Forecasting daily total pollen concentrations on a global scale.

BACKGROUND: There is evidence that global anthropogenic climate change may be impacting floral phenology and the temporal and spatial characteristics of aero-allergenic pollen. Given the extent of current and future climate uncertainty, there is a need to strengthen predictive pollen forecasts. METHODS: The study aims to use CatBoost (CB) and deep learning (DL) models for predicting the daily total pollen concentration up to 14 days in advance for 23 cities, covering all five continents. The model includes the projected environmental parameters, recent concentrations (1, 2 and 4 weeks), and the past environmental explanatory variables, and their future values. RESULTS: The best pollen forecasts include Mexico City (R2(DL_7) ≈ .7), and Santiago (R2(DL_7) ≈ .8) for the 7th forecast day, respectively; while the weakest pollen forecasts are made for Brisbane (R2(DL_7) ≈ .4) and Seoul (R2(DL_7) ≈ .1) for the 7th forecast day. The global order of the five most important environmental variables in determining the daily total pollen concentrations is, in decreasing order: the past daily total pollen concentration, future 2 m temperature, past 2 m temperature, past soil temperature in 28-100 cm depth, and past soil temperature in 0-7 cm depth. City-related clusters of the most similar distribution of feature importance values of the environmental variables only slightly change on consecutive forecast days for Caxias do Sul, Cape Town, Brisbane, and Mexico City, while they often change for Sydney, Santiago, and Busan. CONCLUSIONS: This new knowledge of the ecological relationships of the most remarkable variables importance for pollen forecast models according to clusters, cities and forecast days is important for developing and improving the accuracy of airborne pollen forecasts.

Higher airborne pollen concentrations correlated with increased SARS-CoV-2 infection rates, as evidenced from 31 countries across the globe.

Pollen exposure weakens the immunity against certain seasonal respiratory viruses by diminishing the antiviral interferon response. Here we investigate whether the same applies to the pandemic severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), which is sensitive to antiviral interferons, if infection waves coincide with high airborne pollen concentrations. Our original hypothesis was that more airborne pollen would lead to increases in infection rates. To examine this, we performed a cross-sectional and longitudinal data analysis on SARS-CoV-2 infection, airborne pollen, and meteorological factors. Our dataset is the most comprehensive, largest possible worldwide from 130 stations, across 31 countries and five continents. To explicitly investigate the effects of social contact, we additionally considered population density of each study area, as well as lockdown effects, in all possible combinations: without any lockdown, with mixed lockdown-no lockdown regime, and under complete lockdown. We found that airborne pollen, sometimes in synergy with humidity and temperature, explained, on average, 44% of the infection rate variability. Infection rates increased after higher pollen concentrations most frequently during the four previous days. Without lockdown, an increase of pollen abundance by 100 pollen/m3 resulted in a 4% average increase of infection rates. Lockdown halved infection rates under similar pollen concentrations. As there can be no preventive measures against airborne pollen exposure, we suggest wide dissemination of pollen-virus coexposure dire effect information to encourage high-risk individuals to wear particle filter masks during high springtime pollen concentrations.

Leaf characteristics of rice cultivars with a stronger yield response to projected increases in CO2 concentration.

Rising levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2 ) could, potentially, be exploited as a means to increase seed yield and maintain food security, especially for cereal grains. Although there have been multiple cultivar trials indicating that significant yield variation occurs, the basis for these differences has not been entirely elucidated. Here, we focus on two rice cultivars that differed in field trials to their yield sensitivity to elevated CO2 : Yangdao6hao (YD6), and Wuyunjing23 (W23) to assess whether observed yield differences (YD6 > W23) were associated with concurrent changes in leaf-level characteristics. At ambient levels of CO2 , leaf net photosynthesis (A) of YD6 was compatible with that of W23. However, at elevated CO2 , A was higher for YD6 relative to W23. The stability of leaf Rubisco content, biochemical characteristics (Vc,max, and Jmax ), nitrogen enzymatic activity, and chlorophyll concentration differed significantly, with greater values observed for YD6 relative to W23 at elevated CO2 . While such results are consistent with other studies, we also demonstrate that a higher ratio of carbon sinks (seed) to carbon sources (leaf), were linked to increases in cytokinins, and slower flag leaf senescence for the YD6 relative to the W23 cultivar at elevated CO2 . While additional data for a broader genetic selection are needed, the current study suggests a link between source/sink carbon assimilation, maintenance of photosynthetic biochemistry, and slower leaf senescence for rice cultivars that show a stronger yield response to projected CO2 levels. This information, in turn, may provide suitable metrics for future CO2 selection among rice cultivars.

Responses of rice qualitative characteristics to elevated carbon dioxide and higher temperature: implications for global nutrition.

BACKGROUND: Protein and some minerals of rice seed are negatively affected by projected carbon dioxide (CO2 ) levels. However, an in-depth assessment of rice quality that encompasses both CO2 and temperature for a wide range of nutritional parameters is not available. Using a free-air CO2 enrichment facility with temperature control, we conducted a field experiment with two levels of CO2 (ambient; ambient + 200 ppm) and two levels of temperature (ambient; ambient + 1.5 °C). An in-depth examination of qualitative factors indicated a variable nutritional response. RESULTS: For total protein, albumin, glutelin, and prolamin, elevated CO2 reduced seed concentrations irrespective of temperature. Similarly, several amino acids declined further as a function of higher temperature and elevated CO2 relative to elevated CO2 alone. Higher temperature increased the lipid percentage of seed; however, elevated CO2 reduced the overall lipid content. At the nutrient elements level, whereas elevated CO2 reduced certain elements, a combination of CO2 and temperature could compensate for CO2 reductions but was element dependent. CONCLUSION: Overall, these data are, at present, the most detailed analysis of rising CO2 /temperature on the qualitative characteristics of rice. They indicate that climate change is likely to significantly impact the nutritional integrity of rice, with subsequent changes in human health on a global basis. © 2020 Society of Chemical Industry.

The potential role of sucrose transport gene expression in the photosynthetic and yield response of rice cultivars to future CO2 concentration.

The metabolic basis for observed differences in the yield response of rice to projected carbon dioxide concentrations (CO2 ) is unclear. In this study, three rice cultivars, differing in their yield response to elevated CO2 , were grown under ambient and elevated CO2 conditions, using the free-air CO2 enrichment technology. Flag leaves of rice were used to determine (1) if manipulative increases in sink strength decreased the soluble sucrose concentration for the 'weak' responders and (2), whether the genetic expression of sucrose transporters OsSUT1 and OsSUT2 was associated with an accumulation of soluble sugars and the maintenance of photosynthetic capacity. For the cultivars that showed a weak response to additional CO2 , photosynthetic capacity declined under elevated CO2 and was associated with an accumulation of soluble sugars. For these cultivars, increasing sink relative to source strength did not increase photosynthesis and no change in OsSUT1 or OsSUT2 expression was observed. In contrast, the 'strong' response cultivar did not show an increase in soluble sugars or a decline in photosynthesis but demonstrated significant increases in OsSUT1 and OsSUT2 expression at elevated CO2 . Overall, these data suggest that the expression of the sucrose transport genes OsSUT1 and OsSUT2 may be associated with the maintenance of photosynthetic capacity of the flag leaf during grain fill; and, potentially, greater yield response of rice as atmospheric CO2 increases.

Increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide: Anticipated negative effects on food quality.

In a Perspective, Kristie Ebi and Lewis Ziska discuss Weyant and colleagues' accompanying study on the projected effects of atmospheric carbon dioxide on nutrition and disease.

Tolerance of subzero winter cold in kudzu (Pueraria montana var. lobata).

The use of species distribution as a climate proxy for ecological forecasting is thought to be acceptable for invasive species. Kudzu (Pueraria montana var. lobata) is an important invasive whose northern distribution appears to be limited by winter survival; however, kudzu's cold tolerance thresholds are uncertain. Here, we used biogeographic evidence to hypothesize that exposure to - 20 °C is lethal for kudzu and thus determines its northern distribution limit. We evaluated this hypothesis using survival tests and electrolyte leakage to determine relative conductivity, a measure of cell damage, on 14 populations from eastern North America. Relative conductivity above 36% was lethal. Temperatures causing this damage averaged - 19.6 °C for northern and - 14.4 °C for southern populations, indicating kudzu acclimates to winter cold. To assess this, we measured relative conductivity of above- and belowground stems, and roots collected throughout the winter at a kudzu population in southern Ontario, Canada. Consistent with acclimation, the cold tolerance threshold of aboveground stems at the coldest time of year was - 26 °C, while stems insulated from cold extremes survived to - 17 °C-colder than the survival limits indicated by kudzu's biogeographic distribution. While these results do not rule out alternative cold limitations, they indicate kudzu can survive winters north of its current distribution. For kudzu, biogeography is not a proxy for climatic tolerance and continued northward migration is possible. Efforts to limit its spread are therefore prudent. These results demonstrate that physiological constraints inform predictions of climate-related changes in species distribution and should be considered where possible.

Rising atmospheric CO2 is reducing the protein concentration of a floral pollen source essential for North American bees.

At present, there is substantive evidence that the nutritional content of agriculturally important food crops will decrease in response to rising levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide, Ca However, whether Ca-induced declines in nutritional quality are also occurring for pollinator food sources is unknown. Flowering late in the season, goldenrod (Solidago spp.) pollen is a widely available autumnal food source commonly acknowledged by apiarists to be essential to native bee (e.g. Bombus spp.) and honeybee (Apis mellifera) health and winter survival. Using floral collections obtained from the Smithsonian Natural History Museum, we quantified Ca-induced temporal changes in pollen protein concentration of Canada goldenrod (Solidago canadensis), the most wide spread Solidago taxon, from hundreds of samples collected throughout the USA and southern Canada over the period 1842-2014 (i.e. a Ca from approx. 280 to 398 ppm). In addition, we conducted a 2 year in situtrial of S. Canadensis populations grown along a continuous Ca gradient from approximately 280 to 500 ppm. The historical data indicated a strong significant correlation between recent increases in Ca and reductions in pollen protein concentration (r(2)= 0.81). Experimental data confirmed this decrease in pollen protein concentration, and indicated that it would be ongoing as Ca continues to rise in the near term, i.e. to 500 ppm (r(2)= 0.88). While additional data are needed to quantify the subsequent effects of reduced protein concentration for Canada goldenrod on bee health and population stability, these results are the first to indicate that increasing Ca can reduce protein content of a floral pollen source widely used by North American bees.

Cheatgrass is favored by warming but not CO2 enrichment in a semi-arid grassland.

Elevated CO2 and warming may alter terrestrial ecosystems by promoting invasive plants with strong community and ecosystem impacts. Invasive plant responses to elevated CO2 and warming are difficult to predict, however, because of the many mechanisms involved, including modification of phenology, physiology, and cycling of nitrogen and water. Understanding the relative and interactive importance of these processes requires multifactor experiments under realistic field conditions. Here, we test how free-air CO2 enrichment (to 600 ppmv) and infrared warming (+1.5 °C day/3 °C night) influence a functionally and phenologically distinct invasive plant in semi-arid mixed-grass prairie. Bromus tectorum (cheatgrass), a fast-growing Eurasian winter annual grass, increases fire frequency and reduces biological diversity across millions of hectares in western North America. Across 2 years, we found that warming more than tripled B. tectorum biomass and seed production, due to a combination of increased recruitment and increased growth. These results were observed with and without competition from native species, under wet and dry conditions (corresponding with tenfold differences in B. tectorum biomass), and despite the fact that warming reduced soil water. In contrast, elevated CO2 had little effect on B. tectorum invasion or soil water, while reducing soil and plant nitrogen (N). We conclude that (1) warming may expand B. tectorum's phenological niche, allowing it to more successfully colonize the extensive, invasion-resistant northern mixed-grass prairie, and (2) in ecosystems where elevated CO2 decreases N availability, CO2 may have limited effects on B. tectorum and other nitrophilic invasive species.

Evidence for divergence of response in Indica, Japonica, and wild rice to high CO2 × temperature interaction.

High CO2 and high temperature have an antagonistic interaction effect on rice yield potential and present a unique challenge to adapting rice to projected future climates. Understanding how the differences in response to these two abiotic variables are partitioned across rice germplasm accessions may be key to identifying potentially useful sources of resilient alleles for adapting rice to climate change. In this study, we evaluated eleven globally diverse rice accessions under controlled conditions at two carbon dioxide concentrations (400 and 600 ppm) and four temperature environments (29 °C day/21 °C night; 29 °C day/21 °C night with additional heat stress at anthesis; 34 °C day/26 °C night; and 34 °C day/26 °C night with additional heat stress at anthesis) for a suite of traits including five yield components, five growth characteristics, one phenological trait, and four photosynthesis-related measurements. Multivariate analyses of mean trait data from these eight treatments divide our rice panel into two primary groups consistent with the genetic classification of INDICA/INDICA-like and JAPONICA populations. Overall, we find that the productivity of plants grown under elevated [CO2 ] was more sensitive (negative response) to high temperature stress compared with that of plants grown under ambient [CO2 ] across this diversity panel. We report differential response to CO2 × temperature interaction for INDICA/INDICA-like and JAPONICA rice accessions and find preliminary evidence for the beneficial introduction of exotic alleles into cultivated rice genomic background. Overall, these results support the idea of using wild or currently unadapted gene pools in rice to enhance breeding efforts to secure future climate change adaptation.

Biochemical and molecular characteristics of leaf photosynthesis and relative seed yield of two contrasting rice cultivars in response to elevated [CO2].

Understanding the basis for intraspecific yield variability may be important in elucidating biological mechanisms that are associated with superior yield performance in response to projected increases in carbon dioxide concentration, [CO2]. Using a free-air CO2 enrichment (FACE) facility, two rice lines, S63 and W14, which differed consistently in their enhancement of seed yield when grown at elevated [CO2] in multiple field trials, were examined. To determine if the different cultivar responses were linked to changes in photosynthetic characteristics at elevated [CO2], spatial and temporal changes in photosynthetic stimulation and the occurrence of down-regulation, or acclimation, in relation to panicle sink development were quantified for the uppermost canopy leaves. Changes in photosynthetic capacity were determined by quantifying changes in the sink:source ratio, leaf nitrogen (N) content, the concentration and mRNA expression of the large Rubisco subunit, and changes in V c,max, the maximum ribulose bisphosphate (RuBP)-saturated rate of carboxylation. For the W14 cultivar, significant reductions in photosynthesis at the elevated, relative to ambient [CO2], signalling photosynthetic acclimation, were observed following panicle initiation. The observance of photosynthetic acclimation was consistent with significant reductions in N, Rubisco content and expression, and V c,max. In contrast, for the cultivar S63, elevated [CO2] resulted in increased spikelet number and grain weight, increased sink:source ratios, and continued stimulation of photosynthesis up to grain maturity. Overall, these data suggest that the greater response of the S63 line to elevated [CO2] may be associated with enhanced carbon sinks relative to sources, and the ability to maintain photosynthetic capacity during grain development.

Recent and projected changes in global climate may increase nicotine absorption and the risk of green tobacco sickness.

BACKGROUND: Dermal transfer of nicotine during tobacco harvest can cause green tobacco sickness (GTS), characterized by nausea, vomiting, headache and dizziness. Rainfall and high temperatures are etiological factors known to increase the prevalence of GTS. We analyzed recent and projected trends in these factors for major tobacco-growing regions to assess potential exacerbation in GTS occurrence. METHODS: We analyzed climate parameters, including recent trends (since the 1970s) in temperature and precipitation metrics during the tobacco harvest period for Southern Brazil; Yunnan Province, China; Andhra State, India; and North Carolina, USA. We applied Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) based scenarios for Tier 1 Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6), (SSPs of 1-2.6, 3-7.0 and 5-8.5 from 2020 to 2100). Established protocol for nicotine dermal patches and temperature were used as a proxy to estimate potential nicotine absorption. RESULTS: For three locations, cumulative maximum temperatures during harvest and temperature extremes rose significantly since the 1970s as did cumulative rainfall during harvest. Projected maximum temperatures at SSP 3-7.0 and 5-8.5 projections through 2100 did increase for all locations. Estimates of nicotine skin absorption with rising temperature show significant increases for both recent changes in three locations, and for all locations for SSP projections of 3-7.0 and 5-8.5 from 2020 to 2100. CONCLUSIONS: This study across multiple continents, highlights a potential link between recent and projected anthropogenic change and potential increases in GTS risk. Under SSP 5-8.5, nicotine absorption could increase by ~50% by the end of the century, which may have widespread impacts on the incidence of GTS, especially among younger tobacco workers.

Transfer of nicotine from tobacco leaves to the skin can result in a type of poisoning called green tobacco sickness (GTS) for field workers who harvest tobacco. Transfer is linked to temperature and rainfall, which are both impacted by global climate change. We examined recent (from 1970-present) and projected future (present to 2100) changes in these measures for four global locations where tobacco is grown. North Carolina, Brazil, China and India all show an increase in average maximum temperatures or rainfall since the 1970s. We find that recent or future changes in the climate are associated with an increased likelihood of skin absorption of nicotine. This study, across multiple continents, highlights a potential link between climate change that could increase the risk of GTS for tobacco workers.

Elevated atmospheric CO2 has small, species-specific effects on pollen chemistry and plant growth across flowering plant species.

Elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide (eCO2) can affect plant growth and physiology, which can, in turn, impact herbivorous insects, including by altering pollen or plant tissue nutrition. Previous research suggests that eCO2 can reduce pollen nutrition in some species, but it is unknown whether this effect is consistent across flowering plant species. We experimentally quantified the effects of eCO2 across multiple flowering plant species on plant growth in 9 species and pollen chemistry (%N an estimate for protein content and nutrition in 12 species; secondary chemistry in 5 species) in greenhouses. For pollen nutrition, only buckwheat significantly responded to eCO2, with %N increasing in eCO2; CO2 treatment did not affect pollen amino acid composition but altered secondary metabolites in buckwheat and sunflower. Plant growth under eCO2 exhibited two trends across species: plant height was taller in 44% of species and flower number was affected for 63% of species (3 species with fewer and 2 species with more flowers). The remaining growth metrics (leaf number, above-ground biomass, flower size, and flowering initiation) showed divergent, species-specific responses, if any. Our results indicate that future eCO2 is unlikely to uniformly change pollen chemistry or plant growth across flowering species but may have the potential to alter ecological interactions, or have particularly important effects on specialized pollinators.

Anthropogenic climate change and allergen exposure: The role of plant biology.

Accumulation of anthropogenic gases, particularly CO(2), is likely to have 2 fundamental effects on plant biology. The first is an indirect effect through Earth's increasing average surface temperatures, with subsequent effects on other aspects of climate, such as rainfall and extreme weather events. The second is a direct effect caused by CO(2)-induced stimulation of photosynthesis and plant growth. Both effects are likely to alter a number of fundamental aspects of plant biology and human health, including aerobiology and allergic diseases, respectively. This review highlights the current and projected effect of increasing CO(2) and climate change in the context of plants and allergen exposure, emphasizing direct effects on plant physiologic parameters (eg, pollen production) and indirect effects (eg, fungal sporulation) related to diverse biotic and abiotic interactions. Overall, the review assumes that future global mitigation efforts will be limited and suggests a number of key research areas that will assist in adapting to the ongoing challenges to public health associated with increased allergen exposure.

Mechanisms underlying food insecurity in the aftermath of climate-related shocks: a systematic review.

Food insecurity is prevalent, affecting 1·2 billion people globally in 2021. However, the effects of food insecurity are unequally distributed across populations and climate-related shocks threaten to exacerbate food insecurity and associated health consequences. The mechanisms underlying this exacerbation at the household level are largely unknown. We aimed to synthesise the available evidence on the mechanisms connecting extreme climate events to household-level food insecurity and highlight the research gaps that must be addressed to inform better food security and health policy. For this systematic review, a comprehensive literature search was done by a medical librarian in February, 2021 for articles about food security and climate-related shocks. Relevant publications were identified by searching the following databases with a combination of standardised index terms and keywords: MEDLINE, Embase, CINAHL, GreenFILE, Environment Complete, Web of Science Core Collection, and Global Health. Searches were limited to human studies published in English. Included studies measured food security outcomes using indicators developed by the UN Food and Agricultural Organization (ie, consumption patterns, livelihood change, malnutrition, and mortality) and explained the mechanism behind the household-level or population-level food insecurity. Purely theoretical, modelling, and review studies were excluded. Quality assessment was conducted using the appropriate Joanna Briggs Institute Critical Appraisal Tool. Data were analysed using thematic analysis of the categories of mechanism (interpreted using internationally accepted frameworks), risk and resilience factors, and author policy recommendations. We found a paucity of data with only 18 studies meeting criteria for inclusion out of 337 studies identified for full-text review. All the studies that were included in our analysis showed worse food security outcomes after climate-related shocks. Food availability was the most common mechanism cited (17 studies), although most studies addressed at least one additional mechanism (15 studies). Studies were of mixed methodologies with nuanced discussions of risk and resilience factors, and of policy recommendations. This systematic review shows that there is an incomplete assessment of food security at the household and community level after climate-related shocks in the literature and finds that food availability is the primary mechanism studied. The low number of studies on this topic limits subgroup analysis and generalisability; however, the good quality of the studies allows for important policy recommendations around improving resilience to climate shocks and suggestions for future research including the need for a more granular understanding of mechanisms and feasible adaptation solutions.

A temporally and spatially explicit, data-driven estimation of airborne ragweed pollen concentrations across Europe.

Ongoing and future climate change driven expansion of aeroallergen-producing plant species comprise a major human health problem across Europe and elsewhere. There is an urgent need to produce accurate, temporally dynamic maps at the continental level, especially in the context of climate uncertainty. This study aimed to restore missing daily ragweed pollen data sets for Europe, to produce phenological maps of ragweed pollen, resulting in the most complete and detailed high-resolution ragweed pollen concentration maps to date. To achieve this, we have developed two statistical procedures, a Gaussian method (GM) and deep learning (DL) for restoring missing daily ragweed pollen data sets, based on the plant's reproductive and growth (phenological, pollen production and frost-related) characteristics. DL model performances were consistently better for estimating seasonal pollen integrals than those of the GM approach. These are the first published modelled maps using altitude correction and flowering phenology to recover missing pollen information. We created a web page (http://euragweedpollen.gmf.u-szeged.hu/), including daily ragweed pollen concentration data sets of the stations examined and their restored daily data, allowing one to upload newly measured or recovered daily data. Generation of these maps provides a means to track pollen impacts in the context of climatic shifts, identify geographical regions with high pollen exposure, determine areas of future vulnerability, apply spatially-explicit mitigation measures and prioritize management interventions.

Food security and climate change: on the potential to adapt global crop production by active selection to rising atmospheric carbon dioxide.

Agricultural production is under increasing pressure by global anthropogenic changes, including rising population, diversion of cereals to biofuels, increased protein demands and climatic extremes. Because of the immediate and dynamic nature of these changes, adaptation measures are urgently needed to ensure both the stability and continued increase of the global food supply. Although potential adaption options often consider regional or sectoral variations of existing risk management (e.g. earlier planting dates, choice of crop), there may be a global-centric strategy for increasing productivity. In spite of the recognition that atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO(2)) is an essential plant resource that has increased globally by approximately 25 per cent since 1959, efforts to increase the biological conversion of atmospheric CO(2) to stimulate seed yield through crop selection is not generally recognized as an effective adaptation measure. In this review, we challenge that viewpoint through an assessment of existing studies on CO(2) and intraspecific variability to illustrate the potential biological basis for differential plant response among crop lines and demonstrate that while technical hurdles remain, active selection and breeding for CO(2) responsiveness among cereal varieties may provide one of the simplest and direct strategies for increasing global yields and maintaining food security with anthropogenic change.

Rising Carbon Dioxide and Global Nutrition: Evidence and Action Needed.

While the role of CO2 as a greenhouse gas in the context of global warming is widely acknowledged, additional data from multiple sources is demonstrating that rising CO2 of and by itself will have a tremendous effect on plant biology. This effect is widely recognized for its role in stimulating photosynthesis and growth for multiple plant species, including crops. However, CO2 is also likely to alter plant chemistry in ways that will denigrate plant nutrition. That role is also of tremendous importance, not only from a human health viewpoint, but also from a global food-web perspective. Here, the goal is to review the current evidence, propose potential mechanistic explanations, provide an overview of critical unknowns and to elucidate a series of next steps that can address what is, overall, a critical but unappreciated aspect of anthropogenic climate change.

Accelerated sea-level rise is suppressing CO2 stimulation of tidal marsh productivity: A 33-year study.

Accelerating relative sea-level rise (RSLR) is threatening coastal wetlands. However, rising CO2 concentrations may also stimulate carbon sequestration and vertical accretion, counterbalancing RSLR. A coastal wetland dominated by a C3 plant species was exposed to ambient and elevated levels of CO2 in situ from 1987 to 2019 during which time ambient CO2 concentration increased 18% and sea level rose 23 cm. Plant production did not increase in response to gradually rising ambient CO2 concentration during this period. Elevated CO2 increased shoot production relative to ambient CO2 for the first two decades, but from 2005 to 2019, elevated CO2 stimulation of production was diminished. The decline coincided with increases in relative sea level above a threshold that hindered root productivity. While elevated CO2 stimulation of elevation gain has the potential to moderate the negative impacts of RSLR on tidal wetland productivity, benefits for coastal wetland resilience will diminish in the long term as rates of RSLR accelerate.

Crop Adaptation: Weedy and Crop Wild Relatives as an Untapped Resource to Utilize Recent Increases in Atmospheric CO2.

Adaptation measures are necessary to ensure the stability and performance of the food supply relative to anthropogenic climate change. Although a wide range of measures have been proposed (e.g., planting dates, crop choices, drought resistance), there may be a ubiquitous means to increase productivity relatively quickly. Numerous studies have shown that the projected increase in atmospheric CO2 can stimulate crop growth and seed yield with noted intra-specific differences within crop cultivars, suggesting potential differences to CO2 that could be exploited to enhance seed yield in the future. However, it is worth emphasizing that atmospheric CO2 has already risen substantially (≈27% since 1970) and that, at present, no active effort by breeders has been made to select for the CO2 increase that has already occurred. In contrast, for weedy or crop wild relatives (CWR), there are indications of evolutionary adaptation to these recent increases. While additional steps are needed, the identification and introgression of these CO2-sensitive traits into modern crop cultivars may be a simple and direct means to increase crop growth and seed yield.