Hierarchical Bayesian Approach To Reduce Uncertainty in the Aquatic Effect Assessment of Realistic Chemical Mixtures.

Species in the aquatic environment differ in their toxicological sensitivity to the various chemicals they encounter. In aquatic risk assessment, this interspecies variation is often quantified via species sensitivity distributions. Because the information available for the characterization of these distributions is typically limited, optimal use of information is essential to reduce uncertainty involved in the assessment. In the present study, we show that the credibility intervals on the estimated potentially affected fraction of species after exposure to a mixture of chemicals at environmentally relevant surface water concentrations can be extremely wide if a classical approach is followed, in which each chemical in the mixture is considered in isolation. As an alternative, we propose a hierarchical Bayesian approach, in which knowledge on the toxicity of chemicals other than those assessed is incorporated. A case study with a mixture of 13 pharmaceuticals demonstrates that this hierarchical approach results in more realistic estimations of the potentially affected fraction, as a result of reduced uncertainty in species sensitivity distributions for data-poor chemicals.

Definition and applications of a versatile chemical pollution footprint methodology.

Because of the great variety in behavior and modes of action of chemicals, impact assessment of multiple substances is complex, as is the communication of its results. Given calls for cumulative impact assessments, we developed a methodology that is aimed at expressing the expected cumulative impacts of mixtures of chemicals on aquatic ecosystems for a region and subsequently allows to present these results as a chemical pollution footprint, in short: a chemical footprint. Setting and using a boundary for chemical pollution is part of the methodology. Two case studies were executed to test and illustrate the methodology. The first case illustrates that the production and use of organic substances in Europe, judged with the European water volume, stays within the currently set policy boundaries for chemical pollution. The second case shows that the use of pesticides in Northwestern Europe, judged with the regional water volume, has exceeded the set boundaries, while showing a declining trend over time. The impact of mixtures of substances in the environment could be expressed as a chemical footprint, and the relative contribution of substances to that footprint could be evaluated. These features are a novel type of information to support risk management, by helping prioritization of management among chemicals and environmental compartments.

Multimedia modeling of engineered nanoparticles with SimpleBox4nano: model definition and evaluation.

Screening level models for environmental assessment of engineered nanoparticles (ENP) are not generally available. Here, we present SimpleBox4Nano (SB4N) as the first model of this type, assess its validity, and evaluate it by comparisons with a known material flow model. SB4N expresses ENP transport and concentrations in and across air, rain, surface waters, soil, and sediment, accounting for nanospecific processes such as aggregation, attachment, and dissolution. The model solves simultaneous mass balance equations (MBE) using simple matrix algebra. The MBEs link all concentrations and transfer processes using first-order rate constants for all processes known to be relevant for ENPs. The first-order rate constants are obtained from the literature. The output of SB4N is mass concentrations of ENPs as free dispersive species, heteroaggregates with natural colloids, and larger natural particles in each compartment in time and at steady state. Known scenario studies for Switzerland were used to demonstrate the impact of the transport processes included in SB4N on the prediction of environmental concentrations. We argue that SB4N-predicted environmental concentrations are useful as background concentrations in environmental risk assessment.

Considerations on the EU definition of a nanomaterial: science to support policy making.

In recent years, an increasing number of applications and products containing or using nanomaterials have become available. This has raised concerns that some of these materials may introduce new risks for humans or the environment. A clear definition to discriminate nanomaterials from other materials is prerequisite to include provisions for nanomaterials in legislation. In October 2011 the European Commission published the 'Recommendation on the definition of a nanomaterial', primarily intended to provide unambiguous criteria to identify materials for which special regulatory provisions might apply, but also to promote consistency on the interpretation of the term 'nanomaterial'. In this paper, the current status of various regulatory frameworks of the European Union with regard to nanomaterials is described, and major issues relevant for regulation of nanomaterials are discussed. This will contribute to better understanding the implications of the choices policy makers have to make in further regulation of nanomaterials. Potential issues that need to be addressed and areas of research in which science can contribute are indicated. These issues include awareness on situations in which nano-related risks may occur for materials that fall outside the definition, guidance and further development of measurement techniques, and dealing with changes during the life cycle.

Simulating behavior of petroleum compounds during refinery effluent treatment using the SimpleTreat model.

Distribution and elimination of petroleum products can be predicted in aerobic wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) using models such as multimedia fate model SimpleTreat. An advantage of the SimpleTreat model is that it only requires a few basic properties of a chemical in wastewater to calculate partitioning, biodegradation and ultimately emissions to air, surface water and produced sludge. The SimpleTreat model structure reflects a WWTP scheme. However, refinery WWTPs typically incorporate more advanced treatment processes such as dissolved air flotation (DAF), a process that clarifies wastewaters by the removal of suspended matter such as oil or solids. The objective of this work was to develop a WWTP removal model that includes DAF treatment. To understand how including a DAF in the model affects the predicted concentrations of petroleum constituents in effluent, we replaced the primary sedimentation module in SimpleTreat with a module simulating DAF. Subsequently, we compared results from the WWTP-DAF model with results obtained with the original SimpleTreat model for a library of over 1500 representative hydrocarbon constituents. The increased air-water exchange in a WWTP-DAF unit resulted in higher predicted removal of volatile constituents. Predicted removal with DAF was on average 17% larger than removal with primary sedimentation. We compared modelled results with measured removal data from the literature, which supported that this model refinement continues to improve the technical basis of assessment of petroleum products.

Screening-Level Estimates of Environmental Release Rates, Predicted Exposures, and Toxic Pressures of Currently Used Chemicals.

We describe a procedure to quantify emissions of chemicals for environmental protection, assessment, and management purposes. The procedure uses production and use volumes from registration dossiers and combines these with Specific Environmental Release Category data. The procedure was applied in a case study. Emission estimations were made for chemicals registered under the European Union chemicals regulations for industrial chemicals (Registration, Evaluation, Authorisation and Restriction of Chemicals [REACH]) and for the active ingredients of medicines and crop protection products. Emissions themselves cannot be validated. Instead, emission estimates were followed by multimedia fate modeling and mixture toxic pressure modeling to arrive at predicted environmental concentrations (PECs) and toxic pressures for a typical European water body at steady state, which were compared with other such data. The results show that screening-level assessments could be performed, and yielded estimates of emissions, PECs, and mixture toxic pressures of chemicals used in Europe. Steady-state PECs agreed fairly well with measured concentrations. The mixture toxic pressure at steady state suggests the presence of effects in aquatic species assemblages, whereby few compounds dominate the predicted impact. The study shows that our screening-level emission estimation procedure is sufficiently accurate and precise to serve as a basis for assessment of chemical pollution in aquatic ecosystems at the scale of river catchments. Given a recognized societal need to develop methods for realistic, cumulative exposures, the emission assessment procedure can assist in the prioritization of chemicals in safety policies (such as the European Union REACH regulation), where "possibility to be used safely" needs to be demonstrated, and environmental quality policies (such as the European Union Water Framework Directive), where "good environmental quality" needs to be reached. Environ Toxicol Chem 2020;39:1839-1851. © 2020 The Authors. Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of SETAC.

Chemical fate of persistent organic pollutants in the arctic: Evaluation of simplebox.

Persistent organic pollutants (POPs) are of great concern for decades due to their persistence, bioaccumulation and long-range transport potential. Multimedia fate models are useful scientific and decision-support tools for predicting the chemical fate in the environment. The SimpleBox multimedia fate model (v4.0) was used in this study to estimate the impact of POP emissions from the European and North American mainland on POP contamination in the Arctic. The purpose of the study was to evaluate the performance of SimpleBox by comparing estimations to measurements. Model performance for the air compartment was reasonable as estimated concentrations were generally within a factor of five of measured concentrations. SimpleBox suggested higher POP concentrations in Arctic oceans than in temperate oceans, contrary to the few measured data. Discrepancies between estimations and measurements may be attributed to the variability in emission estimates and degradation rates of POPs, representativeness of monitoring data, and a missing snow and ice environmental compartment in SimpleBox. Emission rates and degradation rate constants were the most influential input parameters in SimpleBox based on sensitivity analysis. Suggestions for improvements of SimpleBox refining POP risk assessment are provided.

Chemical pollution imposes limitations to the ecological status of European surface waters.

Aquatic ecosystems are affected by man-made pressures, often causing combined impacts. The analysis of the impacts of chemical pollution is however commonly separate from that of other pressures and their impacts. This evolved from differences in the data available for applied ecology vis-à-vis applied ecotoxicology, which are field gradients and laboratory toxicity tests, respectively. With this study, we demonstrate that the current approach of chemical impact assessment, consisting of comparing measured concentrations to protective environmental quality standards for individual chemicals, is not optimal. In reply, and preparing for a method that would enable the comprehensive assessment and management of water quality pressures, we evaluate various quantitative chemical pollution pressure metrics for mixtures of chemicals in a case study with 24 priority substances of Europe-wide concern. We demonstrate why current methods are sub-optimal for water quality management prioritization and that chemical pollution currently imposes limitations to the ecological status of European surface waters. We discuss why management efforts may currently fail to restore a good ecological status, given that to date only 0.2% of the compounds in trade are considered in European water quality assessment and management.

Computational material flow analysis for thousands of chemicals of emerging concern in European waters.

Knowledge of exposure to a wide range of chemicals, and the spatio-temporal variability thereof, is urgently needed in the context of protecting and restoring aquatic ecosystems. This paper discusses a computational material flow analysis to predict the occurrence of thousands of man-made organic chemicals on a European scale, based on a novel temporally and spatially resolved modelling framework. The goal was to increase understanding of pressures by emerging chemicals and to complement surface water monitoring data. The ambition was to provide a first step towards a "real-life" mixture exposure situation accounting for as many chemicals as possible. Comparison of simulated concentrations and chemical monitoring data for 226 substance/basin combinations showed that the simulated concentrations were accurate on average. For 65% and 90% of substance/basin combinations the error was within one and two orders of magnitude respectively. An analysis of the relative importance of uncertainties revealed that inaccuracies in use volume or use type information contributed most to the error for individual substances. To resolve this, we suggest better registration of use types of industrial chemicals, investigation of presence/absence of industrial chemicals in wastewater and runoff samples and more scientific information exchange.

Substance or space? The relative importance of substance properties and environmental characteristics in modeling the fate of chemicals in Europe.

The relative influence of substance properties and of environmental characteristics on the variation in the environmental fate of chemicals was studied systematically and comprehensively. This was done by modeling environmental concentrations for 200 sets of substance properties, representative of organic chemicals used, and 137 sets of environmental characteristics, representative of regions in Europe of 250 x 250 km. Since it was expected that the model scale has an influence on the predicted concentration variations, the calculations were repeated for regions with a 100 x 100 km and 50 x 50 km area. Stepwise multiple regression analysis was performed to determine the contribution of each of the individual input parameters on the total concentration variation. Depending on the scenario, the range in predicted environmental concentrations spreads from two up to nine orders of magnitude. In accord with earlier studies, variation in the fate of chemicals in the environment appeared to depend mainly on substance-specific partition coefficients and degradation rates. For the estimation of soil and water concentrations with direct emissions to these compartments, however, the influence of spatial variation in environmental characteristics can mount up to two orders of magnitude, a range that can be significant to account for in certain model applications. Concentration differences in water and soil are predicted to be larger if a smaller region is applied in the model calculations, and the relative influence of environmental characteristics on the total variation increases on a more detailed spatial scale. It is argued that the influence of environmental characteristics as predictors of exposure concentrations of chemicals deserves better attention in comparative risk assessment with conventional nonspatial multimedia box models.

The use of mechanisms and modes of toxic action in integrated testing strategies: the report and recommendations of a workshop held as part of the European Union OSIRIS Integrated Project.

This report on The Potential of Mode of Action (MoA) Information Derived from Non-testing and Screening Methodologies to Support Informed Hazard Assessment, resulted from a workshop organised within OSIRIS (Optimised Strategies for Risk Assessment of Industrial Chemicals through Integration of Non-test and Test Information), a project partly funded by the EU Commission within the Sixth Framework Programme. The workshop was held in Liverpool, UK, on 30 October 2008, with 35 attendees. The goal of the OSIRIS project is to develop integrated testing strategies (ITS) fit for use in the REACH system, that would enable a significant increase in the use of non-testing information for regulatory decision making, and thus minimise the need for animal testing. One way to improve the evaluation of chemicals may be through categorisation by way of mechanisms or modes of toxic action. Defining such groups can enhance read-across possibilities and priority settings for certain toxic modes or chemical structures responsible for these toxic modes. Overall, this may result in a reduction of in vivo testing on organisms, through combining available data on mode of action and a focus on the potentially most-toxic groups. In this report, the possibilities of a mechanistic approach to assist in and guide ITS are explored, and the differences between human health and environmental areas are summarised.

QSAR-Based Estimation of Species Sensitivity Distribution Parameters: An Exploratory Investigation.

Ecological risk assessments are hampered by limited availability of ecotoxicity data. The present study aimed to explore the possibility of deriving species sensitivity distribution (SSD) parameters for nontested compounds, based on simple physicochemical characteristics, known SSDs for data-rich compounds, and a quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR)-type approach. The median toxicity of a data-poor chemical for species assemblages significantly varies with values of the physicochemical descriptors, especially when based on high-quality SSD data (from either acute median effect concentrations or chronic no-observed-effect concentrations). Beyond exploratory uses, we discuss how the precision of QSAR-based SSDs can be improved to construct models that accurately predict the SSD parameters of data-poor chemicals. The current models show that the concept of QSAR-based SSDs supports screening-level evaluations of the potential ecotoxicity of compounds for which data are lacking. Environ Toxicol Chem 2019;38:2764-2770. © 2019 The Authors. Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of SETAC.

Species sensitivity distributions for use in environmental protection, assessment, and management of aquatic ecosystems for 12 386 chemicals.

The present study considers the collection and use of ecotoxicity data for risk assessment with species sensitivity distributions (SSDs) of chemical pollution in surface water, which are used to quantify the likelihood that critical effect levels are exceeded. This fits the European Water Framework Directive, which suggests using models to assess the likelihood that chemicals affect water quality for management prioritization. We derived SSDs based on chronic and acute ecotoxicity test data for 12 386 compounds. The log-normal SSDs are characterized by the median and the standard deviation of log-transformed ecotoxicity data and by a quality score. A case study illustrates the utility of SSDs for water quality assessment and management prioritization. We quantified the chronic and acute mixture toxic pressure of mixture exposures for >22 000 water bodies in Europe for 1760 chemicals for which we had both exposure and hazard data. The results show the likelihood of mixture exposures exceeding a negligible effect level and increasing species loss. The SSDs in the present study represent a versatile and comprehensive approach to prevent, assess, and manage chemical pollution problems. Environ Toxicol Chem 2019;38:905-917. © 2019 SETAC.

Model and input uncertainty in multi-media fate modeling: benzo[a]pyrene concentrations in Europe.

This paper evaluates the contribution of (i) uncertainty in substance properties, (ii) lack of spatial variability, (iii) intermodel differences and (iv) neglecting sorption to black carbon (BC) to the uncertainty of Benzo[a]pyrene (BaP) concentrations in European air, soil and fresh water predicted by the multi-media fate model Simplebox. Uncertainty in substance properties was quantified using probabilistic modeling. The influence of spatial variability was quantified by estimating variation in predicted concentrations with three spatially explicit fate models (Impact 2002, EVn BETR and BETR Global). Intermodel differences were quantified by comparing concentration estimates of Simplebox, Impact 2002, EVn BETR and the European part of BETR Global. Finally, predictions of a BC-inclusive version of Simplebox were compared with predictions of a BC-exclusive version. For air concentrations of BaP, the lack of spatial variability in emissions was most influential. For freshwater concentrations of BaP, intermodel differences and lack of spatial variability in dimensions of fresh water bodies were the dominant sources of uncertainty. For soil, all sources of uncertainty were of comparable magnitude. Our results indicate that uncertainty in Simplebox can be as large as three orders of magnitude for BaP concentrations in the environment and would be substantially underestimated by focusing on one source of uncertainty only.

Aquatic ecotoxicity tests of some nanomaterials.

Nanoparticles of TiO2, ZrO2, AL2O3, CeO2, fullerene (C60), single-walled carbon nanotubes, and polymethylmethacrylate were tested for ecotoxic effects using one or more ecotoxicity endpoints: Microtox (bacteria), pulse-amplitude modulation (algae), Chydotox (crustaceans), and Biolog (soil enzymes). No appreciable effects were observed at nominal concentrations of up to 100 mg/L. Dilution of nanoparticle suspensions, either in ultrapure (Milli-Q) water or in natural (pond) water, led to formation of larger particles, which settled easily. (Nano)particles in water were characterized by means of atomic force microscopy, energy-dispersive x-ray analysis, inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometry, flow cytometry, and spectrophotometry. It is concluded that the absence of ecotoxicity is the result of low concentrations of free nanoparticles in the tests, and it is suggested that colloid (in)stability is of primary importance in explaining ecotoxic effects of nanoparticles in the natural environment.

Modeling the environmental fate of perfluorooctanoate and its precursors from global fluorotelomer acrylate polymer use.

The environment contains various direct and indirect sources of perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA). The present study uses a dynamic multispecies environmental fate model to analyze the potential formation of perfluorooctanoate (PFO), the anion of PFOA, in the environment from fluorotelomer acrylate polymer (FTacrylate) emitted to landfills and wastewater, residual fluorotelomer alcohol (8:2 FTOH) in FTacrylate, and residual PFOA in FTacrylate. A multispecies version of the SimpleBox model, which is capable of determining the fate of a chemical and its degradation products, was developed for this purpose. An uncertainty analysis on the chemical-specific input parameters was performed to examine for uncertainty in modeled concentrations. In 2005, residual 8:2 FTOH made up 80% of the total contribution of FTacrylate use to PFO concentrations in global oceans, and residual PFOA in FTacrylate contributed 15% to PFO concentrations from FTacrylate use in global oceans. After hundreds of years, however, the main source of PFO from total historical FTacrylate production is predicted to be FTacrylate degrading in soil following land application of sludge from sewage treatment plants, followed by FTacrylate still present in landfills. Uncertainty in modeled PFO concentrations was up to a factor of 3.3. Current FTacrylate use contributes less than 1% of the PFO in seawater, but because direct PFOA emission sources are reduced and PFOA continues to be formed from FTacrylate in soil and in landfills, this fraction grows over time.

Ranking of agricultural pesticides in the Rhine-Meuse-Scheldt basin based on toxic pressure in marine ecosystems.

Although risk assessments on a per-chemical basis are required during the registration procedure of pesticides, cumulative risks from the use of all pesticides on the variety of crops in a catchment area of a river are not assessed. The present study aimed to rank pesticides used in outdoor agricultural practice within the catchment of the rivers Rhine, Meuse, and Scheldt according to their potential toxic impact on the North Sea coastal ecosystem. Toxic pressure calculations (based on steady-state concentrations calculated with a multimedia fate model) and species-sensitivity distribution-based risk estimations were performed for pesticide emissions in the years 1998 (189 pesticides) and 2004 (133 pesticides). A ranking was established according to the relative contribution of single pesticides and crop types to the overall toxic pressure. Calculations were performed probabilistically to deal with parameter uncertainties. Only a few pesticides and crop types dominate overall toxic pressure because of emissions in both years, and the uncertainty appears to be caused largely by uncertainties in interspecies variances of aquatic toxicities. For 1998, these pesticides were fentin-acetate, with a median relative contribution (RCx) to the toxic pressure of multiple chemicals on an ecosystem of 0.43. For 2004, the pesticides that contributed most were pencycuron and paraquat-dichloride, with a median RCx, of 4.4 x 10(-2) and 3.9 x 10(-2), respectively. Pesticides applied to potato cropland and fruit trees contributed most to the overall toxic pressure.