Development and validation of a novel radiomics-clinical model for predicting post-stroke epilepsy after first-ever intracerebral haemorrhage.

OBJECTIVES: Post-stroke epilepsy (PSE) is associated with increased morbidity and mortality. This study aimed to develop and validate a novel prediction model combining clinical factors and radiomics features to accurately identify patients at high risk of developing PSE after intracerebral haemorrhage (ICH). METHODS: Researchers performed a retrospective medical chart review to extract derivation and validation cohorts of patients with first-ever ICH that attended two tertiary hospitals in China between 2010 and 2020. Clinical data were extracted from electronic medical records and supplemented by tele-interview. Predictive clinical variables were selected by multivariable logistic regression to build the clinical model. Predictive radiomics features were identified, and a Rad-score was calculated according to the coefficient of the selected feature. Both clinical variables and radiomic features were combined to build the radiomics-clinical model. Performances of the clinical, Rad-score, and combined models were compared. RESULTS: A total of 1571 patients were included in the analysis. Cortical involvement, early seizures within 7 days of ICH, NIHSS score, and ICH volume were included in the clinical model. Rad-score, instead of ICH volume, was included in the combined model. The combined model exhibited better discrimination ability and achieved an overall better benefit against threshold probability than the clinical model in the decision curve analysis (DCA). CONCLUSIONS: The combined radiomics-clinical model was better able to predict ICH-associated PSE compared to the clinical model. This can help clinicians better predict an individual patient's risk of PSE following a first-ever ICH and facilitate earlier PSE diagnosis and treatment. KEY POINTS: • Radiomics has not been used in predicting the risk of developing PSE. • Higher Rad-scores were associated with higher risk of developing PSE. • The combined model showed better performance of PSE prediction ability.

External validation and comparison of clinical scores for predicting late seizures after intracerebral hemorrhage in Chinese patients.

PURPOSE: Clinical scores have been established to predict the probability of late seizures following intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) for individual patients, including the CAVE, CAVS and LANE scores. The purpose of this study was to compare these prediction scores in the Chinese population and undertake an independent external validation on them. METHODS: At one tertiary hospital in China, we retrospectively recruited consecutive inpatients who had been diagnosed with ICH. Medical records and tele interviews with a modified standardized questionnaire were used to identify late seizures. All the predictors of the prediction scores were collected from patient charts and databases by a standardized data collection protocol. The external validation of the prediction scores was quantified by the area under the curve (AUC), sensitivity, specificity, Youden index (YI), positive predictive value (PPV), and negative predictive value (NPV). RESULTS: 69 (5.4%) of 1276 patients experienced late seizures after ICH. There was no significant difference in the CAVE, CAVS, and LANE scores, which had AUCs of 0.75 (95% CI = 0.70-0.81), 0.74 (95% CI = 0.68-0.80), and 0.76 (95% CI = 0.70-0.82), respectively. At the optimal cutoff score, the LANE score had a lower sensitivity but a higher specificity than the CAVE and CAVS scores. Among the three prediction scores, the LANE score had a higher PPV than the others (0.145 vs. 0.088, 0.083), while the NPV was similar among the three prediction scores (0.989, 0.989, and 0.972). CONCLUSION: Our study showed that the CAVE, CAVS and LANE scores had similar AUCs for the occurrence of late seizures, but the LANE score had a relatively high PPV at the optimal cutoff score. Due to low evidence for using prophylactic antiseizure medications (ASM) in patients with ICH and poor availability of specialist stroke care in China, the LANE score with a cutoff score of 3 could be an applicable prediction tool in Chinese patients with ICH.

Direct bilirubin: A predictor of hematoma expansion after intracerebral hemorrhage.

BACKGROUND: Previous evidence demonstrated that several biomarkers involved in the pathological process of coagulation/hemostasis dysfunction, impairment of brain vascular integrity and inflammation are associated with hematoma expansion (HE) after intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH). We aimed to explore whether there were unreported laboratory biomarkers associated with HE that were readily and commonly available in clinical practice. METHODS: We retrospectively analyzed consecutive acute ICH patients from 2012 to 2020 with admission laboratory tests and baseline and follow-up computed tomography (CT) scans. Univariate and multivariate regression analyses were used to evaluate associations between conventional laboratory indicators and HE. The results were verified in a prospective validation cohort. The relationship of candidate biomarker and 3-month outcomes was also investigated and mediation analysis was undertaken to determine causal associations among candidate biomarker, HE and outcome. RESULTS: Of 734 ICH patients, 163 (22.2%) presented HE. Among the included laboratory indicators, higher direct bilirubin (DBil) was associated with HE (adjusted odds ratio [OR] of per 1.0 µmol/L change 1.082; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.011-1.158). DBil >5.65 µmol/L was a predictor of HE in validation cohort. Higher DBil was also associated with poor 3-month outcomes. The mediation analysis indicated that the association of higher DBil and poor outcomes was partially mediated by HE. CONCLUSIONS: DBil is a predictor of HE and poor 3-month outcomes after ICH. DBil's metabolic process and involvement in the pathological mechanism of HE are likely to contribute to the association between DBil and HE. Interventions targeting DBil to improve post-ICH prognosis may be meaningful and worthy of further exploration.

Association between minimally invasive surgery and late seizures in patients with intracerebral hemorrhage: A propensity score matching study.

Purpose: The association between minimally invasive surgery (MIS) for hematoma evacuation and late seizures after intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) remains uncertain. We aimed to investigate whether MIS increases the risk of late seizures after ICH and identify the risk factors for late seizures in this patient subgroup. Methods: We retrospectively included consecutive inpatients diagnosed with ICH at two tertiary hospitals in China. The subjects were divided into the MIS group (ICH patients who received MIS including hematoma aspiration and thrombolysis) and conservative treatment group (ICH patients who received conservative medication). Propensity score matching was performed to balance possible risk factors for late seizures between the MIS and conservative treatment groups. Before and after matching, between-group comparisons of the incidence of late seizures were performed between the MIS and conservative treatment groups. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to identify independent risk factors for late seizures in MIS-treated patients. Results: A total of 241 and 1,689 patients were eligible for the MIS and conservative treatment groups, respectively. After matching, 161 ICH patients from the MIS group were successfully matched with 161 ICH patients from the conservative treatment group (1:1). Significant differences (p < 0.001) were found between the MIS group (31/241, 12.9%) and conservative treatment group (69/1689, 4.1%) in the incidence of late seizures before matching. However, after matching, no significant differences (p = 0.854) were found between the MIS group (17/161, 10.6%) and conservative treatment group (16/161, 9.9%). Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that cortical involvement (OR = 2.547; 95% CI = 1.137-5.705; p value = 0.023) and higher National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) scores (OR = 1.050; 95% CI = 1.008-1.094; p value = 0.019) were independent risk factors for late seizures. Conclusion: Our study revealed that receiving MIS did not increase the incidence of late seizures after ICH. Additionally, cortical involvement and NIHSS scores were independent risk factors for late seizures in MIS-treated patients.