Sex differences in trajectories of depression symptoms and associations with 10-year mortality in patients with stroke: the South London Stroke Register.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Depression is a common neuropsychiatric consequence of stroke. We identified trajectories of depression symptoms in men and women and examined their associations with 10-year all-cause mortality. METHODS: Data were obtained from the South London Stroke Register (1998-2016). Socio-demographic, stroke severity and clinical measures were collected during the acute phase. The Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale was used to screen for depression at 3 months after stroke and then annually. We used group-based trajectory models to identify trajectories of depression and Cox proportional hazards models to study the risk of mortality in them. RESULTS: We studied 1275 men and 1038 women. Three trajectories of depression symptoms were identified in men: I-M (42.12%), low and stable symptoms; II-M (46.51%), moderate increasing symptoms; and III-M (11.37%), severe persistent symptoms. Four trajectories were identified in women; I-F (29.09%), low symptoms; II-F (49.81%), moderate symptoms; III-F (16.28%), severe symptoms; and IV-F (4.82%), very severe symptoms, all with stable symptoms. The 10-year adjusted mortality hazard ratios in men were: 1.68 [95% confidence interval (CI), 1.38-2.04] and 2.62 (95% CI, 1.97-3.48) for trajectories II-M and III-M, respectively, compared with I-M. In women these were: 1.38 (95% CI, 1.09-1.75), 1.65 (95% CI, 1.23-2.20) and 2.81 (95% CI, 1.90-4.16) for trajectories II-F, III-F and IV-F, respectively, compared with I-F. CONCLUSIONS: Depression trajectories varied independent of sex. Severe symptoms in women were double those in men. Moderate symptoms in men became worse over time. Increased symptoms of depression were associated with higher mortality rates. Data on symptom progression may help a better long-term management of patients with stroke.

The long-term outcomes of depression up to 10 years after stroke; the South London Stroke Register.

BACKGROUND: Post-stroke depression is a frequent chronic and recurrent problem that starts shortly after stroke and affects patients in the long term. The health outcomes of depression after stroke are unclear. AIMS: (1) To investigate the associations between depression at 3 months and mortality, stroke recurrence, disability, cognitive impairment, anxiety and quality of life (QoL), up to 5 years post-stroke. (2) To investigate these associations in patients recovering from depression by year 1. (3) To investigate associations between depression at 5 years and these outcomes up to 10 years. METHODS: Data from the South London Stroke Register (1997-2010) were used. Patients (n at registration=3240) were assessed at stroke onset, 3 months after stroke and annually thereafter. Baseline data included sociodemographics and stroke severity measures. Follow-up assessments included anxiety and depression (Hospital Anxiety and Depression scale), disability, QoL and stroke recurrence. Multivariable regression models adjusted for age, gender, ethnicity, stroke severity and disability were used to investigate the association between depression and outcomes at follow-up. RESULTS: Depression at 3 months was associated with: increased mortality (HR: 1.27 (1.04 to 1.55)), disability (RRs up to 4.71 (2.96 to 7.48)), anxiety (ORs up to 3.49 (1.71 to 7.12)) and lower QoL (coefficients up to -8.16 (-10.23-6.15)) up to year 5. Recovery from depression by 1 year did not alter these risks to 5 years. Depression in year 5 was associated with anxiety (ORs up to 4.06 (1.92 to 8.58)) and QoL (coefficients up to -11.36 (-14.86 to -7.85)) up to year 10. CONCLUSIONS: Depression is independently associated with poor health outcomes.

Stroke unit care in clinical practice: an observational study in the Florence center of the European Registers of Stroke (EROS) Project.

BACKGROUND: Randomized trials and meta-analyses indicate positive effects of stroke unit (SU) care on survival and dependency of patients with stroke. However, data on the advantages of SU in 'real-world' settings are limited. We prospectively assessed, in a large University Hospital, the effect of SU versus other conventional wards (OCW) care on all-cause mortality, death or dependency, death or institutionalization. METHODS: In a prospective observational study in the European Registers of Stroke Project, patients hospitalized for first-in-a-lifetime stroke were evaluated for demographics, risk factors, clinical presentation, resource use, 3-month and 1-year survival, and functional outcome. RESULTS: Overall, 355 patients (54.1% men, mean age 73.4 ± 14.5 years) were registered, 140 (39.4%) admitted to the SU, and 215 (60.6%) to OCW. OCW patients were older, whilst SU patients had more severe strokes according to NIHSS (P for trend = 0.025). SU patients were significantly more often treated by specialists in stroke medicine, stroke nurses, physiotherapists and speech therapists (all P < 0.001), psychologists (P = 0.025), dietitians (P < 0.001), and social workers (P = 0.003). MRI, carotid, and transcranial Doppler were significantly more often performed in SU patients (all P < 0.001). Intravenous fluids (P = 0.003) and intravenous anticoagulation (P < 0.001) were more often prescribed in SU. Controlling for case-mix, SU significantly reduced 1-year mortality (P = 0.020), death or dependency at 3 months (P = 0.006) and 1 year (P = 0.043), and death or institutionalization at 3 months (P = 0.001) and 1 year (P = 0.009). CONCLUSIONS: We confirmed the benefits of SU care in a clinical setting. Further analyses should define the contribution of individual components of care to stroke outcome.

Patient-specific recovery patterns over time measured by dependence in activities of daily living after stroke and post-stroke care: the South London Stroke Register (SLSR).

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Data on patient-specific recovery after stroke are lacking and the effects of complex healthcare interventions on the course of recovery were not reported. To quantify the recovery pattern up to 1 year post-stroke and assess effects of evidence-based treatments on the patient-specific course of recovery allowing its prediction. METHODS: A total of 355 patients after first-ever stroke from the population-based South London Stroke Register (source population >270,000) participated in a substudy between August 2002 and October 2004. At 1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 8, 12, 26, and 52 weeks post-stroke, Barthel Index (BI; ranging from 0 to 20) was documented. Multilevel growth models allowing predictions for patients with specific characteristics were calculated. RESULTS: Mean age was 70 years, 48% were male and 23% died within the first year. The age-, gender- and stroke subtype-adjusted BI curve sharply increased until week 8 to 24 depending on patient characteristics and subsequently plateaued. Multivariable analysis identified stroke unit care, appropriate secondary prevention and physiotherapy for those with disabilities as independent predictors of improved functional ability over time (P < 0.05). Patients receiving stroke unit care additionally gained 4 BI points within 6 months compared with their counterparts (P = 0.004). CONCLUSIONS: Functional outcome in the general population showed an increase followed by a plateau. Care parameters reflecting guideline treatment independently improved recovery illustrating the beneficial effects of evidence-based interventions on recovery in an unbiased population.

[The German version of the satisfaction with stroke care questionnaire (SASC) for stroke patients]. / Entwicklung der deutschen Version der Patientenzufriedenheits-Skala (SASC) für den Einsatz bei Patienten nach Schlaganfall.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Patient satisfaction is an important objective to achieve in all parts of the health-care system. Patient satisfaction probably effects adherence to therapy. Until now, German-speaking countries were lacking a reliable instrument to investigate patient satisfaction. The aim of this study was to translate the English Satisfaction with Stroke Care Questionnaire (SASC), validated and created specifically for patients who had a stroke, and to assess the test-retest reliability of the German version. METHODS: The translation of the satisfaction questionnaire followed the protocol of the Medical Outcome Trust. The validation was carried out with continuously admitted inpatients who had suffered an acute stroke and were able to give written consent. Patients received two questionnaires for self-administration three months after hospital admission. The two questionnaires were compared for test-retest reliability. Reliability was measured using AC 1 values. RESULTS: Out of 202 patients continuously admitted to our hospital with the diagnosis of stroke, 33 could not give written informed consent due to aphasia (N = 29) or foreign-language (N = 4) or refused written consent (N = 8) or died during the following 3 months after the event (N = 14). Recall rate at three months was 71 % with 104 of the remaining 147 patients sending both questionnaires back. (Characteristics of responders: NIHSS = 3 [0 - 26], age = 71.5 [31 - 89] years, 40 % female, 48 % with five or more years of secondary school, 66 % paretic, 17 % with aphasia, 26 % with atrial fibrillation). The test-retest reliability of the German version of the self-administered satisfaction questionnaire was substantial (mean AC 1 = 0.612; range from 0.307 to 0.789). CONCLUSION: The German version of the SASC is a reliable tool to test patient satisfaction in stroke patients in the German language.

Sociodemographic differences in return to work after stroke: the South London Stroke Register (SLSR).

BACKGROUND: Loss of employment contributes significantly to the burden of stroke on individuals and society. There is limited information on factors influencing return to work after stroke. OBJECTIVES: To investigate the frequency and determinants of return to paid work after stroke in a multi-ethnic urban population. METHODS: Patterns of return to work were examined among people with first ever stroke registered in the population based South London Stroke Register. Employment status and functional outcome (Barthel Index (BI), Frenchay Activity Index (FAI)) were assessed 1 year after stroke. Associations between baseline characteristics and return to paid work were analysed by multivariable logistic regression analysis. RESULTS: Among 2874 patients with first ever strokes in 1995-2004, 400 (15%) were working before the stroke. At 1 year, 94 (35%) of 266 survivors had returned to paid work. Black ethnicity (OR 0.41; 95% CI 0.19 to 0.88), female sex (0.43; 0.21 to 0.91), older age (p<0.001), diabetes (0.25; 0.08 to 0.79) and dependence (BI < or = 19) in the acute phase (0.24; 0.11 to 0.49) were independently associated with lower odds of return to work in multivariable analysis. Better functional outcome at 1 year was associated with return to paid work (p<0.001) but 53% of 161 independent (BI > 19) and 39% of 96 very active (FAI > 30/45) individuals had not resumed work. CONCLUSIONS: There were important sociodemographic differences in return to work after stroke that were independent of clinical and service use variables included in the analysis. A large proportion of patients did not resume work despite excellent functional outcome.

Frequency and predictors for the risk of stroke recurrence up to 10 years after stroke: the South London Stroke Register.

BACKGROUND: Data estimating the risk of, and predictors for, long-term stroke recurrence are lacking. METHODS: Data were collected from the population-based South London Stroke Register. Patients were followed up for a maximum of 10 years. Kaplan-Meier estimates and Cox proportional hazards models were used to assess the cumulative risk of and predictors for first stroke recurrence. Variables analysed included sociodemographic factors, stroke subtype (defined as cerebral infarction, intracerebral haemorrhage and subarachnoid haemorrhage), stroke severity markers and prior-to-stroke risk factors. RESULTS: Between 1995 and 2004, 2874 patients with first-ever stroke were included. The mean follow-up period was 2.9 years. During 8311 person-years of follow-up, 303 recurrent events occurred. The cumulative risk of stroke recurrence at 1 year, 5 years and 10 years was 7.1%, 16.2% and 24.5% respectively. No differences in stroke recurrence were noted between the stroke subtypes. Factors increasing the risk of recurrence at 1 year were previous myocardial infarction (HR 1.73; 95% CI 1.08 to 2.78) and atrial fibrillation (HR 1.61; 95% CI 1.04 to 4.27); at 5 years, hypertension (HR 1.47; 95% CI 1.08 to 1.99) and atrial fibrillation (HR 1.79; 95% CI 1.29 to 2.49); and at 10 years, older age (p = 0.04), and hypertension (HR 1.38, 95% CI 1.04 to 1.82), myocardial infarction (HR 1.50, 95% CI 1.06 to 2.11) and atrial fibrillation (HR 1.51, 95% CI 1.09 to 2.09). CONCLUSIONS: Very-long-term risk of stroke recurrence is substantial. Different predictors for stroke recurrence were identified throughout the follow-up period. Risk factors prior to initial stroke have a significant role in predicting stroke recurrence up to 10 years.

An observational study of acute stroke care in four countries: the European registers of stroke study.

BACKGROUND: The European Registers Of Stroke (EROS) project aimed to assess outcomes of stroke care across Europe, relating these to both case mix information from disease-specific population registers and the quality of stroke care provided at each centre. This included comparing information on quality of care with direct observation of the stroke care process in 4 centres. METHODS: Direct non-participant observational methods were used on a purposive sample of first-stroke patients admitted within the past 14 days to an acute-stroke unit or ward that admits stroke patients in 4 urban hospital sites in London, UK, Dijon, France, Kaunas, Lithuania, and St. Petersburg, Russia. We recorded patient characteristics with levels of contact with multi-disciplinary team (MDT) members and contact with families and mobilization to build a collection of 'snapshots' of stroke care throughout the patients' day. One independent observer undertook all observations over 1 day. RESULTS: We observed differences between centres in the proportion of observations where patients were alone (lowest proportion in London, highest proportion in St. Petersburg) (p > 0.001), where patients had contact with MDT members (p > 0.001) and family, and where patients were out of bed/mobile (p > 0.001) (both with highest proportion in London, lowest proportion in St. Petersburg). CONCLUSIONS: Higher levels of contact with the MDT, family contact and mobilization were observed in the Western European centres than the Eastern European and Russian centres. Differences in case mix may explain some, but not all, of these differences. Direct observation has some limitations; however, it could be developed in future studies to help identify other key aspects of effective stroke care.

Predictors of survival after haemorrhagic stroke in a multi-ethnic population: the South London Stroke Register (SLSR).

OBJECTIVES: To identify the predictors of long-term survival after haemorrhagic stroke. METHODS: Data were collected within the population-based South London Stroke Register covering a multiethnic source population of 271,817 inhabitants (2001) in South London. Death data were collected at post-stroke follow-up. The impact of patients' demographic and clinical characteristics, ethnic origin, pre-stroke risk factors and acute treatment on long-term survival were investigated. Survival methods included Kaplan-Meier curves and Cox's proportional hazards model. RESULTS: Between January 1995 and December 2004, a total of 566 patients with first-ever haemorrhagic stroke (395 primary intracerebral haemorrhage; 171 subarachnoid haemorrhage) were registered. Mean age was 62.3 years; 365 (64.5%) were white, 132 (23.3%) were black and 69 (12.2%) were other or unknown ethnic origin; there were 1340 person-years of follow-up. After multivariable adjustment, age (p<0.001) and having diabetes (hazard ratio (HR), 1.69; 95% CI 1.06-2.70) were associated with increased risk of death. Patients with severe stroke (Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) <9) had an increased risk of death (HR 6.5; 95% CI 4.68 to 8.90) compared with those with mild stroke (GCS >12). Treatment on a stroke unit reduced the long-term risk of death (HR 0.70; 95% CI 0.50 to 0.98). Black patients had a reduced risk of death (HR 0.62; 95% CI 0.42 to 0.92) compared with white patients. CONCLUSIONS: Age, diabetes, stroke severity and stroke unit care influenced the long-term risk of death after haemorrhagic stroke. An independent survival advantage was observed in black patients. These factors can be utilised for clinical predictions but the cause of the observations in black patients remains unclear.

Variations in the use of diagnostic procedures after acute stroke in Europe: results from the BIOMED II study of stroke care.

Valid classification of stroke is essential to initiate effective acute management and early secondary prevention strategies. To accurately evaluate stroke subtype a number of diagnostic procedures have to be performed. This study sought to investigate variations in use of diagnostic procedures across selected European hospitals. First-ever stroke patients were sampled over a 1-year period through 11 hospital-based registers across 10 European countries. We defined a diagnostic standard for valid aetiological classification of ischemic stroke including brain imaging, vascular imaging and echocardiography. The impact of socio-demographic, clinical and structural characteristics on performance of the diagnostic standard was assessed using multivariate logistic regression analyses. A total of 1721 patients were included in the study. 83.1% received brain imaging, ranging from 32.8% to 100%. The diagnostic standard was performed in 40.4% of stroke patients, ranging from 0% to 77.2%. Patients with increasing age (P < 0.001) and with more severe strokes (P = 0.001) were less probably to receive the diagnostic standard. Patients treated in stroke units and neurological departments were more frequently investigated with the diagnostic standard (P < 0.001). Less than half of hospitalized stroke patients across Europe underwent diagnostic procedures to allow for aetiological classification of stroke, which may hamper the initiation of effective early management and secondary prevention.

Air pollution and the incidence of ischaemic and haemorrhagic stroke in the South London Stroke Register: a case-cross-over analysis.

BACKGROUND: Few European studies investigating associations between short-term exposure to air pollution and incident stroke have considered stroke subtypes. Using information from the South London Stroke Register for 2005-2012, we investigated associations between daily concentrations of gaseous and particulate air pollutants and incident stroke subtypes in an ethnically diverse area of London, UK. METHODS: Modelled daily pollutant concentrations based on a combination of measurements and dispersion modelling were linked at postcode level to incident stroke events stratified by haemorrhagic and ischaemic subtypes. The data were analysed using a time-stratified case-cross-over approach. Conditional logistic regression models included natural cubic splines for daily mean temperature and daily mean relative humidity, a binary term for public holidays and a sine-cosine annual cycle. Of primary interest were same day mean concentrations of particulate matter <2.5 and <10 µm in diameter (PM2.5, PM10), ozone (O3), nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and NO2+nitrogen oxide (NOX). RESULTS: Our analysis was based on 1758 incident strokes (1311 were ischaemic and 256 were haemorrhagic). We found no evidence of an association between all stroke or ischaemic stroke and same day exposure to PM2.5, PM10, O3, NO2 or NOX. For haemorrhagic stroke, we found a negative association with PM10 suggestive of a 14.6% (95% CI 0.7% to 26.5%) fall in risk per 10 µg/m3 increase in pollutant. CONCLUSIONS: Using data from the South London Stroke Register, we found no evidence of a positive association between outdoor air pollution and incident stroke or its subtypes. These results, though in contrast to recent meta-analyses, are not inconsistent with the mixed findings of other UK studies.

Natural history and effects on 2-year outcomes of urinary incontinence after stroke.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: We sought to describe the natural history of poststroke incontinence and estimate its effect on survival and 2-year outcomes in stroke survivors. METHODS: Two hundred thirty-five incident cases of stroke in 1995 were classified by continence status at 10 days after stroke. Age, sex, ethnicity, diabetes, hypertension, atrial fibrillation, premorbid disability, and Oxfordshire Community Stroke Project classification were recorded. Outcome data collected at 3 months and at 1 and 2 years included disability, case-fatality rates, and institutionalization rates. Disability was classified as severe, moderate, mild, or independent using the Barthel Index (without its "continence" component: 0-9, 10-14, 15-17, and 18, respectively) and Frenchay Activity Index (0-15, 16-30, and 31-45). RESULTS: Of 235 cases, 95 were initially incontinent (group 1); 140 were continent (group 2). At the initial, 3-month, and 1- and 2-year assessments, incontinence was recorded in 95 patients (40%), 34 (19%), 23 (15%), and 12 (10%), respectively. In univariate analyses, the 2 groups were not different in terms of demographic factors and risk factors. Compared with group 2, group 1 patients were more likely to have atrial fibrillation (28% versus 16%; P:=0.02). Multivariate analyses showed that age >75 years (OR 15.9; CI 2.2 to 116.2), dysphagia (OR 4.03; CI 1.85 to 8.73), motor weakness (OR 5.41; CI 1.38 to 21.1) and visual field defects (OR 4.78; CI 1.78 to 12.9) were all significantly associated with incontinence. Incontinence was less common in lacunar infarctions (OR 0.12; CI 0.02 to 0.62). At 2 years, compared with group 2, group 1 had higher case-fatality rates (67% versus 20%; P:<0.001), higher institutionalization rates (39% versus 16%; P:=0.007), and greater disability (Barthel [0-9]: 39% versus 5%; P:<0.001; Frenchay [0-15]: 75% versus 37%; P:=0.001). Death or disability at 2 years was worse in subjects with initial incontinence(OR 4.43; CI 1.76 to 11.2). CONCLUSIONS: Incontinence remains a prevalent condition 2 years after stroke. Initial incontinence was associated with age >75 years, dysphagia, visual field defect, and motor weakness. Poststroke incontinence adversely affected 2-year stroke survival, disability, and institutionalization rates.

Influence of raised plasma osmolality on clinical outcome after acute stroke.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Abnormal physiological parameters after acute stroke may induce early neurological deterioration. Studies of the effect of dehydration on stroke outcome are limited. We examined the association of raised plasma osmolality on stroke outcome at 3 months and the change of plasma osmolality with hydration during the first week after stroke. METHODS: Acute stroke patients had their plasma osmolality measured at admission and at days 1, 3, and 7. Maximum plasma osmolality and the area under curve (AUC) were also calculated during the first week. Patients were stratified according to how they were hydrated: orally, intravenously, or both. Outcome included survival at 3 months after stroke. Logistic regression was performed to examine the association between raised plasma osmolality (>296 mOsm/kg) and survival, adjusting for stroke severity. Linear regression was performed to examine the pattern of plasma osmolality across hydration groups. RESULTS: One hundred sixty-seven patients were included. Mean admission (300 mOsm/kg, SD 11.4), maximum (308.1 mOsm/kg, SD 17.1), and AUC (298.3 mOsm/kg, SD 11.7) plasma osmolality were significantly higher in those who died compared with survivors (293.1 mOsm/kg [SD 8.2], 297.7 mOsm/kg [SD 8. 7], and 291.7 mOsm/kg [SD 8.1], respectively; P:<0.0001). Admission plasma osmolality >296 mOsm/kg was significantly associated with mortality (OR 2.4, 95% CI 1.0 to 5.9). In patients hydrated intravenously, there was no significant fall in plasma osmolality compared with patients hydrated orally (P:=0.68). CONCLUSIONS: Raised plasma osmolality on admission is associated with stroke mortality, after correcting for case mix. Correction of dehydration after stroke requires a more systematic approach. Trials are required to determine whether correcting dehydration after stroke improves outcome.

Variations in stroke incidence and survival in 3 areas of Europe. European Registries of Stroke (EROS) Collaboration.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Comparison of incidence and case-fatality rates for stroke in different countries may increase our understanding of the etiology of the disease, its natural history, and management. Within the context of an aging population and the trend for governments to set targets to reduce stroke risk and death from stroke, prospective comparison of such data across countries may identify what drives the variation in risk and outcome. METHODS: Population-based stroke registers, using multiple sources of notification, ascertained cases of first in a lifetime stroke between 1995 and 1997 for all age groups. The study populations were in Erlangen, Germany; Dijon, France; and London, UK. Crude incidence rates were age-standardized to the European population for comparative purposes. Case-fatality rates up to 1 year after the stroke were obtained, and logistic regression adjusting for age group, sex, and pathological subtype of stroke was used to compare survival in the 3 communities. RESULTS: A total of 2074 strokes were registered over the 3 years. The age-standardized rate to the European population was 100.4 (95% CI 91.7 to 109.1) per 100 000 in Dijon, 123.9 (95% CI 115.6 to 132.2) in London, and 136.4 (95% CI 124.9 to 147.9) in Erlangen. Both crude and adjusted rates were lowest in Dijon, France. The incidence rate ratio, with Dijon as the baseline comparison (1), was 1.21 (95% CI 1.09 to 1.34) in London and 1.37 (95% CI 1.22 to 1.54) in Erlangen (P:<0.0001). There were significant differences in the proportion of the subtypes of stroke between populations, with London having lower rates of cerebral infarction and higher rates of subarachnoid hemorrhage and unclassified stroke (P:<0.001). Case-fatality rates varied significantly between centers at 1 year, after adjustment for age, sex, and subtype of stroke (35% overall, 34% Erlangen, 41% London, and 27% Dijon; P:<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: The impact of stroke is considerable, and the risk of stroke varies significantly between populations in Europe as does the risk of death. The striking differences in survival require clarification but lend weight to the evidence that stroke management may differ between northern and central Europe and influence outcome.

A new method for predicting recovery after stroke.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Several prognostic factors have been identified for outcome after stroke. However, there is a need for empirically derived models that can predict outcome and assist in medical management during rehabilitation. To be useful, these models should take into account early changes in recovery and individual patient characteristics. We present such a model and demonstrate its clinical utility. METHODS: Data on functional recovery (Barthel Index) at 0, 2, 4, 6, and 12 months after stroke were collected prospectively for 299 stroke patients at 2 London hospitals. Multilevel models were used to model recovery trajectories, allowing for day-to-day and between-patient variation. The predictive performance of the model was validated with an independent cohort of 710 stroke patients. RESULTS: Urinary incontinence, sex, prestroke disability, and dysarthria affected the level of outcome after stroke; age, dysphasia, and limb deficit also affected the rate of recovery. Applying this to the validation cohort, the average difference between predicted and observed Barthel Index was -0.4, with 90% limits of agreement from -7 to 6. Predicted Barthel Index lay within 3 points of the observed Barthel Index on 49% of occasions and improved to 69% when patients' recovery histories were taken into account. CONCLUSIONS: The model predicts recovery at various stages of rehabilitation in ways that could improve clinical decision making. Predictions can be altered in light of observed recovery. This model is a potentially useful tool for comparing individual patients with average recovery trajectories. Patients at elevated risk could be identified and interventions initiated.

Estimates of the prevalence of acute stroke impairments and disability in a multiethnic population.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: The goals of the present study were to estimate the prevalence of acute impairments and disability in a multiethnic population of first-ever stroke and to identify differences in impairment and early disability between pathological and Bamford subtypes. Associations between impairments and death and disability at 3 months were identified. METHODS: Impairments that occur at the time of maximum neurological deficit were recorded, and disability according to the Barthel Index (BI) was assessed 1 week and 3 months after stroke in patients in the South London Stroke Register: RESULTS: Of 1259 registered patients, 6% had 1 or 2, 31.1% had 3 to 5, 50.6% had 6 to 10, and 10.6% had >10 impairments. Common impairments were weakness (upper limb, 77.4%), urinary incontinence (48.2%), impaired consciousness (44.7%), dysphagia (44.7%), and impaired cognition (43.9%). Patients with total anterior circulation infarcts had the highest age-adjusted prevalence of weakness, dysphagia, urinary incontinence, cognitive impairment, and disability. Patients with subarachnoid hemorrhage had the highest rates of coma. Patients with lacunar stroke had the high prevalence of weakness but were least affected by disability, incontinence, and cognitive dysfunction. Blacks had higher age- and sex-adjusted rates of disability in ischemic stroke (BI <20, odds ratio 2.76, 95% CI 1.47 to 5.21, P=0.002; BI <15, odds ratio 1.8, 95% CI 1.45 to 2.81, P=0.01) but impairment rates similar to those of whites. On multivariable analysis, incontinence, coma, dysphagia, cognitive impairment, and gaze paresis were independently associated with severe disability (BI <10) and death at 3 months. CONCLUSIONS: The extent of these findings indicates that an acute assessment of impairments and disability is necessary to determine the appropriate nursing and rehabilitation needs of patients with stroke.

A comparison of the costs and survival of hospital-admitted stroke patients across Europe.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Policy makers require evidence on the costs and outcomes of different ways of organizing stroke care. This study compared the costs and survival of different ways of providing stroke care. METHODS: Hospitalized stroke patients from 13 European centers were included, with demographic, case-mix, and resource use variables measured for each patient. Unit costs were collected and converted into US dollars using the purchasing power parity (PPP) index. Cox and linear regression analyses were used to compare survival and costs between the centers adjusting for case mix. RESULTS: A total of 1847 patients were included in the study. After case-mix adjustment, the mean predicted costs ranged from $466 [95% CI 181 to 751] in Riga (Latvia) to $8512 [7696 to 9328] in Copenhagen (Denmark), which reflected differences in unit costs, and resource use. The mean length of hospitalization ranged from 8.3 days in Menorca (Spain) to 36.8 days in Turku B (Finland). In the 3 Finnish centers at least 80% of patients were admitted to wards providing organized stroke care, which was not provided at the centers in Almada (Portugal), Menorca, or Riga. Patients in Turku A and Turku B were less likely to die than those in Riga, Warsaw (Poland), or Menorca. The adjusted hazard ratios were 0.18 [0.10 to 0.32] for Turku A, 0.18 [0.10 to 0.32] for Turku B, 0.68 [0.48 to 0.96] for Warsaw, and 0.56 [0.33 to 0.96] for Menorca, all compared with Riga. CONCLUSIONS: The cost of stroke care varies across Europe because of differences in unit costs, and resource use. Further research is needed to assess which ways of organizing stroke care are the most cost-effective.

Cerebrovascular risk factors and stroke subtypes: differences between ethnic groups.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: The excess risk of stroke seen in the black population has not been explained by differences in age, sex, and social class, although differences in the frequency of cerebrovascular risk factors may be partly responsible. Data on risk factor profiles for the UK black stroke population are sparse. Previous studies have contrasted the association of cerebrovascular risk factors between hemorrhagic and ischemic stroke and between etiologic subtypes of infarct. The relationship of cerebrovascular risk factors to clinical classifications of stroke, however, has been little examined. The aim of this study was to establish the frequency of cerebrovascular risk factors in patients with first-ever strokes in the South London, UK, population and to examine the relationship of these risk factors to both ethnicity and Bamford stroke subtype. METHODS: The study included 1254 first-ever stroke patients registered in the South London Community Stroke Register between 1995 and 1998; 995 patients (79.3%) were white, 203 (16.2%) were black, 52 (4.1%) were of other ethnic origin, and 4 (0. 3%) were of unknown ethnic origin. RESULTS: In multivariate analysis, increasing age (P:<0.001) and previous cerebrovascular disease (P:=0.007) were independently associated with infarct rather than hemorrhage. Atrial fibrillation was associated with all nonlacunar (P:=0.02), total anterior circulation (P:=0.007), and partial anterior circulation infarcts (P:=0.02) compared with the lacunar group. All other risk factors were similar between infarct subtypes. Risk factors for hemorrhage subtypes were similar in multivariate analysis; increasing age was the only factor associated with primary intracerebral hemorrhage over subarachnoid hemorrhage (P:<0.001). The black stroke population suffered significantly less atrial fibrillation (P:=0.001) and engaged in less alcohol excess (P:<0. 001) and were less likely to have ever smoked (P:<0.001). Hypertension (P:<0.001) and diabetes mellitus (P:<0.001) were more prevalent in the black population. CONCLUSIONS: Physiological cerebrovascular risk factors for the UK black population are similar to those of the US black population, but behavioral risk factors differ. Risk factors differ between ethnic groups in the United Kingdom, and future measures for secondary prevention should take this into consideration. Bamford clinical subtypes bear little association with cerebrovascular risk factors. Other classification systems, such as those that classify stroke by etiology, may be more useful in explaining the excess risk of stroke and the scope for its prevention.

Characteristics, outcome, and care of stroke associated with atrial fibrillation in Europe: data from a multicenter multinational hospital-based registry (The European Community Stroke Project).

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: The role of atrial fibrillation (AF) as a determinant of stroke outcome is not well established. Studies focusing on this topic relied on relatively small samples of patients, scarcely representative of the older age groups. We aimed at evaluating clinical characteristics, care, and outcome of stroke associated with AF in a large European sample. METHODS: In a European Concerted Action involving 7 countries, 4462 patients hospitalized for first-in-a-lifetime stroke were evaluated for demographics, risk factors, clinical presentation, resource use, and 3-month survival, disability (Barthel Index), and handicap (Rankin scale). RESULTS: AF was present in 803 patients (18.0%). AF patients, compared with those without AF, were older, were more frequently female, and more often had experienced a previous myocardial infarction; they were less often diabetics, alcohol consumers, and smokers (all P:<0.001). At 3 months, 32.8% of the AF patients were dead compared with 19.9% of the non-AF patients (P:<0.001). With control for baseline variables, AF increased by almost 50% the probability of remaining disabled (multivariate odds ratio 1.43, 95% CI 1.13 to 1.80) or handicapped (multivariate odds ratio 1.51, 95% CI 1.13 to 2.02). Before stroke, only 8.4% of AF patients were on anticoagulants. The chance of being anticoagulated was reduced by 4% per year of increasing age. AF patients underwent CT scan and other diagnostic procedures less frequently and received less physiotherapy or occupational therapy. CONCLUSIONS: Stroke associated with AF has a poor prognosis in terms of death and function. Prevention and care of stroke with AF is a major challenge for European health systems.

Corticotropin releasing hormone-binding protein (CRH-BP): plasma levels decrease during the third trimester of normal human pregnancy.

In pregnancy, maternal plasma corticotropin releasing hormone (CRH) concentrations rise substantially in the third trimester and fall rapidly post-partum. A binding protein (BP) specific for CRH exists in the human circulation which inactivates CRH, thus possibly explaining why maternal ACTH does not rise outside normal limits throughout gestation. We here describe the measurement of CRH-BP directly in plasma during human pregnancy using a radioimmunoassay that is not affected by the presence of the high plasma levels of CRH that occur at this time. In 119 healthy non-pregnant individuals, mean CRH-BP levels were 4.46 nmol/L +/- 1.0 (SD), with a wide range of 1.81-7.24 nmol/L. Plasma CRH-BP in 34 pregnant women randomly sampled during the first and second trimesters also averaged 4.46 nmol/L +/- 1.54, with individual values ranging from 1.59-7.51 nmol/L and there was no correlation of CRH-BP levels with gestational age. In a group of 14 women sampled sequentially throughout the third trimester, plasma CRH-BP averaged 4.56 nmol/L +/- 1.70 at 30-35 weeks gestation and fell dramatically to 1.84 nmol/L +/- 0.43 at weeks 38-40 (P < 0.001). The post partum recovery in CRH-BP levels occurred within 48 hours of delivery. These results indicate that there is an increase in the availability of free, potentially bioactive CRH at term to stimulate the release of ACTH from the maternal pituitary and/or to act at a peripheral, non-pituitary CRH receptor(s).