Using the Prevention Impacts Simulation Model to Estimate Long-Term Impacts of Multisector Community Partnerships' Efforts to Address Social Determinants of Health.

Public health plays a key role in addressing social determinants of health (SDOH) through multisector community partnerships (MCPs), which contribute to community changes that promote healthy living; however, little is known about the longer-term impact of MCP-driven interventions. We used the Prevention Impacts Simulation Model (PRISM) in a rapid evaluation to better understand the implementation and potential impact of MCPs' SDOH initiatives. Results suggest that, if sustained, initiatives implemented by the 27 included MCPs may prevent 880 premature deaths and avert $125.7 million in medical costs over 20 years. As a validated model that estimates impact by using available implementation data, PRISM is a useful tool for evaluating SDOH initiatives.

Estimating the cost-effectiveness of the Sodium Reduction in Communities Program.

OBJECTIVE: This study assessed the cost-effectiveness of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's (CDC's) Sodium Reduction in Communities Program (SRCP). DESIGN: We collected implementation costs and performance measure indicators from SRCP recipients and their partner food service organisations. We estimated the cost per person and per food service organisation reached and the cost per menu item impacted. We estimated the short-term effectiveness of SRCP in reducing sodium consumption and used it as an input in the Prevention Impact Simulation Model to project the long-term impact on medical cost savings and quality-adjusted life-years gained due to a reduction in CVD and estimate the cost-effectiveness of SRCP if sustained through 2025 and 2040. SETTING: CDC funded eight recipients as part of the 2016-2021 round of the SRCP to work with food service organisations in eight settings to increase the availability and purchase of lower-sodium food options. PARTICIPANTS: Eight SRCP recipients and twenty of their partners. RESULTS: At the recipient level, average cost per person reached was $10, and average cost per food service organisation reached was $42 917. At the food service organisation level, median monthly cost per food item impacted by recipe modification or product substitution was $684. Cost-effectiveness analyses showed that, if sustained, the programme is cost saving (i.e. the reduction in medical costs is greater than the implementation costs) in the target population by $1·82 through 2025 and $2·09 through 2040. CONCLUSIONS: By providing evidence of the cost-effectiveness of a real-world sodium reduction initiative, this study can help inform decisions by public health organisations about related CVD prevention interventions.

Assessment of the Costs of Implementing COVID-19 Vaccination Clinics in 34 Sites, United States, March 2021.

OBJECTIVES: To estimate the costs to implement public health department (PHD)-run COVID-19 vaccination clinics. DESIGN: Retrospectively reported data on COVID-19 vaccination clinic characteristics and resources used during a high-demand day in March 2021. These resources were combined with national average wages, supply costs, and facility costs to estimate the operational cost and start-up cost of clinics. SETTING: Thirty-four PHD-run COVID-19 vaccination clinics across 8 states and 1 metropolitan statistical area. PARTICIPANTS: Clinic managers at 34 PHD-run COVID-19 vaccination clinics. INTERVENTION: Large-scale COVID-19 vaccination clinics were implemented by public health agencies as part of the pandemic response. MAIN OUTCOMES MEASURED: Operational cost per day, operational cost per vaccination, start-up cost per clinic. RESULTS: Median operational cost per day for a clinic was $10 314 (range, $637-$95 163) and median cost per vaccination was $38 (range, $9-$206). There was a large range of operational costs across clinics. Clinics used an average of 99 total staff hours per 100 patients vaccinated. Median start-up cost per clinic was $15 348 (range, $1 409-$165 190). CONCLUSIONS: Results show that clinics require a large range of resources to meet the high throughput needs of the COVID-19 pandemic response. Estimating the costs of PHD-run vaccination clinics for the pandemic response is essential for ensuring that resources are available for clinic success. If clinics are not adequately supported, they may stop functioning, which would slow the pandemic response if no other setting or approach is possible.

Validation of the Prevention Impacts Simulation Model (PRISM).

INTRODUCTION: Demonstrating the validity of a public health simulation model helps to establish confidence in the accuracy and usefulness of a model's results. In this study we evaluated the validity of the Prevention Impacts Simulation Model (PRISM), a system dynamics model that simulates health, mortality, and economic outcomes for the US population. PRISM primarily simulates outcomes related to cardiovascular disease but also includes outcomes related to other chronic diseases that share risk factors. PRISM is openly available through a web application. METHODS: We applied the model validation framework developed independently by the International Society of Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research and the Society for Medical Decision Making modeling task force to validate PRISM. This framework included model review by external experts and quantitative data comparison by the study team. RESULTS: External expert review determined that PRISM is based on up-to-date science. One-way sensitivity analysis showed that no parameter affected results by more than 5%. Comparison with other published models, such as ModelHealth, showed that PRISM produces lower estimates of effects and cost savings. Comparison with surveillance data showed that projected model trends in risk factors and outcomes align closely with secular trends. Four measures did not align with surveillance data, and those were recalibrated. CONCLUSION: PRISM is a useful tool to simulate the potential effects and costs of public health interventions. Results of this validation should help assure health policy leaders that PRISM can help support community health program planning and evaluation efforts.

CDC's Sodium Reduction in Communities Program: Evaluating Differential Effects in Food Service Settings, 2013-2016.

High sodium intake can lead to hypertension and increase the risk for heart disease and stroke; however, research is lacking on the effectiveness of community-based sodium reduction programs. From 2013 through 2016, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) funded 10 state and local health departments to implement sodium reduction strategies across diverse institutional food settings. Strategies of the Sodium Reduction in Communities Program (SRCP) are implementing food service guidelines, making menu modifications, enabling purchase of reuced-sodium foods, and providing consumer information. CDC aggregated awardee-reported performance measures to evaluate progress in increasing the access, availability, and purchase of reduced sodium foods. Evaluation results of the SRCP show the potential differential effects of sodium reduction strategies in a community setting and support the need for additional community-level efforts in this emerging area of public health.

Estimating the Costs and Income of Providing Vaccination to Adults and Children.

INTRODUCTION: Vaccinations are recommended to prevent serious morbidity and mortality. However, providers' concerns regarding costs and payments for providing vaccination services are commonly reported barriers to adult vaccination. Information on the costs of providing vaccination is limited, especially for adults. METHODS: We recruited 4 internal medicine, 4 family medicine, 2 pediatric, 2 obstetrics and gynecology (OBGYN) practices, and 2 community health clinics in North Carolina to participate in a study to assess the economic costs and benefits of providing vaccination services for adults and children. We conducted a time-motion assessment of vaccination-related activities in the provider office and a survey to providers on vaccine management costs. We estimated mean cost per vaccination, minimum and maximum payments received, and income. RESULTS: Across all provider settings, mean cost per vaccine administration was $14 with substantial variation by practice setting (pediatric: $10; community health clinics: $15; family medicine: $17; OBGYN: $23; internal medicine: $23). When receiving the maximum payment, all provider settings had positive income for vaccination services. When receiving the minimum reported payments for vaccination services, pediatric and family medicine practices had positive income, internal medicine, and OBGYN practices had approximately equal costs and payments, and community health clinics had losses or negative income. CONCLUSIONS: Overall, vaccination service providers appeared to have small positive income from vaccination services. In some cases, providers experienced negative income, which underscores the need for providers and policymakers to design interventions and system improvements to make vaccination services financially sustainable for all provider types.

Simulated impacts and potential cost effectiveness of Communities Putting Prevention to Work: Tobacco control interventions in 21 U.S. communities, 2010-2020.

In 2010, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) funded communities to implement policy, systems, and environmental (PSE) changes under the Communities Putting Prevention to Work (CPPW) program to make it easier for people to make healthier choices to prevent chronic disease. Twenty-one of 50 funded communities implemented interventions intended to reduce tobacco use. To examine the potential cost-effectiveness of tobacco control changes implemented under CPPW from a healthcare system perspective, we compared program cost estimates with estimates of potential impacts. We used an existing simulation model, the Prevention Impacts Simulation Model (PRISM), to estimate the potential cumulative impact of CPPW tobacco interventions on deaths and medical costs averted through 2020. We collected data on the costs to implement CPPW tobacco interventions from 2010 to 2013. We adjusted all costs to 2010 dollars. CPPW tobacco interventions cost $130.5 million across all communities, with an average community cost of $6.2 million. We found $735 million in potentially averted medical costs cumulatively from 2010 through 2020 because of the CPPW-supported interventions. If the CPPW tobacco control PSE changes are sustained through 2020 without additional funding after 2013, we find that medical costs averted will likely exceed program costs by $604 million. Our results suggest that the medical costs averted through 2020 may more than offset the initial investment in CPPW tobacco control interventions, implying that such interventions may be cost saving, especially over the long term.

Standardized Cost Estimates for Home Visiting: Pilot Study of the Home Visiting Budget Assistance Tool (HV-BAT).

Purpose Using a standardized approach and metrics to estimate home visiting costs across multiple evidence-based models and regions could improve the consistency and accuracy of cost estimates, allow stakeholders to observe trends in cost allocation, analyze how home visiting costs vary, and develop future program budgets. Between October 2015 and December 2018, we developed and pilot-tested the Home Visiting Budget Assistance Tool (HV-BAT) to standardize the collection of home visiting program costs and analyze costs for local implementing agencies (LIAs). Methods We recruited LIAs that implemented at least one of nine evidence-based home visiting models in 15 states implementing the Maternal, Infant, and Early Childhood Home Visiting (MIECHV) Program. LIAs reported their costs to implement a home visiting model using the HV-BAT and provided feedback on the tool. We estimated annual total cost and cost per family served for each LIA, examined cost summary statistics for the sample, and analyzed whether and how LIA characteristics affected home visiting costs using regression analyses. Results Of the 168 LIAs invited to participate in the HV-BAT pilot study, 75 agreed to participate, and 45 across 14 states completed the HV-BAT. We estimated home visiting costs of approximately $8500 per family per year, but costs varied across LIAs (range $1970-$39,770; standard deviation = $5794). The marginal cost of adding a family declined as the number of families served by an LIA increased. Feedback from LIAs indicated that users had difficulty providing some details on costs (e.g., mileage for specific services), needed more detailed instructions, and desired a summary of subtotals and total costs reported in the HV-BAT. Conclusions The HV-BAT provides an approach to standardize cost data collection for home visiting programs. Pilot study results indicate that there may be significant economies of scale for home visiting services. This study provides preliminary estimates of costs that can help in program planning and budgeting.

Estimating the Relative Impact of Clinical and Preventive Community-Based Interventions: An Example Based on the Community Transformation Grant Program.

INTRODUCTION: Public health focuses on a range of evidence-based approaches for addressing chronic conditions, from individual-level clinical interventions to broader changes in policies and environments that protect people's health and make healthy living easier. This study examined the potential long-term impact of clinical and community interventions as they were implemented by Community Transformation Grant (CTG) program awardees. METHODS: We used the Prevention Impacts Simulation Model, a system dynamics model of cardiovascular disease prevention, to simulate the potential 10-year and 25-year impact of clinical and community interventions implemented by 32 communities receiving a CTG program award, assuming that program interventions were sustained during these periods. RESULTS: Sustained clinical interventions implemented by CTG awardees could potentially avert more than 36,000 premature deaths and $3.2 billion in discounted direct medical costs (2017 US dollars) over 10 years and 109,000 premature deaths and $8.1 billion in discounted medical costs over 25 years. Sustained community interventions could avert more than 24,000 premature deaths and $3.4 billion in discounted direct medical costs over 10 years and 88,000 premature deaths and $9.1 billion in discounted direct medical costs over 25 years. CTG clinical activities had cost-effectiveness of $302,000 per death averted at the 10-year mark and $188,000 per death averted at the 25-year mark. Community interventions had cost-effectiveness of $169,000 and $57,000 per death averted at the 10- and 25-year marks, respectively. CONCLUSION: Clinical interventions have the potential to avert more premature deaths than community interventions. However, community interventions, if sustained over the long term, have better cost-effectiveness.

Estimating Costs of Implementing Stroke Systems of Care and Data-Driven Improvements in the Paul Coverdell National Acute Stroke Program.

PURPOSE AND OBJECTIVES: We evaluated the costs of implementing coordinated systems of stroke care by state health departments from 2012 through 2015 to help policy makers and planners gain a sense of the potential return on investments in establishing a stroke care quality improvement (QI) program. INTERVENTION APPROACH: State health departments funded by the Paul Coverdell National Acute Stroke Program (PCNASP) implemented activities to support the start and proficient use of hospital stroke registries statewide and coordinate data-driven QI efforts. These efforts were aimed at improving the treatment and transition of stroke patients from prehospital emergency medical services (EMS) to in-hospital care and postacute care facilities. Health departments provided technical assistance and data to support hospitals, EMS agencies, and posthospital care agencies to carry out small, rapid, incremental QI efforts to produce more effective and efficient stroke care practices. EVALUATION METHODS: Six of the 11 PCNASP-funded state health departments in the United States volunteered to collect and report programmatic costs associated with implementing the components of stroke systems of care. Six health departments reported costs paid directly by Centers for Disease Control and Prevention-provided funds, 5 also reported their own in-kind contributions, and 4 compiled data from a sample of their partners' estimated costs of resources, such as staff time, involved in program implementation. Costs were analyzed separately for PCNASP-funded expenditures and in-kind contributions by the health department by resource category and program activity. In-kind contributions by partners were also analyzed separately. RESULTS: PCNASP-funded expenditures ranged from $790,123 to $1,298,160 across the 6 health departments for the 3-year funding period. In-kind contributions ranged from $5,805 to $1,394,097. Partner contributions (n = 22) ranged from $3,912 to $362,868. IMPLICATIONS FOR PUBLIC HEALTH: Our evaluation reports costs for multiple state health departments and their partners for implementing components of stroke systems of care in the United States. Although there are limitations, our findings represent key estimates that can guide future program planning and efforts to achieve sustainability.

Costs of community-based interventions from the Community Transformation Grants.

Limited data are available on the costs of evidence-based community-wide prevention programs. The objective of this study was to estimate the per-person costs of strategies that support policy, systems, and environmental changes implemented under the Community Transformation Grants (CTG) program. We collected cost data from 29 CTG awardees and estimated program costs as spending on labor; consultants; materials, travel, and services; overhead activities; partners; and the value of in-kind contributions. We estimated costs per person reached for 20 strategies. We assessed how per-person costs varied with the number of people reached. Data were collected in 2012-2015, and the analysis was conducted in 2015-2016. Two of the tobacco-free living strategies cost less than $1.20 per person and reached over 6 million people each. Four of the healthy eating strategies cost less than $1.00 per person, and one of them reached over 6.5 million people. One of the active living strategies cost $2.20 per person and reached over 7 million people. Three of the clinical and community preventive services strategies cost less than $2.30 per person, and one of them reached almost 2 million people. Across all 20 strategies combined, an increase of 10,000 people in the number of people reached was associated with a $0.22 reduction in the per-person cost. Results demonstrate that interventions, such as tobacco-free indoor policies, which have been shown to improve health outcomes have relatively low per-person costs and are able to reach a large number of people.

The cost-effectiveness of using chronic kidney disease risk scores to screen for early-stage chronic kidney disease.

BACKGROUND: Better treatment during early stages of chronic kidney disease (CKD) may slow progression to end-stage renal disease and decrease associated complications and medical costs. Achieving early treatment of CKD is challenging, however, because a large fraction of persons with CKD are unaware of having this disease. Screening for CKD is one important method for increasing awareness. We examined the cost-effectiveness of identifying persons for early-stage CKD screening (i.e., screening for moderate albuminuria) using published CKD risk scores. METHODS: We used the CKD Health Policy Model, a micro-simulation model, to simulate the cost-effectiveness of using CKD two published risk scores by Bang et al. and Kshirsagar et al. to identify persons in the US for CKD screening with testing for albuminuria. Alternative risk score thresholds were tested (0.20, 0.15, 0.10, 0.05, and 0.02) above which persons were assigned to receive screening at alternative intervals (1-, 2-, and 5-year) for follow-up screening if the first screening was negative. We examined incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs), incremental lifetime costs divided by incremental lifetime QALYs, relative to the next higher screening threshold to assess cost-effectiveness. Cost-effective scenarios were determined as those with ICERs less than $50,000 per QALY. Among the cost-effective scenarios, the optimal scenario was determined as the one that resulted in the highest lifetime QALYs. RESULTS: ICERs ranged from $8,823 per QALY to $124,626 per QALY for the Bang et al. risk score and $6,342 per QALY to $405,861 per QALY for the Kshirsagar et al. risk score. The Bang et al. risk score with a threshold of 0.02 and 2-year follow-up screening was found to be optimal because it had an ICER less than $50,000 per QALY and resulted in the highest lifetime QALYs. CONCLUSIONS: This study indicates that using these CKD risk scores may allow clinicians to cost-effectively identify a broader population for CKD screening with testing for albuminuria and potentially detect people with CKD at earlier stages of the disease than current approaches of screening only persons with diabetes or hypertension.

The future burden of CKD in the United States: a simulation model for the CDC CKD Initiative.

BACKGROUND: Awareness of chronic kidney disease (CKD), defined by kidney damage or reduced glomerular filtration rate, remains low in the United States, and few estimates of its future burden exist. STUDY DESIGN: We used the CKD Health Policy Model to simulate the residual lifetime incidence of CKD and project the prevalence of CKD in 2020 and 2030. The simulation sample was based on nationally representative data from the 1999 to 2010 National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys. SETTING & POPULATION: Current US population. MODEL, PERSPECTIVE, & TIMELINE: Simulation model following up individuals from current age through death or age 90 years. OUTCOMES: Residual lifetime incidence represents the projected percentage of persons who will develop new CKD during their lifetimes. Future prevalence is projected for 2020 and 2030. MEASUREMENTS: Development and progression of CKD are based on annual decrements in estimated glomerular filtration rates that depend on age and risk factors. RESULTS: For US adults aged 30 to 49, 50 to 64, and 65 years or older with no CKD at baseline, the residual lifetime incidences of CKD are 54%, 52%, and 42%, respectively. The prevalence of CKD in adults 30 years or older is projected to increase from 13.2% currently to 14.4% in 2020 and 16.7% in 2030. LIMITATIONS: Due to limited data, our simulation model estimates are based on assumptions about annual decrements in estimated glomerular filtration rates. CONCLUSIONS: For an individual, lifetime risk of CKD is high, with more than half the US adults aged 30 to 64 years likely to develop CKD. Knowing the lifetime incidence of CKD may raise individuals' awareness and encourage them to take steps to prevent CKD. From a national burden perspective, we estimate that the population prevalence of CKD will increase in coming decades, suggesting that development of interventions to slow CKD onset and progression should be considered.

Using simulation to compare established and emerging interventions to reduce cardiovascular disease risk in the United States.

INTRODUCTION: Computer simulation offers the ability to compare diverse interventions for reducing cardiovascular disease risks in a controlled and systematic way that cannot be done in the real world. METHODS: We used the Prevention Impacts Simulation Model (PRISM) to analyze the effect of 50 intervention levers, grouped into 6 (2 x 3) clusters on the basis of whether they were established or emerging and whether they acted in the policy domains of care (clinical, mental health, and behavioral services), air (smoking, secondhand smoke, and air pollution), or lifestyle (nutrition and physical activity). Uncertainty ranges were established through probabilistic sensitivity analysis. RESULTS: Results indicate that by 2040, all 6 intervention clusters combined could result in cumulative reductions of 49% to 54% in the cardiovascular risk-related death rate and of 13% to 21% in risk factor-attributable costs. A majority of the death reduction would come from Established interventions, but Emerging interventions would also contribute strongly. A slim majority of the cost reduction would come from Emerging interventions. CONCLUSION: PRISM allows public health officials to examine the potential influence of different types of interventions - both established and emerging - for reducing cardiovascular risks. Our modeling suggests that established interventions could still contribute much to reducing deaths and costs, especially through greater use of well-known approaches to preventive and acute clinical care, whereas emerging interventions have the potential to contribute significantly, especially through certain types of preventive care and improved nutrition.

Descriptive analysis to assess seasonal patterns of COVID-19 and influenza in low-income and middle-income countries in Asia, the Middle East and Latin America.

OBJECTIVES: Understanding disease seasonality can help predict the occurrence of outbreaks and inform public health planning. Respiratory diseases typically follow seasonal patterns; however, knowledge regarding the seasonality of COVID-19 and its impact on the seasonality of influenza remains limited. The objective of this study was to provide more evidence to understand the circulation of SARS-CoV-2, the virus responsible for COVID-19, in an endemic scenario to guide potential preventive strategies. DESIGN: In this study, a descriptive analysis was undertaken to describe seasonality trends and/or overlap between COVID-19 and influenza in 12 low-income and middle-income countries using Our World in Data and FluMart data sources. Plots of COVID-19 and influenza cases were analysed. SETTING: Singapore, Thailand, Malaysia, the Philippines, Argentina, Brazil, Mexico, South Africa, Morocco, Bahrain, Qatar and Saudi Arabia. OUTCOME MEASURES: COVID-19 cases and influenza cases. RESULTS: No seasonal patterns of SARS-CoV-2 or SARS-CoV-2/influenza cocirculation were observed in most countries, even when considering the avian influenza pandemic period. CONCLUSIONS: These results can inform public health strategies. The lack of observed seasonal behaviour highlights the importance of maintaining year-round vaccination rather than implementing seasonal campaigns. Further research investigating the influence of climate conditions, social behaviour and year-round preventive measures could be fundamental for shaping appropriate policies related to COVID-19 and respiratory viral disease control in low-income and middle-income countries as COVID-19 variant data and epidemiologic patterns accrue over time.

Feeding patterns during the first 2 years and health outcome.

Low-birth-weight infants, in particular those with birth weights <1,500 g, benefit from fortified breast milk. Low protein intake is critical, because it is limiting growth. Long-term health outcomes in small-for-gestational-age infants from developing countries in relation to their early nutrition still need to be evaluated in controlled trials. Term infants both in developing and developed countries also benefit from exclusive breastfeeding: an analysis of a large dataset of surveys from 20 developing countries (168,000 infants and small children from the Demographic Health Survey, United States Agency for International Development) indicates that exclusive breastfeeding until 6 months is associated with significantly higher weight, length, and lower probability of stunting, wasting, and infections. Nine out of 10 infants still receive breast milk between 6 and 12 months and probability of infections tends to be lower if breastfeeding is continued during that age range. Between 12 and 24 months, when stunting and wasting rates are already high, 7 out of 10 infants still receive breast milk. No associations of feeding patterns with disease outcome can be found. Effectiveness trials of complementary feeding strategies in food-insecure countries are urgently needed. Follow-up until 10 years in a developed country now indicates that an infant population at risk for allergic diseases benefits both from breastfeeding and the use of hypoallergenic formula during the first 4 months of life, when compared to cow's milk-based formula: both the cumulative incidences of atopic disease and all allergic diseases are significantly lower.

Public health impact and economic value of booster vaccination with Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine, bivalent (Original and Omicron BA.4/BA.5) in the United States.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the public health impact and economic value of booster vaccination with the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 Vaccine, Bivalent in the United States. METHODS: A combined cohort Markov decision tree model estimated the cost-effectiveness and budget impact of booster vaccination compared to no booster vaccination in individuals aged ≥5 years. Analyses prospectively assessed three scenarios (base case, low, high) defined based upon the emergence (or not) of subvariants, using list prices. Age-stratified parameters were informed by literature. The cost-effectiveness analysis estimated cases, hospitalizations and deaths averted, Life Years (LYs) and Quality Adjusted Life Years (QALYs) gained, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER), the net monetary benefit (NMB), and the Return on Investment (ROI). The budget impact analyses used the perspective of a hypothetical 1-million-member plan. Sensitivity analyses explored parameter uncertainty. Conservatively, indirect effects and broad societal benefits were not considered. RESULTS: The base case predicted that, compared to no booster vaccination, the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 Vaccine, Bivalent could result in ∼3.7 million fewer symptomatic cases, 162 thousand fewer hospitalizations, 45 thousand fewer deaths, 373 thousand fewer discounted QALYs lost, and was cost-saving. Using a conservative value of $50,000 for 1 LY, every $1 invested yielded estimated $4.67 benefits. Unit costs, health outcomes and effectiveness had the greatest impact on results. At $50,000 per QALY gained, the booster generated a 34.2 billion NMB and probabilistic sensitivity analyses indicated a 92% chance of being cost-saving and 98% of being cost-effective. The bivalent was cost-saving or highly cost-effective in high and low scenarios. In a hypothetical 1-million-member health plan population, the vaccine was predicted to be a budget-efficient solution for payers. CONCLUSIONS: Booster vaccination with the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 Vaccine, Bivalent for the US population aged ≥5 years could generate notable public health impact and be cost-saving based on the findings of our base case analyses.

Estimated global public health and economic impact of COVID-19 vaccines in the pre-omicron era using real-world empirical data.

BACKGROUND: Limited data are available describing the global impact of COVID-19 vaccines. This study estimated the global public health and economic impact of COVID-19 vaccines before the emergence of the Omicron variant. METHODS: A static model covering 215 countries/territories compared the direct effects of COVID-19 vaccination to no vaccination during 13 December 2020-30 September 2021. After adjusting for underreporting of cases and deaths, base case analyses estimated total cases and deaths averted, and direct outpatient and productivity costs saved through averted health outcomes. Sensitivity analyses applied alternative model assumptions. RESULTS: COVID-19 vaccines prevented an estimated median (IQR) of 151.7 (133.7-226.1) million cases and 620.5 (411.1-698.1) thousand deaths globally through September 2021. In sensitivity analysis applying an alternative underreporting assumption, median deaths averted were 2.1 million. Estimated direct outpatient cost savings were $21.2 ($18.9-30.9) billion and indirect savings of avoided productivity loss were $135.1 ($121.1-206.4) billion, yielding a total cost savings of $155 billion globally through averted infections. CONCLUSIONS: Using a conservative modeling approach that considered direct effects only, we estimated that COVID-19 vaccines have averted millions of infections and deaths, generating billions of cost savings worldwide, which underscore the continued importance of vaccination in public health response to COVID-19.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of PCV20 to prevent pneumococcal disease in the Canadian pediatric population.

This study assessed the cost-effectiveness of the 20-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV20) in Canadian infants aged <2 years versus the standard of care (SoC), a 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13), or a potential 15-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV15). A decision-analytic Markov model was developed to compare PCV20 with PCV13 or PCV15 in a 2 + 1 schedule over 10 years. Vaccine effect estimates (direct and indirect) across all ages were informed by PCV13 clinical effectiveness and impact studies as well as PCV7 efficacy studies. Epidemiologic, clinical, health state utilities, utility decrements, cost per event, and list price data were from Canadian sources where available. Clinical and economic outcomes related to invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD), hospitalized and non-hospitalized pneumonia, and simple and complex otitis media (OM) were calculated for each strategy. Cost-effectiveness was evaluated from the publicly funded healthcare system perspective. Over 10 years, PCV20 versus PCV13 was estimated to avert over 11,000 IPD cases, 316,000 hospitalized and non-hospitalized pneumonia cases, 335,000 simple and complex OM cases, and 15,000 deaths, resulting in cost savings of over 3.2 billion Canadian dollars (CAD) and 47,000 more quality-adjusted life years (i.e. dominant strategy). Compared with PCV15, PCV20 was estimated to result in over 1.4 billion CAD in cost savings and 21,000 more QALYs (i.e. dominant strategy). PCV20 was dominant over both PCV13 and PCV15. Given broader serotype coverage, substantial incremental benefits and cost-savings, PCV20 should be considered as a replacement for the SoC in the publicly funded Canadian infant immunization program.

Patient flow time data of COVID-19 vaccination clinics in 23 sites, United States, April and May 2021.

INTRODUCTION: Public health department (PHD) led COVID-19 vaccination clinics can be a critical component of pandemic response as they facilitate high volume of vaccination. However, few patient-time analyses examining patient throughput at mass vaccination clinics with unique COVID-19 vaccination challenges have been published. METHODS: During April and May of 2021, 521 patients in 23 COVID-19 vaccination sites counties of 6 states were followed to measure the time spent from entry to vaccination. The total time was summarized and tabulated by clinic characteristics. A multivariate linear regression analysis was conducted to evaluate the association between vaccination clinic settings and patient waiting times in the clinic. RESULTS: The average time a patient spent in the clinic from entry to vaccination was 9 min 5 s (range: 02:00-23:39). Longer patient flow times were observed in clinics with higher numbers of doses administered, 6 or fewer vaccinators, walk-in patients accepted, dedicated services for people with disabilities, and drive-through clinics. The multivariate linear regression showed that longer patient waiting times were significantly associated with the number of vaccine doses administered, dedicated services for people with disabilities, the availability of more than one brand of vaccine, and rurality. CONCLUSIONS: Given the standardized procedures outlined by immunization guidelines, reducing the wait time is critical in lowering the patient flow time by relieving the bottleneck effect in the clinic. Our study suggests enhancing the efficiency of PHD-led vaccination clinics by preparing vaccinators to provide vaccines with proper and timely support such as training or delivering necessary supplies and paperwork to the vaccinators. In addition, patient wait time can be spent answering questions about vaccination or reviewing educational materials on other public health services.