The stochastic nature of larval connectivity among nearshore marine populations.

Many nearshore fish and invertebrate populations are overexploited even when apparently coherent management structures are in place. One potential cause of mismanagement may be a poor understanding and accounting of stochasticity, particularly for stock recruitment. Many of the fishes and invertebrates that comprise nearshore fisheries are relatively sedentary as adults but have an obligate larval pelagic stage that is dispersed by ocean currents. Here, we demonstrate that larval connectivity is inherently an intermittent and heterogeneous process on annual time scales. This stochasticity arises from the advection of pelagic larvae by chaotic coastal circulations. This result departs from typical assumptions where larvae simply diffuse from one site to another or where complex connectivity patterns are created by transport within spatially complicated environments. We derive a statistical model for the expected variability in larval settlement patterns and demonstrate how larval connectivity varies as a function of different biological and physical processes. The stochastic nature of larval connectivity creates an unavoidable uncertainty in the assessment of fish recruitment and the resulting forecasts of sustainable yields.

Tomographic reconstruction of stratified fluid flow.

A method for imaging a moving fluid is proposed and evaluated by numerical simulation. A cross-section of a three-dimensional fluid is probed by high-frequency acoustic waves from several different directions. Assuming straight-ray geometric acoustics, the time of flight depends on both the scaler sound speed and the vector fluid velocity. By appropriately combining travel times, projections of both the sound speed and the velocity are isolated. The sound speed is reconstructed using the standard filtered backprojection algorithm. Though complete inversion of velocity is not possible, sufficient information is available to recover the component of fluid vorticity transverse to the plane of insonification. A new filtered backprojection algorithm for vorticity is developed and implemented. To demonstrate the inversion procedure, a 3-D stratified fluid is simulated and travel time data are calculated by path integration. These data are then inverted to recover both the scaler sound speed and the vorticity of the evolving flow.