[Assessing and forecasting morbidity of adolescents living in area influenced by aluminium production].

Objective of the study--to forecast morbidity (of respiratory diseases) among adolescents via mathematic modelling during primary exploitation of new aluminium production (exemplified by Taishet city). Incidence during 2003-2011 of all diseases in the adolescents equalled 1129,1 per thousand, of respiratory diseases--627,4 per thousand. The mathematic model was designed to reveal role of environmental hazards in morbidity formation. According to medium-term forecast results, launching the aluminium production plant in East Siberia in 3 years will increase by 67% the morbidity with respiratory diseases in the adolescents.

[Development of measures to health maintenance in the programs of the socioeconomic developments of areas].

The paper deals with the information provision and use of mathematical statistical and mathematical economic methods in the substantiation of measures provided by the socioeconomic development programs. The development of a package of human health maintenance measures may involve 2 stages: (1) analysis of long-term data on the man-caused pollution of environmental objects, socioeconomic conditions, and the medicodemographic situation; (2) medium-range forecast of indicators. Testing the proposed approaches applied in Irkutsk has ascertained that the investment area development causes a steady-state decrease in morbidity rates in all population groups and a reduction in disorders-caused economic damages.