Criminal Use of Assault Weapons and High-Capacity Semiautomatic Firearms: an Updated Examination of Local and National Sources.

Policies restricting semiautomatic assault weapons and large-capacity ammunition magazines are intended to reduce gunshot victimizations by limiting the stock of semiautomatic firearms with large ammunition capacities and other military-style features conducive to criminal use. The federal government banned such weaponry from 1994 to 2004, and a few states currently impose similar restrictions. Recent debates concerning these weapons have highlighted their use in mass shootings, but there has been little examination of their use in gun crime more generally since the expiration of the federal ban. This study investigates current levels of criminal activity with assault weapons and other high-capacity semiautomatics in the USA using several local and national data sources including the following: (1) guns recovered by police in ten large cities, (2) guns reported by police to federal authorities for investigative tracing, (3) guns used in murders of police, and (4) guns used in mass murders. Results suggest assault weapons (primarily assault-type rifles) account for 2-12% of guns used in crime in general (most estimates suggest less than 7%) and 13-16% of guns used in murders of police. Assault weapons and other high-capacity semiautomatics together generally account for 22 to 36% of crime guns, with some estimates upwards of 40% for cases involving serious violence including murders of police. Assault weapons and other high-capacity semiautomatics appear to be used in a higher share of firearm mass murders (up to 57% in total), though data on this issue are very limited. Trend analyses also indicate that high-capacity semiautomatics have grown from 33 to 112% as a share of crime guns since the expiration of the federal ban-a trend that has coincided with recent growth in shootings nationwide. Further research seems warranted on how these weapons affect injuries and deaths from gun violence and how their regulation may impact public health.

Public Mass Shootings: Counterfactual Trend Analysis of the Federal Assault Weapons Ban.

Background: Assault weapon and large-capacity magazine bans are potential tools for policy makers to prevent public mass shootings. However, the efficacy of these bans is a continual source of debate. In an earlier study, we estimated the impact of the Federal Assault Weapons Ban (FAWB) on the number of public mass shooting events in the United States. This study provides an updated assessment with 3 additional years of firearm surveillance data to characterize the longer-term effects. Objective: This study aims to estimate the impact of the FAWB on trends in public mass shootings from 1966 to 2022. Methods: We used linear regression to estimate the impact of the FAWB on the 4-year simple moving average of annual public mass shootings, defined by events with 4 or more deaths in 24 hours, not including the perpetrator. The study period spans 1966 to 2022. The model includes indicator variables for both the FAWB period (1995-2004) and the period after its removal (2005-2022). These indicators were interacted with a linear time trend. Estimates were controlled for the national homicide rate. After estimation, the model provided counterfactual estimates of public mass shootings if the FAWB was never imposed and if the FAWB remained in place. Results: The overall upward trajectory in the number of public mass shootings substantially fell while the FAWB was in place. These trends are specific to events in which the perpetrator used an assault weapon or large-capacity magazine. Point estimates suggest the FAWB prevented up to 5 public mass shootings while the ban was active. A continuation of the FAWB and large-capacity magazine ban would have prevented up to 38 public mass shootings, but the CIs become wider as time moves further away from the period of the FAWB. Conclusions: The FAWB, which included a ban on large-capacity magazines, was associated with fewer public mass shooting events, fatalities, and nonfatal gun injuries. Gun control legislation is an important public health tool in the prevention of public mass shootings.

Retrospective evidence for pediatric benefit of U.S. assault weapons ban as rationale for implementing an even more effective ban.

BACKGROUND: With data available since 1981, firearm death rates in American children and adolescents can be evaluated for trends during the 13 years before, the decade of, and during 16 years since the United States (U.S.) 1994-2004 Federal Assault Weapons Ban (FAWB). METHODS: National and regional firearm mortality trends in the U.S. during 1981-2020 were assessed with joinpoint regression applied to Centers for Disease Control and Prevention data. RESULTS: After increasing exponentially before the FAWB, the national firearm death rate in 0-14 year-olds promptly reversed course and declined throughout the FAWB and then reversed again after the FAWB and resumed an exponential increase (all phases p<0.001). The reduction in firearm death rate occurred within 1-3 years of the start of the FAWB, in both sexes, in all four census regions of the U.S., and in all four major race/ethnicity subgroups, especially non-Hispanic blacks. No other form of violence in 0-14 year-olds had this temporal relationship with the FAWB. The firearm mortality reduction during the FAWB is strongly-highly correlated with the concomitant reduction in handgun manufacturing in 91 % of 24 sex, race/ethnicity and region subsets analyzed, These FAWB-related trends were also apparent in older adolescents and young adults and less so in older persons. CONCLUSIONS: Firearm death rates in 0-14 year-olds before, during, and after the FAWB, and no other type of injury, implicate the FAWB as having had a beneficial effect. Legislation to mitigate firearm mortality and injury inclusive of a FAWB should be especially beneficial to children and young adolescents, and regardless of sex, race/ethnicity or region in the U.S.

The sustained effect of a temporary measure: Urban firearm mortality following expiration of the Federal Assault Weapons Ban.

BACKGROUND: The Federal Assault Weapons Ban (FAWB) was in effect from 1994 to 2004. We sought to examine its impact on firearm-related homicides. METHODS: All firearm-related homicides occurring in three metropolitan United States cities were analyzed during the decade preceding (PRE), during (BAN), and after (POST) the FAWB. Files were obtained from the Federal Bureau of Investigation. Rates of firearm-related homicides were stratified by year and compared using simple linear regression. RESULTS: 21,327 firearm-related homicides were analyzed. The median number of firearm-related homicides per year decreased from 333 (PRE) to 199 (BAN) (p = 0.008). This effect persisted following expiration of the ban (BAN 199 vs POST 206, p = 0.429). The rate of firearm-related homicides per 1 M population also decreased from 119.4 in 1985 to 49.2 in 2014 (ß = -2.73, p < 0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: During the FAWB, there was a significant decrease in firearm-related homicides in three of the most dangerous cities, underscoring the need for better directed prevention efforts.

Impact of Firearm Surveillance on Gun Control Policy: Regression Discontinuity Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Public mass shootings are a significant public health problem that require ongoing systematic surveillance to test and inform policies that combat gun injuries. Although there is widespread agreement that something needs to be done to stop public mass shootings, opinions on exactly which policies that entails vary, such as the prohibition of assault weapons and large-capacity magazines. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to determine if the Federal Assault Weapons Ban (FAWB) (1994-2004) reduced the number of public mass shootings while it was in place. METHODS: We extracted public mass shooting surveillance data from the Violence Project that matched our inclusion criteria of 4 or more fatalities in a public space during a single event. We performed regression discontinuity analysis, taking advantage of the imposition of the FAWB, which included a prohibition on large-capacity magazines in addition to assault weapons. We estimated a regression model of the 5-year moving average number of public mass shootings per year for the period of 1966 to 2019 controlling for population growth and homicides in general, introduced regression discontinuities in the intercept and a time trend for years coincident with the federal legislation (ie, 1994-2004), and also allowed for a differential effect of the homicide rate during this period. We introduced a second set of trend and intercept discontinuities for post-FAWB years to capture the effects of termination of the policy. We used the regression results to predict what would have happened from 1995 to 2019 had there been no FAWB and also to project what would have happened from 2005 onward had it remained in place. RESULTS: The FAWB resulted in a significant decrease in public mass shootings, number of gun deaths, and number of gun injuries. We estimate that the FAWB prevented 11 public mass shootings during the decade the ban was in place. A continuation of the FAWB would have prevented 30 public mass shootings that killed 339 people and injured an additional 1139 people. CONCLUSIONS: This study demonstrates the utility of public health surveillance on gun violence. Surveillance informs policy on whether a ban on assault weapons and large-capacity magazines reduces public mass shootings. As society searches for effective policies to prevent the next mass shooting, we must consider the overwhelming evidence that bans on assault weapons and/or large-capacity magazines work.

Efficacy of "touch" DNA recovery and room-temperature storage from assault rifle magazines.

Crimes committed with assault rifles are becoming increasingly prevalent in the United States. In the absence of other evidence, DNA analysis can often provide informative leads. Unfortunately, any DNA transferred to rifle components left behind at a crime scene is likely to be low in quantity and/or quality. Furthermore, collected evidence is unlikely to be processed immediately and may require storage. Long-term storage can subject DNA to damage and degradation, which ultimately affects DNA profile interpretation and may prevent the identification of potential suspects. This study assessed the ability of a new swab storage device, the SwabSaver®, to preserve "touch" DNA from AR-15 magazine rifles using three different collection devices. Three volunteers loaded bullet cartridges into plastic polymer and aluminum AR-15 magazines. DNA was collected with traditional cotton swabs, layered cotton paper swabs, or nylon-flocked swabs. Collection devices were then stored at room-temperature for up to two months in either the SwabSaver® device or an empty centrifuge tube. The results suggest that substrate and swab type had less of an effect on profile completeness than storage type. Furthermore, SwabSaver® storage yielded DNA quantities comparable to "touch" DNA extracted after 24 h.