Development and External Validation of Models to Predict Persistent Hypoxemic Respiratory Failure for Clinical Trial Enrichment.

OBJECTIVES: Improving the efficiency of clinical trials in acute hypoxemic respiratory failure (HRF) depends on enrichment strategies that minimize enrollment of patients who quickly resolve with existing care and focus on patients at high risk for persistent HRF. We aimed to develop parsimonious models predicting risk of persistent HRF using routine data from ICU admission and select research immune biomarkers. DESIGN: Prospective cohorts for derivation ( n = 630) and external validation ( n = 511). SETTING: Medical and surgical ICUs at two U.S. medical centers. PATIENTS: Adults with acute HRF defined as new invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV) and hypoxemia on the first calendar day after ICU admission. INTERVENTIONS: None. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: We evaluated discrimination, calibration, and practical utility of models predicting persistent HRF risk (defined as ongoing IMV and hypoxemia on the third calendar day after admission): 1) a clinical model with least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) selecting Pa o2 /F io2 , vasopressors, mean arterial pressure, bicarbonate, and acute respiratory distress syndrome as predictors; 2) a model adding interleukin-6 (IL-6) to clinical predictors; and 3) a comparator model with Pa o2 /F io2 alone, representing an existing strategy for enrichment. Forty-nine percent and 69% of patients had persistent HRF in derivation and validation sets, respectively. In validation, both LASSO (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, 0.68; 95% CI, 0.64-0.73) and LASSO + IL-6 (0.71; 95% CI, 0.66-0.76) models had better discrimination than Pa o2 /F io2 (0.64; 95% CI, 0.59-0.69). Both models underestimated risk in lower risk deciles, but exhibited better calibration at relevant risk thresholds. Evaluating practical utility, both LASSO and LASSO + IL-6 models exhibited greater net benefit in decision curve analysis, and greater sample size savings in enrichment analysis, compared with Pa o2 /F io2 . The added utility of LASSO + IL-6 model over LASSO was modest. CONCLUSIONS: Parsimonious, interpretable models that predict persistent HRF may improve enrichment of trials testing HRF-targeted therapies and warrant future validation.

Risk Factors and Outcomes Associated With Heart Failure With Preserved and Reduced Ejection Fraction in People With Chronic Kidney Disease.

BACKGROUND: Heart failure (HF) is associated with poor outcomes in people with chronic kidney disease, yet it is unknown whether outcomes differ by HF subtype. This study aimed to examine associations of incident HF with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF) versus HF with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF) with progression to end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) and mortality. METHODS: We studied individuals with chronic kidney disease in the CRIC study (Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort) who were free of HF at cohort entry. Incident HF hospitalizations were adjudicated and classified into HFpEF (ejection fraction, ≥50%) or HFrEF (ejection fraction, <50%) based on echocardiograms performed during the hospitalization or at a research study visit. ESKD was defined as need for chronic dialysis or kidney transplant. Cox proportional hazards were used to evaluate the association of time-updated HF subtype with risk of ESKD and mortality, adjusting for demographics, comorbidities, and medication use. RESULTS: Among the 3557 study participants without HF at cohort entry, mean age was 57 years and mean estimated glomerular filtration rate was 45 mL/min per 1.73 m2. A total of 682 participants had incident HF. Incidence rates for HFpEF and HFrEF were 0.9 (95% CI, 0.8-1.0) and 0.7 (95% CI, 0.6-0.8) per 100 person-years, respectively (Pdifference=0.005). Associations of incident HF with progression to ESKD were not statistically different for HFpEF (hazard ratio, 2.06 [95% CI, 1.66-2.56]) and HFrEF (hazard ratio, 1.80 [95% CI, 1.36-2.38]; P=0.42). The associations with mortality were stronger for HFrEF (hazard ratio, 2.73 [95% CI, 2.24-3.33]) compared with HFpEF (hazard ratio, 1.99 [95% CI, 1.65-2.40]; P=0.0002). CONCLUSIONS: In a chronic kidney disease population, the rates of HFpEF hospitalizations were greater than that of HFrEF. Risk of ESKD was high but not statically different across HF subtypes. There was a stronger association of HFrEF with mortality. Prevention and treatment of both HFpEF and HFrEF should be central priorities to improve outcomes in chronic kidney disease.

Kidney Outcomes and Trajectories of Tubular Injury and Function in Critically Ill Patients With and Without COVID-19.

IMPORTANCE: COVID-19 may injure the kidney tubules via activation of inflammatory host responses and/or direct viral infiltration. Most studies of kidney injury in COVID-19 lacked contemporaneous controls or measured kidney biomarkers at a single time point. OBJECTIVES: To better understand mechanisms of acute kidney injury in COVID-19, we compared kidney outcomes and trajectories of tubular injury, viability, and function in prospectively enrolled critically ill adults with and without COVID-19. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: The COVID-19 Host Response and Outcomes study prospectively enrolled patients admitted to ICUs in Washington State with symptoms of lower respiratory tract infection, determining COVID-19 status by nucleic acid amplification on arrival. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: We evaluated major adverse kidney events (MAKE) defined as a doubling of serum creatinine, kidney replacement therapy, or death, in 330 patients after inverse probability weighting. In the 181 patients with available biosamples, we determined trajectories of urine kidney injury molecule-1 (KIM-1) and epithelial growth factor (EGF), and urine:plasma ratios of endogenous markers of tubular secretory clearance. RESULTS: At ICU admission, the mean age was 55 ± 16 years; 45% required mechanical ventilation; and the mean serum creatinine concentration was 1.1 mg/dL. COVID-19 was associated with a 70% greater occurrence of MAKE (relative risk 1.70; 95% CI, 1.05-2.74) and a 741% greater occurrence of KRT (relative risk 7.41; 95% CI, 1.69-32.41). The biomarker cohort had a median of three follow-up measurements. Urine EGF, secretory clearance ratios, and estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) increased over time in the COVID-19 negative group but remained unchanged in the COVID-19 positive group. In contrast, urine KIM-1 concentrations did not significantly change over the course of the study in either group. CONCLUSIONS: Among critically ill adults, COVID-19 is associated with a more protracted course of proximal tubular dysfunction and reduced eGFR despite similar degrees of kidney injury.

Kidney Outcomes and Trajectories of Tubular Injury and Function in Critically Ill Persons with and without Coronavirus-2019.

Background: Coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) may injure the kidney tubules via activation of inflammatory host responses and/or direct viral infiltration. Most studies of kidney injury in COVID-19 lacked contemporaneous controls or measured kidney biomarkers at a single time point. To better understand mechanisms of AKI in COVID-19, we compared kidney outcomes and trajectories of tubular injury, viability, and function in prospectively enrolled critically ill adults with and without COVID-19. Methods: The COVID-19 Host Response and Outcomes (CHROME) study prospectively enrolled patients admitted to intensive care units in Washington state with symptoms of lower respiratory tract infection, determining COVID-19 status by nucleic acid amplification on arrival. We evaluated major adverse kidney events (MAKE) defined as a doubling of serum creatinine, kidney replacement therapy, or death, in 330 patients after inverse probability weighting. In the 181 patients with available biosamples, we determined trajectories of urine kidney injury molecule-1 (KIM-1) and epithelial growth factor (EGF), and urine:plasma ratios of endogenous markers of tubular secretory clearance. Results: At ICU admission, mean age was 55±16 years; 45% required mechanical ventilation; and mean serum creatinine concentration was 1.1 mg/dL. COVID-19 was associated with a 70% greater incidence of MAKE (95% CI 1.05, 2.74) and a 741% greater incidence of KRT (95% CI 1.69, 32.41). The biomarker cohort had a median of three follow-up measurements. Urine EGF, secretory clearance ratios, and eGFR increased over time in the COVID-19 negative group but remained unchanged in the COVID-19 positive group. In contrast, urine KIM-1 concentrations did not significantly change over the course of the study in either group. Conclusions: Among critically ill adults, COVID-19 is associated with a more protracted course of proximal tubular dysfunction.

Molecular Phenotyping of Patients with Sepsis and Kidney Injury and Differential Response to Fluid Resuscitation.

Purpose: Previous work has identified two AKI sub-phenotypes (SP1 and SP2) characterized by differences in inflammation and endothelial dysfunction. Here we identify these sub-phenotypes using biospecimens collected in the emergency department and test for differential response to restrictive versus liberal fluid strategy in sepsis-induced hypotension in the CLOVERS trial. Methods: We applied a previously validated 3-biomarker model using plasma angiopietin-1 and 2, and soluble tumor necrosis factor receptor-1 to classify sub-phenotypes in patients with kidney dysfunction (AKI or end-stage kidney disease [ESKD]). We also compared a de novo latent class analysis (LCA) to the 3-biomarker based sub-phenotypes. Kaplan-Meier estimates were used to test for differences in outcomes and sub-phenotype by treatment interaction. Results: Among 1289 patients, 846 had kidney dysfunction on enrollment and the 3-variable prediction model identified 605 as SP1 and 241 as SP2. The optimal LCA model identified two sub-phenotypes with high correlation with the 3-biomarker model (Cohen's Kappa 0.8). The risk of 28 and 90-day mortality was greater in SP2 relative to SP1 independent of AKI stage and SOFA scores. Patients with SP2, characterized by more severe endothelial injury and inflammation, had a reduction in 28-day mortality with a restrictive fluid strategy versus a liberal fluid strategy (26% vs 41%), while patients with SP1 had no difference in 28-day mortality (10% vs 11%) (p-value-for-interaction = 0.03). Conclusion: Sub-phenotypes can be identified in the emergency department that respond differently to fluid strategy in sepsis. Identification of these sub-phenotypes could inform a precision-guided therapeutic approach for patients with sepsis-induced hypotension and kidney injury.

Risk factors for hip and vertebral fractures in chronic kidney disease: the CRIC study.

Fracture risk is high in chronic kidney disease (CKD) and underlying pathophysiology and risk factors may differ from the general population. In a cohort study of 3939 participants in the chronic renal insufficiency cohort (CRIC), we used Cox regression to test associations of putative risk factors with the composite of first hip or vertebral fracture assessed using hospital discharge codes. Mean age was 58 years, 45% were female, 42% were Black, and 13% were Hispanic. There were 82 hip and 24 vertebral fractures over a mean (SD) 11.1 (4.8) years (2.4 events per 1000 person-years [95% CI: 2.0, 2.9]). Measured at baseline, diabetes, lower body mass index (BMI), steroid use, proteinuria, and elevated parathyroid hormone (PTH) were each associated with fracture risk after adjusting for covariates. Lower time-updated estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) was associated with fractures (HR 1.20 per 10 mL/min/1.73m2 lower eGFR; 95% CI: 1.04, 1.38) as were lower time-updated serum calcium and bicarbonate concentrations. Among time-updated categories of kidney function, hazard ratios (95% CI) for incident fracture were 4.53 (1.77, 11.60) for kidney failure treated with dialysis and 2.48 (0.86, 7.14) for post-kidney transplantation, compared with eGFR ≥60. Proton pump inhibitor use, dietary calcium intake, measures of vitamin D status, serum phosphate, urine calcium and phosphate, and plasma fibroblast growth factor-23 were not associated with fracture risk. In conclusion, lower eGFR in CKD is associated with higher fracture risk, which was highest in kidney failure. Diabetes, lower BMI, steroid use, proteinuria, higher serum concentrations of PTH, and lower calcium and bicarbonate concentrations were associated with fractures and may be modifiable risk factors.

People with chronic kidney disease are at high risk of fractures. Our research assessed the relationship between several patient characteristics and the risk of fractures in 3939 patients with chronic kidney disease. We found that the following characteristics were associated with a higher risk of a hip or spine fracture: having diabetes, lower body mass index, use of steroid-containing medications, lower kidney filtration rate ("eGFR"), higher amounts of protein spilled in the urine, lower calcium and bicarbonate levels, and higher parathyroid hormone levels. Future studies should assess if improving these characteristics decreases the risk of fractures in patients with chronic kidney disease.

Impaired incretin homeostasis in non-diabetic moderate-severe CKD.

Background: Incretins are regulators of insulin secretion and glucose homeostasis that are metabolized by dipeptidyl peptidase-4 (DPP-4). Moderate-severe CKD may modify incretin release, metabolism, or response. Methods: We performed 2-hour oral glucose tolerance testing (OGTT) in 59 people with non-diabetic CKD (eGFR<60 ml/min per 1.73 m2) and 39 matched controls. We measured total (tAUC) and incremental (iAUC) area under the curve of plasma total glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) and total glucose-dependent insulinotropic polypeptide (GIP). Fasting DPP-4 levels and activity were measured. Linear regression was used to adjust for demographic, body composition, and lifestyle factors. Results: Mean eGFR was 38 ±13 and 89 ±17ml/min per 1.73 m2 in CKD and controls. GLP-1 iAUC and GIP iAUC were higher in CKD than controls with a mean of 1531 ±1452 versus 1364 ±1484 pMxmin, and 62370 ±33453 versus 42365 ±25061 pgxmin/ml, respectively. After adjustment, CKD was associated with 15271 pMxmin/ml greater GIP iAUC (95% CI 387, 30154) compared to controls. Adjustment for covariates attenuated associations of CKD with higher GLP-1 iAUC (adjusted difference, 122, 95% CI -619, 864). Plasma glucagon levels were higher at 30 minutes (mean difference, 1.6, 95% CI 0.3, 2.8 mg/dl) and 120 minutes (mean difference, 0.84, 95% CI 0.2, 1.5 mg/dl) in CKD compared to controls. There were no differences in insulin levels or plasma DPP-4 activity or levels between groups. Conclusion: Incretin response to oral glucose is preserved or augmented in moderate-severe CKD, without apparent differences in circulating DPP-4 concentration or activity. However, neither insulin secretion nor glucagon suppression are enhanced.