Atmospheric transport of ozone between Southern and Eastern Asia.

This study describes the effect of pollution transport between East Asia and South Asia on tropospheric ozone (O3) using model results from the Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution (TF HTAP). Ensemble mean O3 concentrations are evaluated against satellite-data and ground observations of surface O3 at four stations in India. Although modeled surface O3 concentrations are 1020ppb higher than those observed, the relative magnitude of the seasonal cycle of O3 is reproduced well. Using 20% reductions in regional anthropogenic emissions, we quantify the seasonal variations in pollution transport between East Asia and South Asia. While there is only a difference of 0.05 to 0.1ppb in the magnitudes of the regional contributions from one region to the other, O3 from East Asian sources affects the most densely populated parts of South Asia while Southern Asian sources only partly affect the populated parts of East Asia. We show that emission changes over East Asia between 2000 and 2010 had a larger impact on populated parts of South Asia than vice versa. This study will help inform future decisions on emission control policy over these regions.

The global atmospheric environment for the next generation.

Air quality, ecosystem exposure to nitrogen deposition, and climate change are intimately coupled problems: we assess changes in the global atmospheric environment between 2000 and 2030 using 26 state-of-the-art global atmospheric chemistry models and three different emissions scenarios. The first (CLE) scenario reflects implementation of current air quality legislation around the world, while the second (MFR) represents a more optimistic case in which all currently feasible technologies are applied to achieve maximum emission reductions. We contrast these scenarios with the more pessimistic IPCC SRES A2 scenario. Ensemble simulations for the year 2000 are consistent among models and show a reasonable agreement with surface ozone, wet deposition, and NO2 satellite observations. Large parts of the world are currently exposed to high ozone concentrations and high deposition of nitrogen to ecosystems. By 2030, global surface ozone is calculated to increase globally by 1.5 +/- 1.2 ppb (CLE) and 4.3 +/- 2.2 ppb (A2), using the ensemble mean model results and associated +/-1 sigma standard deviations. Only the progressive MFR scenario will reduce ozone, by -2.3 +/- 1.1 ppb. Climate change is expected to modify surface ozone by -0.8 +/- 0.6 ppb, with larger decreases over sea than over land. Radiative forcing by ozone increases by 63 +/- 15 and 155 +/- 37 mW m(-2) for CLE and A2, respectively, and decreases by -45 +/- 15 mW m(-2) for MFR. We compute that at present 10.1% of the global natural terrestrial ecosystems are exposed to nitrogen deposition above a critical load of 1 g N m(-2) yr(-1). These percentages increase by 2030 to 15.8% (CLE), 10.5% (MFR), and 25% (A2). This study shows the importance of enforcing current worldwide air quality legislation and the major benefits of going further. Nonattainment of these air quality policy objectives, such as expressed by the SRES-A2 scenario, would further degrade the global atmospheric environment.