RESUMO
Background Recent mammography-based risk models can estimate short-term or long-term breast cancer risk, but whether risk assessment may improve by combining these models has not been evaluated. Purpose To determine whether breast cancer risk assessment improves when combining a diagnostic artificial intelligence (AI) system for lesion detection and a mammographic texture model. Materials and Methods This retrospective study included Danish women consecutively screened for breast cancer at mammography from November 2012 to December 2015 who had at least 5 years of follow-up data. Examinations were evaluated for short-term risk using a commercially available diagnostic AI system for lesion detection, which produced a score to indicate the probability of cancer. A mammographic texture model, trained on a separate data set, assessed textures associated with long-term cancer risk. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) analysis was used to evaluate both the individual and combined performance of the AI and texture models for the prediction of future cancers in women with a negative screening mammogram, including those with interval cancers diagnosed within 2 years of screening and long-term cancers diagnosed 2 years or more after screening. AUCs were compared using the DeLong test. Results The Danish screening cohort included 119 650 women (median age, 59 years [IQR, 53-64 years]), of whom 320 developed interval cancers and 1401 developed long-term cancers. The combination model achieved a higher AUC for interval and long-term cancers grouped together than either the diagnostic AI (AUC, 0.73 vs 0.70; P < .001) or the texture risk (AUC, 0.73 vs 0.66; P < .001) models. The 10% of women with the highest combined risk identified by the combination model accounted for 44.1% (141 of 320) of interval cancers and 33.7% (472 of 1401) of long-term cancers. Conclusion Combining a diagnostic AI system and mammographic texture model resulted in improved risk assessment for interval cancers and long-term cancers and enabled identification of women at high risk. © RSNA, 2023 Supplemental material is available for this article. See also the editorial by Poynton and Slanetz in this issue.