The COVID-19 Crisis and the Incidence of Alcohol-Related Deaths in Poland.

BACKGROUND Identifying risk and protective factors for excessive alcohol consumption can inform targeted health policies, reducing the impact of potential mental health crises. This study examined the validity and reliability of COVID-19-related death data and explored the correlations among age, sex, residential status, alcohol abuse, and healthcare access. MATERIAL AND METHODS This analysis of Polish residents' mortality relies on individual data from the register of deaths maintained by Statistics Poland. This study examined deviations in the number of deaths between 2020 and 2021 by analyzing specific causes of death. RESULTS Alcohol abusers had increased COVID-19 risk factors compared to the general population. F10 values were 22% higher than expected in 2020, aligning with predictions for 2021. Higher mortality rates were observed in the first year of the pandemic. In 2020, women and rural residents were more affected (31% and 25% higher than expected, respectively), while men and urban residents were less affected (21% and 20% higher than expected, respectively). In 2021, the trend reversed, with men 2% higher than predicted and women 4% lower. Urban area residents had a 77% lower than expected value, while rural area residents were similar (8% higher). Overall mortality exceeded expectations in both 2020 (13% higher) and 2021 (23% higher). In 2021, alcohol-related non-mental health problems increased by more than 40% in standardized death rates (SDRs). CONCLUSIONS Alcohol-related deaths reflect the hidden effects of the pandemic. Measuring the pandemic's impact on global excess mortality is hindered by inconsistencies in COVID-19 death reporting.

Perceived helpfulness of treatment for social anxiety disorder: findings from the WHO World Mental Health Surveys.

PURPOSE: To investigate the prevalence and predictors of perceived helpfulness of treatment in persons with a history of DSM-IV social anxiety disorder (SAD), using a worldwide population-based sample. METHODS: The World Health Organization World Mental Health Surveys is a coordinated series of community epidemiological surveys of non-institutionalized adults; 27 surveys in 24 countries (16 in high-income; 11 in low/middle-income countries; N = 117,856) included people with a lifetime history of treated SAD. RESULTS: In respondents with lifetime SAD, approximately one in five ever obtained treatment. Among these (n = 1322), cumulative probability of receiving treatment they regarded as helpful after seeing up to seven professionals was 92.2%. However, only 30.2% persisted this long, resulting in 65.1% ever receiving treatment perceived as helpful. Perceiving treatment as helpful was more common in female respondents, those currently married, more highly educated, and treated in non-formal health-care settings. Persistence in seeking treatment for SAD was higher among those with shorter delays in seeking treatment, in those receiving medication from a mental health specialist, and those with more than two lifetime anxiety disorders. CONCLUSIONS: The vast majority of individuals with SAD do not receive any treatment. Among those who do, the probability that people treated for SAD obtain treatment they consider helpful increases considerably if they persisted in help-seeking after earlier unhelpful treatments.

Factors determining adherence to guidelines and restrictions during the initial period of the COVID-19 pandemic in Poland before the vaccination rollout.

INTRODUCTION: In Poland, like in many other countries, guidelines and certain restrictions were introduced in order to reduce the impact of the pandemic and curb the spread of the virus. These related to such behaviours as washing and disinfecting hands, wearing face masks in designated places, keeping social distance and frequently ventilating rooms. However, not all people follow the guidelines, which can lead to both health and social ramifications. The key objective of this study was an in-depth analysis of how safety rules (SR) were complied with in Poland during the initial pandemic period before the vaccines were rolled out, as well as determining factors that could affect the compliance with SR. METHODS: The study was conducted in the form of a series of cross-sectional surveys using the CATI method on a representative Polish sample in 8 rounds of interviews. Random sampling was applied. The first round was carried out from 2 to 6 July 2020, the last from 17 to 21 August 2020. The authors' original survey questionnaire was used. Factors affecting the compliance with SR were analysed using the multivariate logistic regression method on a combined group of participants from all the study rounds. RESULTS: In total, 4,800 subjects participated in the study, of which 2,512 were women (52.3%) and 2,288 were men (47.7%). Compliance with guidelines was defined based on four survey questions relating to: disinfecting hands when not at home, not touching items with bare hands when not at home, wearing face masks or covering mouth and nose, as well as washing hands after coming back home. Two affirmative answers to these questions or wearing a face mask alone (covering mouth and nose) were interpreted as compliance with SR. SR were more frequently followed by women OR=1.234 95% CI (0.988-1.543), persons over the age of 65 OR=2.098 95% CI (1.409-3.122), people with university education OR=1.315 95% CI (0.950-1.820) and residents of large cities OR=2.179 95% CI (1.382-3.437). Factors that supported compliance with SR were older age, fear of contracting COVID-19 and knowledge of SR. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS: During the first wave of the pandemic, the SR compliance level was high. Nevertheless, the study identified social groups with a higher risk of non-compliance. This indicates a need for properly addressing communication to these groups, especially that, as was demonstrated, the knowledge alone of pandemic-related messages significantly increased the likelihood of following SR and restrictions. The study of infection-preventing behaviours and their context may provide essential information to guide public policies and communication strategies that would support these behaviours in order to control the spread of the virus more effectively.

Trends in health inequalities in 27 European countries.

Unfavorable health trends among the lowly educated have recently been reported from the United States. We analyzed health trends by education in European countries, paying particular attention to the possibility of recent trend interruptions, including interruptions related to the impact of the 2008 financial crisis. We collected and harmonized data on mortality from ca 1980 to ca 2014 for 17 countries covering 9.8 million deaths and data on self-reported morbidity from ca 2002 to ca 2014 for 27 countries covering 350,000 survey respondents. We used interrupted time-series analyses to study changes over time and country-fixed effects analyses to study the impact of crisis-related economic conditions on health outcomes. Recent trends were more favorable than in previous decades, particularly in Eastern Europe, where mortality started to decline among lowly educated men and where the decline in less-than-good self-assessed health accelerated, resulting in some narrowing of health inequalities. In Western Europe, mortality has continued to decline among the lowly and highly educated, and although the decline of less-than-good self-assessed health slowed in countries severely hit by the financial crisis, this affected lowly and highly educated equally. Crisis-related economic conditions were not associated with widening health inequalities. Our results show that the unfavorable trends observed in the United States are not found in Europe. There has also been no discernible short-term impact of the crisis on health inequalities at the population level. Both findings suggest that European countries have been successful in avoiding an aggravation of health inequalities.

Lung cancer survival and comorbidities in lung cancer screening participants of the Gdansk screening cohort.

BACKGROUND: In 2010, the World Health Organisation recommended implementation of screening programmes in four groups of diseases-neoplasms, cardiovascular diseases (CVD), diabetes mellitus (DM) and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). It is due to the fact that they share the same, modifiable risk factors. METHODS: Between 2009 and 2011, 8637 heavy smokers (aged 50-75, smoking history >20 pack-years) were screened in the Pomeranian Pilot Lung Cancer Screening Programme (PPP) in Gdansk, Poland. We looked at 5-year follow-up and analysed the medical events and comorbidities of all participants. One health care provider in the Polish health care system provides a unique opportunity to gather most reliable data on all medical events in each person. RESULTS: In 52.0% of lung cancer screening participants CVD (33.5%), DM (26.0%) and COPD (21.0%) were diagnosed. Prevalence of these diseases is higher in lung cancer patients than in the non-cancer screening group (P < 0.0001). One hundred and seven (1.2%) lung cancers were diagnosed during PPP programme performance and another 382 cases (4.4%) in the 5-year follow-up, so the potential mean annual lung cancer detection rate is 0.77%. CONCLUSIONS: Lung cancer screening programme offers a great potential for joint screening of lung cancer, CVD, diabetes and COPD.

Nationwide General Hospital Morbidity Study as a source of data about Polish population health

The objective of this article is description of the important source of data on hospitalised morbidity collected in Poland within the frameworks of public statistics, and also underlying the significance of the quality of data collected at the hospital level for the purpose of the practical application of them. The Nationwide General Hospital Morbidity Study has been conducted by the Department of Population Health Monitoring and Analysis of the NIPH-NIH for more than 40 years within the frameworks of the Programme of Statistical Surveys of Official Statistics. Since the year 2000, it has had a complete character, collecting individual data for all cases of hospitalisation in Poland within the scope compliant with the MZ/Szp-11 form, among others, sex, age, place of residence of a patient, data on hospital, information about the course of treatment (length of stay in hospital, principal diagnosis and comorbidity, applied medical procedures, the mode of admission and discharge). The collected data are anonymous. In the recent years, annually, more than 8 million of the cases of hospitalisation have been documented. Almost all obliged hospitals (96%) participate in the study. Some weak point is the completeness of submitted data, in particular, regarding information about the external causes of injuries and poisonings (in the year 2017, 27% of the required data were missing). Interestingly, a high level of missing data is generated by a comparatively small number of hospitals. Significant differences are observed in the quality of data depending on the voivodship of hospital location. The collected data render it possible to, among others, determine the frequency of hospitalisations due to particular causes taking under consideration the localisation of a hospital, and also the sex, age and the place of residence of patients, the analysis of the duration of hospital stay or in-hospital fatality. The aggregated results are reported to international databases (WHO, OECD, Eurostat), and support the administrative authorities of various levels. They are also a basis for numerous published scientific papers. The most important results of routine analyses are presented of the web page of the Study (http://www.statystyka1.medstat.waw.pl/).

Variations in experience of social support and physical health among adult residents of Poland in urban versus rural areas

Background: A study reveals ­ against to common beliefs ­less support between rural area residents in comparison to town-dwellers and significantly higher support for healthy, not for poor health research participants. Objectives: The aim of our paper was comparing support from spouse/partner, relatives, friends and strangers among people with good and ill physical health. A next purpose was to find differences of social support and experience of social undermining in urban and rural residential settings. Material and methods: The study "Epidemiology of Mental Disorders and Access to Mental Health Care, EZOP ­ Poland" was carried out on random sample of 24 000 of Poland residents and a 50,4% response rate, 10 081 computerassisted personal interviews. Of those respondents, 4 000 constituted a sub-sample asked to complete the social networks and support section of the questionnaire. Data were analyzed by age, gender, residential setting and marital status for statistically significant differences in the percentage of functional and structural social support being reported, using the chi-squared test with a significance level of 0.05 used to reject the null hypothesis (H0 = lack of relationship between variables). Results: A majority of respondents maintain that in difficult life situations, family and a close network of friends and acquaintances make it possible to openly discuss problems and obtain help. However, respondents who rate their health as "poor" or "very poor" significantly less often than healthy individuals experience support coming from their relatives, friends, or strangers. In comparison to urban areas, the extent of social support in rural areas is significantly limited. The rural setting offers less support and even less opportunities for interaction with relatives, friends, acquaintances and strangers. Negative social factors­ low levels of trust, isolation from friends and family, lack of a social life, lack of a helpful neighborhood ­ are conditions significantly more often found in the countryside than in urban areas. Conclusions: Results obtained from the EZOP study shows that amount of social support received is higher in urban areas and among those who enjoy better physical health.

Socioeconomic inequalities in suicide in Europe: the widening gap.

BACKGROUND: Suicide has been decreasing over the past decade. However, we do not know whether socioeconomic inequality in suicide has been decreasing as well.AimsWe assessed recent trends in socioeconomic inequalities in suicide in 15 European populations. METHOD: The DEMETRIQ study collected and harmonised register-based data on suicide mortality follow-up of population censuses, from 1991 and 2001, in European populations aged 35-79. Absolute and relative inequalities of suicide according to education were computed on more than 300 million person-years. RESULTS: In the 1990s, people in the lowest educational group had 1.82 times more suicides than those in the highest group. In the 2000s, this ratio increased to 2.12. Among men, absolute and relative inequalities were substantial in both periods and generally did not decrease over time, whereas among women inequalities were absent in the first period and emerged in the second. CONCLUSIONS: The World Health Organization (WHO) plan for 'Fair opportunity of mental wellbeing' is not likely to be met.Declaration of interestNone.

Early and One-Year Outcomes of Acute Stroke in the Industrial Region of Poland During the Decade 2006-2015: The Silesian Stroke Registry.

BACKGROUND: Poland, classified as a high-income country, is still considered to have a high cardiovascular risk population. During the last decade, the standards of care in acute stroke (AS) had markedly improved; thus, we aimed to assess whether and how it translated into early and late outcomes. METHODS: Silesian Stroke Registry was created from the administrative database of the public, obligatory, health -insurer in Poland. The AS cases were selected based on primary diagnosis coded in ICD-10 as I60-I64 for years 2006-2015 (n = 120,844). Index hospitalization together with data on re-hospitalizations, procedures, ambulatory visits, rehabilitation and all-cause deaths in a 1-year follow-up were analyzed. RESULTS: The rates of admissions per 100,000 adult population varied between 41-47 for haemorrhagic and 257-275 for ischaemic stroke with substantial decrease in almost all age groups except for the oldest patients. In ischaemic stroke, thrombolytic therapy raised from 0 to 8.8% in 2015, along with significant trends of decreasing 30-day (from 20 to 16%) and 12-month (from 35 to 31%) case fatality. In haemorrhagic stroke, case fatality had not changed. After ischaemic stroke, 12-month readmissions due to AS declined from 11-12% in 2006-2009 to 9% in 2010-2014. The percentage of patients benefiting from rehabilitation increased from 24 to 32%. CONCLUSIONS: In a large population of industrial province, we showed recent, positive trends in AS admissions, treatment and 1-year outcomes. Development of stroke unit networks and increase in thrombolytic treatment were at least in part responsible for survival improvement and reduction of recurrence of AS. However, case-fatality and stroke recurrence remain high compared to those of other developed countries.

Cerebrovascular diseases in Poland-inconsistent seasonal patterns of hospitalisation and mortality.

Background: A seasonal variation in the incidence of cerebrovascular diseases still remains inconsistently evidenced. Herein, we analyse the monthly patterns of two health phenomena: hospital admissions and deaths due to these diseases. Methods: We identified 69 511 cases of hospital admissions and 14 956 deaths due to cerebrovascular diseases (ICD10: I60-I69 and G45) among the inhabitants of five Polish voivodeship capitals in 2004-13. The method of time series analysis (exponential smoothing with linear trend and monthly additive seasonality) was applied to calculate the monthly specific seasonal indices. The monthly variation in an in-hospital fatality and nonhospital deaths were also analysed. Results: A summer season reduction in number of cases was observed for hospital admissions and deaths. Interestingly, the winter season effect is much more complex, mainly due to the contribution of December, when a high mortality is accompanied by a substantial decrease in the hospitalisation level. This unique discrepancy was observed for all the studied cities. Moreover, this month is characterised by a notably high in-hospital fatality. However, neither the number of non-hospital deaths nor the average length of hospital stay or the kind of hospitalised diseases evidenced that cerebrovascular problems were more serious in December than in any other month. Conclusion: The obtained results confirmed a seasonal variation in cerebrovascular diseases among the inhabitants of Polish cities. Habitual and administrative limitations in hospital activities observed every December do not seem indifferent from the patient health's perspective since they may lead to a low hospitalisation level and a high in-hospital fatality.

The cross-national epidemiology of social anxiety disorder: Data from the World Mental Health Survey Initiative.

BACKGROUND: There is evidence that social anxiety disorder (SAD) is a prevalent and disabling disorder. However, most of the available data on the epidemiology of this condition originate from high income countries in the West. The World Mental Health (WMH) Survey Initiative provides an opportunity to investigate the prevalence, course, impairment, socio-demographic correlates, comorbidity, and treatment of this condition across a range of high, middle, and low income countries in different geographic regions of the world, and to address the question of whether differences in SAD merely reflect differences in threshold for diagnosis. METHODS: Data from 28 community surveys in the WMH Survey Initiative, with 142,405 respondents, were analyzed. We assessed the 30-day, 12-month, and lifetime prevalence of SAD, age of onset, and severity of role impairment associated with SAD, across countries. In addition, we investigated socio-demographic correlates of SAD, comorbidity of SAD with other mental disorders, and treatment of SAD in the combined sample. Cross-tabulations were used to calculate prevalence, impairment, comorbidity, and treatment. Survival analysis was used to estimate age of onset, and logistic regression and survival analyses were used to examine socio-demographic correlates. RESULTS: SAD 30-day, 12-month, and lifetime prevalence estimates are 1.3, 2.4, and 4.0% across all countries. SAD prevalence rates are lowest in low/lower-middle income countries and in the African and Eastern Mediterranean regions, and highest in high income countries and in the Americas and the Western Pacific regions. Age of onset is early across the globe, and persistence is highest in upper-middle income countries, Africa, and the Eastern Mediterranean. There are some differences in domains of severe role impairment by country income level and geographic region, but there are no significant differences across different income level and geographic region in the proportion of respondents with any severe role impairment. Also, across countries SAD is associated with specific socio-demographic features (younger age, female gender, unmarried status, lower education, and lower income) and with similar patterns of comorbidity. Treatment rates for those with any impairment are lowest in low/lower-middle income countries and highest in high income countries. CONCLUSIONS: While differences in SAD prevalence across countries are apparent, we found a number of consistent patterns across the globe, including early age of onset, persistence, impairment in multiple domains, as well as characteristic socio-demographic correlates and associated psychiatric comorbidities. In addition, while there are some differences in the patterns of impairment associated with SAD across the globe, key similarities suggest that the threshold for diagnosis is similar regardless of country income levels or geographic location. Taken together, these cross-national data emphasize the international clinical and public health significance of SAD.

Association between high temperature and mortality of Warsaw inhabitants, 2008-2013 / Zwiazek umieralnosci mieszkanców Warszawy z wysoka temperatura powietrza, w latach 2008-2013

Different aspects of association between daily maximum temperature and daily number of deaths from all causes (excluding external) in Warsaw in periods of warm months (May - September) in years 2008-2013 were analysed. Analysis of dependence between temperature and mortality for whole population as well as for subpopulations with respect to sex and age demonstrated its similar U-shape. For each subpopulation a value of temperature at which dependence of mortality from temperature is changing its character from decreasing to increasing, interpreted as comfort conditions, was computed. Its value varied between 20 and 24oC with slight tendency to be higher for woman. Heat waves defined as at least three consecutive days with maximal temperature higher than 30oC have additional (to temperature effect itself ) effect on male mortality however, only in males aged 70 years and more the effect was statistically significant.

["Epidemiology of mental disorders and access to mental health care. EZOP - Poland" - research methodology]. / "Epidemiologia zaburzen psychiatrycznych i dostepnosc psychiatrycznej opieki zdrowotnej. EZOP - Polska" - metodologia badania.

AIM: Since the second half of the twentieth century, with the development of structured diagnostic tools, population based studies on epidemiology of mental disorders are carried out. A special role is played by World Mental Health Survey Initiative which brings together a group of countries from different continents in order to carry out research projects according to standard methodology using the Composite International Diagnostic Interview. Polish EZOP study, which was conducted in accordance with the guidelines of WMH joined that group. The project was implemented under the Norwegian Financial Mechanism and the Financial Mechanism of the European Economic Area. Its aim was to estimate the prevalence of mental disorders in the Polish population of adults, assess the distance to mental disorders and to obtain knowledge about the perception of psychiatric disorders and treatment. METHODS: The research tool was the Polish version of CIDI-WHO ver.3.0., which was developed for the project. The study was performed in accordance with the guidelines of WMH (cognitive interviews, interviewers training, standardization of field procedures) using electronic version of CIDI questionnaire (CAPI) within the 2-stages procedure in randomly selected representative sample of the Polish population aged 18-64. The quality of the study was systematically controlled and reported by MB SMG/KRC, and completed data (10,081 interviews) were sent to the Department-Centre of Monitoring and Analyses of Population Health NIPH-NIH. After the initial analysis data were sent to the analytical center of WMH, which applied additional cleaning tools and added new variables representing psychiatric diagnoses in DSM-IV and ICD-10.

Socioeconomic differences in the use of ill-defined causes of death in 16 European countries.

BACKGROUND: Cause-of-death data linked to information on socioeconomic position form one of the most important sources of information about health inequalities in many countries. The proportion of deaths from ill-defined conditions is one of the indicators of the quality of cause-of-death data. We investigated educational differences in the use of ill-defined causes of death in official mortality statistics. METHODS: Using age-standardized mortality rates from 16 European countries, we calculated the proportion of all deaths in each educational group that were classified as due to "Symptoms, signs and ill-defined conditions". We tested if this proportion differed across educational groups using Chi-square tests. RESULTS: The proportion of ill-defined causes of death was lower than 6.5% among men and 4.5% among women in all European countries, without any clear geographical pattern. This proportion statistically significantly differed by educational groups in several countries with in most cases a higher proportion among less than secondary educated people compared with tertiary educated people. CONCLUSIONS: We found evidence for educational differences in the distribution of ill-defined causes of death. However, the differences between educational groups were small suggesting that socioeconomic inequalities in cause-specific mortality in Europe are not likely to be biased.

Accidental drownings in Poland in 2000-2012.

OBJECTIVE: Drowning is a public health problem which is poorly recognized and analyzed in the Polish literature so far. MATERIAL AND METHODS: We analyzed all available sources of information on drowning in Poland, i.e. the data of the Central Statistical Office (causes of deaths, accidents at work) and Police Headquarters (circumstances of drowning). We discussed changes in drowning frequency, analyzing both time and space perspective as well as demographic profiles of fatal drowning cases. RESULTS: In 2000-2012, an estimated 12,702 persons died due to drowning in Poland (median of crude mortality rate - 2.6 per 100,000 population). Mortality due to drowning was on downward trend. Males aged 45-59 years, especially with vocational education, were at the highest risk of drowning. In the period analyzed, the highest and the lowest mortality rates were reported in Warminsko-mazurskie (median of mortality rate - 4.7) and Slaskie voivodships (median of mortality rate - 1.2), respectively. The highest drowning frequency was noted in the period from June to August in which a total of 5,981 cases were registered, i.e. 47.1% of all recorded drownings. CONCLUSIONS: A risk of death due to drowning in Poland is higher compared to the average in other EU countries. There is a necessity for public health intervention in this field. Furthermore, reporting systems regarding drowning in Poland should be unified.

Factors associated with satisfaction and perceived helpfulness of mental healthcare: a World Mental Health Surveys report.

BACKGROUND: Mental health service providers are increasingly interested in patient perspectives. We examined rates and predictors of patient-reported satisfaction and perceived helpfulness in a cross-national general population survey of adults with 12-month DSM-IV disorders who saw a provider for help with their mental health. METHODS: Data were obtained from epidemiological surveys in the World Mental Health Survey Initiative. Respondents were asked about satisfaction with treatments received from up to 11 different types of providers (very satisfied, satisfied, neither satisfied nor dissatisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, very dissatisfied) and helpfulness of the provider (a lot, some, a little, not at all). We modelled predictors of satisfaction and helpfulness using a dataset of patient-provider observations (n = 5,248). RESULTS: Most treatment was provided by general medical providers (37.4%), psychiatrists (18.4%) and psychologists (12.7%). Most patients were satisfied or very satisfied (65.9-87.5%, across provider) and helped a lot or some (64.4-90.3%). Spiritual advisors and healers were most often rated satisfactory and helpful. Social workers in human services settings were rated lowest on both dimensions. Patients also reported comparatively low satisfaction with general medical doctors and psychiatrists/psychologists and found general medical doctors less helpful than other providers. Men and students reported lower levels of satisfaction than women and nonstudents. Respondents with high education reported higher satisfaction and helpfulness than those with lower education. Type of mental disorder was unrelated to satisfaction but in some cases (depression, bipolar spectrum disorder, social phobia) was associated with low perceived helpfulness. Insurance was unrelated to either satisfaction or perceived helpfulness but in some cases was associated with elevated perceived helpfulness for a given level of satisfaction. CONCLUSIONS: Satisfaction with and perceived helpfulness of treatment varied as a function of type of provider, service setting, mental status, and socio-demographic variables. Invariably, caution is needed in combining data from multiple countries where there are cultural and service delivery variations. Even so, our findings underscore the utility of patient perspectives in treatment evaluation and may also be relevant in efforts to match patients to treatments.

Meeting statement: Call to action for step-change in health behaviours.

Background: Enabling, supporting and promoting positive health-related behaviours is critical in addressing the major public health challenges of our time, and the multifaceted nature of behaviours requires an evidence-based approach. This statement seeks to suggest how a much-needed enhanced use of behavioural and cultural science and insights for health could be advanced. Study design and methods: and methods: Public health authorities of Europe and Central Asia and international partner organizations in September 2023 met in Copenhagen, Denmark, to discuss the way forward. Drawing on 1) country reporting to WHO, 2) interview study with public health authorities and 3) the meeting deliberations, this meeting statement was developed. Results: The meeting statement presents a joint call for step-change accelerated use of evidence-based approaches for health behaviours. Actionable next steps for public health authorities and international and regional development partners in health are presented. Conclusions: The way forward involves increased resource allocation, integration of behavioural insights into health strategies, advocacy through case and cost-effectiveness examples and capacity building.

Clustering of the Adult Population According to Behavioural Health Risk Factors as the Focus of Community-Based Public Health Interventions in Poland.

Effective lifestyle health promotion interventions require the identification of groups sharing similar behavioural risk factors (BRF) and socio-demographic characteristics. This study aimed to identify these subgroups in the Polish population and check whether local authorities' health programmes meet their needs. Population data came from a 2018 question survey on a random representative sample of 3000 inhabitants. Four groups were identified with the TwoStep cluster analysis method. One of them ("Multi-risk") differed from the others and the general population by a high prevalence of numerous BRF: 59% [95% confidence interval: 56-63%] of its members smoke, 35% [32-38%] have alcohol problems, 79% [76-82%] indulge in unhealthy food, 64% [60-67%] do not practice recreational physical activity, and 73% [70-76%] are overweight. This group, with an average age of 50, was characterised by an excess of males (81% [79-84%]) and people with basic vocational education (53% [50-57%]). In 2018, only 40 out of all 228 health programmes in Poland addressed BRF in adults; only 20 referred to more than one habit. Moreover, access to these programmes was limited by formal criteria. There were no programmes dedicated to the reduction of BRF exclusively. The local governments focused on improving access to health services rather than on a pro-health change in individual behaviours.

Managed Care after Acute Myocardial Infarction (MC-AMI) - Poland's nationwide program of comprehensive post-MI care improves prognosis in 2-year follow-up. A single high-volume center intention-to-treat analysis.

BACKGROUND: Managed Care in Acute Myocardial Infarction (MC-AMI) is a program introduced in Poland aimed at comprehensive, scheduled, and supervised care for AMI patients to improve longterm prognosis. AIMS: Our study aimed to compare 24-month mortality and the incidence of major cardiovascular events (MACE: a composite of death, recurrent MI, and hospitalization for heart failure) in a cohort of AMI patients treated in the MC-AMI era (intention-to-treat analysis) vs. similar population treated before the MC-AMI era. METHODS: We analyzed 2323 consecutive patients with AMI: 1261 patients enrolled in the MC-AMI era (study group) and 1062 patients treated 12 months before the MC-AMI era (control group). In the study group, 57% of patients participated in MC-AMI while 43% of patients remained under standard care. The patients were followed up for 24 months. Mortality and MACE were recorded. RESULTS: Treatment in the MC-AMI era was related to a 30% reduction in all-cause mortality and a 14% reduction of MACE although it was not related to the reduction of hospitalization for heart failure (HF) or AMI in 24 months. The 24-month survival rate was the highest in MC-AMI enrolled patients while patients treated in the MC-AMI era but not enrolled had a similar prognosis to those treated before the MC-AMI era. Multivariable Cox regression analysis revealed the MC-AMI era to be inversely associated with mortality in 24-month follow-up (hazard ratio [HR], 0.49; 95% confidence interval [Cl], 0.38-0.65; P <0.001). CONCLUSIONS: AMI treatment in the MC-AMI era reduces 24-month mortality and MACE. Moreover, AMI treatment in MC-AMI is inversely related to mortality, MACE, and hospitalization for HF. The effect is pronounced in patients enrolled in MC-AMI.

Development and evaluation of a risk algorithm predicting alcohol dependence after early onset of regular alcohol use.

AIMS: Likelihood of alcohol dependence (AD) is increased among people who transition to greater levels of alcohol involvement at a younger age. Indicated interventions delivered early may be effective in reducing risk, but could be costly. One way to increase cost-effectiveness would be to develop a prediction model that targeted interventions to the subset of youth with early alcohol use who are at highest risk of subsequent AD. DESIGN: A prediction model was developed for DSM-IV AD onset by age 25 years using an ensemble machine-learning algorithm known as 'Super Learner'. Shapley additive explanations (SHAP) assessed variable importance. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: Respondents reporting early onset of regular alcohol use (i.e. by 17 years of age) who were aged 25 years or older at interview from 14 representative community surveys conducted in 13 countries as part of WHO's World Mental Health Surveys. MEASUREMENTS: The primary outcome to be predicted was onset of life-time DSM-IV AD by age 25 as measured using the Composite International Diagnostic Interview, a fully structured diagnostic interview. FINDINGS: AD prevalence by age 25 was 5.1% among the 10 687 individuals who reported drinking alcohol regularly by age 17. The prediction model achieved an external area under the curve [0.78; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.74-0.81] higher than any individual candidate risk model (0.73-0.77) and an area under the precision-recall curve of 0.22. Overall calibration was good [integrated calibration index (ICI) = 1.05%]; however, miscalibration was observed at the extreme ends of the distribution of predicted probabilities. Interventions provided to the 20% of people with highest risk would identify 49% of AD cases and require treating four people without AD to reach one with AD. Important predictors of increased risk included younger onset of alcohol use, males, higher cohort alcohol use and more mental disorders. CONCLUSIONS: A risk algorithm can be created using data collected at the onset of regular alcohol use to target youth at highest risk of alcohol dependence by early adulthood. Important considerations remain for advancing the development and practical implementation of such models.