Importance of Terrain and Climate for Predicting Soil Organic Carbon Is Highly Variable across Local to Continental Scales.

Soil organic carbon (SOC) plays a vital role in global carbon cycling and sequestration, underpinning the need for a comprehensive understanding of its distribution and controls. This study explores the importance of various covariates on SOC spatial distribution at both local (up to 1.25 km) and continental (USA) scales using a deep learning approach. Our findings highlight the significant role of terrain attributes in predicting SOC concentration distribution with terrain, contributing approximately one-third of the overall prediction at the local scale. At the continental scale, climate is only 1.2 times more important than terrain in predicting SOC distribution, whereas at the local scale, the structural pattern of terrain is 14 and 2 times more important than climate and vegetation, respectively. We underscore that terrain attributes, while being integral to the SOC distribution at all scales, are stronger predictors at the local scale with explicit spatial arrangement information. While this observational study does not assess causal mechanisms, our analysis nonetheless presents a nuanced perspective about SOC spatial distribution, which suggests disparate predictors of SOC at local and continental scales. The insights gained from this study have implications for improved SOC mapping, decision support tools, and land management strategies, aiding in the development of effective carbon sequestration initiatives and enhancing climate mitigation efforts.

The fate of rice crop residues and context-dependent greenhouse gas emissions: Model-based insights from Eastern India.

Crop residue burning is a common practice in many parts of the world that causes air pollution and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Regenerative practices that return residues to the soil offer a 'no burn' pathway for addressing air pollution while building soil organic carbon (SOC). Nevertheless, GHG emissions in rice-based agricultural systems are complex and difficult to anticipate, particularly in production contexts with highly variable hydrologic conditions. Here we predict long-term net GHG fluxes for four rice residue management strategies in the context of rice-wheat cropping systems in Eastern India: burning, soil incorporation, livestock fodder, and biochar. Estimations were based on a combination of Tier 1, 2, and 3 modelling approaches, including 100-year DNDC simulations across three representative soil hydrologic categories (i.e., dry, median, and wet). Overall, residue burning resulted in total direct GHG fluxes of 2.5, 6.1, and 8.7 Mg CO2-e in the dry, median, and wet hydrologic categories, respectively. Relative to emissions from burning (positive values indicate an increase) for the same dry to wet hydrologic categories, soil incorporation resulted in a -0.2, 1.8, or 3.1 Mg CO2-e change in emissions whereas use of residues for livestock fodder increased emissions by 2.0, 2.1, or 2.3 Mg CO2-e. Biochar reduced emissions relative to burning by 2.9 Mg CO2-e in all hydrologic categories. This study showed that the production environment has a controlling effect on methane and, therefore, net GHG balance. For example, wetter sites had 2.8-4.0 times greater CH4 emissions, on average, than dry sites when rice residues were returned to the soil. To effectively mitigate burning without undermining climate change mitigation goals, our results suggest that geographically-target approaches should be used in the rice-based systems of Eastern India to incentivize the adoption of regenerative 'no burn' residue management practices.

Land-based measures to mitigate climate change: Potential and feasibility by country.

Land-based climate mitigation measures have gained significant attention and importance in public and private sector climate policies. Building on previous studies, we refine and update the mitigation potentials for 20 land-based measures in >200 countries and five regions, comparing "bottom-up" sectoral estimates with integrated assessment models (IAMs). We also assess implementation feasibility at the country level. Cost-effective (available up to $100/tCO2 eq) land-based mitigation is 8-13.8 GtCO2 eq yr-1 between 2020 and 2050, with the bottom end of this range representing the IAM median and the upper end representing the sectoral estimate. The cost-effective sectoral estimate is about 40% of available technical potential and is in line with achieving a 1.5°C pathway in 2050. Compared to technical potentials, cost-effective estimates represent a more realistic and actionable target for policy. The cost-effective potential is approximately 50% from forests and other ecosystems, 35% from agriculture, and 15% from demand-side measures. The potential varies sixfold across the five regions assessed (0.75-4.8 GtCO2eq yr-1 ) and the top 15 countries account for about 60% of the global potential. Protection of forests and other ecosystems and demand-side measures present particularly high mitigation efficiency, high provision of co-benefits, and relatively lower costs. The feasibility assessment suggests that governance, economic investment, and socio-cultural conditions influence the likelihood that land-based mitigation potentials are realized. A substantial portion of potential (80%) is in developing countries and LDCs, where feasibility barriers are of greatest concern. Assisting countries to overcome barriers may result in significant quantities of near-term, low-cost mitigation while locally achieving important climate adaptation and development benefits. Opportunities among countries vary widely depending on types of land-based measures available, their potential co-benefits and risks, and their feasibility. Enhanced investments and country-specific plans that accommodate this complexity are urgently needed to realize the large global potential from improved land stewardship.

Greenhouse Gas Inventory Model for Biochar Additions to Soil.

Stabilizing the global climate within safe bounds will require greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to reach net zero within a few decades. Achieving this is expected to require removal of CO2 from the atmosphere to offset some hard-to-eliminate emissions. There is, therefore, a clear need for GHG accounting protocols that quantify the mitigation impact of CO2 removal practices, such as biochar sequestration, that have the potential to be deployed at scale. Here, we have developed a GHG accounting methodology for biochar application to mineral soils using simple parameterizations and readily accessible activity data that can be applied at a range of scales including farm, supply chain, national, or global. The method is grounded in a comprehensive analysis of current empirical data, making it a robust method that can be used for many applications including national inventories and voluntary and compliance carbon markets, among others. We show that the carbon content of biochar varies with feedstock and production conditions from as low as 7% (gasification of biosolids) to 79% (pyrolysis of wood at above 600 °C). Of this initial carbon, 63-82% will remain unmineralized in soil after 100 years at the global mean annual cropland-temperature of 14.9 °C. With this method, researchers and managers can address the long-term sequestration of C through biochar that is blended with soils through assessments such as GHG inventories and life cycle analyses.

Biofuels from pyrolysis in perspective: trade-offs between energy yields and soil-carbon additions.

Coproduction of biofuels with biochar (the carbon-rich solid formed during biomass pyrolysis) can provide carbon-negative bioenergy if the biochar is sequestered in soil, where it can improve fertility and thus simultaneously address issues of food security, soil degradation, energy production, and climate change. However, increasing biochar production entails a reduction in bioenergy obtainable per unit biomass feedstock. Quantification of this trade-off for specific biochar-biofuel pathways has been hampered by lack of an accurate-yet-simple model for predicting yields, product compositions, and energy balances from biomass slow pyrolysis. An empirical model of biomass slow pyrolysis was developed and applied to several pathways for biochar coproduction with gaseous and liquid biofuels. Here, we show that biochar production reduces liquid biofuel yield by at least 21 GJ Mg(-1) C (biofuel energy sacrificed per unit mass of biochar C), with methanol synthesis giving this lowest energy penalty. For gaseous-biofuel production, the minimum energy penalty for biochar production is 33 GJ Mg(-1) C. These substitution rates correspond to a wide range of Pareto-optimal system configurations, implying considerable latitude to choose pyrolysis conditions to optimize for desired biochar properties or to modulate energy versus biochar yields in response to fluctuating price differentials for the two commodities.

Effects of initial microbial biomass abundance on respiration during pine litter decomposition.

IMPORTANCE: Microbial biomass is one of the most common microbial parameters used in land carbon (C) cycle models, however, it is notoriously difficult to measure accurately. To understand the consequences of mismeasurement, as well as the broader importance of microbial biomass abundance as a direct driver of ecological phenomena, greater quantitative understanding of the role of microbial biomass abundance in environmental processes is needed. Using microcosms, we manipulated the initial biomass of numerous microbial communities across a 100-fold range and measured effects on CO2 production during plant litter decomposition. We found that the effects of initial biomass abundance on CO2 production was largely attenuated within a week, while the effects of community type remained significant over the course of the experiment. Overall, our results suggest that initial microbial biomass abundance in litter decomposition within an ecosystem is a weak driver of long-term C cycling dynamics.

The Role of Synthetic Biology in Atmospheric Greenhouse Gas Reduction: Prospects and Challenges.

The long atmospheric residence time of CO2 creates an urgent need to add atmospheric carbon drawdown to CO2 regulatory strategies. Synthetic and systems biology (SSB), which enables manipulation of cellular phenotypes, offers a powerful approach to amplifying and adding new possibilities to current land management practices aimed at reducing atmospheric carbon. The participants (in attendance: Christina Agapakis, George Annas, Adam Arkin, George Church, Robert Cook-Deegan, Charles DeLisi, Dan Drell, Sheldon Glashow, Steve Hamburg, Henry Jacoby, Henry Kelly, Mark Kon, Todd Kuiken, Mary Lidstrom, Mike MacCracken, June Medford, Jerry Melillo, Ron Milo, Pilar Ossorio, Ari Patrinos, Keith Paustian, Kristala Jones Prather, Kent Redford, David Resnik, John Reilly, Richard J. Roberts, Daniel Segre, Susan Solomon, Elizabeth Strychalski, Chris Voigt, Dominic Woolf, Stan Wullschleger, and Xiaohan Yang) identified a range of possibilities by which SSB might help reduce greenhouse gas concentrations and which might also contribute to environmental sustainability and adaptation. These include, among other possibilities, engineering plants to convert CO2 produced by respiration into a stable carbonate, designing plants with an increased root-to-shoot ratio, and creating plants with the ability to self-fertilize. A number of serious ecological and societal challenges must, however, be confronted and resolved before any such application can be fully assessed, realized, and deployed.

Microbial models with minimal mineral protection can explain long-term soil organic carbon persistence.

Soil organic carbon (SOC) models currently in widespread use omit known microbial processes, and assume the existence of a SOC pool whose intrinsic properties confer persistence for centuries to millennia, despite evidence from priming and aggregate turnover that cast doubt on the existence of SOC with profound intrinsic stability. Here we show that by including microbial interactions in a SOC model, persistence can be explained as a feedback between substrate availability, mineral protection and microbial population size, without invoking an unproven pool that is intrinsically stable for centuries. The microbial SOC model based on this concept reproduces long-term data (r2 = 0.92; n = 90), global SOC distribution (rmse = 4.7 +/- 0.6 kg C m-2), and total global SOC in the top 0.3 m (822 Pg C) accurately. SOC dynamics based on a microbial feedback without stable pools are thus consistent with global SOC distribution. This has important implications for carbon management, suggesting that relatively fast cycling, rather than recalcitrant, SOC must form the primary target of efforts to build SOC stocks.

Biological and thermochemical conversion of human solid waste to soil amendments.

Biological and thermochemical sanitization of source-separated human solid waste (HSW) are effective technologies for unsewered communities. While both methods are capable of fecal pathogen sterilization, the agronomically-beneficial properties of waste sanitized between methods remains unclear. Therefore, this study compared recovery and quality of soil amendments produced by compostation, torrefaction, and pyrolysis of HSW, established their financial value, and quantified tradeoffs between product value and conversion efficiency. Temperature and associated mass losses significantly affected the physical and chemical properties of thermochemically-treated HSW. Thermophilic composting, a biological sanitation method practiced in informal settlements in Nairobi, Kenya, produced an amendment that contained between 16 and 858-fold more plant-available nitrogen (N; 214.5 mg N/kg) than HSW pyrolyzed between 300 and 700 °C (0.2-15.2 mg N/kg). Conversely, HSW pyrolyzed at 600 °C had four-fold higher plant-available phosphorus (P; 3117 mg P/kg) and five-fold higher plant-available potassium (K; 7403 mg K/kg) than composted HSW (716 mg P/kg and 1462 mg K/kg). Wide variation between international fertilizer prices on the low end and regional East African prices on the high end resulted in broad-spaced quantiles for the value of agronomic components in HSW amendments. Phosphorus and K comprised a disproportionate amount of the value, 52-87%, compared to plant-available N, which contributed less than 2%. The total value of treated HSW, summed across all agronomic components per unit weight amendment, was greatest for thermochemically-treated HSW at 600 °C, averaging 220 USD/Mg, more than four-fold that of composted HSW, 53 USD/Mg. In contrast, torrefaction provided the highest monetary value per unit weight feedstock, 144 USD/Mg, as low heating temperatures engender minimal mass loss and higher nutrient densities per unit weight feedstock, compared to composted or pyrolyzed HSW. When benchmarked against total N, P, and K of eight commonly-applied organic amendments, including sewage-sludge (Milorganite), compost, and alfalfa meal, HSW pyrolyzed at 700 °C was of greatest value per unit weight of amendment, 365 USD/Mg, compared to 89 USD/Mg for composted HSW, and contained 2.9% total N (0.5 mg available N/kg), 3.1% total P (7640 mg available P/kg), 3.5% total K (17,671 mg available K/kg).

Optimal bioenergy power generation for climate change mitigation with or without carbon sequestration.

Restricting global warming below 2 °C to avoid catastrophic climate change will require atmospheric carbon dioxide removal (CDR). Current integrated assessment models (IAMs) and Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change scenarios assume that CDR within the energy sector would be delivered using bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS). Although bioenergy-biochar systems (BEBCS) can also deliver CDR, they are not included in any IPCC scenario. Here we show that despite BECCS offering twice the carbon sequestration and bioenergy per unit biomass, BEBCS may allow earlier deployment of CDR at lower carbon prices when long-term improvements in soil fertility offset biochar production costs. At carbon prices above $1,000 Mg-1 C, BECCS is most frequently (P>0.45, calculated as the fraction of Monte Carlo simulations in which BECCS is the most cost effective) the most economic biomass technology for climate-change mitigation. At carbon prices below $1,000 Mg-1 C, BEBCS is the most cost-effective technology only where biochar significantly improves agricultural yields, with pure bioenergy systems being otherwise preferred.

Sustainable biochar to mitigate global climate change.

Production of biochar (the carbon (C)-rich solid formed by pyrolysis of biomass) and its storage in soils have been suggested as a means of abating climate change by sequestering carbon, while simultaneously providing energy and increasing crop yields. Substantial uncertainties exist, however, regarding the impact, capacity and sustainability of biochar at the global level. In this paper we estimate the maximum sustainable technical potential of biochar to mitigate climate change. Annual net emissions of carbon dioxide (CO(2)), methane and nitrous oxide could be reduced by a maximum of 1.8 Pg CO(2)-C equivalent (CO(2)-C(e)) per year (12% of current anthropogenic CO(2)-C(e) emissions; 1 Pg=1 Gt), and total net emissions over the course of a century by 130 Pg CO(2)-C(e), without endangering food security, habitat or soil conservation. Biochar has a larger climate-change mitigation potential than combustion of the same sustainably procured biomass for bioenergy, except when fertile soils are amended while coal is the fuel being offset.