack of prehospital diagnostic tests for selecting patients and whether finite resources can accommodate longer ambulance journeys plus greater central admissions. We undertook a three-phase, multiregional, qualitative study to obtain health professional views on the acceptability and feasibility of a new pathway. METHODS: Online focus groups/semistructured interviews were undertaken designed to capture important contextual influences. We purposively sampled NHS staff in four regions of England. Anonymised interview transcripts underwent deductive thematic analysis guided by the NASSS (Non-adoption, Abandonment and Challenges to Scale-up, Spread and Sustainability, Implementation) Implementation Science framework. RESULTS: Twenty-eight staff participated in 4 focus groups, 2 group interviews and 18 individual interviews across 4 Ambulance Trusts, 5 Hospital Trusts and 3 Integrated Stroke Delivery Networks (ISDNs). Five deductive themes were identified: (1) (suspected) stroke as a condition, (2) the pathway change, (3) the value participants placed on the proposed pathway, (4) the possible impact on NHS organisations/adopter systems and (5) the wider healthcare context. Participants perceived suspected stroke as a complex scenario. Most viewed the proposed new thrombectomy pathway as beneficial but potentially challenging to implement. Organisational concerns included staff shortages, increased workflow and bed capacity. Participants also reported wider socioeconomic issues impacting on their services contributing to concerns around the future implementation. CONCLUSIONS: Positive views from health professionals were expressed about the concept of a proposed pathway while raising key content and implementation challenges and useful 'real-world' issues for consideration.

Stroke survivor views on ambulance redirection as a strategy to increase access to thrombectomy in England.

Introduction: Intravenous thrombolysis and mechanical thrombectomy are effective time-sensitive treatments for selected cases of acute ischaemic stroke. While thrombolysis is widely available, thrombectomy can only be provided at facilities with the necessary equipment and interventionists. Suitable patients admitted to other hospitals require secondary transfer, causing delays to treatment. Pre-hospital ambulance redirection to thrombectomy facilities may improve access but treatment eligibility cannot be confirmed pre-hospital. Some redirected patients would travel further and be displaced without receiving thrombectomy. This study aimed to elicit stroke survivor and carer/relative views about the possible consequences of introducing a conceptual, idealised ambulance redirection pathway. Methods: Focus groups were undertaken using a topic guide describing four hypothetical ambulance redirection scenarios and their possible consequences: earlier treatment with thrombectomy; delayed diagnosis of non-stroke 'mimic' conditions; delayed thrombolysis treatment; and delayed diagnosis of haemorrhagic stroke. Meetings were audio recorded, transcribed verbatim and data analysed thematically using emergent coding. Results: Fifteen stroke survivors and carers/relatives participated in three focus groups. There was wide acceptance of possible low-risk consequences of ambulance redirection, including extended travel time, being further from home and experiencing longer hospital stays. Participants were more uncertain about higher-risk consequences, including delays in diagnosis/treatment for patients unsuitable for thrombectomy, but remained positive about ambulance redirection overall. Participants rationalised acceptance of higher-risk consequences by recognising that redirected patients would still access appropriate treatment, even if delayed. In addition, acceptance of ambulance redirection would be increased if there were robust clinical evidence showing net benefit over secondary transfer pathways. Conclusions: Participant views were generally supportive of ambulance redirection to facilitate access to thrombectomy. Further research is needed to demonstrate overall benefit in an NHS context.

Rapid Assay Diagnostic for Acute Stroke Recognition (RADAR): study protocol for a diagnostic accuracy study.

INTRODUCTION: Large-vessel occlusion (LVO) stroke is effectively treated by time-critical thrombectomy, a highly specialised procedure only available in a limited number of centres. Many patients with suspected stroke are admitted to their nearest hospital and require transfer to access treatment, with resulting delays. This study is evaluating the accuracy of a new rapid portable test for LVO stroke which could be used in the future to select patients for direct admission to a thrombectomy centre. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: Rapid Assay Diagnostic for Acute Stroke Recognition (RADAR) is a prospective observational cohort study taking place in stroke units in England. Participants are adults with a new suspected stroke with at least one face, arm or speech (FAST) symptom(s) and known onset within 6 hours or last known to be well 6-24 hours ago. The index test ('LVOne test' (Upfront Diagnostics)), consists of two portable lateral flow assays which use fingerprick capillary blood to detect d-dimer and glial fibrillary acidic protein concentrations. Reference standards comprise independently adjudicated standard CT/MRI brain±CT/MR angiography with senior clinician opinion to establish: ischaemic stroke±LVO; intracerebral haemorrhage; transient ischaemic attack; stroke mimic. Analyses will report sensitivity, specificity and negative and positive predictive values for identification of LVO stroke. Powered using a primary analysis population (≥2 FAST symptoms and known onset within 6 hours), 276 participants will detect a test specificity of 92%. The broader total study population which allows evaluation of the test for milder symptoms and unknown onset times is estimated to be 552 participants. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Ethical (North East-Newcastle & North Tyneside 2 Research Ethics Committee (reference: 23/NE/0043), Health Research Authority and participating National Health Service Trust approvals are granted. Consent is required for enrolment. Dissemination of results will include presentations at conferences, publication in journals and plain English summaries. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ISRCTN12414986.

Collaterals at angiography guide clinical outcomes after endovascular stroke therapy in HERMES.

BACKGROUND: Robust collateral circulation has been linked with better reperfusion and clinical outcomes. It remains unclear how individual assessments of collateral circulation may be translated into clinical practice. METHODS: The pooled Highly Effective Reperfusion Evaluated in Multiple Endovascular Stroke Trials (HERMES) angiography dataset was analyzed by a centralized, independent imaging core blinded to other clinical data. Conventional angiography was acquired immediately prior to endovascular therapy. Collaterals were graded with the American Society of Interventional and Therapeutic Neuroradiology/Society of Interventional Radiology (ASITN) system and associated with baseline patient characteristics, reperfusion, and day 90 modified Rankin Score (mRS). Both 90-day all-cause mortality and day 90 mRS were modeled via multivariable logistic regression. RESULTS: Angiography was available in 376/605 (62%) patients. Baseline ASPECTS (Alberta Stroke Program Early CT Score) (p=0.043), history of diabetes mellitus (p=0.048), site of occlusion (p<0.001), and degree of subsequent Thrombolysis in Cerebral Infarction (TICI) reperfusion (p<0.001) were associated with collateral grades. ASITN collateral grade was strongly associated with ordinal mRS from baseline to 90 days in an unadjusted analysis (p<0.001). Multivariable regression demonstrated that collateral status is a strong determinant of mRS outcome in the presence of other predictors (OR=1.37 per grade, 95% CI [1.05 to 1.74], p=0.018). By comparing ORs, 1 unit of ASITN was determined to be approximately equivalent to 4.5 points of NIHSS, 11 years of age, 1.5 points of ASPECTS, or 100 min less delay from onset to puncture, in terms of impact on mRS. CONCLUSIONS: Individual collateral physiology may contribute significantly to reperfusion success and clinical outcomes after acute ischemic stroke. Building a consensus for the role of angiographic collateral assessment in the allocation of adjuvant reperfusion therapies may help galvanize a precision medicine approach in stroke.