How to build disaster-resilient cities and societies for making people happy.

The current disaster approaches and strategies have failed. Our society is also vulnerable to COVID-19 pandemics and natural disasters. This paper surveys the conventional disaster governance regimes and examines whether a sustainable and resilient society against natural and human-induced disasters can be built. This paper aims to shed light on resilient city and country building from the perspective of disaster prevention. Current disaster strategies must be updated in order to mitigate the cost of disaster events and to make people happy. This paper quantifies the scores of the COVID-19 policies for strengthening disaster prevention technology.

Provider-Referred Versus Self-Referred Emergency Department Visit After Urgent Care Center Visit.

BACKGROUND: Urgent care centers (UCCs) provide an alternative to emergency departments (EDs) for low-acuity acute care, as they are convenient with shorter wait time, but little is known about the quality of care at UCCs. OBJECTIVE: We described and determined the differences in characteristics of patients who were sent to the ED by UCC physicians (provider-referred) with those of patients who went to the ED on their own (self-referred) within 72 h of discharge after a UCC visit. Our primary objective was to investigate whether observation unit use or hospital admission rates were different between the two groups. Our secondary objective was to identify whether their follow-up ED visits were avoidable. METHODS: We conducted this prospective cohort study between March 22, 2017 and September 30, 2018 in a closed health system. A total of 53,178 UCC visits resulted in 582 provider-referred and 263 self-referred ED visits. We compared the characteristics of the two groups and measured the outcomes of observation unit or hospital admissions. RESULTS: Patients with self-referred ED visits were younger; mean (standard deviation) age was 47.9 (24.5) years. Provider-referred patients appeared to be significantly associated with observation unit or hospital admission (odds ratio [OR] 1.75; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.24-2.46). Among the predictors for observation unit or hospital admission, consultation with a specialist in the ED was the strongest (adjusted OR 9.09; 95% CI 6.24-13.24); other significant predictors were Medicaid or no insurance. CONCLUSIONS: We found that after an urgent care visit, patients who were sent to the ED by a UCC provider were not more likely than self-referred patients to be admitted to an observation unit or hospital from the ED. Significant predictors for observation unit or hospital admission after UCC discharge were specialist consultation and type of insurance.

Safety and feasibility of prolonged versus early laparoscopic cholecystectomy for acute cholecystitis: a single-center retrospective study.

BACKGROUND: Laparoscopic cholecystectomy (LC) is the standard treatment for acute cholecystitis (AC), and it should be performed within 72 h of symptoms onset if possible. In many undesired situations, LC was performed beyond the golden 72 h. However, the safety and feasibility of prolonged LC (i.e., performed more than 72 h after symptoms onset) are largely unknown, and therefore were investigated in this study. METHODS: We retrospectively enrolled the adult patients who were diagnosed as AC and were treated with LC at the same admission between January 2015 and October 2018 in an emergency department of a tertiary academic medical center in China. The primary outcome was the rate and severity of adverse events, while the secondary outcomes were length of hospital stay and costs. RESULTS: Among the 104 qualified patients, 70 (67.3%) underwent prolonged LC and 34 (32.7%) underwent early LC (< 72 h of symptom onset). There were no differences between the two groups in mortality rate (none for both), conversion rates (prolonged LC 5.4%, and early LC 8.8%, P = 0.68), intraoperative and postoperative complications (prolonged LC 5.7% and early LC 2.9%, P ≥ 0.99), operation time (prolonged LC 193.5 min and early LC 198.0 min, P = 0.81), and operation costs (prolonged LC 8,700 Yuan, and early LC 8,500 Yuan, P = 0.86). However, the prolonged LC was associated with longer postoperative hospitalization (7.0 days versus 6.0 days, P = 0.03), longer total hospital stay (11.0 days versus 8.0 days, P < 0.01), and subsequently higher total costs (40,400 Yuan versus 31,100 Yuan, P < 0.01). CONCLUSIONS: Prolonged LC is safe and feasible for patients with AC for having similar rates and severity of adverse events as early LC, but it is also associated with longer hospital stay and subsequently higher total cost.

A Systematic Review of the Accuracy of Insulin and C-peptide Secretion Ratios During the Oral Glucose Tolerance Test to Diagnose Insulinoma.

Background: Insulinoma is one of the causes of recurrent hypoglycemia, one of the chief complaints for emergency department admission. The gold standard in diagnosing insulinoma is a 72-hour fasting test which is inconvenient and inefficient as it requires hospitalization. Research has found that measurement of insulin and C-peptide during OGTT may help diagnose insulinoma. We aimed to assess the diagnostic value of OGTT in diagnosing insulinoma. Methodology: The literature search was conducted on 19 August 2022 using several databases (MEDLINE, Scopus, Embase, and ScienceDirect). All studies that measured OGTT as diagnostic tools in diagnosing insulinoma and 72-hour fasting test as reference standard were included. The quality assessment of the selected studies was based on the Centre of Evidence-Based Medicine University of Oxford and the Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy-2 tool (QUADAS-2). Analysis of the included studies was performed qualitatively. This study was registered on PROSPERO (CRD42022360205). Results: A total of two case-control studies (106 patients) were included, which were at risk of bias and low concern of applicability. Both studies demonstrated that the combination of insulin and C-peptide levels measured during OGTT had high specificity, sensitivity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value in diagnosing insulinoma compared to the reference standard. A logistic regression model of 8.305 - (0.441 × insulin 2-h/0-h) - (1.679 × C-peptide 1-h/0-h) >0.351 has the highest diagnostic value in one study (AUC 0.97, Sensitivity 86.5%, Specificity 95.2%, PPV 94.1, NPV 88.9). Conclusion: The measurement of 0-h and 2-h insulin and C-peptide levels during 2-h OGTT was found in two small case-control studies with a total of 106 patients to have good sensitivity and specificity. However, due to these limitations, future research is still needed to validate the potential use of OGTT for the diagnosis of insulinoma.

Missing persons patterns from Mexico: evidence of a forensic emergency crisis.

The relatives of missing persons in Mexico have denounced the slowness with which a court prosecution file is created by the justice administration system. Theoretically, the search is immediate, but many cases must wait 72 h to build an investigation folder as a legal criterion. This standard has been copied from the UK and Australian police reports without adapting to the Mexican context. The analysis of disappearance reports between 2006 and 2018 shows that this timing criterion in Mexico is not supported. The analyzed database (the National Center for Planning, Analysis, and Information to Combat Crime, CENAPI) showed that in the 72-h range, only 34.53% of the people had been found alive or dead; figure far from 50% to 80% of Europe or Australia. This fact shows that those searching officers or the judicial bureaucracy can act as a factor that limits the search for missing persons. Additionally, there is a random pattern in the geospatial distribution of disappearance, with non-homogeneous frequencies per year. Results highlight the participation of families, the adoption of an evidence-based model, and the generation of geospatial forensic intelligence analysis to generate evidence-based public policies. The social demand of families to the government for not considering them takes relevance in forensic practice in Mexico, and the disappearance data support this assertion.

The effect of breastfeeding on body temperature, body weight, and jaundice of 0-72h old infants.

OBJECTIVE: The research aimed to determine the effect of breastfeeding on body temperature, body weight, and jaundice of 0-72h-old infants in Sitti Khadijah I Mother and Child Hospital of Makassar. METHOD: The research was an observational longitudinal design. The samples were breastfeeding mothers and 0-72h-old newborn infants consisting of 70 people selected using the purposive sampling method. The data were analyzed using the Chi-square test. RESULT: The result of the research indicated that there are 29 respondents (41.4%) giving exclusive breastfeeding with infants normal body temperature 29 people (100%), decreasing body weight 28 people (96.6%), and no jaundice 29 people (100%), while the respondents who do not give breastfeeding consist of 41 people (58.6%) with body temperature undergoing hyperthermia one respondent (2.4%), increasing body weight three people (7.3%) and jaundice four people (9.8%). CONCLUSION: There is an effect of giving breastfeeding on body temperature (p=0.016), but there is no effect on body weight (p=0.168) and jaundice (p=0.083) of 0-72h-old infants.

A Machine Learning Model for Predicting Unscheduled 72 h Return Visits to the Emergency Department by Patients with Abdominal Pain.

Seventy-two-hour unscheduled return visits (URVs) by emergency department patients are a key clinical index for evaluating the quality of care in emergency departments (EDs). This study aimed to develop a machine learning model to predict 72 h URVs for ED patients with abdominal pain. Electronic health records data were collected from the Chang Gung Research Database (CGRD) for 25,151 ED visits by patients with abdominal pain and a total of 617 features were used for analysis. We used supervised machine learning models, namely logistic regression (LR), support vector machine (SVM), random forest (RF), extreme gradient boosting (XGB), and voting classifier (VC), to predict URVs. The VC model achieved more favorable overall performance than other models (AUROC: 0.74; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.69-0.76; sensitivity, 0.39; specificity, 0.89; F1 score, 0.25). The reduced VC model achieved comparable performance (AUROC: 0.72; 95% CI, 0.69-0.74) to the full models using all clinical features. The VC model exhibited the most favorable performance in predicting 72 h URVs for patients with abdominal pain, both for all-features and reduced-features models. Application of the VC model in the clinical setting after validation may help physicians to make accurate decisions and decrease URVs.

Association Between the Central Venous Pressure and All-Cause Mortality in Critically Ill Patients with Acute Kidney Injury.

PURPOSE: Elevated central venous pressure (CVP) plays an important role in the occurrence of acute kidney injury (AKI) and it is also independently associated with the prognosis of critically ill patients. However, the effect of CVP on critically ill AKI patients remains unclear. In this study, we analyzed the relationship between CVP and all-cause mortality of critically ill patients with AKI. PATIENTS AND METHODS: The clinical data of patients in intensive care unit (ICU) were retrieved from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care III (MIMIC-III) database and retrospectively analyzed. The all-cause mortality for up to 90 days was the main observed outcome. We used the minimum CVP value obtained during the first 72 hours after ICU admission for our analysis and patients were grouped according to this parameter. Patients were also analyzed after being further divided according to stages 1, 2 and 3 of AKI. Multiple Cox regression and Kaplan-Meier analyses were used to explore the association between CVP measurements and death of ICU patients with AKI. RESULTS: A total of 1986 ICU patients with AKI were studied. A total of 527 (26.5%) patients died by day 90. The high CVP group (patients with ≥10 mmHg) had the lowest 90-day survival rate (P =0.001 by log rank test) when according to Kaplan-Meier analysis. By using Cox regression analysis, high CVP was found to be linked to an increase in mortality (CVP ≥10 mmHg versus ≤5 mmHg, HR, 1.336, 95% CI, 1.064 to 1.677, P trend=0.014). Furthermore, when using in a multivariate Cox regression analysis with CVP as a continuous variable, the higher CVP levels were still an independent risk factor for 90-day all-cause mortality (per 1 mmHg increase, HR, 1.031, 95% CI, 1.013-1.049, P=0.001). In subgroup analysis, a similar trend was observed in patients with AKI stages 2 and 3. CONCLUSION: The minimum CVP level during the first 72h after ICU admission was positively associated with mortality in critically ill patients with AKI and this more marked in cases with severe AKI.

Exocrine pancreatic insufficiency related fat malabsorption and its association with autonomic neuropathy in Asian Indians with type 2 diabetes mellitus.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: We aimed to estimate the prevalence of exocrine pancreatic insufficiency (EPI) related fat malabsorption & to correlate it with measures of autonomic neuropathy in patients with T2DM from India. METHODS: Patients with T2DM (cases; n = 118) and normo-glycaemic individuals (controls; n = 82) underwent anthropometry and biochemical evaluation at baseline. The 72-hours fecal fat excretion was estimated by the Van de Kamer's titration method. Autonomic neuropathy was evaluated using an automated analyzer. RESULTS: The prevalence of EPI related fat malabsorption in cases was 45% (n = 53; 72 hours mean fecal fat level = 22.7 ± 5.6 g/day). Dysfunctions in the parasympathetic nervous system (PNS; 86.7%; p < 0.05), sympathetic nervous system (SNS; 92.4%; p < 0.05), and both; PNS + SNS (83.1%; p < 0.05) were significant. Amongst measures of PNS dysfunction, there was a significantly higher percentage of abnormal expiration: inspiration ratio (45.3%) and the 30:15 ratio (84.9%) (p < 0.05) in patients with T2DM and EPI related fat malabsorption. CONCLUSION: In this cross-sectional cohort of Asian Indian patients with T2DM (n = 118), EPI related fat malabsorption correlates significantly with autonomic dysfunction in patients with T2DM. However, these preliminary data need to confirmed in trials with more robust design.

MRI combined with early clinical variables are excellent outcome predictors for newborn infants undergoing therapeutic hypothermia after perinatal asphyxia.

BACKGROUND: Binary prediction-models for outcome [death, cognition, presence and severity of cerebral palsy (CP)], using MRI and early clinical data applicable for individual outcome prediction have not been developed. METHODS: From Dec 1st 2006 until Dec 31st 2013, we recruited 178 infants into a population-based cohort with moderate or severe hypoxic-ischaemic encephalopathy (HIE) including postnatal collapse (PNC, n = 12) and additional diagnoses (n = 12) using CoolCap/TOBY-trial entry-criteria including depressed amplitude-integrated EEG (aEEG). Early clinical/biochemical variables and MRI scans (median day 8) were obtained in 168 infants. Injury severity was scored for cortex, basal ganglia/thalami (BGT), white matter (WM) and posterior limb of the internal capsule, summating to a total injury score (TIS, range 0-11). Outcome was categorized as adverse or favourable at 18-24 months from Bayley-III domains (cut-off 85) and neurological examination including CP classification. FINDINGS: HIE and entry-aEEG severity were stable throughout the study. Outcome was favourable in 133/178 infants and adverse in 45/178: 17 died, 28 had low Cognition/Language scores, (including 9 with severe CP and 6 mild); seven had mild CP with favourable cognitive outcome. WMxBGT product scores and TIS were strong outcome predictors, and prediction improved when clinical/biochemical variables were added in binary logistic regression. The Positive Predictive Value for adverse outcome was 88%, increasing to 95% after excluding infants with PNC and additional diagnoses. Using WMxBGT in the regression predicted 8 of the 9 children with severe CP. INTERPRETATION: Binary logistic regression with WMxBGT or TIS and clinical variables gave excellent outcome prediction being 12% better than single variable cross-tabulation. Our MRI scoring and regression models are readily accessible and deserve investigation in other cohorts for group and individual prediction. FUNDING: We thank the National Health Service (NHS) and our Universities and funders in UK and Norway: SPARKS, The Moulton Foundation, The Norwegian Research Council, The Lærdal Foundation for Acute Medicine and charitable donations for their support for cooling therapy.

Predictive factors in patients eligible for pegfilgrastim prophylaxis focusing on RDI using ordered logistic regression analysis.

Although pegfilgrastim prophylaxis is expected to maintain the relative dose intensity (RDI) of chemotherapy and improve safety, information is limited. However, the optimal selection of patients eligible for pegfilgrastim prophylaxis is an important issue from a medical economics viewpoint. Therefore, this retrospective study identified factors that could predict these eligible patients to maintain the RDI. The participants included 166 cancer patients undergoing pegfilgrastim prophylaxis combined with chemotherapy in our outpatient chemotherapy center between March 2015 and April 2017. Variables were extracted from clinical records for regression analysis of factors related to maintenance of the RDI. RDI was classified into four categories: 100% = 0, 85% or < 100% = 1, 60% or < 85% = 2, and < 60% = 3. Multivariate ordered logistic regression analysis was performed to identify predictive factors in patients eligible for pegfilgrastim prophylaxis to maintain the RDI. Threshold measures were examined using a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis curve. Age [odds ratio (OR) 1.07, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.04-1.11; P < 0.0001], anemia (grade) (OR 1.77, 95% CI 1.10-2.84; P = 0.0184), and administration 24-72 h after chemotherapy (OR 0.44, 95% CI 0.22-0.89; P = 0.0224) were factors that significantly correlated with RDI maintenance. ROC curve analysis of the group that failed to maintain the RDI indicated that the threshold for age was 70 years and above, with a sensitivity of 60.0% and specificity of 80.2% (area under the curve: 0.74). In conclusion, younger age, anemia (less), and administration of pegfilgrastim 24-72 h after chemotherapy were significant factors for RDI maintenance.

72-h therapeutic hypothermia improves neurological outcomes in paediatric asphyxial out-of-hospital cardiac arrest-An exploratory investigation.

BACKGROUND: Recent studies suggest that a 48-h therapeutic hypothermia protocol does not improve outcomes in paediatric out-of-hospital cardiac arrest survivors. The aim of this study was to evaluate the effect of 72-h therapeutic hypothermia at 33 °C compared to normothermia at 35.5 °C-37.5 °C on outcomes and the incidence of adverse events in paediatric asphyxial out-of-hospital cardiac arrest survivors. METHODS: We conducted this retrospective cohort study at a tertiary paediatric intensive care unit between January 2010 and June 2017. All children from 1 month to 18 years of age with asphyxial out-of-hospital cardiac arrest and a history of at least 3 min of chest compressions who survived for 12 h or more after the return of circulation were eligible. RESULTS: Sixty-four patients met the eligibility criteria for the study. Forty-nine (76.6%) of the 64 children were male, and the mean age was 4.86+/-5.26 years. Twenty-four (37.5%) of the children had underlying disorders. The overall 1-month survival rate was 43.2%. Twenty-five (39.1%) of the children received therapeutic hypothermia at 33 °C for 72 h. The 1-month survival rate was significantly higher (p = 0.037) in the therapeutic hypothermia group (15/25, 60%) than in the normothermia group (12/39, 30.8%). The therapeutic hypothermia group had significantly better neurological outcomes (7/15, 46.7%) than the normothermia group (1/12, 8.3%) (p = 0.043). CONCLUSION: Paediatric asphyxial out-of-hospital cardiac arrest was associated with high mortality and morbidity. Seventy-two-hour therapeutic hypothermia was associated with a better 1-month survival rate and 6-month neurological outcomes than normothermia in our paediatric patients with asphyxial out-of-hospital cardiac arrest.