Earthquake triggering and large-scale geologic storage of carbon dioxide.

Despite its enormous cost, large-scale carbon capture and storage (CCS) is considered a viable strategy for significantly reducing CO(2) emissions associated with coal-based electrical power generation and other industrial sources of CO(2) [Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2005) IPCC Special Report on Carbon Dioxide Capture and Storage. Prepared by Working Group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, eds Metz B, et al. (Cambridge Univ Press, Cambridge, UK); Szulczewski ML, et al. (2012) Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 109:5185-5189]. We argue here that there is a high probability that earthquakes will be triggered by injection of large volumes of CO(2) into the brittle rocks commonly found in continental interiors. Because even small- to moderate-sized earthquakes threaten the seal integrity of CO(2) repositories, in this context, large-scale CCS is a risky, and likely unsuccessful, strategy for significantly reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

Multiscale variations of the crustal stress field throughout North America.

The Earth's crustal stress field controls active deformation and reflects the processes driving plate tectonics. Here we present the first quantitative synthesis of relative principal stress magnitudes throughout North America together with hundreds of new horizontal stress orientations, revealing coherent stress fields at various scales. A continent-scale transition from compression (strike-slip and/or reverse faulting) in eastern North America to strike-slip faulting in the mid-continent to predominantly extension in western intraplate North America is likely due (at least in part) to drag at the base of the lithosphere. Published geodynamic models, incorporating gravitational potential energy and tractions from plate motions or relative mantle flow, successfully predict most large-wavelength stress rotations but not the shorter-wavelength (<~200 km) rotations observed in the western USA. The stresses resulting from glacial isostatic adjustment appear to be much smaller than the magnitude of ambient tectonic stresses in the crust at depth.

Physics-based forecasting of man-made earthquake hazards in Oklahoma and Kansas.

Reinjection of saltwater, co-produced with oil, triggered thousands of widely felt and several damaging earthquakes in Oklahoma and Kansas. The future seismic hazard remains uncertain. Here, we present a new methodology to forecast the probability of damaging induced earthquakes in space and time. In our hybrid physical-statistical model, seismicity is driven by the rate of injection-induced pressure increases at any given location and spatial variations in the number and stress state of preexisting basement faults affected by the pressure increase. If current injection practices continue, earthquake hazards are expected to decrease slowly. Approximately 190, 130 and 100 widely felt M ≥ 3 earthquakes are anticipated in 2018, 2019 and 2020, respectively, with corresponding probabilities of potentially damaging M ≥ 5 earthquakes of 32, 24 and 19%. We identify areas where produced-water injection is more likely to cause seismicity. Our methodology can be used to evaluate future injection scenarios intended to mitigate seismic hazards.

Did earthquakes keep the early crust habitable?

The shallow habitable region of cratonal crust deforms with a strain rate on the order of approximately 10(19) s(1). This is rapid enough that small seismic events are expected on one-kilometer spatial scales and one-million-year timescales. Rock faulting has the potential to release batches of biological substrate, such as dissolved H(2), permitting transient blooms. In addition, the steady-state deformation of the brittle crust causes numerous small faults to be permeable enough (on the order of approximately 10(15) m(2)) for water to flow on a kilometer scale over relatively short geological times ( approximately 10(5) yr). Hence, active faults act as concentrated niches capable of episodically tapping resources in the bulk volume of the rock. Radiolysis and ferrous iron are potentially bases of sustainable hard-rock niches.

Response to Comment on "How will induced seismicity in Oklahoma respond to decreased saltwater injection rates?"

Goebel et al. question our forecasted response of induced seismicity to reduction of saltwater injection rates in north-central Oklahoma and raise the concern that "the probability of future damaging earthquakes may be underestimated." We compare our prediction to earthquake data recorded in the 8 months after publication. Observed seismicity rates and magnitudes agree with the forecast of our model. Our use of a probabilistic model accounts for uncertainties and observed M ≥ 4.5 to date confirm the conservative nature of our prediction. The "realistic parameter range" suggested by Goebel et al. is based on a misunderstanding of our statistical model and disagrees with the long-term decay of seismicity in the region.

How will induced seismicity in Oklahoma respond to decreased saltwater injection rates?

In response to the marked number of injection-induced earthquakes in north-central Oklahoma, regulators recently called for a 40% reduction in the volume of saltwater being injected in the seismically active areas. We present a calibrated statistical model that predicts that widely felt M ≥ 3 earthquakes in the affected areas, as well as the probability of potentially damaging larger events, should significantly decrease by the end of 2016 and approach historic levels within a few years. Aftershock sequences associated with relatively large magnitude earthquakes that occurred in the Fairview, Cherokee, and Pawnee areas in north-central Oklahoma in late 2015 and 2016 will delay the rate of seismicity decrease in those areas.

Effects of rock mineralogy and pore structure on stress-dependent permeability of shale samples.

We conducted pulse-decay permeability experiments on Utica and Permian shale samples to investigate the effect of rock mineralogy and pore structure on the transport mechanisms using a non-adsorbing gas (argon). The mineralogy of the shale samples varied from clay rich to calcite rich (i.e. clay poor). Our permeability measurements and scanning electron microscopy images revealed that the permeability of the shale samples whose pores resided in the kerogen positively correlated with organic content. Our results showed that the absolute value of permeability was not affected by the mineral composition of the shale samples. Additionally, our results indicated that clay content played a significant role in the stress-dependent permeability. For clay-rich samples, we observed higher pore throat compressibility, which led to higher permeability reduction at increasing effective stress than with calcite-rich samples. Our findings highlight the importance of considering permeability to be stress dependent to achieve more accurate reservoir simulations especially for clay-rich shale reservoirs.This article is part of the themed issue 'Energy and the subsurface'.

Oklahoma's recent earthquakes and saltwater disposal.

Over the past 5 years, parts of Oklahoma have experienced marked increases in the number of small- to moderate-sized earthquakes. In three study areas that encompass the vast majority of the recent seismicity, we show that the increases in seismicity follow 5- to 10-fold increases in the rates of saltwater disposal. Adjacent areas where there has been relatively little saltwater disposal have had comparatively few recent earthquakes. In the areas of seismic activity, the saltwater disposal principally comes from "produced" water, saline pore water that is coproduced with oil and then injected into deeper sedimentary formations. These formations appear to be in hydraulic communication with potentially active faults in crystalline basement, where nearly all the earthquakes are occurring. Although most of the recent earthquakes have posed little danger to the public, the possibility of triggering damaging earthquakes on potentially active basement faults cannot be discounted.