Placing our current 'hyperthermal' in the context of rapid climate change in our geological past.

'…there are known knowns. These are things we know that we know. There are known unknowns. That is to say, there are things that we know we don't know. But there are also unknown unknowns. There are things we don't know we don't know.' Donald Rumsfeld 12th February 2002.This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'Hyperthermals: rapid and extreme global warming in our geological past'.

Greenhouse- and orbital-forced climate extremes during the early Eocene.

The Palaeocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) was a significant global warming event in Earth's deep past (56 Mya). The warming across the PETM boundary was driven by a rapid rise in greenhouse gases. The event also coincided with a time of maximum insolation in Northern Hemisphere summer. There is increased evidence that the mean warming was accompanied by enhanced seasonality and/or extremes in precipitation (and flooding) and drought. A high horizontal resolution (50 km) global climate model is used to explore changes in the seasonal cycle of surface temperature, precipitation, evaporation minus precipitation and river run-off for regions where proxy data are available. Comparison for the regions indicates the model accurately simulates the observed changes in these climatic characteristics with North American interior warming and drying, and warming and increased river run-off at other regions. The addition of maximum insolation in Northern Hemisphere summer leads to a drier North America, but wetter conditions at most other locations. Long-range transport of atmospheric moisture plays a critical role in explaining regional changes in the water cycle. Such high-frequency variations in precipitation might also help explain discrepancies or misinterpretation of some climate proxies from the same locations, especially where sampling is coarse, i.e. at or greater than the frequency of precession.This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'Hyperthermals: rapid and extreme global warming in our geological past'.

Capturing the global signature of surface ocean acidification during the Palaeocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum.

Geologically abrupt carbon perturbations such as the Palaeocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM, approx. 56 Ma) are the closest geological points of comparison to current anthropogenic carbon emissions. Associated with the rapid carbon release during this event are profound environmental changes in the oceans including warming, deoxygenation and acidification. To evaluate the global extent of surface ocean acidification during the PETM, we present a compilation of new and published surface ocean carbonate chemistry and pH reconstructions from various palaeoceanographic settings. We use boron to calcium ratios (B/Ca) and boron isotopes (δ11B) in surface- and thermocline-dwelling planktonic foraminifera to reconstruct ocean carbonate chemistry and pH. Our records exhibit a B/Ca reduction of 30-40% and a δ11B decline of 1.0-1.2‰ coeval with the carbon isotope excursion. The tight coupling between boron proxies and carbon isotope records is consistent with the interpretation that oceanic absorption of the carbon released at the onset of the PETM resulted in widespread surface ocean acidification. The remarkable similarity among records from different ocean regions suggests that the degree of ocean carbonate change was globally near uniform. We attribute the global extent of surface ocean acidification to elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide levels during the main phase of the PETM.This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'Hyperthermals: rapid and extreme global warming in our geological past'.

Early Palaeogene temperature evolution of the southwest Pacific Ocean.

Relative to the present day, meridional temperature gradients in the Early Eocene age ( approximately 56-53 Myr ago) were unusually low, with slightly warmer equatorial regions but with much warmer subtropical Arctic and mid-latitude climates. By the end of the Eocene epoch ( approximately 34 Myr ago), the first major Antarctic ice sheets had appeared, suggesting that major cooling had taken place. Yet the global transition into this icehouse climate remains poorly constrained, as only a few temperature records are available portraying the Cenozoic climatic evolution of the high southern latitudes. Here we present a uniquely continuous and chronostratigraphically well-calibrated TEX(86) record of sea surface temperature (SST) from an ocean sediment core in the East Tasman Plateau (palaeolatitude approximately 65 degrees S). We show that southwest Pacific SSTs rose above present-day tropical values (to approximately 34 degrees C) during the Early Eocene age ( approximately 53 Myr ago) and had gradually decreased to about 21 degrees C by the early Late Eocene age ( approximately 36 Myr ago). Our results imply that there was almost no latitudinal SST gradient between subequatorial and subpolar regions during the Early Eocene age (55-50 Myr ago). Thereafter, the latitudinal gradient markedly increased. In theory, if Eocene cooling was largely driven by a decrease in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentration, additional processes are required to explain the relative stability of tropical SSTs given that there was more significant cooling at higher latitudes.

Environmental precursors to rapid light carbon injection at the Palaeocene/Eocene boundary.

The start of the Palaeocene/Eocene thermal maximum--a period of exceptional global warming about 55 million years ago--is marked by a prominent negative carbon isotope excursion that reflects a massive input of 13C-depleted ('light') carbon to the ocean-atmosphere system. It is often assumed that this carbon injection initiated the rapid increase in global surface temperatures and environmental change that characterize the climate perturbation, but the exact sequence of events remains uncertain. Here we present chemical and biotic records of environmental change across the Palaeocene/Eocene boundary from two sediment sections in New Jersey that have high sediment accumulation rates. We show that the onsets of environmental change (as recorded by the abundant occurrence ('acme') of the dinoflagellate cyst Apectodinium) and of surface-ocean warming (as evidenced by the palaeothermometer TEX86) preceded the light carbon injection by several thousand years. The onset of the Apectodinium acme also precedes the carbon isotope excursion in sections from the southwest Pacific Ocean and the North Sea, indicating that the early onset of environmental change was not confined to the New Jersey shelf. The lag of approximately 3,000 years between the onset of warming in New Jersey shelf waters and the carbon isotope excursion is consistent with the hypothesis that bottom water warming caused the injection of 13C-depleted carbon by triggering the dissociation of submarine methane hydrates, but the cause of the early warming remains uncertain.

Astrochronology of the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum on the Atlantic Coastal Plain.

The chronology of the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM, ~56 Ma) remains disputed, hampering complete understanding of the possible trigger mechanisms of this event. Here we present an astrochronology for the PETM carbon isotope excursion from Howards Tract, Maryland a paleoshelf environment, on the mid-Atlantic Coastal Plain. Statistical evaluation of variations in calcium content and magnetic susceptibility indicates astronomical forcing was involved and the PETM onset lasted about 6 kyr. The astrochronology and Earth system modeling suggest that the PETM onset occurred at an extreme in precession during a maximum in eccentricity, thus favoring high temperatures, indicating that astronomical forcing could have played a role in triggering the event. Ca content data on the paleo-shelf, along with other marine records, support the notion that a carbonate saturation overshoot followed global ocean acidification during the PETM.

Surface ocean warming and acidification driven by rapid carbon release precedes Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum.

The Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) is recognized by a major negative carbon isotope (δ13C) excursion (CIE) signifying an injection of isotopically light carbon into exogenic reservoirs, the mass, source, and tempo of which continue to be debated. Evidence of a transient precursor carbon release(s) has been identified in a few localities, although it remains equivocal whether there is a global signal. Here, we present foraminiferal δ13C records from a marine continental margin section, which reveal a 1.0 to 1.5‰ negative pre-onset excursion (POE), and concomitant rise in sea surface temperature of at least 2°C and a decline in ocean pH. The recovery of both δ13C and pH before the CIE onset and apparent absence of a POE in deep-sea records suggests a rapid (< ocean mixing time scales) carbon release, followed by recovery driven by deep-sea mixing. Carbon released during the POE is therefore likely more similar to ongoing anthropogenic emissions in mass and rate than the main CIE.

Astronomical pacing of late Palaeocene to early Eocene global warming events.

At the boundary between the Palaeocene and Eocene epochs, about 55 million years ago, the Earth experienced a strong global warming event, the Palaeocene-Eocene thermal maximum. The leading hypothesis to explain the extreme greenhouse conditions prevalent during this period is the dissociation of 1,400 to 2,800 gigatonnes of methane from ocean clathrates, resulting in a large negative carbon isotope excursion and severe carbonate dissolution in marine sediments. Possible triggering mechanisms for this event include crossing a threshold temperature as the Earth warmed gradually, comet impact, explosive volcanism or ocean current reorganization and erosion at continental slopes, whereas orbital forcing has been excluded. Here we report a distinct carbonate-poor red clay layer in deep-sea cores from Walvis ridge, which we term the Elmo horizon. Using orbital tuning, we estimate deposition of the Elmo horizon at about 2 million years after the Palaeocene-Eocene thermal maximum. The Elmo horizon has similar geochemical and biotic characteristics as the Palaeocene-Eocene thermal maximum, but of smaller magnitude. It is coincident with carbon isotope depletion events in other ocean basins, suggesting that it represents a second global thermal maximum. We show that both events correspond to maxima in the approximately 405-kyr and approximately 100-kyr eccentricity cycles that post-date prolonged minima in the 2.25-Myr eccentricity cycle, implying that they are indeed astronomically paced.

A humid climate state during the Palaeocene/Eocene thermal maximum.

An abrupt climate warming of 5 to 10 degrees C during the Palaeocene/Eocene boundary thermal maximum (PETM) 55 Myr ago is linked to the catastrophic release of approximately 1,050-2,100 Gt of carbon from sea-floor methane hydrate reservoirs. Although atmospheric methane, and the carbon dioxide derived from its oxidation, probably contributed to PETM warming, neither the magnitude nor the timing of the climate change is consistent with direct greenhouse forcing by the carbon derived from methane hydrate. Here we demonstrate significant differences between marine and terrestrial carbon isotope records spanning the PETM. We use models of key carbon cycle processes to identify the cause of these differences. Our results provide evidence for a previously unrecognized discrete shift in the state of the climate system during the PETM, characterized by large increases in mid-latitude tropospheric humidity and enhanced cycling of carbon through terrestrial ecosystems. A more humid atmosphere helps to explain PETM temperatures, but the ultimate mechanisms underlying the shift remain unknown.

A Warm, Stratified, and Restricted Labrador Sea Across the Middle Eocene and Its Climatic Optimum.

Several studies indicate that North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) formation might have initiated during the globally warm Eocene (56-34 Ma). However, constraints on Eocene surface ocean conditions in source regions presently conducive to deep water formation are sparse. Here we test whether ocean conditions of the middle Eocene Labrador Sea might have allowed for deep water formation by applying (organic) geochemical and palynological techniques, on sediments from Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Site 647. We reconstruct a long-term sea surface temperature (SST) drop from ~30°C to ~27°C between 41.5 to 38.5 Ma, based on TEX86. Superimposed on this trend, we record ~2°C warming in SST associated with the Middle Eocene Climatic Optimum (MECO; ~40 Ma), which is the northernmost MECO record as yet, and another, likely regional, warming phase at ~41.1 Ma, associated with low-latitude planktic foraminifera and dinoflagellate cyst incursions. Dinoflagellate cyst assemblages together with planktonic foraminiferal stable oxygen isotope ratios overall indicate low surface water salinities and strong stratification. Benthic foraminifer stable carbon and oxygen isotope ratios differ from global deep ocean values by 1-2‰ and 2-4‰, respectively, indicating geographic basin isolation. Our multiproxy reconstructions depict a consistent picture of relatively warm and fresh but also highly variable surface ocean conditions in the middle Eocene Labrador Sea. These conditions were unlikely conducive to deep water formation. This implies either NADW did not yet form during the middle Eocene or it formed in a different source region and subsequently bypassed the southern Labrador Sea.

An astronomically dated record of Earth's climate and its predictability over the last 66 million years.

Much of our understanding of Earth's past climate comes from the measurement of oxygen and carbon isotope variations in deep-sea benthic foraminifera. Yet, long intervals in existing records lack the temporal resolution and age control needed to thoroughly categorize climate states of the Cenozoic era and to study their dynamics. Here, we present a new, highly resolved, astronomically dated, continuous composite of benthic foraminifer isotope records developed in our laboratories. Four climate states-Hothouse, Warmhouse, Coolhouse, Icehouse-are identified on the basis of their distinctive response to astronomical forcing depending on greenhouse gas concentrations and polar ice sheet volume. Statistical analysis of the nonlinear behavior encoded in our record reveals the key role that polar ice volume plays in the predictability of Cenozoic climate dynamics.

On impact and volcanism across the Cretaceous-Paleogene boundary.

The cause of the end-Cretaceous mass extinction is vigorously debated, owing to the occurrence of a very large bolide impact and flood basalt volcanism near the boundary. Disentangling their relative importance is complicated by uncertainty regarding kill mechanisms and the relative timing of volcanogenic outgassing, impact, and extinction. We used carbon cycle modeling and paleotemperature records to constrain the timing of volcanogenic outgassing. We found support for major outgassing beginning and ending distinctly before the impact, with only the impact coinciding with mass extinction and biologically amplified carbon cycle change. Our models show that these extinction-related carbon cycle changes would have allowed the ocean to absorb massive amounts of carbon dioxide, thus limiting the global warming otherwise expected from postextinction volcanism.

Antarctic Ice Sheet variability across the Eocene-Oligocene boundary climate transition.

About 34 million years ago, Earth's climate cooled and an ice sheet formed on Antarctica as atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) fell below ~750 parts per million (ppm). Sedimentary cycles from a drill core in the western Ross Sea provide direct evidence of orbitally controlled glacial cycles between 34 million and 31 million years ago. Initially, under atmospheric CO2 levels of ≥600 ppm, a smaller Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS), restricted to the terrestrial continent, was highly responsive to local insolation forcing. A more stable, continental-scale ice sheet calving at the coastline did not form until ~32.8 million years ago, coincident with the earliest time that atmospheric CO2 levels fell below ~600 ppm. Our results provide insight into the potential of the AIS for threshold behavior and have implications for its sensitivity to atmospheric CO2 concentrations above present-day levels.

Long-term legacy of massive carbon input to the Earth system: Anthropocene versus Eocene.

Over the next few centuries, with unabated emissions of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2), a total of 5000 Pg C may enter the atmosphere, causing CO2 concentrations to rise to approximately 2000 ppmv, global temperature to warm by more than 8(°)C and surface ocean pH to decline by approximately 0.7 units. A carbon release of this magnitude is unprecedented during the past 56 million years-and the outcome accordingly difficult to predict. In this regard, the geological record may provide foresight to how the Earth system will respond in the future. Here, we discuss the long-term legacy of massive carbon release into the Earth's surface reservoirs, comparing the Anthropocene with a past analogue, the Palaeocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM, approx. 56 Ma). We examine the natural processes and time scales of CO2 neutralization that determine the atmospheric lifetime of CO2 in response to carbon release. We compare the duration of carbon release during the Anthropocene versus PETM and the ensuing effects on ocean acidification and marine calcifying organisms. We also discuss the conundrum that the observed duration of the PETM appears to be much longer than predicted by models that use first-order assumptions. Finally, we comment on past and future mass extinctions and recovery times of biotic diversity.

Assessing "dangerous climate change": required reduction of carbon emissions to protect young people, future generations and nature.

We assess climate impacts of global warming using ongoing observations and paleoclimate data. We use Earth's measured energy imbalance, paleoclimate data, and simple representations of the global carbon cycle and temperature to define emission reductions needed to stabilize climate and avoid potentially disastrous impacts on today's young people, future generations, and nature. A cumulative industrial-era limit of ∼500 GtC fossil fuel emissions and 100 GtC storage in the biosphere and soil would keep climate close to the Holocene range to which humanity and other species are adapted. Cumulative emissions of ∼1000 GtC, sometimes associated with 2°C global warming, would spur "slow" feedbacks and eventual warming of 3-4°C with disastrous consequences. Rapid emissions reduction is required to restore Earth's energy balance and avoid ocean heat uptake that would practically guarantee irreversible effects. Continuation of high fossil fuel emissions, given current knowledge of the consequences, would be an act of extraordinary witting intergenerational injustice. Responsible policymaking requires a rising price on carbon emissions that would preclude emissions from most remaining coal and unconventional fossil fuels and phase down emissions from conventional fossil fuels.

The geological record of ocean acidification.

Ocean acidification may have severe consequences for marine ecosystems; however, assessing its future impact is difficult because laboratory experiments and field observations are limited by their reduced ecologic complexity and sample period, respectively. In contrast, the geological record contains long-term evidence for a variety of global environmental perturbations, including ocean acidification plus their associated biotic responses. We review events exhibiting evidence for elevated atmospheric CO(2), global warming, and ocean acidification over the past ~300 million years of Earth's history, some with contemporaneous extinction or evolutionary turnover among marine calcifiers. Although similarities exist, no past event perfectly parallels future projections in terms of disrupting the balance of ocean carbonate chemistry-a consequence of the unprecedented rapidity of CO(2) release currently taking place.

The Palaeocene-Eocene carbon isotope excursion: constraints from individual shell planktonic foraminifer records.

The Palaeocene-Eocene thermal maximum (PETM) is characterized by a global negative carbon isotope excursion (CIE) and widespread dissolution of seafloor carbonate sediments. The latter feature supports the hypothesis that the PETM and CIE were caused by the rapid release of a large mass (greater than 2000Gt C) of 12C-enriched carbon. The source of this carbon, however, remains a mystery. Possible sources include volcanically driven thermal combustion of organic-rich sediment, dissociation of seafloor methane hydrates and desiccation and oxidation of soil/sediment organics. A key constraint on the source(s) is the rate at which the carbon was released. Fast rates would be consistent with a catastrophic event, e.g. massive methane hydrate dissociation, whereas slower rates might implicate other processes. The PETM carbon flux is currently constrained by high-resolution marine and terrestrial records of the CIE. In pelagic bulk carbonate records, the onset of the CIE is often expressed as a single- or multiple-step excursion extending over 10(4) years. Individual planktonic shell records, in contrast, always show a single-step CIE, with either pre-excursion or excursion isotope values, but no transition values. Benthic foraminifera records, which are less complete owing to extinction and diminutive assemblages, show a delayed excursion. Here, we compile and evaluate the individual planktonic shell isotope data from several localities. We find that the most expanded records consistently show a bimodal isotope distribution pattern regardless of location, water depth or depositional facies. This suggests one of several possibilities: (i) the isotopic composition of the surface ocean/atmosphere declined in a geologic instant (<500yr), (ii) that during the onset of the CIE, most shells of mixed-layer planktonic foraminifera were dissolved, or (iii) the abundances or shell production of these species temporarily declined, possibly due to initial pH changes.

Marked decline in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations during the Paleogene.

The relation between the partial pressure of atmospheric carbon dioxide (pCO2) and Paleogene climate is poorly resolved. We used stable carbon isotopic values of di-unsaturated alkenones extracted from deep sea cores to reconstruct pCO2 from the middle Eocene to the late Oligocene (approximately 45 to 25 million years ago). Our results demonstrate that pCO2 ranged between 1000 to 1500 parts per million by volume in the middle to late Eocene, then decreased in several steps during the Oligocene, and reached modern levels by the latest Oligocene. The fall in pCO2 likely allowed for a critical expansion of ice sheets on Antarctica and promoted conditions that forced the onset of terrestrial C4 photosynthesis.