The impact of the COVID-19 public health response on service demand and patient perceptions in a tertiary Australian gynaecology oncology unit.

INTRODUCTION: The public health response (PHR) to the COVID-19 pandemic significantly disrupted healthcare services worldwide. Our hospital, a major tertiary centre, is a unique two-state service across Queensland and New South Wales (NSW). OBJECTIVE: The primary objective is to describe changes in service demand and delivery in our hospital resulting from the COVID-19 PHR. The secondary objective is to investigate patient perceptions of this impact. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We performed a retrospective interrupted time series analysis and a population-based survey to examine patient perceptions of the impact of the COVID-19 PHR. The study periods were demarcated by the initiation of the COVID-19 PHR on 1 March 2020 with the 'pre' and 'during' COVID-19 periods defined as the 12 months before and after this date respectively. RESULTS: More patients were seen during the COVID-19 PHR period. The number or stage of cancer diagnoses was not different (P > 0.05). There was evidence (P = 0.03) of an increase in overall occasions of service and fewer failed attendances (P = 0.005). Fewer surgeries were performed on NSW patients (P = 0.005). The survey response rate was 19.3% (n = 185) with 48% stating that COVID-19 had negatively affected their emotional wellbeing. More participants from NSW than Queensland identified border closures as the most significant impact of the COVID-19 PHR. DISCUSSION: The COVID-19 PHR resulted in an unexpected increase in unit service demand and delivery. The necessary implementation of telephone appointments, while less preferred by patients, sustained service requirements. Cross-border tertiary healthcare services should consider the significant impact of border restrictions on patient wellbeing.

Predicting Those Who Are at Risk of Dying within Six to Twelve Months in Primary Care: A Retrospective Case-Control General Practice Chart Analysis.

Background: With an aging population, and most deaths due to a nonmalignant cause, there is urgency to review the nature of end-of-life care (EoLC) to minimize gaps in service provision. Early introduction of EoLC benefits patient and carers, so identification of those at risk of dying 6 to 12 months before death is highly desirable. Objective: To identify the most predictive patient characteristics of a risk of death within 6 to 12 months as a precursor to developing a user-friendly primary care screening tool. Design: Retrospective case-control study. Setting/Subjects: Australian general practice. Cases were patients aged ≥70 years who died in the previous 5 years. Controls were matched for age and gender. Exclusion criteria were: no available practice records for the 18 months before death (cases) and data collection (controls); no corroborated evidence of death. Measurements: Supportive and Palliative Care Indicators Tool (SPICT) indicators of deterioration in medical records. Results: There were 215 deaths and 267 controls. The most predictive patient characteristics of a risk of death within 6 to 12 months are: deteriorating performance status, weight loss, persistent symptoms, request for palliative care or treatment withdrawal, impaired activities of daily living, falls ± fractured hip, neurological deterioration, advanced lung disease, and estimated glomerular filtration rate <30 mL/min/1.73 m2 with deteriorating health. Our predictive model has a sensitivity and specificity of 67% and 87%, respectively, with a predictive accuracy of 78%. Conclusions: This model predicts risk of death within 6 to 12 months with acceptable reliability in a general practice setting and has the potential to be incorporated into clinical practice and electronic records.