CA-Markov prediction modeling for the assessment of land use/land cover change in two sub-basins of the Tocantins-Araguaia River Basin.

Due to the anthropogenic pressures of expansion areas for livestock and agricultural production in the Brazilian Cerrado, it is of paramount importance to understand the dynamics of land use/land cover (LULC) changes in this region. Thus, we investigated LULC changes in two sub-basins of the Tocantins-Araguaia River basin from 1997 to 2015 and consequently projected future changes for the timespan between 2030 and 2050. The Formoso sub-basin experienced significant expansion of agricultural and pasture areas, whereas the Sono sub-basin limited farmland expansion (more stable native vegetation) due to substantial protected areas, trends that were also observed for future projections (2030 and 2050). Pastureland in the Formoso sub-basin increased by 5.8%, while the Sono sub-basin saw significant gains in cultivated land, according to change detection analyses during the 1997-2015 period. High stability probabilities of no change (> 70%) for grassland areas in the Sono River sub-basin and pasturelands in the Formoso River sub-basin were computed. The CA-Markov model demonstrated a high consistency level with actual LULC classes for both sub-basins, as indicated by an overall Kappa coefficient above 0.8. Future projections for 2030 and 2050 show a substantial expansion of agriculture and pasture in both sub-basins, driven by specific factors such as soil organic carbon stocks, distance from rural settlements, and proximity to rivers. Short- and mid-term simulations indicate substantial expansion of agriculture and pasture in both basins, with potential adverse impacts on water erosion. Consequently, developing policies for soil management and sustainable land use planning is essential for agroecosystem sustainability, promoting a balanced approach to economic development while addressing climate change and anthropogenic challenges.

Explaining the emergence of land-use frontiers.

Land-use expansion is linked to major sustainability concerns including climate change, food security and biodiversity loss. This expansion is largely concentrated in so-called 'frontiers', defined here as places experiencing marked transformations owing to rapid resource exploitation. Understanding the mechanisms shaping these frontiers is crucial for sustainability. Previous work focused mainly on explaining how active frontiers advance, in particular, into tropical forests. Comparatively, our understanding of how frontiers emerge in territories considered marginal in terms of agricultural productivity and global market integration remains weak. We synthesize conceptual tools explaining resource and land-use frontiers, including theories of land rent and agglomeration economies, of frontiers as successive waves, spaces of territorialization, friction and opportunities, anticipation and expectation. We then propose a new theory of frontier emergence, which identifies exogenous pushes, legacies of past waves and actors' anticipations as key mechanisms by which frontiers emerge. Processes of differential rent creation and capture and the built-up of agglomeration economies then constitute key mechanisms sustaining active frontiers. Finally, we discuss five implications for the governance of frontiers for sustainability. Our theory focuses on agriculture and deforestation frontiers in the tropics but can be inspirational for other frontier processes including for extractive resources, such as minerals.

Long-term sustainability of the water-agriculture-energy nexus in Brazil's MATOPIBA region: A case study using system dynamics.

The global demand for agricultural commodities has driven extensive land conversion to agriculture in Brazil, especially in the MATOPIBA region. This area encompasses the Rio Grande Basin, a major tributary of the São Francisco Basin that is known for expanding intensive irrigated agriculture and hydropower generation. However, recent data reveal declining precipitation and aquifer recharge, potentially exacerbating ongoing water and land conflicts. This study investigates the long-term sustainability of agricultural expansion amid the worsening water scarcity using a system dynamics model. Findings suggest that rising costs and decreasing profits due to irrigation water shortages may hinder the expansion of irrigated land. By 2040, the irrigation demand may remain partly unmet, while downstream flow and baseflow could decrease. Additionally, agricultural expansion will significantly raise energy demand, posing a developmental challenge. We suggest that ensuring the sustainability of the Rio Grande Basin depends on improved water management and exploring alternative energy sources to address existing constraints.

Conversion of boreal forests to agricultural systems: soil microbial responses along a land-conversion chronosequence.

BACKGROUND: Boreal regions are warming at more than double the global average, creating opportunities for the northward expansion of agriculture. Expanding agricultural production in these regions will involve the conversion of boreal forests to agricultural fields, with cumulative impacts on soil microbial communities and associated biogeochemical cycling processes. Understanding the magnitude or rate of change that will occur with these biological processes will provide information that will enable these regions to be developed in a more sustainable manner, including managing carbon and nitrogen losses. This study, based in the southern boreal region of Canada where agricultural expansion has been occurring for decades, used a paired forest-adjacent agricultural field approach to quantify how soil microbial communities and functions were altered at three different stages post-conversion (< 10, > 10 and < 50, and > 50 years). Soil microbial functional capacity was assessed by quantitative PCR of genes associated with carbon (C), nitrogen, and phosphorous (P) cycling; microbial taxonomic diversity and community structure was assessed by amplicon sequencing. RESULTS: Fungal alpha diversity did not change, but communities shifted from Basidiomycota to Ascomycota dominant within the first decade. Bacterial alpha diversity increased, with Gemmatimonadota groups generally increasing and Actinomycetota groups generally decreasing in agricultural soils. These altered communities led to altered functional capacity. Functional genes associated with nitrification and low molecular weight C cycling potential increased after conversion, while those associated with organic P mineralization potential decreased. Stable increases in most N cycling functions occurred within the first decade, but C cycling functions were still changing 50 years post conversion. CONCLUSIONS: Microbial communities underwent a rapid shift in the first decade, followed by several decades of slower transition until stabilizing 50 years post conversion. Understanding how the microbial communities respond at different stages post-conversion improves our ability to predict C and N losses from emerging boreal agricultural systems, and provides insight into how best to manage these soils in a way that is sustainable at the local level and within a global context.

Local effects of deforestation on stream fish assemblages in the amazon-savannah transitional area

The expansion of agriculture in the southeast Amazon-Savanah transitional area has greatly decreased forest cover and influenced stream structure and functioning. We assessed the effects of forest cover loss on the integrity of streams by assessing stream physical conditions and the taxonomic and functional diversity of fish assemblages in this transitional area. We hypothesize that low forest cover, especially adjacent to streams, results in poor physical conditions (e.g., warmer temperatures, less physical structure, etc.), which in turn will decrease the taxonomic and functional diversity of fish assemblages. We detected that loss of forest cover negatively affects natural stream conditions and reduces the functional diversity of fish assemblages, but we did not find a strong effect on taxonomic diversity. Ambush and stalking predators, diurnal surface pickers (groups that exhibit opportunistic life history strategies), grazers, pickers, and browsers (groups that exhibit equilibrium life history strategies) were the functional groups with the strongest relation to altered environments. These groups can explore different niches, both with natural characteristics or altered by human activities. Our results suggest that the preservation of riparian zones can minimize the loss of specialized fish species in assemblages of Amazon-Savannah stream systems.(AU)

A expansão da agricultura na área de transição Amazônia-Savana diminuiu muito a cobertura florestal, influenciando a estrutura e o funcionamento dos sistemas de riachos. Avaliamos o efeito da perda de cobertura florestal na integridade dos riachos avaliando as condições físicas do ambiente e a diversidade taxonômica e funcional das assembleias de peixes nesta área de transição. Nossa hipótese é que a baixa cobertura florestal, especialmente adjacente ao riacho, resulta em más condições físicas (por exemplo, temperaturas mais quentes, e menos estrutura física) o que por sua vez diminuirá os valores da diversidade taxonômica e funcional das assembleias de peixes. Detectamos que a perda de cobertura florestal afeta negativamente as condições naturais e reduz a diversidade funcional das assembleias de peixes, mas não encontramos um efeito para a diversidade taxonômica. Predadores de emboscada e espreita, catadores de superfície diurnos, pastores, catadores e navegadores foram os grupos funcionais que tiveram a relação mais forte com ambientes alterados. Esses grupos podem explorar diferentes nichos, tanto com características naturais quanto alterados pela ação antrópica. Nossos resultados sugerem a preservação da zona ripária a fim de evitar a perda de espécies especializadas das assembleias de peixes de riachos.(AU)