Prevalence and natural history of depression after stroke: A systematic review and meta-analysis of observational studies.

BACKGROUND: Depression is the most frequent psychiatric condition after stroke and is associated with negative health outcomes. We aim to undertake a systematic review and meta-analysis of the prevalence and natural history of depression after stroke. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Studies published up to 4 November 2022 on Medline, Embase, PsycINFO, and Web of Science Core Collection were searched. We included studies of adults with stroke, where depression was assessed at a prespecified time point. Studies excluding people with aphasia and history of depression are excluded. Critical Appraisal Skills Programme(CASP) cohort study tool was used to assess risk of bias. A total of 77 studies were included in the pooled estimates of the prevalence of poststroke depression (PSD). The overall prevalence of depression was 27% (95% CI 25 to 30). Prevalence of depression was 24% (95% CI 21 to 28) by clinical interview and 29% (95% CI 25 to 32) by rating scales. Twenty-four studies with more than one assessment time point reported the natural history of PSD. Among people who were depressed within 3 months of stroke, 53% (95% CI 47 to 59) experienced persistent depression, while 44% (95% CI 38 to 50) recovered. The incidence of later depression (3 to 12 months after stroke) was 9% (95% CI 7 to 12). The cumulative incidence during 1 year after stroke was 38% (95% CI 33 to 43), and the majority (71% (95% CI 65 to 76)) of depression had onset within 3 months after stroke. The main limitation of the present study is that excluding people in source studies with severe impairments may produce imprecise estimates of the prevalence of PSD. CONCLUSIONS: In this study, we observed that stroke survivors with early-onset depression (within 3 months after stroke) are at high risks for remaining depressed and make up two-thirds of the incident cases during 1 year after stroke. This highlights the need for ongoing clinical monitoring of patients depressed shortly after stroke. TRIAL REGISTRATION: PROSPERO CRD42022314146.

Stroke in Sierra Leone. the stroke risk factors for people with HIV: A prospective case-control study.

BACKGROUND: HIV infection rates are relatively low in Sierra Leone and in West Africa but the contribution of HIV to the risk factors for stroke and outcomes is unknown. In this study, we examined stroke types, presentation, risk factors and outcome in HIV stroke patients compared with controls. METHODS: We used data from the Stroke in Sierra Leone Study at 2 tertiary hospitals in Freetown, Sierra Leone. A case control design was used to compare stroke type, presentation, risk factors and outcome in sero-positive HIV patients with HIV negative stroke controls. Controls were matched for age and gender and a 1:4 ratio cases to controls was used to optimize power. Analysis was performed using the Pearson x2 for categorical variable, Paired-T test and Mann-Whitney U test for continuous variables. A p-value of less than 0.05 was taken as the level of statistical significance. RESULTS: Of 511 (51.8%) stroke patients tested for HIV, 36 (7.1%) were positive. Univariate unmatched analysis showed a stroke mean age of 49 years in HIV-positive versus 58 years in HIV-negative population (p = <0.001). In the case-control group, ischaemic stroke is the major type reported in both populations, HIV-negative population: 77 (53.5%) versus HIV-positive: 25 (69.4%) (p = 0.084). Hypertension is the most prevalent risk factor in both groups, HIV-positive: 23 (63.9%) versus HIV-negative: 409 (86.1%) (p = 0.001). Lower CD4+ count is associated in-hospital mortality (p = <0.001). CONCLUSION: These findings support the current call for timely management of stroke and HIV through integrated care.

Natural history of depression up to 18 years after stroke: a population-based South London Stroke Register study.

Background: Current evidence on the long-term natural history of post-stroke depression (PSD) is limited. We aim to determine the prevalence, incidence, duration and recurrence rates of depression to 18-years after stroke and assess differences by onset-time and depression severity. Methods: Data were from the South London Stroke Register (1995-2019, N = 6641 at registration). Depression was defined using the Hospital Anxiety and Depression scale (scores > 7 = depression) at 3-months, then annually to 18-years after stroke. We compared early- (3-months post-stroke) vs late-onset depression (1-year) and initial mild (HADS scores > 7) vs severe depression (scores > 10). Findings: 3864 patients were assessed for depression at any time-points during the follow-up (male:55.4% (2141), median age: 68.0 (20.4)), with the number ranging from 2293 at 1-year to 145 at 18-years after stroke. Prevalence of PSD ranged from 31.3% (28.9-33.8) to 41.5% (33.6-49.3). The cumulative incidence of depression was 59.4% (95% CI 57.8-60.9), of which 87.9% (86.5-89.2) occurred within 5-years after stroke. Of patients with incident PSD at 3-months after stroke, 46.6% (42.1-51.2) recovered after 1 year. Among those recovered, 66.7% (58.0-74.5) experienced recurrent depression and 94.4% (87.5-98.2) of recurrences occurred within 5-years since recovery. Similar estimates were observed in patients with PSD at 1-year. 34.3% (27.9-41.1) of patients with severe depression had recovered at the next time-point, compared to 56.7% (50.5-62.8) with mild depression. Recurrence rate at 1-year after recovery was higher in patients with severe depression (52.9% (35.1-70.2)) compared to mild depression (23.5% (14.1-35.4)) (difference: 29.4% (7.6-51.2), p = 0.003). Interpretation: Long-term depressive status may be established by 5-years post-onset. Early- and late-onset depression presented similar natural history, while severe depression had a longer duration and quicker recurrence than mild depression. These estimates were limited to alive patients completing the depression assessment, who tended to have less severe stroke than excluded patients, so may be underestimated and not generalizable to all stroke survivors. Funding: National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR202339).

Stroke in Sierra Leone: Case fatality rate and functional outcome after stroke in Freetown.

BACKGROUND: There is limited information on long-term outcomes after stroke in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Current estimates of case fatality rate (CFR) in SSA are based on small sample sizes with varying study design and report heterogeneous results. AIMS: We report CFR and functional outcomes from a large, prospective, longitudinal cohort of stroke patients in Sierra Leone and describe factors associated with mortality and functional outcome. METHODS: A prospective longitudinal stroke register was established at both adult tertiary government hospitals in Freetown, Sierra Leone. It recruited all patients ⩾ 18 years with stroke, using the World Health Organization definition, from May 2019 until October 2021. To reduce selection bias onto the register, all investigations were paid by the funder and outreach conducted to raise awareness of the study. Sociodemographic data, National Institute of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS), and Barthel Index (BI) were collected on all patients on admission, at 7 days, 90 days, 1 year, and 2 years post stroke. Cox proportional hazards models were constructed to identify factors associated with all-cause mortality. A binomial logistic regression model reports odds ratio (OR) for functional independence at 1 year. RESULTS: A total of 986 patients with stroke were included, of which 857 (87%) received neuroimaging. Follow-up rate was 82% at 1 year, missing item data were <1% for most variables. Stroke cases were equally split by sex and mean age was 58.9 (SD: 14.0) years. About 625 (63%) were ischemic, 206 (21%) primary intracerebral hemorrhage, 25 (3%) subarachnoid hemorrhage, and 130 (13%) were of undetermined stroke type. Median NIHSS was 16 (9-24). CFR at 30 days, 90 days, 1 year, and 2 years was 37%, 44%, 49%, and 53%, respectively. Factors associated with increased fatality at any timepoint were male sex (hazard ratio (HR): 1.28 (1.05-1.56)), previous stroke (HR: 1.34 (1.04-1.71)), atrial fibrillation (HR: 1.58(1.06-2.34)), subarachnoid hemorrhage (HR: 2.31 (1.40-3.81)), undetermined stroke type (HR: 3.18 (2.44-4.14)), and in-hospital complications (HR: 1.65 (1.36-1.98)). About 93% of patients were completely independent prior to their stroke, declining to 19% at 1 year after stroke. Functional improvement was most likely to occur between 7 and 90 days post stroke with 35% patients improving, and 13% improving between 90 days to 1 year. Increasing age (OR: 0.97 (0.95-0.99)), previous stroke (OR: 0.50 (0.26-0.98)), NIHSS (OR: 0.89 (0.86-0.91)), undetermined stroke type (OR: 0.18 (0.05-0.62)), and ⩾1 in-hospital complication (OR: 0.52 (0.34-0.80)) were associated with lower OR of functional independence at 1 year. Hypertension (OR: 1.98 (1.14-3.44)) and being the primary breadwinner of the household (OR: 1.59 (1.01-2.49)) were associated with functional independence at 1 year. CONCLUSION: Stroke affected younger people and resulted in high rates of fatality and functional impairment relative to global averages. Key clinical priorities for reducing fatality include preventing stroke-related complications through evidence-based stroke care, improved detection and management of atrial fibrillation, and increasing coverage of secondary prevention. Further research into care pathways and interventions to encourage care seeking for less severe strokes should be prioritized, including reducing the cost barrier for stroke investigations and care.

The economic burden of stroke care in England, Wales and Northern Ireland: Using a national stroke register to estimate and report patient-level health economic outcomes in stroke.

INTRODUCTION: Stroke registries are used in many settings to measure stroke treatment and outcomes, but rarely include data on health economic outcomes. We aimed to extend the Sentinel Stroke National Audit Programme registry of England, Wales and Northern Ireland to derive and report patient-level estimates of the cost of stroke care. METHODS: An individual patient simulation model was built to estimate health and social care costs at one and five years after stroke, and the cost-benefits of thrombolysis and early supported discharge. Costs were stratified according to age, sex, stroke type (ischaemic or primary intracerebral haemorrhage) and stroke severity. The results were illustrated using data on all patients with stroke included in Sentinel Stroke National Audit Programme from April 2015 to March 2016 (n = 84,184). RESULTS: The total cost of health and social care for patients with acute stroke each year in England, Wales and Northern Ireland was £3.60 billion in the first five years after admission (mean per patient cost: £46,039). There was fivefold variation in the magnitude of costs between patients, ranging from £19,101 to £107,336. Costs increased with older age, increasing stroke severity and intracerebral hemorrhage stroke. Increasing the proportion of eligible patients receiving thrombolysis or early supported discharge was estimated to save health and social care costs by five years after stroke. DISCUSSION: The cost of stroke care is large and varies widely between patients. Increasing the proportion of eligible patients receiving thrombolysis or early supported discharge could contribute to reducing the financial burden of stroke. CONCLUSION: Extending stroke registers to report individualised data on costs may enhance their potential to support quality improvement and research.

Patient-specific prediction of functional recovery after stroke.

Background and aims Clinical predictive models for stroke recovery could offer the opportunity of targeted early intervention and more specific information for patients and carers. In this study, we developed and validated a patient-specific prognostic model for monitoring recovery after stroke and assessed its clinical utility. Methods Four hundred and ninety-five patients from the population-based South London Stroke Register were included in a substudy between 2002 and 2004. Activities of daily living were assessed using Barthel Index) at one, two, three, four, six, eight, 12, 26, and 52 weeks after stroke. Penalized linear mixed models were developed to predict patients' functional recovery trajectories. An external validation cohort included 1049 newly registered stroke patients between 2005 and 2011. Prediction errors on discrimination and calibration were assessed. The potential clinical utility was evaluated using prognostic accuracy measurements and decision curve analysis. Results Predictive recovery curves showed good accuracy, with root mean squared deviation of 3 Barthel Index points and a R2 of 83% up to one year after stroke in the external cohort. The negative predictive values of the risk of poor recovery (Barthel Index <8) at three and 12 months were also excellent, 96% (95% CI [93.6-97.4]) and 93% [90.8-95.3], respectively, with a potential clinical utility measured by likelihood ratios (LR+:17 [10.8-26.8] at three months and LR+:11 [6.5-17.2] at 12 months). Decision curve analysis showed an increased clinical benefit, particularly at threshold probabilities of above 5% for predictive risk of poor outcomes. Conclusions A recovery curves tool seems to accurately predict progression of functional recovery in poststroke patients.

Associations between exhaust and non-exhaust particulate matter and stroke incidence by stroke subtype in South London.

BACKGROUND: Airborne particulate matter (PM) consists of particles from diverse sources, including vehicle exhausts. Associations between short-term PM changes and stroke incidence have been shown. Cumulative exposures over several months, or years, are less well studied; few studies examined ischaemic subtypes or PM source. AIMS: This study combines a high resolution urban air quality model with a population-based stroke register to explore associations between long-term exposure to PM and stroke incidence. METHOD: Data from the South London Stroke Register from 2005-2012 were included. Poisson regression explored association between stroke incidence and long-term (averaged across the study period) exposure to PM2.5(PM<2.5µm diameter) and PM10(PM<10µm), nitric oxide, nitrogen dioxide, nitrogen oxides and ozone, at the output area level (average population=309). Estimates were standardised for age and sex and adjusted for socio-economic deprivation. Models were stratified for ischaemic and haemorrhagic strokes and further broken down by Oxford Community Stroke Project classification and Trial of ORG 10172 in Acute Stroke Treatment (TOAST) classification. RESULTS: 1800 strokes were recorded (incidence=42.6/100,000 person-years). No associations were observed between PM and overall ischaemic or haemorrhagic incidence. For an interquartile range increase in PM2.5, there was a 23% increase in incidence (Incidence rate ratio=1.23 (95%CI: 1.03-1.44)) of total anterior circulation infarcts (TACI) and 20% increase for PM2.5 from exhausts (1.20(1.01-1.41)). There were similar associations with PM10, overall (1.21(1.01-1.44)) and from exhausts (1.20(1.01-1.41)). TACI incidence was not associated with non-exhaust sources. There were no associations with other stroke subtypes or pollutants. CONCLUSION: Outdoor air pollution, particularly that arising from vehicle exhausts, may increase risk of TACI but not other stroke subtypes.