RESUMO
BACKGROUND AND AIMS: The prognostic role of noninvasive assessments of liver fibrosis has been evolving. Our aim was to investigate the prognostic value of liver stiffness measurement (LSM) with transient elastography and serum-based Hui index to predict hepatic events and deaths in chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients. METHODS: The main prospective cohort included 1555 consecutive CHB patients referred for transient elastography examination; a subgroup of 980 patients underwent follow-up assessments at least 3 years later formed the serial cohort. Cox proportional hazard model was performed to determine the relationship of LSM, Hui index and other clinical variables with hepatic events and deaths. RESULTS: During a mean follow-up of 69 ± 9 months, 119 patients (7.6%) developed hepatic events or deaths. Hepatic event-free survival was significantly decreased with increasing stages of LSM and Hui index. The 5-year cumulative probability of hepatic event-free survival of patients of Stage 1-7 of LSM were 99.3%, 98.8%, 95.7%, 90.9%, 89.6%, 74.6%, and 50.0%, respectively; that of Stage 1 to 3 of Hui index were 98.2%, 93.1%, and 77.5%, respectively. Independent predictors of hepatic event-free survival were age, baseline LSM, and follow-up Hui index. Serum ALT and body mass index affected the accuracy of prediction by LSM. Patients remained early stages of LSM or Hui index at follow-up visit had better survival compared to those remained at late stages. CONCLUSION: Baseline and change in noninvasive parameters of liver fibrosis, LSM and Hui index, are accurate to predict hepatic event-free survival in CHB patients.
Assuntos
Técnicas de Imagem por Elasticidade/métodos , Hepatite B Crônica/complicações , Hepatite B Crônica/mortalidade , Cirrose Hepática/diagnóstico , Transaminases/sangue , Adulto , Fatores Etários , Idoso , Biomarcadores/sangue , Índice de Massa Corporal , Estudos de Coortes , Intervalo Livre de Doença , Feminino , Seguimentos , Humanos , Cirrose Hepática/etiologia , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Valor Preditivo dos Testes , Prognóstico , Modelos de Riscos Proporcionais , Estudos Prospectivos , Receptores de TIE , Índice de Gravidade de DoençaRESUMO
BACKGROUND & AIMS: CU-HCC score is accurate to predict hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients. However, diagnosis of cirrhosis may be incorrect based on ultrasonography, leading to some errors in HCC prediction. This study aimed to evaluate the accuracy of LSM-HCC score, refined from CU-HCC score with liver stiffness measurement (LSM) using transient elastography to predict HCC. METHODS: A prospective cohort study of 1555 consecutive CHB patients referred for transient elastography examination; 1035 and 520 patients randomly assigned to training and validation cohorts, respectively. Clinical cirrhosis of CU-HCC score was substituted by LSM and analyzed with multivariable Cox regression analysis with other parameters. RESULTS: During a mean follow-up of 69 months, 38 patients (3.7%) in the training cohort and 17 patients (3.4%) in the validation cohort developed HCC. A new LSM-HCC score composed of LSM, age, serum albumin and hepatitis B virus (HBV) DNA levels were derived, which ranges from 0 to 30. Areas under receiver operating characteristic curves of LSM-HCC score were higher than those of CU-HCC score (0.83-0.89 vs. 0.75-0.81). By applying the cutoff value of 11, the score excluded future HCC with high negative predictive value (99.4%-100%) at 5 years. CONCLUSIONS: LSM-HCC score constructed from LSM, age, serum albumin and HBV DNA level is accurate to predict HCC in CHB patients.