Metabolic biomarkers significantly enhance the prediction of HBV-related ACLF occurrence and outcomes.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is a clinical syndrome associated with high short-term mortality in patients with chronic liver disease. Chronic hepatitis B is the main cause of ACLF (HBV-ACLF) in China and other Asian countries. To improve disease management and survival for patients with ACLF, we aimed to discover novel biomarkers to enhance HBV-ACLF diagnosis and prognostication. METHODS: We performed a metabolomics profiling of 1,024 plasma samples collected from patients with HBV-related chronic liver disease with acute exacerbation at hospital admission in a multi-year and multi-center prospective study (367 ACLF and 657 non-ACLF). The samples were randomly separated into equal halves as a discovery set and a validation set. We identified metabolites associated with 90-day mortality in the ACLF group and the progression to ACLF within 28 days in the non-ACLF group (pre-ACLF) using statistical analysis and machine learning. We developed diagnostic algorithms in the discovery set and used these to assess the findings in the validation set. RESULTS: ACLF significantly altered the plasma metabolome, particularly in membrane lipid metabolism, steroid hormones, oxidative stress pathways, and energy metabolism. Numerous metabolites were significantly associated with 90-day mortality in the ACLF group and/or pre-ACLF in the non-ACLF group. We developed algorithms for the prediction of 90-day mortality in patients with ACLF (area under the curve 0.87 and 0.83 for the discovery set and validation set, respectively) and the diagnosis of pre-ACLF (area under the curve 0.94 and 0.88 for the discovery set and validation set, respectively). To translate our discoveries into practical clinical tests, we developed targeted assays using liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry. CONCLUSIONS: Based on novel metabolite biomarkers, we established tests for HBV-related ACLF with higher accuracy than existing methods. CLINICAL TRIAL NUMBER: NCT02457637 and NCT03641872. IMPACT AND IMPLICATIONS: Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is a clinical syndrome associated with high short-term mortality affecting 25% of patients hospitalized with cirrhosis. Chronic hepatitis B is the main etiology of ACLF in China and other Asian counties. There is currently no effective therapy. Early diagnosis and accurate prognostication are critical for improving clinical outcomes in patients with ACLF. Based on novel metabolite biomarkers, we developed liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry tests with improved accuracy for the early diagnosis and prognostication of HBV-related ACLF. The liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry tests can be implemented in clinical labs and used by physicians to triage patients with HBV-related ACLF to ensure optimized clinical management.

Development and validation of a risk model with variables related to non-small cell lung cancer in patients with pulmonary nodules: a retrospective study.

BACKGROUND: Lung cancer is a major global threat to public health for which a novel predictive nomogram is urgently needed. Non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) which accounts for the main port of lung cancer cases is attracting more and more people's attention. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Here, we designed a novel predictive nomogram using a design dataset consisting of 515 pulmonary nodules, with external validation being performed using a separate dataset consisting of 140 nodules and a separate dataset consisting of 237 nodules. The selection of significant variables for inclusion in this model was achieved using a least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) logistic regression model, after which a corresponding nomogram was developed. C-index values, calibration plots, and decision curve analyses were used to gauge the discrimination, calibration, and clinical utility, respectively, of this predictive model. Validation was then performed with the internal bootstrapping validation and external cohorts. RESULTS: A predictive nomogram was successfully constructed incorporating hypertension status, plasma fibrinogen levels, blood urea nitrogen (BUN), density, ground-glass opacity (GGO), and pulmonary nodule size as significant variables associated with nodule status. This model exhibited good discriminative ability, with a C-index value of 0.765 (95% CI: 0.722-0.808), and was well-calibrated. In validation analyses, this model yielded C-index values of 0.892 (95% CI: 0.844-0.940) for external cohort and 0.853 (95% CI: 0.807-0.899) for external cohort 2. In the internal bootstrapping validation, C-index value could still reach 0.753. Decision curve analyses supported the clinical value of this predictive nomogram when used at a NSCLC possibility threshold of 18%. CONCLUSION: The nomogram constructed in this study, which incorporates hypertension status, plasma fibrinogen levels, BUN, density, GGO status, and pulmonary nodule size, was able to reliably predict NSCLC risk in this Chinese cohort of patients presenting with pulmonary nodules.

Portal vein thrombosis compromises the performance of MELD and MELD-Na scores in patients with cirrhosis.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: The accuracy of model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) and MELD with sodium (MELD-Na) scores in reflecting the clinical outcomes of patients with cirrhosis and portal vein thrombosis (PVT) remains unclear. This study aimed to evaluate the performance of scores in predicting 90-day mortality in patients with cirrhosis and PVT. METHODS: Post hoc analysis was performed in two prospective cohorts (NCT02457637 and NCT03641872). The correlation between the MELD/MELD-Na score and 90-day liver transplantation (LT)-free mortality was investigated in patients with cirrhosis with and without PVT. RESULTS: In this study, 2826 patients with cirrhosis were included, and 255 (9.02%) had PVT. The cumulative incidence of 90-day LT-free mortality did not significantly differ between patients with and without PVT (log-rank P = 0.0854). MELD [area under the receiver operating curve (AUROC), 0.649 vs. 0.842; P = 0.0036] and MELD-Na scores (AUROC, 0.691 vs. 0.851; P = 0.0108) were compared in patients with and without PVT, regarding the prediction of 90-day LT-free mortality. In MELD < 15 and MELD-Na < 20 subgroups, patients with PVT had a higher 90-day LT-free mortality than those without PVT (7.91% vs. 2.64%, log-rank P = 0.0011; 7.14% vs. 3.43%, log-rank P = 0.0223), whereas in MELD ≥ 15 and MELD-Na ≥ 20 subgroups, no significant difference was observed between patients with and without PVT. CONCLUSIONS: The performance of MELD and MELD-Na scores in predicting 90-day LT-free mortality of patients with cirrhosis was compromised by PVT. MELD < 15 or MELD-Na < 20 may underestimate the 90-day LT-free mortality in patients with PVT.

Identifying Japanese Encephalitis Virus Using Metatranscriptomic Sequencing, Xinjiang, China.

The treat of infectious disease epidemics has increased the critical need for continuous broad-ranging surveillance of pathogens with outbreak potential. Using metatranscriptomic sequencing of blood samples, we identified several cases of Japanese encephalitis virus infection from Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region, China. This discovery highlights the risk for known viral diseases even in nonendemic areas.

Natural History of and Dynamic Changes in Clinical Manifestation, Serology, and Treatment of Brucellosis, China.

Serum agglutination test plus exposure history were used to diagnose most cases of human brucellosis in 2 China provinces. After appropriate treatment, 13.3% of acute brucellosis cases progressed to chronic disease; arthritis was an early predictor. Seropositivity can persist after symptoms disappear, which might cause physicians to subjectively extend therapeutic regimens.

A lung cancer risk prediction model for nonsmokers: A retrospective analysis of lung nodule cohorts in China.

BACKGROUND: The risk of lung cancer in nonsmokers is increasing; however, there are relatively few studies on the risks of lung cancer in nonsmokers. PATIENTS AND METHODS: We collected epidemiological and clinical data from 429 nonsmoking patients with lung nodules from the Affiliated Li Huili Hospital as a training cohort and 123 nonsmoking patients with lung nodules as a testing cohort. We identified variables that might be related to malignant lung nodules from 27 variables by performing least absolute shrinkage and selection operator analysis. Univariate and multivariate analyses of these variables were conducted using binary logistic regression. Significant variables were used to generate a lung cancer risk prediction model for nodules in nonsmokers. RESULTS: We successfully constructed a predictive nomogram incorporating density, ground-glass opacities, pulmonary nodule size, hypertension, plasma fibrinogen levels, and blood urea nitrogen. This model exhibited good discriminative ability, with a C-index value of 0.788 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.742-0.833) in the training cohort and 0.888 (95% CI: 0.835-0.941) in the testing cohort; it was well-calibrated in both cohorts. Decision curve analyses supported the clinical value of this predictive nomogram when used at a lung cancer possibility threshold of 18%. Ten-fold cross-validation indicated good stability and accuracy of the model (kappa = 0.416 ± 0.128; accuracy = 0.751 ± 0.056; area under the curve = 0.768 ± 0.049). CONCLUSION: Our risk model can reasonably predict the risks of lung cancer in nonsmoking Chinese patients with lung nodules.

Current status of treatment of type 2 diabetes mellitus in Ningbo, China.

BACKGROUND: The treatment status of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) in Ningbo has not been reported in the past. To evaluate the current status of T2DM in Ningbo and provide evidence to formulate more policies, a multicenter investigation was needed. METHODS: The Ningbo Clinical Research Group of Diabetes constituted nine hospitals. Participants included 3015 patients who visited the nine hospitals from June to December 2016. General characteristics, the medication situation, the laboratory indexes in nearly 3 months consisting of glycosylated hemoglobin level (HbA1c), low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), and fasting blood glucose (FBG), and the results of ophthalmologic examination were investigated. The evaluation criteria were defined based on 2013 China guideline for T2DM. RESULTS: The 3015 subjects included 1685 men and 1330 women. The average age was 63.3 ± 13.0 years. The prevalence of hypertension and dyslipidemia was 58.7% and 56.7%, respectively. In the examinees, nephropathy appeared in 11.6% and retinopathy in 14.5%. More than half (50.9%) of the subjects were overweight. The achievement rate of blood pressure (BP) was 39.6% (<140/80 mm Hg), FBG was 46.0% (4.4-7.0 mmol/L), HbA1c was 41.7% (<7.0%), and LDL-C was 51.7% (<1.8 mmol/L; and if accompanied by CHD, <2.6). CONCLUSION: Ningbo City T2DM status is not optimistic, and there is a big gap with the indicators.

Three differential expression profiles of miRNAs as potential biomarkers for lung adenocarcinoma.

Owing to the poor prognosis, novel biomarkers for lung adenocarcinoma (LACA) are needed nowadays. The aim of the study was to identify the differential miRNAs expression between lung cancer and normal tissues and evaluate the prognostic values of the miRNAs. Multidimensional data of 528 samples were retrieved from The Cancer Genome Atlas archive. Data analysis was based on a computational approach to detect survival-associated molecular signatures. A total of 191 differentially expressed miRNAs were identified between LACA tissues and normal tissues, including 88 up-regulated and 103 down-regulated miRNAs. The Kaplan-Meier survival method revealed the prognostic function of the three miRNAs (miR-1293, miR-873 and miR-1914). Cox regression analysis showed that the three-miRNA signature was an independent prognostic factor in LACA. The functional enrichment analysis suggested that the target genes of three miRNAs may be involved in various pathways related to the cancer. This study demonstrated that the three-miRNA signature (miR-1293, miR-873 and miR-1914) could be used as a prognostic marker in LACA.

A longitudinal epidemiological study on the triglyceride and glucose index and the incident nonalcoholic fatty liver disease.

BACKGROUND: Triglyceride and glucose (TyG) index and nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) both bave been related to insulin resistance (IR). The study aimed to investigate the longitudinal relationship between TyG index and NAFLD and to evaluate the ability of TyG, through comparing with the predictive value of other indexes, to identify individuals at risk for NAFLD. METHODS: Four thousand and five hundred thirty nine subjects without NAFLD initially were followed up for 9 years. Cox regression models were used to analyze the risk factors of NAFLD. RESULTS: Cox regression analyses indicated the TyG index was independently and positively associated with the risk of incident NAFLD. In receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis, the optimal cut-off level for TyG to predict incident NAFLD was 8.52 and the area under the ROC curve (AUC) was 0.76 (95% CI 0.74-0.77), which was larger than that of TG, ALT and FPG. CONCLUSION: This study demonstrated that the elevation of the TyG index might predict increase risk for incident NAFLD and it may be suitable as a diagnostic criterion for NAFLD.

Serum Uric Acid Concentrations Can Predict Hypertension: A Longitudinal Population-Based Epidemiological Study.

An elevated serum uric acid concentration may be associated with hypertension, which is the leading cause of death worldwide. However, whether the elevation is causal or a consequence of hypertension among the Chinese population remains unclear. This study was designed to investigate the longitudinal relationship between the serum uric acid concentrations and hypertension among Chinese individuals. This study included 5105 subjects, initially without hypertension, who were followed up for 9 years. The subjects were divided into four groups based on the serum uric acid quartile. Cox proportional hazard models were used to analyse the risk factors for hypertension development. Over the 9 years, 2259 of the subjects developed hypertension. The overall 9-year cumulative incidence of hypertension was 44.3%, ranging from 36.3% in quartile 1 to 42.4%, 44.1%, and 54.5% in quartiles 2, 3, and 4, respectively (p for trend<0.001). The Cox regression analyses indicated that the serum uric acid concentrations were independently and positively associated with the risk of incident hypertension. This longitudinal study demonstrated that high serum uric acid concentrations increase the risk of hypertension among the Chinese population.

Serum Uric Acid Levels and the Risk of Obesity: a Longitudinal Population-Based Epidemiological Study.

BACKGROUND: Obesity is a common chronic disease, and elevated serum uric acid has been suggested to be associated with obesity. However, whether the elevation is casual or a consequence of obesity remains unclear. We performed the study to investigate the longitudinal association between serum uric acid levels and obesity. METHODS: A total of 4411 initially obesity-free subjects were followed up for 9 years. The subjects were divided into groups according to the serum uric acid quartile. Univariable and multivariable Cox regression models were used to analyze the risk factors for the development of obesity. RESULTS: Of the 4411 subjects, 1272 (28.8%) subjects developed obesity over 9 years of follow-up. The cumulative incidence of obesity was 21.7%, 26.4%, 31.0%, and 36.4% in quartile 1, 2, 3 and 4, respectively (p for trend < 0.001). Cox regression analyses indicated that serum uric acid levels were independently and positively associated with the risk of incident obesity. CONCLUSIONS: Our longitudinal study demonstrated that high serum uric acid levels increase the risk of obesity.

Triglyceride and glucose (TyG) index as a predictor of incident hypertension: a 9-year longitudinal population-based study.

BACKGROUND: Hypertension and the triglyceride and glucose index both have been associated with insulin resistance; however, the longitudinal association remains unclear. This study was designed to investigate the longitudinal association between the triglyceride and glucose index and incident hypertension among the Chinese population. METHODS: We studied 4686 subjects (3177 males and 1509 females) and followed up for 9 years. The subjects were divided into four groups based on the triglyceride and glucose index. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression models were used to analyse the risk factors of hypertension. RESULTS: After 9 years of follow-up, 2047 subjects developed hypertension. The overall 9-year cumulative incidence of hypertension was 43.7%, ranging from 28.5% in quartile 1 to 36.9% in quartile 2, 49.2% in quartile 3 and 59.8% in quartile 4 (p for trend < 0.001). Cox regression analyses indicated that higher triglyceride and glucose index was associated with an increased risk of subsequent incident hypertension. CONCLUSION: The triglyceride and glucose index can predict the incident hypertension among the Chinese population.

The clinical courses of HBV-related acute-on-chronic liver failure and a multi-state model to predict disease evolution.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is a highly dynamic syndrome. The objective of this study was to delineate the clinical course of patients with HBV-ACLF and to develop a model to estimate the temporal evolution of disease severity. METHODS: We enrolled eligible patients from 2 large, multicenter prospective cohorts. The ACLF grade, organ failures, and outcomes were assessed at multiple time points (days 1/4/7/14/21/28). Probabilities for ACLF transitions between these disease states and to death within 28 days were calculated using a multi-state model that used baseline information and updated ACLF status. The model was validated in independent patients. RESULTS: Among all the 445 patients with HBV-ACLF, 76 represented disease progression, 195 had a stable or fluctuating course, 8 with improvement, and the remaining 166 with resolution within 28-day follow-up. New coagulation (63.64%) or renal failure (45.45%) was frequently observed during early progression. Patients with disease progression had a higher incidence of new episodes of ascites [10 (13.16%) vs. 22 (5.96%), p = 0.027] and HE [13(17.11%) vs. 21 (5.69%), p = 0.001], and a significant increase in white blood cell count. The multi-state model represented dynamic areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves ranging from 0.71 to 0.84 for predicting all ACLF states and death at 4, 7, 14, 21, and 28 days post-enrollment and from 0.73 to 0.94 for predicting death alone, performing better than traditional prognostic scores. CONCLUSIONS: HBV-ACLF is a highly dynamic syndrome with reversibility. The multi-state model is a tool to estimate the temporal evolution of disease severity, which may inform clinical decisions on treatment.

Characterization of acute-on-chronic liver diseases: A multicenter prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Acute-on-chronic liver disease (AoCLD) accounts for the majority of patients hospitalized in the Department of Hepatology or Infectious Diseases. AIM: To explore the characterization of AoCLD to provide theoretical guidance for the accurate diagnosis and prognosis of AoCLD. METHODS: Patients with AoCLD from the Chinese Acute-on-Chronic Liver Failure (ACLF) study cohort were included in this study. The clinical characteristics and outcomes, and the 90-d survival rate associated with each clinical type of AoCLD were analyzed, using the Kaplan-Meier method and the log-rank test. RESULTS: A total of 3375 patients with AoCLD were enrolled, including 1679 (49.7%) patients with liver cirrhosis acute decompensation (LC-AD), 850 (25.2%) patients with ACLF, 577 (17.1%) patients with chronic hepatitis acute exacerbation (CHAE), and 269 (8.0%) patients with liver cirrhosis active phase (LC-A). The most common cause of chronic liver disease (CLD) was HBV infection (71.4%). The most common precipitants of AoCLD was bacterial infection (22.8%). The 90-d mortality rates of each clinical subtype of AoCLD were 43.4% (232/535) for type-C ACLF, 36.0% (36/100) for type-B ACLF, 27.0% (58/215) for type-A ACLF, 9.0% (151/1679) for LC-AD, 3.0% (8/269) for LC-A, and 1.2% (7/577) for CHAE. CONCLUSION: HBV infection is the main cause of CLD, and bacterial infection is the main precipitant of AoCLD. The most common clinical type of AoCLD is LC-AD. Early diagnosis and timely intervention are needed to reduce the mortality of patients with LC-AD or ACLF.

Mechanisms and application strategies of miRNA­146a regulating inflammation and fibrosis at molecular and cellular levels (Review).

In the progression of various diseases, inflammation has a critical role. Chronic persistent inflammation is a pivotal trigger of fibrosis. Several microRNAs (miRNAs) participate in inflammation and fibrosis. In recent years, it has been proved that miRNAs are a critical link in physiological and pathological processes. Among them, the miRNA miR­146a has a pivotal role in the immune system and acquired immunity, making it one of the most studied miRNAs. Due to its essential roles at the molecular and cellular levels, it has broad application prospects in precision medicine. The present comprehensive review focused on the mechanisms of miR­146a and its application strategies in inflammation and fibrosis, discussing its therapeutic potential. The main signaling pathways through which miR­146a regulates inflammation and fibrosis and their relationships were covered. Furthermore, the functions and effects of miR­146a in specific cells, which may join in the process of inflammation and fibrosis, were outlined. Application strategies were also summarized according to recent studies based on these mechanisms.

New Algorithm Rules Out Acute-on-chronic Liver Failure Development within 28 Days from Acute Decompensation of Cirrhosis.

Background and Aims: Approximately 10% of patients with acute decompensated (AD) cirrhosis develop acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) within 28 days. Such cases have high mortality and are difficult to predict. Therefore, we aimed to establish and validate an algorithm to identify these patients on hospitalization. Methods: Hospitalized patients with AD who developed ACLF within 28 days were considered pre-ACLF. Organ dysfunction was defined according to the chronic liver failure-sequential organ failure assessment (CLIF-SOFA) criteria, and proven bacterial infection was taken to indicate immune system dysfunction. A retrospective multicenter cohort and prospective one were used to derive and to validate the potential algorithm, respectively. A miss rate of <5% was acceptable for the calculating algorithm to rule out pre-ACLF. Results: In the derivation cohort (n=673), 46 patients developed ACLF within 28 days. Serum total bilirubin, creatinine, international normalized ratio, and present proven bacterial infection at admission were associated with the development of ACLF. AD patients with ≥2 organ dysfunctions had a higher risk for pre-ACLF patients [odds ratio=16.581 95% confidence interval: (4.271-64.363), p<0.001]. In the derivation cohort, 67.5% of patients (454/673) had ≤1 organ dysfunction and two patients (0.4%) were pre-ACLF, with a miss rate of 4.3% (missed/total, 2/46). In the validation cohort, 65.9% of patients (914/1388) had ≤1 organ dysfunction, and four (0.3%) of them were pre-ACLF, with a miss rate of 3.4% (missed/total, 4/117). Conclusions: AD patients with ≤1 organ dysfunction had a significantly lower risk of developing ACLF within 28 days of admission and could be safely ruled out with a pre-ACLF miss rate of <5%.

Hepatitis B Virus Reactivation Increased the Risk of Developing Hepatic Failure and Mortality in Cirrhosis With Acute Exacerbation.

Background and Aims: Hepatitis B virus (HBV) reactivation is a serious condition and has been extensively described in chemotherapeutic immunosuppressive population. However, little is known about HBV reactivation in immunocompetent patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB). In this study, we evaluated the prevalence and the clinical significance of HBV reactivation in CHB patients with acute exacerbations. Method: Patients were screened from two prospective multicenter observational cohorts (CATCH-LIFE cohort). A total of 1,020 CHB patients with previous antiviral treatment history were included to assess the prevalence, risk factors, clinical characteristics of HBV reactivation, and its influence on the progression of chronic liver disease. Results: The prevalence of HBV reactivation was 51.9% in CHB patients with acute exacerbations who had antiviral treatment history in our study. Among the 529 patients with HBV reactivation, 70.9% of them were triggered by discontinued antiviral treatment and 5.9% by nucleos(t)ide analogs (NUCs) resistance. The prevalence of antiviral treatment disruption and NUCs resistance in patients with HBV reactivation is much higher than that in the patients without (70.9% vs. 0.2%, and 5.9% vs. 0, respectively, both p < 0.001). Stratified and interaction analysis showed that HBV reactivation was correlated with high short-term mortality in cirrhosis subgroup (HR = 2.1, p < 0.001). Cirrhotic patients with HBV reactivation had a significantly higher proportion of developing hepatic failure (45.0% vs. 20.3%, p < 0.001), acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF; 31.4% vs. 21.8%, p = 0.005), and short-term death (14.0% vs. 5.9% for 28-day, and 23.3% vs. 12.4% for 90-day, both p < 0.001) than those without. HBV reactivation is an independent risk factor of 90-day mortality for cirrhosis patients (OR = 1.70, p = 0.005), as well as hepatic encephalopathy, ascites, and bacterial infection. Conclusion: This study clearly demonstrated that there was a high prevalence of HBV reactivation in CHB patients, which was mainly triggered by discontinued antiviral treatment. The HBV reactivation strongly increased the risk of developing hepatic failure, ACLF and short-term death in HBV-related cirrhotic patients, which may suggest that HBV reactivation would be a new challenge in achieving the WHO target of 65% reduction in mortality from hepatitis B by 2030.

Prevalence and clinical significance of serum sodium variability in patients with acute-on-chronic liver diseases: a prospective multicenter study in China.

BACKGROUND: No reports exist regarding the prevalence of different Na levels and their relationship with 90-day prognosis in hospitalized patients with acute-on-chronic liver disease (AoCLD) in China. Therefore, the benefit of hyponatremia correction in AoCLD patients remains unclear. METHODS: We prospectively collected the data of 3970 patients with AoCLD from the CATCH-LIFE cohort in China. The prevalence of different Na levels (≤ 120; 120-135; 135-145; > 145) and their relationship with 90-day prognosis were analyzed. For hyponatremic patients, we measured Na levels on days 4 and 7 and compared their characteristics, based on whether hyponatremia was corrected. RESULTS: A total of 3880 patients were involved; 712 of those developed adverse outcomes within 90 days. There were 80 (2.06%) hypernatremic, 28 (0.72%) severe hyponatremic, and 813 (20.95%) mild hyponatremic patients at admission. After adjusting for all confounding factors, the risk of 90-day adverse outcomes decreased by 5% (odds ratio [OR] 0.95; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.93-0.97; p < 0.001), 24% (OR 0.76; 95% CI 0.70-0.84; p < 0.001), and 42% (OR 0.58; 95% CI 0.49-0.70; p < 0.001) as Na level increased by 1, 5, and 10 mmol/L, respectively. Noncorrection of hyponatremia on days 4 and 7 was associated with 2.05-fold (hazard ratio [HR], 2.05; 95% CI, 1.50-2.79; p < 0.001) and 1.46-fold (HR 1.46; 95% CI 1.05-2.02; p = 0.028) higher risk of adverse outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: Hyponatremia was an independent risk factor for a poor 90-day prognosis in patients with AoCLD. Failure to correct hyponatremia in a week after admission was often associated with increased mortality. (ClinicalTrials.gov number: NCT02457637, NCT03641872). CLINICAL TRIAL NUMBERS: This study is registered at Shanghai www.clinicaltrials.org (NCT02457637 and NCT03641872).

Role of precipitants in transition of acute decompensation to acute-on-chronic liver failure in patients with HBV-related cirrhosis.

Background & Aims: Pre-acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is a distinct intermediate stage between acute decompensation (AD) and ACLF. However, identifying patients with pre-ACLF and predicting progression from AD to ACLF is difficult. This study aimed to identify pre-ACLF within 28 days, and to develop and validate a prediction model for ACLF in patients with HBV-related decompensated cirrhosis. Methods: In total, 1,736 patients with HBV-related cirrhosis and AD were enrolled from 2 large-scale, multicenter, prospective cohorts. ACLF occurrence within 28 days, readmission, and 3-month and 1-year outcomes were collected. Results: Among 970 patients with AD without ACLF in the derivation cohort, the 94 (9.6%) patients with pre-ACLF had the highest 3-month and 1-year LT-free mortality (61.6% and 70.9%, respectively), which was comparable to those with ACLF at enrollment (57.1% and 67.1%); the 251 (25.9%) patients with unstable decompensated cirrhosis had mortality rates of 22.4% and 32.1%, respectively; while the 507 (57.9%) patients with stable decompensated cirrhosis had the best outcomes (1-year mortality rate of 2.6%). Through Cox proportional hazard regression, specific precipitants, including hepatitis B flare with HBV reactivation, spontaneous hepatitis B flare with high viral load, superimposed infection on HBV, and bacterial infection, were identified to be significantly associated with ACLF occurrence in the derivation cohort. A model that incorporated precipitants, indicators of systemic inflammation and organ injuries reached a high C-index of 0.90 and 0.86 in derivation and validation cohorts, respectively. The optimal cut-off value (0.22) differentiated high-risk and low-risk patients, with a negative predictive value of 0.95. Conclusions: Three distinct clinical courses of patients with AD are validated in the HBV-etiology population. The precipitants significantly impact on AD-ACLF transition. A model developed by the precipitant-systemic inflammation-organ injury framework could be a useful tool for predicting ACLF occurrence. Clinical trial number: NCT02457637 and NCT03641872. Lay summary: It was previously shown that patients with decompensated cirrhosis could be stratified into 3 groups based on their short-term clinical prognoses. Herein, we showed that this stratification applies to patients who develop cirrhosis as a result of hepatitis B virus infection. We also developed a precipitant-based model (i.e. a model that incorporated information about the exact cause of decompensation) that could predict the likelihood of these patients developing a very severe liver disease called acute-on-chronic liver failure (or ACLF).

Prognosis prediction performs better in patients with non-cirrhosis hepatitis B virus-related acute-on-chronic liver failure than those with cirrhosis.

Background: The accurate prediction of the outcome of hepatitis B virus-related acute-on-chronic liver failure (HBV-ACLF) is impeded by population heterogeneity. The study aimed to assess the impact of underlying cirrhosis on the performance of clinical prediction models (CPMs). Methods: Using data from two multicenter, prospective cohorts of patients with HBV-ACLF, the discrimination, calibration, and clinical benefit were assessed for CPMs predicting 28-day and 90-day outcomes in patients with cirrhosis and those without, respectively. Results: A total of 919 patients with HBV-ACLF were identified by Chinese Group on the Study of Severe Hepatitis B (COSSH) criteria, including 675 with cirrhosis and 244 without. COSSH-ACLF IIs, COSSH-ACLFs, Chronic Liver Failure-Consortium Acute-on-Chronic Liver Failure score (CLIF-C ACLFs), Tongji Prognostic Predictor Model score (TPPMs), Model for End-Stage Liver Disease score (MELDs), and MELD-Sodium score (MELD-Nas) were all strong predictors of short-term mortality in patients with HBV-ACLF. In contrast to a high model discriminative capacity in ACLF without cirrhosis, each prognostic model represents a marked decline of C-index, net reclassification index (NRI), and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI) in predicting either 28-day or 90-day prognosis of patients with cirrhosis. The hazard analysis identified largely overlapping risk factors of poor outcomes in both subgroups, while serum bilirubin was specifically associated with short-term mortality in patients with cirrhosis and blood urea nitrogen in patients without cirrhosis. A subgroup analysis in patients with cirrhosis showed a decline of discrimination of CPMS in those with ascites or infections compared to that in those without. Conclusion: Predicting the short-term outcome of HBV-ACLF by CPMs is optimal in patients without cirrhosis but limited in those with cirrhosis, at least partially due to the complicated ascites or infections.