[Effects of future climate change on climatic suitability of flue-cured tobacco plantation in Yunnan, China.] / 未来气候变化对云南烤烟种植气候适宜性的影响.

The climatic suitability distribution of flue-cured tobacco planting in Yunnan will be profoundly affected by climate change. According to three key factors influencing climatic suitability of flue-cured tobacco planting in Yunnan, namely, average temperature in July, sunshine duration from July to August, precipitation from April to September, the variations of climatic suitability distribution of flue-cured tobacco planting in Yunnan respectively in 1986-2005, 2021-2040 and 2041-2060 under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios were investigated by using the climatic simulation data in 1981-2060 and the meteorological observation data during 1986-2005. The results showed that climatic suitability region would expand northward and eastward and plantable area of flue-cured tobacco would gradually increase. The increment of plantable area was more in 2041-2060 than in 2021-2040, and under RCP8.5 scenario than under RCP4.5 scenario. The optimum climatic area and sub-suitable climatic area were expanded considerably, while the suitable climatic area was not much changed. In the future, the north-central Yunnan such as Kunming, Qujing, Dali, Chuxiong, Lijiang would have a big increase in both the optimum climatic area and the cultivable area, meanwhile, the southern Yunnan including Wenshan, Honghe, Puer and Xishuangbanna would have a big decrease in both the optimum climatic area and the cultivable area.

[Simulation model of the development stages of flue-cured tobacco based on physiological development period and growing degree days].

Based on the 2010-2011 experimental data of planting flue-cured tobacco in its representative production counties of Yunnan Province, Southwest China, the models of the tobacco plant physiological development period and growing degree days were established, and validated by the observation data from local agro-meteorological stations. The two models had good performance at pre-transplanting stage, and the errors of the estimated dates were smaller. After transplanting stage, the errors of the estimated dates were larger, because of the disturbances from farming activities such as transplanting and topping. The simulated values based on the tobacco plant physiological development period had a higher coincidence with the observed values, especially at the pretransplanting stage, with the errors of the estimated dates being smaller than two days. As affected by the photoperiod effect, the model of tobacco plant physiological development period fitted better in high latitude regions than in low latitude regions.