Unexpected slowdown of US pollutant emission reduction in the past decade.

Ground and satellite observations show that air pollution regulations in the United States (US) have resulted in substantial reductions in emissions and corresponding improvements in air quality over the last several decades. However, large uncertainties remain in evaluating how recent regulations affect different emission sectors and pollutant trends. Here we show a significant slowdown in decreasing US emissions of nitrogen oxides (NO x ) and carbon monoxide (CO) for 2011-2015 using satellite and surface measurements. This observed slowdown in emission reductions is significantly different from the trend expected using US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) bottom-up inventories and impedes compliance with local and federal agency air-quality goals. We find that the difference between observations and EPA's NO x emission estimates could be explained by: (i) growing relative contributions of industrial, area, and off-road sources, (ii) decreasing relative contributions of on-road gasoline, and (iii) slower than expected decreases in on-road diesel emissions.

Rainforest-initiated wet season onset over the southern Amazon.

Although it is well established that transpiration contributes much of the water for rainfall over Amazonia, it remains unclear whether transpiration helps to drive or merely responds to the seasonal cycle of rainfall. Here, we use multiple independent satellite datasets to show that rainforest transpiration enables an increase of shallow convection that moistens and destabilizes the atmosphere during the initial stages of the dry-to-wet season transition. This shallow convection moisture pump (SCMP) preconditions the atmosphere at the regional scale for a rapid increase in rain-bearing deep convection, which in turn drives moisture convergence and wet season onset 2-3 mo before the arrival of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). Aerosols produced by late dry season biomass burning may alter the efficiency of the SCMP. Our results highlight the mechanisms by which interactions among land surface processes, atmospheric convection, and biomass burning may alter the timing of wet season onset and provide a mechanistic framework for understanding how deforestation extends the dry season and enhances regional vulnerability to drought.

Stable isotopes in atmospheric water vapor and applications to the hydrologic cycle.

The measurement and simulation of water vapor isotopic composition has matured rapidly over the last decade, with long-term datasets and comprehensive modeling capabilities now available. Theories for water vapor isotopic composition have been developed by extending the theories that have been used for the isotopic composition of precipitation to include a more nuanced understanding of evaporation, large-scale mixing, deep convection, and kinetic fractionation. The technologies for in-situ and remote sensing measurements of water vapor isotopic composition have developed especially rapidly over the last decade, with discrete water vapor sampling methods, based on mass spectroscopy, giving way to laser spectroscopic methods and satellite- and ground-based infrared absorption techniques. The simulation of water vapor isotopic composition has evolved from General Circulation Model (GCM) methods for simulating precipitation isotopic composition to sophisticated isotope-enabled microphysics schemes using higher-order moments for water- and ice-size distributions. The incorporation of isotopes into GCMs has enabled more detailed diagnostics of the water cycle and has led to improvements in its simulation. The combination of improved measurement and modeling of water vapor isotopic composition opens the door to new advances in our understanding of the atmospheric water cycle, in processes ranging from the marine boundary layer, through deep convection and tropospheric mixing, and into the water cycle of the stratosphere. Finally, studies of the processes governing modern water vapor isotopic composition provide an improved framework for the interpretation of paleoclimate proxy records of the hydrological cycle.

Forest productivity and water stress in Amazonia: observations from GOSAT chlorophyll fluorescence.

It is unclear to what extent seasonal water stress impacts on plant productivity over Amazonia. Using new Greenhouse gases Observing SATellite (GOSAT) satellite measurements of sun-induced chlorophyll fluorescence, we show that midday fluorescence varies with water availability, both of which decrease in the dry season over Amazonian regions with substantial dry season length, suggesting a parallel decrease in gross primary production (GPP). Using additional SeaWinds Scatterometer onboard QuikSCAT satellite measurements of canopy water content, we found a concomitant decrease in daily storage of canopy water content within branches and leaves during the dry season, supporting our conclusion. A large part (r(2) = 0.75) of the variance in observed monthly midday fluorescence from GOSAT is explained by water stress over moderately stressed evergreen forests over Amazonia, which is reproduced by model simulations that include a full physiological representation of photosynthesis and fluorescence. The strong relationship between GOSAT and model fluorescence (r(2) = 0.79) was obtained using a fixed leaf area index, indicating that GPP changes are more related to environmental conditions than chlorophyll contents. When the dry season extended to drought in 2010 over Amazonia, midday basin-wide GPP was reduced by 15 per cent compared with 2009.

Importance of rain evaporation and continental convection in the tropical water cycle.

Atmospheric moisture cycling is an important aspect of the Earth's climate system, yet the processes determining atmospheric humidity are poorly understood. For example, direct evaporation of rain contributes significantly to the heat and moisture budgets of clouds, but few observations of these processes are available. Similarly, the relative contributions to atmospheric moisture over land from local evaporation and humidity from oceanic sources are uncertain. Lighter isotopes of water vapour preferentially evaporate whereas heavier isotopes preferentially condense and the isotopic composition of ocean water is known. Here we use this information combined with global measurements of the isotopic composition of tropospheric water vapour from the Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer (TES) aboard the Aura spacecraft, to investigate aspects of the atmospheric hydrological cycle that are not well constrained by observations of precipitation or atmospheric vapour content. Our measurements of the isotopic composition of water vapour near tropical clouds suggest that rainfall evaporation contributes significantly to lower troposphere humidity, with typically 20% and up to 50% of rainfall evaporating near convective clouds. Over the tropical continents the isotopic signature of tropospheric water vapour differs significantly from that of precipitation, suggesting that convection of vapour from both oceanic sources and evapotranspiration are the dominant moisture sources. Our measurements allow an assessment of the intensity of the present hydrological cycle and will help identify any future changes as they occur.

Attribution of individual methane and carbon dioxide emission sources using EMIT observations from space.

Carbon dioxide and methane emissions are the two primary anthropogenic climate-forcing agents and an important source of uncertainty in the global carbon budget. Uncertainties are further magnified when emissions occur at fine spatial scales (<1 km), making attribution challenging. We present the first observations from NASA's Earth Surface Mineral Dust Source Investigation (EMIT) imaging spectrometer showing quantification and attribution of fine-scale methane (0.3 to 73 tonnes CH4 hour-1) and carbon dioxide sources (1571 to 3511 tonnes CO2 hour-1) spanning the oil and gas, waste, and energy sectors. For selected countries observed during the first 30 days of EMIT operations, methane emissions varied at a regional scale, with the largest total emissions observed for Turkmenistan (731 ± 148 tonnes CH4 hour-1). These results highlight the contributions of current and planned point source imagers in closing global carbon budgets.

Amazonian terrestrial water balance inferred from satellite-observed water vapor isotopes.

Atmospheric humidity and soil moisture in the Amazon forest are tightly coupled to the region's water balance, or the difference between two moisture fluxes, evapotranspiration minus precipitation (ET-P). However, large and poorly characterized uncertainties in both fluxes, and in their difference, make it challenging to evaluate spatiotemporal variations of water balance and its dependence on ET or P. Here, we show that satellite observations of the HDO/H2O ratio of water vapor are sensitive to spatiotemporal variations of ET-P over the Amazon. When calibrated by basin-scale and mass-balance estimates of ET-P derived from terrestrial water storage and river discharge measurements, the isotopic data demonstrate that rainfall controls wet Amazon water balance variability, but ET becomes important in regulating water balance and its variability in the dry Amazon. Changes in the drivers of ET, such as above ground biomass, could therefore have a larger impact on soil moisture and humidity in the dry (southern and eastern) Amazon relative to the wet Amazon.

Evaluation of smoking prevention television messages based on the elaboration likelihood model.

Progress in reducing youth smoking may depend on developing improved methods to communicate with higher risk youth. This study explored the potential of smoking prevention messages based on the Elaboration Likelihood Model (ELM) to address these needs. Structured evaluations of 12 smoking prevention messages based on three strategies derived from the ELM were conducted in classroom settings among a diverse sample of non-smoking middle school students in three states (n = 1771). Students categorized as likely to have higher involvement in a decision to initiate cigarette smoking reported relatively high ratings on a cognitive processing indicator for messages focused on factual arguments about negative consequences of smoking than for messages with fewer or no direct arguments. Message appeal ratings did not show greater preference for this message type among higher involved versus lower involved students. Ratings from students reporting lower academic achievement suggested difficulty processing factual information presented in these messages. The ELM may provide a useful strategy for reaching adolescents at risk for smoking initiation, but particular attention should be focused on lower academic achievers to ensure that messages are appropriate for them. This approach should be explored further before similar strategies could be recommended for large-scale implementation.

Changes in global terrestrial live biomass over the 21st century.

Live woody vegetation is the largest reservoir of biomass carbon, with its restoration considered one of the most effective natural climate solutions. However, terrestrial carbon fluxes remain the largest uncertainty in the global carbon cycle. Here, we develop spatially explicit estimates of carbon stock changes of live woody biomass from 2000 to 2019 using measurements from ground, air, and space. We show that live biomass has removed 4.9 to 5.5 PgC year-1 from the atmosphere, offsetting 4.6 ± 0.1 PgC year-1 of gross emissions from disturbances and adding substantially (0.23 to 0.88 PgC year-1) to the global carbon stocks. Gross emissions and removals in the tropics were four times larger than temperate and boreal ecosystems combined. Although live biomass is responsible for more than 80% of gross terrestrial fluxes, soil, dead organic matter, and lateral transport may play important roles in terrestrial carbon sink.

Earth's water reservoirs in a changing climate.

Progress towards achieving a quantitative understanding of the exchanges of water between Earth's main water reservoirs is reviewed with emphasis on advances accrued from the latest advances in Earth Observation from space. These exchanges of water between the reservoirs are a result of processes that are at the core of important physical Earth-system feedbacks, which fundamentally control the response of Earth's climate to the greenhouse gas forcing it is now experiencing, and are therefore vital to understanding the future evolution of Earth's climate. The changing nature of global mean sea level (GMSL) is the context for discussion of these exchanges. Different sources of satellite observations that are used to quantify ice mass loss and water storage over continents, how water can be tracked to its source using water isotope information and how the waters in different reservoirs influence the fluxes of water between reservoirs are described. The profound influence of Earth's hydrological cycle, including human influences on it, on the rate of GMSL rise is emphasized. The many intricate ways water cycle processes influence water exchanges between reservoirs and thus sea-level rise, including disproportionate influences by the tiniest water reservoirs, are emphasized.

Fire decline in dry tropical ecosystems enhances decadal land carbon sink.

The terrestrial carbon sink has significantly increased in the past decades, but the underlying mechanisms are still unclear. The current synthesis of process-based estimates of land and ocean sinks requires an additional sink of 0.6 PgC yr-1 in the last decade to explain the observed airborne fraction. A concurrent global fire decline was observed in association with tropical agriculture expansion and landscape fragmentation. Here we show that a decline of 0.2 ± 0.1 PgC yr-1 in fire emissions during 2008-2014 relative to 2001-2007 also induced an additional carbon sink enhancement of 0.4 ± 0.2 PgC yr-1 attributable to carbon cycle feedbacks, amounting to a combined sink increase comparable to the 0.6 PgC yr-1 budget imbalance. Our results suggest that the indirect effects of fire, in addition to the direct emissions, is an overlooked mechanism for explaining decadal-scale changes in the land carbon sink and highlight the importance of fire management in climate mitigation.

Characterizing the long-range transport of black carbon aerosols during Transport and Chemical Evolution over the Pacific (TRACE-P) experiment.

A major aircraft experiment Transport and Chemical Evolution over the Pacific (TRACE-P) mission over the NW Pacific in March-April 2001 was conducted to better understand how outflow from the Asian continent affects the composition of the global atmosphere. In this paper, a global climate model, GEOS-Chem is used to investigate possible black carbon aerosol contributions from TRACE-P region. Our result depicts that absorbing black carbon ("soot") significantly outflow during lifting to the free troposphere through warm conveyor belt and convection associated with this lifting. The GEOS-Chem simulation results show significant transport of black carbon aerosols from Asian regions to the Western Pacific region during the spring season. As estimated by GEOS-Chem simulations, approximately 25% of the black carbon concentrations over the western pacific originate from SE Asia in the spring.

Modeling Study of the Air Quality Impact of Record-Breaking Southern California Wildfires in December 2017.

We investigate the air quality impact of record-breaking wildfires in Southern California during 5-18 December 2017 using the Weather Research and Forecasting model with Chemistry in combination with satellite and surface observations. This wildfire event was driven by dry and strong offshore Santa Ana winds, which played a critical role in fire formation and air pollutant transport. By utilizing fire emissions derived from the high-resolution (375 × 375 m2) Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite active fire detections, the simulated magnitude and temporal evolution of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) concentrations agree reasonably well with surface observations (normalized mean bias = 4.0%). Meanwhile, the model could generally capture the spatial pattern of aerosol optical depth from satellite observations. Sensitivity tests reveal that using a high spatial resolution for fire emissions and a reasonable treatment of plume rise (a fair split between emissions injected at surface and those lifted to upper levels) is important for achieving decent PM2.5 simulation results. Biases in PM2.5 simulation are relatively large (about 50%) during the period with the strongest Santa Ana wind, due to a possible underestimation of burning area and uncertainty in wind field variation. The 2017 December fire event increases the 14-day averaged PM2.5 concentrations by up to 231.2 µg/m3 over the downwind regions, which substantially exceeds the U.S. air quality standards, potentially leading to adverse health impacts. The human exposure to fire-induced PM2.5 accounts for 14-42% of the annual total PM2.5 exposure in areas impacted by the fire plumes.

Methane on Mars and Habitability: Challenges and Responses.

Recent measurements of methane (CH4) by the Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) now confront us with robust data that demand interpretation. Thus far, the MSL data have revealed a baseline level of CH4 (∼0.4 parts per billion by volume [ppbv]), with seasonal variations, as well as greatly enhanced spikes of CH4 with peak abundances of ∼7 ppbv. What do these CH4 revelations with drastically different abundances and temporal signatures represent in terms of interior geochemical processes, or is martian CH4 a biosignature? Discerning how CH4 generation occurs on Mars may shed light on the potential habitability of Mars. There is no evidence of life on the surface of Mars today, but microbes might reside beneath the surface. In this case, the carbon flux represented by CH4 would serve as a link between a putative subterranean biosphere on Mars and what we can measure above the surface. Alternatively, CH4 records modern geochemical activity. Here we ask the fundamental question: how active is Mars, geochemically and/or biologically? In this article, we examine geological, geochemical, and biogeochemical processes related to our overarching question. The martian atmosphere and surface are an overwhelmingly oxidizing environment, and life requires pairing of electron donors and electron acceptors, that is, redox gradients, as an essential source of energy. Therefore, a fundamental and critical question regarding the possibility of life on Mars is, "Where can we find redox gradients as energy sources for life on Mars?" Hence, regardless of the pathway that generates CH4 on Mars, the presence of CH4, a reduced species in an oxidant-rich environment, suggests the possibility of redox gradients supporting life and habitability on Mars. Recent missions such as ExoMars Trace Gas Orbiter may provide mapping of the global distribution of CH4. To discriminate between abiotic and biotic sources of CH4 on Mars, future studies should use a series of diagnostic geochemical analyses, preferably performed below the ground or at the ground/atmosphere interface, including measurements of CH4 isotopes, methane/ethane ratios, H2 gas concentration, and species such as acetic acid. Advances in the fields of Mars exploration and instrumentation will be driven, augmented, and supported by an improved understanding of atmospheric chemistry and dynamics, deep subsurface biogeochemistry, astrobiology, planetary geology, and geophysics. Future Mars exploration programs will have to expand the integration of complementary areas of expertise to generate synergistic and innovative ideas to realize breakthroughs in advancing our understanding of the potential of life and habitable conditions having existed on Mars. In this spirit, we conducted a set of interdisciplinary workshops. From this series has emerged a vision of technological, theoretical, and methodological innovations to explore the martian subsurface and to enhance spatial tracking of key volatiles, such as CH4.

Youth audience segmentation strategies for smoking-prevention mass media campaigns based on message appeal.

Mass media interventions are among the strategies recommended for youth cigarette smoking prevention, but little is known about optimal methods for reaching diverse youth audiences. Grades 4 through 12 samples of youth from four states (n = 1,230) rated smoking-prevention messages in classroom settings. Similar proportions of African American, Hispanic, and White youth participated. Impact of audience characteristics on message appeal ratings was assessed to provide guidance for audience segmentation strategies. Age had a strong effect on individual message appeal. The effect of gender also was significant. Message ratings were similar among the younger racial/ethnic groups, but differences were found for older African American youth. Lower academic achievement was associated with lower appeal scores for some messages. Age should be a primary consideration in developing and delivering smoking-prevention messages to youth audiences. The unique needs of boys and girls and older African American adolescents should also be considered.

Reduced biomass burning emissions reconcile conflicting estimates of the post-2006 atmospheric methane budget.

Several viable but conflicting explanations have been proposed to explain the recent ~8 p.p.b. per year increase in atmospheric methane after 2006, equivalent to net emissions increase of ~25 Tg CH4 per year. A concurrent increase in atmospheric ethane implicates a fossil source; a concurrent decrease in the heavy isotope content of methane points toward a biogenic source, while other studies propose a decrease in the chemical sink (OH). Here we show that biomass burning emissions of methane decreased by 3.7 (±1.4) Tg CH4 per year from the 2001-2007 to the 2008-2014 time periods using satellite measurements of CO and CH4, nearly twice the decrease expected from prior estimates. After updating both the total and isotopic budgets for atmospheric methane with these revised biomass burning emissions (and assuming no change to the chemical sink), we find that fossil fuels contribute between 12-19 Tg CH4 per year to the recent atmospheric methane increase, thus reconciling the isotopic- and ethane-based results.

Mass media and community interventions to reduce alcohol use by early adolescents.

OBJECTIVE: Although early use of alcohol is an immediate and long-term risk for young people, proven prevention strategies are limited. Mass media interventions have been shown to be effective in reducing use of other substances by adolescents. This study tested the impact of a 4-year media campaign designed to reduce alcohol use by early adolescents. METHOD: Theory-based television and radio messages promoting avoidance of alcohol were developed and delivered to an audience of young people as they matured from Grades 4-5 to Grades 7-8. A set of eight school districts was identified as the Media Area; eight matching districts served as the Comparison Area. Independent Grade 7-8 surveys were conducted in all districts at baseline (N= 2897) and after the interventions (N=2419). Unanticipated community coalitions working to reduce youth substance use were introduced into 10 of these 16 communities during the same time period. RESULTS: Exposure of the target audience to the media messages was lower than expected, and the unplanned community coalition interventions may have favored the Comparison Area. The main analyses indicated that the media interventions did not significantly affect alcohol use or its mediators. Supplementary analyses suggested a substantial impact of community coalitions on alcohol use and several key mediators. CONCLUSIONS: The mass media interventions provided by this study had no effect on adolescent alcohol use or its psychosocial mediators. Factors external to the study reduced chances of detecting media effects. Further work is needed to develop and test mass media strategies for alcohol use prevention among early adolescents.

Self-efficacy and outcome expectations for quitting among adolescent smokers.

Relatively little is known about smoking cessation self-efficacy and outcome expectations for quitting smoking in adolescent smokers. In this study, we created measures of these two constructs and conducted factor analyses with data from a diverse sample of 1126 adolescent smokers. Results yielded a two-factor solution for the self-efficacy measure, and a four-factor solution for the outcome expectations scale. In a subset of the original sample (n=515), we re-administered the measures one year later and also examined the longitudinal associations between the baseline sub-scale scores and cigarettes smoked per week at follow-up. Results revealed significant relationships between the negative affect sub-scales of the self-efficacy and outcome expectations measures and weekly smoking level. These associations remained when adjusting for baseline smoking level and other sub-scales. The findings lend support for the possible role of affect regulation in smoking reduction in adolescents.

Simulating the Black Saturday 2009 smoke plume with an interactive composition-climate model: sensitivity to emissions amount, timing and injection height.

We simulated the high-altitude smoke plume from the early February 2009 Black Saturday bushfires in southeastern Australia using the NASA GISS ModelE2. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first single-plume analysis of biomass burning emissions injected directly into the upper-troposphere/lower stratosphere (UTLS) using a full-complexity composition-climate model. We compared simulated carbon monoxide (CO) to a new Aura TES/MLS joint CO retrieval, focusing on the plume's initial transport eastward, anticyclonic circulation to the north of New Zealand, westward transport in the lower stratospheric easterlies, and arrival over Africa at the end of February. Our goal was to determine the sensitivity of the simulated plume to prescribed injection height, emissions amount and emissions timing from different sources for a full complexity model when compared to Aura. The most realistic plumes were obtained using injection heights in the UTLS, including one drawn from ground-based radar data. A six-hour emissions pulse or emissions tied to independent estimates of hourly fire behavior produced a more realistic plume in the lower stratosphere compared to the same emissions amount being released evenly over 12 or 24-hours. Simulated CO in the plume was highly sensitive to the differences between emissions amounts estimated from the Global Fire Emissions Database and from detailed, ground-based estimates of fire growth. The emissions amount determined not only the CO concentration of the plume, but the proportion of the plume that entered the stratosphere. We speculate that this is due to either or both non-linear CO loss with a weakened OH sink, or plume self-lofting driven by shortwave absorption of the co-emitted aerosols.

Potentially modifiable psychosocial factors associated with alcohol use during early adolescence.

This study was conducted to identify factors associated with alcohol use among early adolescents. A survey was administered to all Grade 7 and 8 students in 16 Vermont school districts. The questionnaire covered demographics, alcohol, tobacco, and marijuana use, and measures of psychosocial mediators of alcohol use drawn from social cognitive theory. These included positive and negative expectancies about alcohol effects, perceived peer and parent alcohol norms, perceived prevalence of adolescent alcohol use, and confidence in ability to refuse alcohol. Of the 2919 respondents, 29% reported having at least one drink of beer in the preceding 30 days. In logistic regression, factors independently related to risk of drinking beer in the past 30 days were smoking (odds ratio [OR] = 2.3, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.8-3.0), marijuana use (OR 3.9, 95% CI 3.0-5.2), negative expectancies (OR 0.4, 95% CI 0.3-0.6), parent norms (OR 1.4, 95% CI 1.1-1.7), and estimated percentage of high school students who drink (OR 1.3, 95% CI 1.1-1.5). Gender, positive alcohol expectancies, and lack of confidence in ability to refuse alcohol all significantly interacted with peer norm, with these items more strongly associated with alcohol use when peer norm is toward "shouldn't drink." Modifiable perceptions of alcohol use were strongly associated with actual use in this adolescent sample, providing a basis for intervention program design.