The dynamics and prognostic potential of DNA methylation changes at stem cell gene loci in women's cancer.

Aberrant DNA methylation is an important cancer hallmark, yet the dynamics of DNA methylation changes in human carcinogenesis remain largely unexplored. Moreover, the role of DNA methylation for prediction of clinical outcome is still uncertain and confined to specific cancers. Here we perform the most comprehensive study of DNA methylation changes throughout human carcinogenesis, analysing 27,578 CpGs in each of 1,475 samples, ranging from normal cells in advance of non-invasive neoplastic transformation to non-invasive and invasive cancers and metastatic tissue. We demonstrate that hypermethylation at stem cell PolyComb Group Target genes (PCGTs) occurs in cytologically normal cells three years in advance of the first morphological neoplastic changes, while hypomethylation occurs preferentially at CpGs which are heavily Methylated in Embryonic Stem Cells (MESCs) and increases significantly with cancer invasion in both the epithelial and stromal tumour compartments. In contrast to PCGT hypermethylation, MESC hypomethylation progresses significantly from primary to metastatic cancer and defines a poor prognostic signature in four different gynaecological cancers. Finally, we associate expression of TET enzymes, which are involved in active DNA demethylation, to MESC hypomethylation in cancer. These findings have major implications for cancer and embryonic stem cell biology and establish the importance of systemic DNA hypomethylation for predicting prognosis in a wide range of different cancers.

A comparison of feature selection and classification methods in DNA methylation studies using the Illumina Infinium platform.

BACKGROUND: The 27k Illumina Infinium Methylation Beadchip is a popular high-throughput technology that allows the methylation state of over 27,000 CpGs to be assayed. While feature selection and classification methods have been comprehensively explored in the context of gene expression data, relatively little is known as to how best to perform feature selection or classification in the context of Illumina Infinium methylation data. Given the rising importance of epigenomics in cancer and other complex genetic diseases, and in view of the upcoming epigenome wide association studies, it is critical to identify the statistical methods that offer improved inference in this novel context. RESULTS: Using a total of 7 large Illumina Infinium 27k Methylation data sets, encompassing over 1,000 samples from a wide range of tissues, we here provide an evaluation of popular feature selection, dimensional reduction and classification methods on DNA methylation data. Specifically, we evaluate the effects of variance filtering, supervised principal components (SPCA) and the choice of DNA methylation quantification measure on downstream statistical inference. We show that for relatively large sample sizes feature selection using test statistics is similar for M and ß-values, but that in the limit of small sample sizes, M-values allow more reliable identification of true positives. We also show that the effect of variance filtering on feature selection is study-specific and dependent on the phenotype of interest and tissue type profiled. Specifically, we find that variance filtering improves the detection of true positives in studies with large effect sizes, but that it may lead to worse performance in studies with smaller yet significant effect sizes. In contrast, supervised principal components improves the statistical power, especially in studies with small effect sizes. We also demonstrate that classification using the Elastic Net and Support Vector Machine (SVM) clearly outperforms competing methods like LASSO and SPCA. Finally, in unsupervised modelling of cancer diagnosis, we find that non-negative matrix factorisation (NMF) clearly outperforms principal components analysis. CONCLUSIONS: Our results highlight the importance of tailoring the feature selection and classification methodology to the sample size and biological context of the DNA methylation study. The Elastic Net emerges as a powerful classification algorithm for large-scale DNA methylation studies, while NMF does well in the unsupervised context. The insights presented here will be useful to any study embarking on large-scale DNA methylation profiling using Illumina Infinium beadarrays.

Independent surrogate variable analysis to deconvolve confounding factors in large-scale microarray profiling studies.

MOTIVATION: A common difficulty in large-scale microarray studies is the presence of confounding factors, which may significantly skew estimates of statistical significance, cause unreliable feature selection and high false negative rates. To deal with these difficulties, an algorithmic framework known as Surrogate Variable Analysis (SVA) was recently proposed. RESULTS: Based on the notion that data can be viewed as an interference pattern, reflecting the superposition of independent effects and random noise, we present a modified SVA, called Independent Surrogate Variable Analysis (ISVA), to identify features correlating with a phenotype of interest in the presence of potential confounding factors. Using simulated data, we show that ISVA performs well in identifying confounders as well as outperforming methods which do not adjust for confounding. Using four large-scale Illumina Infinium DNA methylation datasets subject to low signal to noise ratios and substantial confounding by beadchip effects and variable bisulfite conversion efficiency, we show that ISVA improves the identifiability of confounders and that this enables a framework for feature selection that is more robust to model misspecification and heterogeneous phenotypes. Finally, we demonstrate similar improvements of ISVA across four mRNA expression datasets. Thus, ISVA should be useful as a feature selection tool in studies that are subject to confounding. AVAILABILITY: An R-package isva is available from www.cran.r-project.org.

Optimizing the power of genome-wide association studies by using publicly available reference samples to expand the control group.

Genome-wide association (GWA) studies have proved extremely successful in identifying novel genetic loci contributing effects to complex human diseases. In doing so, they have highlighted the fact that many potential loci of modest effect remain undetected, partly due to the need for samples consisting of many thousands of individuals. Large-scale international initiatives, such as the Wellcome Trust Case Control Consortium, the Genetic Association Information Network, and the database of genetic and phenotypic information, aim to facilitate discovery of modest-effect genes by making genome-wide data publicly available, allowing information to be combined for the purpose of pooled analysis. In principle, disease or control samples from these studies could be used to increase the power of any GWA study via judicious use as "genetically matched controls" for other traits. Here, we present the biological motivation for the problem and the theoretical potential for expanding the control group with publicly available disease or reference samples. We demonstrate that a naïve application of this strategy can greatly inflate the false-positive error rate in the presence of population structure. As a remedy, we make use of genome-wide data and model selection techniques to identify "axes" of genetic variation which are associated with disease. These axes are then included as covariates in association analysis to correct for population structure, which can result in increases in power over standard analysis of genetic information from the samples in the original GWA study.

Evaluating the effects of imputation on the power, coverage, and cost efficiency of genome-wide SNP platforms.

Genotype imputation is potentially a zero-cost method for bridging gaps in coverage and power between genotyping platforms. Here, we quantify these gains in power and coverage by using 1,376 population controls that are from the 1958 British Birth Cohort and were genotyped by the Wellcome Trust Case-Control Consortium with the Illumina HumanHap 550 and Affymetrix SNP Array 5.0 platforms. Approximately 50% of genotypes at single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) exclusively on the HumanHap 550 can be accurately imputed from direct genotypes on the SNP Array 5.0 or Illumina HumanHap 300. This roughly halves differences in coverage and power between the platforms. When the relative cost of currently available genome-wide SNP platforms is accounted for, and finances are limited but sample size is not, the highest-powered strategy in European populations is to genotype a larger number of individuals with the HumanHap 300 platform and carry out imputation. Platforms consisting of around 1 million SNPs offer poor cost efficiency for SNP association in European populations.

Epigenetic variability in cells of normal cytology is associated with the risk of future morphological transformation.

BACKGROUND: Recently, it has been proposed that epigenetic variation may contribute to the risk of complex genetic diseases like cancer. We aimed to demonstrate that epigenetic changes in normal cells, collected years in advance of the first signs of morphological transformation, can predict the risk of such transformation. METHODS: We analyzed DNA methylation (DNAm) profiles of over 27,000 CpGs in cytologically normal cells of the uterine cervix from 152 women in a prospective nested case-control study. We used statistics based on differential variability to identify CpGs associated with the risk of transformation and a novel statistical algorithm called EVORA (Epigenetic Variable Outliers for Risk prediction Analysis) to make predictions. RESULTS: We observed many CpGs that were differentially variable between women who developed a non-invasive cervical neoplasia within 3 years of sample collection and those that remained disease-free. These CpGs exhibited heterogeneous outlier methylation profiles and overlapped strongly with CpGs undergoing age-associated DNA methylation changes in normal tissue. Using EVORA, we demonstrate that the risk of cervical neoplasia can be predicted in blind test sets (AUC = 0.66 (0.58 to 0.75)), and that assessment of DNAm variability allows more reliable identification of risk-associated CpGs than statistics based on differences in mean methylation levels. In independent data, EVORA showed high sensitivity and specificity to detect pre-invasive neoplasia and cervical cancer (AUC = 0.93 (0.86 to 1) and AUC = 1, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: We demonstrate that the risk of neoplastic transformation can be predicted from DNA methylation profiles in the morphologically normal cell of origin of an epithelial cancer. Having profiled only 0.1% of CpGs in the human genome, studies of wider coverage are likely to yield improved predictive and diagnostic models with the accuracy needed for clinical application. TRIAL REGISTRATION: The ARTISTIC trial is registered with the International Standard Randomised Controlled Trial Number ISRCTN25417821.

Assessment of sex-specific effects in a genome-wide association study of rheumatoid arthritis.

Rheumatoid arthritis (RA) is three times more common in females than in males, suggesting that sex may play a role in modifying genetic associations with disease. We have addressed this hypothesis by performing sex-differentiated and sex-interaction analyses of a genome-wide association study of RA in a North American population. Our results identify a number of novel associations that demonstrate strong evidence of association in both sexes combined, with no evidence of heterogeneity in risk between males and females. However, our analyses also highlight a number of associations with RA in males or females only. These signals may represent true sex-specific effects, or may reflect a lack of power to detect association in the smaller sample of males, and thus warrant further investigation.

A polymorphism that reduces RANTES expression is associated with protection from death in HIV-seropositive Ugandans with advanced disease.

We investigated the effect of RANTES polymorphisms on human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) disease progression in an urban population of Uganda. HIV-positive individuals homozygous for the INT1.1C polymorphism, which had been associated previously with low RANTES expression, were less likely to die than were those with other genotypes (hazard ratio, 0.53 [95% confidence interval, 0.33-0.83]; P=.007). This report of a non-human leukocyte antigen genetic association with HIV-1 and/or acquired immunodeficiency syndrome disease progression in an African population reveals a genetic effect different from that reported elsewhere for African Americans and may impact therapeutic strategies targeting the RANTES pathway in HIV infection.