Changes in cardiovascular disease risk predicted by the Framingham risk model in the Hong Kong population between 2003-2005 and 2014-2015: data from Population Health Surveys.

INTRODUCTION: The Framingham risk model estimates a person's 10-year cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk. This study used this model to calculate the changes in sex- and age-specific CVD risks in the Hong Kong Population Health Survey (PHS) 2014/15 compared with two previous surveys conducted during 2003 and 2005, namely, PHS 2003/2004 and Heart Health Survey (HHS) 2004/2005. METHODS: This study included individuals aged 30 to 74 years from PHS 2014/15 (n=1662; n=4 445 868 after population weighting) and PHS 2003/2004 and HHS 2004/2005 (n=818; n=3 495 074 after population weighting) with complete data for calculating the risk of CVD predicted by the Framingham model. Sex-specific CVD risks were calculated based on age, total cholesterol and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels, mean systolic blood pressure, smoking habit, diabetic status, and hypertension treatment. Mean sex- and age-specific CVD risks were calculated; differences in CVD risk between the two surveys were compared by independent t tests. RESULTS: The difference in 10-year CVD risk from 2003-2005 to 2014-2015 was not statistically significant (10.2% vs 10.6%; P=0.29). After age standardisation according to World Health Organization world standard population data, a small decrease in CVD risk was observed, from 9.4% in 2003-2005 to 8.8% in 2014-2015. Analysis according to age-group showed that more participants aged 65 to 74 years were considered high risk in 2003 to 2005 (2003-2005: 66.8% vs 2014-2015: 53.1%; P=0.028). This difference may be due to the decrease in smokers among men (2003-2005: 30.5% vs 2014-2015: 24.0%; P<0.001). CONCLUSION: From 2003-2005 to 2014-2015, there was a small decrease in age-standardised 10-year CVD risk. A holistic public health approach simultaneously targeting multiple risk factors is needed to achieve greater decreases in CVD risk.

How are family doctors serving the Hong Kong community during the COVID-19 outbreak? A survey of HKCFP members.

INTRODUCTION: This study evaluated the preparedness of family doctors during the early phase of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak in Hong Kong. METHODS: All members of the Hong Kong College of Family Physicians were invited to participate in a cross-sectional online survey using a 20-item questionnaire to collect information on practice preparedness for the COVID-19 outbreak through an email followed by a reminder SMS message between 31 January 2020 and 3 February 2020. RESULTS: Of 1589 family doctors invited, 491 (31%) participated in the survey, including 242 (49%) from private sector. In all, 98% surveyed doctors continued to provide clinical services during the survey period, but reduced clinic service demands were observed in 45% private practices and 24% public clinics. Almost all wore masks during consultation and washed hands between or before patient contact. Significantly more private than public doctors (80% vs 26%, P<0.001) experienced difficulties in stocking personal protective equipment (PPE); more public doctors used guidelines to manage suspected patients. The main concern of the respondents was PPE shortage. Respondents appealed for effective public health interventions including border control, quarantine measures, designated clinic setup, and public education. CONCLUSION: Family doctors from public and private sectors demonstrated preparedness to serve the community from the early phase of the COVID-19 outbreak with heightened infection control measures and use of guidelines. However, there is a need for support from local health authorities to secure PPE supply and institute public health interventions.

Rapid Estimate of Inadequate Health Literacy (REIHL): development and validation of a practitioner-friendly health literacy screening tool for older adults.

INTRODUCTION: This study aimed to develop and validate a brief practitioner-friendly health literacy screening tool, called Rapid Estimate of Inadequate Health Literacy (REIHL), that estimates patients' health literacy inadequacy in demanding clinical settings. METHODS: This is a methodological study of 304 community-dwelling older adults recruited from one community health centre and five district elderly community centres. Logistic regression models were used to identify the coefficients of the REIHL score's significant factors. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis was then used to assess the REIHL's sensitivity and specificity. Path analysis was employed to examine the REIHL's criterion validity with the Chinese Health Literacy Scale for Chronic Care and concurrent validity with self-rated health scale and the Geriatric Depression Scale-15. RESULTS: The REIHL has scores ranging from 0 to 23. It had 76.9% agreement with the Chinese Health Literacy Scale for Chronic Care. The area under the ROC curve for predicting health literacy inadequacy was 0.82 (95% confidence interval=0.78-0.87, P<0.001). The ROC curve of the REIHL showed that scores ≥11 had a sensitivity of 77.8% and specificity of 75.6% for predicting health literacy inadequacy. The path analysis model showed excellent fit (Chi squared [2, 304] 0.16, P=0.92, comparative fit index 1.00, root mean square error of approximation <0.001, 90% confidence interval=0.00-0.04), indicating that the REIHL has good criterion and concurrent validity. CONCLUSION: The newly developed REIHL is a practical tool for estimating older adults' inadequate health literacy in clinical care settings.

Hypertriglyceridaemic-waist phenotype and risk of diabetes in people with impaired fasting glucose in primary care: a cohort study.

AIM: We aimed to determine the prospective association between baseline triglyceridaemic-waist phenotypes and diabetic mellitus incidence in individuals with impaired fasting glucose seen in primary care. METHODS: A cohort of 1101 participants (84.4% of the recruited individuals) with impaired fasting glucose were recruited from three primary care clinics during regular follow-ups to monitor their chronic conditions. Baseline triglyceridaemic-waist phenotypes were divided into four groups: (1) normal waistline and triglyceride level (n = 252); (2) isolated central obesity (n = 518); (3) isolated high triglyceride level (n = 80); and (4) central obesity with high triglyceride level (i.e. hypertriglyceridaemic-waist phenotype) (n = 251). The presence of diabetes at follow-up was determined by fasting plasma glucose (≥ 7.0 mmol/l) and/or 2-h 75-g oral glucose tolerance test (≥ 11.1 mmol/l) and/or HbA1c (47.5 mmol/mol; ≥ 6.5%) according to American Diabetes Association diagnostic criteria. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards regressions were established to assess the impact of different triglyceridaemic-waist phenotypes on time to diabetes onset. RESULTS: After a mean follow-up period of 6.5 months (sd 4.7 months), the number of diabetes cases was significantly higher in the group with hypertriglyceridaemic-waist phenotype (52.2%) compared with the other three phenotype groups (group 1: 28.2%; group 2: 34.6%; group 3: 30.0%). Only the hypertriglyceridaemic-waist phenotype showed an increased risk of developing diabetes (hazard ratio 1.581, 95% CI 1.172-2.134; P = 0.003) compared with the group with normal waistline and triglyceride level after controlling for confounders. CONCLUSIONS: The combination of central obesity and hypertriglyceridaemia is associated with > 50% risk of progression to diabetes within 6 months among individuals with impaired fasting glucose seen in primary care.

Relation between HbA1c and incident cardiovascular disease over a period of 6 years in the Hong Kong population.

AIM: The current trend on diabetes management advocates replacing the paradigm from a uniform to an individualized patient-centered haemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) target, but there is no consensus on the optimal HbA1c level. The study aimed at examining the association between HbA1c and the risk of cardiovascular diseases (CVD) for diabetic patients with different characteristics, in order to identify patient-centered treatment targets. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study was conducted on 115,782 Chinese adult primary care patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (DM) but no known CVD history, who were prescribed antidiabetic medications in 2010-2011. The cumulative mean HbA1c over a median follow-up period of 5.8 years was used to evaluate the relationship between HbA1c and CVD incidence using Cox analysis. Subgroup analyses were conducted by stratifying different baseline characteristics including gender, age, smoking status, diabetes duration, body mass index, Charlson's comorbidity index and DM treatment modalities. RESULTS: For patients with a DM duration of<2years, an exponential relationship between HbA1c and risk of CVD was identified, suggesting that there was no threshold HbA1c level for CVD risk. For other diabetic patients, an HbA1c level of 6.8-7.2% was associated with a minimum risk for CVD and a J-shaped curvilinear association between HbA1c. The risk of CVD increased in patients with HbA1c<6.5% or ≥7.5%. CONCLUSION: Among Chinese primary care patients at the early (<2years) disease stage, lower HbA1c targets (<6.5%) may be warranted to prevent CVD events whilst for all others, excessively lower HbA1c levels may not necessarily better and can potentially be harmful.