RESUMO
BACKGROUND: Several risk scores have been developed for predicting cognitive impairment and dementia, but none have been validated in Asian samples. We aimed to produce a risk score that best predicts incident neurocognitive disorder (NCD) among Chinese elderly and to validate this score against the modified risk score derived from the Cardiovascular Risk Factors, Aging and Dementia (CAIDE) study. METHODS: Data from participants enrolled in the Singapore Longitudinal Ageing Study (SLAS) 1 were analyzed. A total of 957 participants >55 years of age with normal cognition at baseline were included. Incident cases of NCD were measured using the global Clinical Dementia Rating (CDR) and determined by a consensus panel. RESULTS: The best prediction model from SLAS included age, gender, education, depression, heart disease, social and productive activities and Mini-Mental State Examination score. This model predicted the short-term risk of incident NCD in elderly participants moderately well, with a C statistic (area under the curve) of 0.72. Modified CAIDE models applied to our sample had a C statistic of 0.71. CONCLUSION: Our risk score performs as well as other available risk scores. It is the only risk score formulated for ethnic Chinese, rendering it valuable for clinical use in Asia; at-risk individuals can be identified for early intervention.