Exercise for knee osteoarthritis pain: Association or causation?

Exercise is universally recommended as a primary strategy for the management of knee osteoarthritis (OA) pain. The recommendations are based on results from more than 100 randomized controlled trials (RCTs) that compare exercise to no-attention control groups. However, due to the inherent difficulties with adequate placebo control, participant blinding and the use of patient-reported outcomes, the existing RCT evidence is imperfect. To better understand the evidence used to support a causal relationship between exercise and knee OA pain relief, we examined the existing evidence through the Bradford Hill considerations for causation. The Bradford Hill considerations, first proposed in 1965 by Sir Austin Bradford Hill, provide a framework for assessment of possible causal relationships. There are 9 considerations by which the evidence is reviewed: Strength of association, Consistency, Specificity, Temporality, Biological Gradient (Dose-Response), Plausibility, Coherence, Experiment, and Analogy. Viewing the evidence from these 9 viewpoints did neither bring forward indisputable evidence for nor against the causal relationship between exercise and improved knee OA pain. Rather, we conclude that the current evidence is not sufficient to support claims about (lack of) causality. With our review, we hope to advance the continued global conversation about how to improve the evidence-based management of patients with knee OA.

Pediatric acute kidney injury and adverse health outcomes: using a foundational framework to evaluate a causal link.

Acute kidney injury (AKI) is a major global health problem, expensive to manage, and its associations with negative pediatric health outcomes have been clearly demonstrated. One of the most fundamental questions to consider as we use previous epidemiological information to advance research and care paradigms is the strength of the causal link between pediatric AKI and health outcomes. In this review, we apply the foundational framework of the Bradford Hill criteria to evaluate the extent to which a causal link exists between AKI and the associated adverse outcomes in children. Available data in children support a causal link between AKI and short-term outcomes including mortality, length of stay, and ventilation time. Clarifying the causal nature of longer term associations requires further high-quality observational studies in children, careful consideration of what defines the most meaningful and measurable longer term outcomes after pediatric AKI, and integration of evolving biological data related to mechanisms of disease. Preventing or mitigating AKI should lead to improved outcomes. Demonstrating such reversibility will solidify confidence in the causal relationship, improve child health, and highlight an aspect which is highly relevant to clinicians, scientists, and policy makers.

New insights into the paradox between smoking and the risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection (COVID-19): Insufficient evidence for a causal association.

AIMS: Previous studies have reported a 'smoker's paradox', where people who smoke appear to be protected against Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome CoronaVirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection (COVID-19). This conflicts with well-established evidence that people who smoke are generally more vulnerable to respiratory infections. In this study, we aimed to validate the association between smoking and SARS-CoV-2 infection in a general Dutch population, and to evaluate the evidence underlying the possible causal relationship between smoking and SARS-CoV-2 infection by applying a modern adaptation of the Bradford Hill criteria. METHODS: In total, 57,833 participants from the Lifelines Cohort Study were included in the analysis. Smoking status, including never smoker, current smoker, and former smoker, was derived from the Lifelines general assessment between 2014 and 2017, while SARS-CoV-2 infection status was derived from an additional COVID-19 questionnaire from 2021 to 2022. Logistic regressions were used for the association between smoking status and infection status. The adapted Bradford Hill's criteria, including the strength of association (including an analysis of plausible confounding), plausibility, temporality and study design suitability, were applied to evaluate the existing literature. RESULTS: We found, compared with never smokers, an increased risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection for former smokers (odds ratio (OR)=1.07, 95% confidence interval (CI)=1.01-1.13), but a reduced risk for current smokers (OR=0.85, 95% CI=0.79-0.92), after adjusting for several relevant covariates. However, we discerned a possible explanation of the smoker's paradox since we observed that current smokers were more likely to be non-responders to the COVID-19 questions and, more importantly, these non-responders were more likely to have other established risk factors for SARS-CoV-2 infection. CONCLUSIONS: There is insufficient evidence to suggest that smoking protects against SARS-CoV-2 infection. According to the adapted Bradford Hill's criteria, we observed a high inconsistency between study results, a high possibility for residual confounding and no clear evidence for biological plausibility. Future studies should include linkage with the confirmed testing results from national healthcare registries to mitigate avoidable bias.

Evidential requirements for the regulatory hazard and risk assessment of respiratory sensitisers: methyl methacrylate as an example.

This review addresses the need for a framework to increase the consistency, objectivity and transparency in the regulatory assessment of respiratory sensitisers and associated uncertainties. Principal issues are considered and illustrated through a case study (with methyl methacrylate). In the absence of test methods validated for regulatory use, formal documentation of the weight-of-evidence for hazard classification both at the level of integration of individual studies within lines of evidence and across a broad range of data streams was agreed to be critical for such a framework. An integrated approach is proposed to include not only occupational studies and clinical evidence for the regulatory assessment of respiratory sensitisers, but also information on structure and physical and chemical factors, predictive approaches such as structure activity analysis and in vitro and in vivo mechanistic and toxicokinetic findings. A weight-of-evidence protocol, incorporating integration of these sources of data based on predefined considerations, would contribute to transparency and consistency in the outcome of the assessment. In those cases where a decision may need to be taken on the basis of occupational findings alone, conclusions should be based on transparent weighting of relevant data on the observed prevalence of occupational asthma in various studies taking into account all relevant information including the range and nature of workplace exposures to the substance of interest, co-exposure to other chemicals and study quality.

[A common dilemma in medicine : fortuitous association or causal relationship ?] / Vignette diagnostique de l'étudiant. Un dilemme fréquent en médecine : association fortuite ou relation causale ?

Making the differential diagnosis between a simple fortuitous association and a true causal relationship is a challenge commonly encountered not only in epidemiology, but also in clinical practice. The nine criteria supporting a causal relationship published by Bradford-Hill in 1965 remain relevant, even if some amendments were proposed in recent years. The present clinical scenario illustrates this problem by analyzing the controversies concerning the relationships between hypercholesterolemia (LDL) and coronary heart disease on the one hand and between statin therapy and myalgia on the other hand.

Faire le diagnostic différentiel entre une simple association fortuite et une réelle relation de causalité est un défi fréquemment rencontré, non seulement en épidémiologie mais aussi dans la pratique médicale. Les neuf critères plaidant pour une relation causale publiés par Bradford-Hill en 1965 restent toujours d'actualité, même si certains amendements ont été proposés dans les dernières années. Cette vignette clinique illustre cette problématique en analysant les controverses à propos, d'une part, de la relation entre hypercholestérolémie (LDL) et maladie coronarienne, et d'autre part, de la relation entre traitement par statines et myalgie.

Causation and causal inference in obstetrics-gynecology.

Causation and causal inference are of utmost importance in obstetrics and gynecology. In many clinical situations, causal reasoning is involved in etiological explanations, diagnostic considerations, and conversations about prognosis. In this paper, we offer an overview of the philosophical accounts of causation that may not be familiar to, but still be appreciated by, the busy clinician. In our discussion, we do not try to simplify what is a rather complex range of ideas. We begin with an introduction to some important basic ideas, followed by 2 sections on the metaphysical and epistemological aspects of causality, which offer a more detailed discussion of some of its specific philosophical facets, using examples from obstetrical and gynecologic research and practice along the way. We hope our discussion will help deepen the thinking and discourse about causation and causal inference in gynecology and obstetrics.

A quantitative weight of evidence assessment of Hill's guidelines for causal inference for cosmetic talc as a cause of mesothelioma.

Cosmetic talc has been suggested to cause mesothelioma. To assess a potential causal relationship between cosmetic talc and mesothelioma, a quantitative weight of evidence analysis was performed in accordance with Hill's nine original guidelines for causal inference using a published empirical model to weight each respective guideline. Various epidemiological, toxicological, and exposure studies related to cosmetic talc and risk of mesothelioma were included in an evaluation of each of Hill's guidelines. Probabilities that the guidelines were true were assigned based on expert judgment. We applied a sensitivity analysis to evaluate the variability of our probability estimates. The overall probability of causality for cosmetic talc and mesothelioma was approximately 1.29% (range: 0.73%-3.96%). This low probability of causality supports the conclusion that cosmetic talc is not related to the development of mesothelioma.

Assessing causality in epidemiology: revisiting Bradford Hill to incorporate developments in causal thinking.

The nine Bradford Hill (BH) viewpoints (sometimes referred to as criteria) are commonly used to assess causality within epidemiology. However, causal thinking has since developed, with three of the most prominent approaches implicitly or explicitly building on the potential outcomes framework: directed acyclic graphs (DAGs), sufficient-component cause models (SCC models, also referred to as 'causal pies') and the grading of recommendations, assessment, development and evaluation (GRADE) methodology. This paper explores how these approaches relate to BH's viewpoints and considers implications for improving causal assessment. We mapped the three approaches above against each BH viewpoint. We found overlap across the approaches and BH viewpoints, underscoring BH viewpoints' enduring importance. Mapping the approaches helped elucidate the theoretical underpinning of each viewpoint and articulate the conditions when the viewpoint would be relevant. Our comparisons identified commonality on four viewpoints: strength of association (including analysis of plausible confounding); temporality; plausibility (encoded by DAGs or SCC models to articulate mediation and interaction, respectively); and experiments (including implications of study design on exchangeability). Consistency may be more usefully operationalised by considering an effect size's transportability to a different population or unexplained inconsistency in effect sizes (statistical heterogeneity). Because specificity rarely occurs, falsification exposures or outcomes (i.e., negative controls) may be more useful. The presence of a dose-response relationship may be less than widely perceived as it can easily arise from confounding. We found limited utility for coherence and analogy. This study highlights a need for greater clarity on BH viewpoints to improve causal assessment.

Strength in causality: discerning causal mechanisms in the sufficient cause model.

The assessment of causality is fundamental to epidemiology and biomedical sciences. One well-known approach to distinguishing causal from noncausal explanations is the nine Bradford Hill viewpoints. A recent article in this journal revisited the viewpoints to incorporate developments in causal thinking, suggesting that the sufficient cause model is useful in elucidating the theoretical underpinning of the first of the nine viewpoints-strength of association. In this article, we discuss how to discern the causal mechanisms of interest in the sufficient cause model, which pays closer attention to the relationship between the sufficient cause model and the Bradford Hill viewpoints. To this end, we explicate the link between the sufficient cause model and the potential-outcome model, both of which have become the cornerstone of causal thinking in epidemiology and biomedicine. A clearer understanding of the link between the two models provides significant implications for interpretation of the observed risks in the subpopulations defined by exposure and confounder. We also show that the concept of potential completion times of sufficient causes is useful to fully discerning completed sufficient causes, which leads us to pay closer attention to the fourth of the nine Bradford Hill viewpoints-temporality. Decades after its introduction, the sufficient cause model may be vaguely understood and thus implicitly used under unreasonably strict assumptions. To strengthen our assessment in the face of multifactorial causality, it is significant to carefully scrutinize the observed associations in a complementary manner, using the sufficient cause model as well as its relevant causal models.

An Evidence-Based Systematic Review of Human Knee Post-Traumatic Osteoarthritis (PTOA): Timeline of Clinical Presentation and Disease Markers, Comparison of Knee Joint PTOA Models and Early Disease Implications.

Understanding the causality of the post-traumatic osteoarthritis (PTOA) disease process of the knee joint is important for diagnosing early disease and developing new and effective preventions or treatments. The aim of this review was to provide detailed clinical data on inflammatory and other biomarkers obtained from patients after acute knee trauma in order to (i) present a timeline of events that occur in the acute, subacute, and chronic post-traumatic phases and in PTOA, and (ii) to identify key factors present in the synovial fluid, serum/plasma and urine, leading to PTOA of the knee in 23-50% of individuals who had acute knee trauma. In this context, we additionally discuss methods of simulating knee trauma and inflammation in in vivo, ex vivo articular cartilage explant and in vitro chondrocyte models, and answer whether these models are representative of the clinical inflammatory stages following knee trauma. Moreover, we compare the pro-inflammatory cytokine concentrations used in such models and demonstrate that, compared to concentrations in the synovial fluid after knee trauma, they are exceedingly high. We then used the Bradford Hill Framework to present evidence that TNF-α and IL-6 cytokines are causal factors, while IL-1ß and IL-17 are credible factors in inducing knee PTOA disease progresssion. Lastly, we discuss beneficial infrastructure for future studies to dissect the role of local vs. systemic inflammation in PTOA progression with an emphasis on early disease.

Principles of evidence-based medicine: from Robert Kochs postulates to a current EBM concept.

The aim of the article is to describe the development of the principles of medicine based on the evidence (EBM) based on postulates of Robert Koch, Nobel prize winner, protagonist of the "Golden Age" medical bacteriology, founder of a concept of modern microbiology and infectology. Kochs work led to the discovery of a causal relationship between exposure to a specific pathogen and disease on the example of identifying the cause of anthrax - Bacillus anthracis, a disease whose symptoms vary depending on the mode of transmission (gastrointestinal ingestion, cutaneous form on contact and pulmonary manifestations when inhaled). Tuberculosis caused by Kochs bacillus, Mycobacterium tuberculosis, yet still affecting 1.7 billion people (about 25 % of the world's population), in 95 % of cases in developing countries, where poverty and high prevalence of HIV are part of everyday life. Koch also discovered Vibrio cholerae, the pathogen responsible for seven recorded pandemics, and hitherto sporadic epidemics in recent years. The main contribution of the Kochs four postulates formulation was the principle, which helped to reveal the causal relationship between the pathogenic microbe to protrude infectious disease and obtain reliable evidence in improving credibility of diagnosis of infectious diseases. Other stages in the development of EBM were formulated by Bradford Hill in his nine principles, which are valid as well for noncommunicable diseases. The subjects of discussion are limitations and restrictions of present EBM and its essentials and the use in rational preventive, diagnostic and treatment strategies.

Piperacillin-Tazobactam Added to Vancomycin Increases Risk for Acute Kidney Injury: Fact or Fiction?

Vancomycin and piperacillin-tazobactam are 2 of the most commonly prescribed antibiotics in hospitals. Recent data from multiple meta-analyses suggest that the combination increases the risk for vancomycin-induced kidney injury when compared to alternative viable options. However, these studies are unable to prove biologic plausibility and causality as randomized controlled trials have not been performed. Furthermore, these studies define acute kidney injury according to thresholds of serum creatinine rise. Serum creatinine is not a direct indicator of renal injury, rather a surrogate of glomerular function. More reliable, specific, and sensitive biomarkers are needed to truly define if there is a causal relationship with increased toxicity when piperacillin-tazobactam is added to vancomycin. This viewpoint will explore the available evidence for and against increased acute kidney injury in the setting of vancomycin and piperacillin-tazobactam coadministration.

Post-Modern Epidemiology: When Methods Meet Matter.

In the last third of the 20th century, etiological epidemiology within academia in high-income countries shifted its primary concern from attempting to tackle the apparent epidemic of noncommunicable diseases to an increasing focus on developing statistical and causal inference methodologies. This move was mutually constitutive with the failure of applied epidemiology to make major progress, with many of the advances in understanding the causes of noncommunicable diseases coming from outside the discipline, while ironically revealing the infectious origins of several major conditions. Conversely, there were many examples of epidemiologic studies promoting ineffective interventions and little evident attempt to account for such failure. Major advances in concrete understanding of disease etiology have been driven by a willingness to learn about and incorporate into epidemiology developments in biology and cognate data science disciplines. If fundamental epidemiologic principles regarding the rooting of disease risk within populations are retained, recent methodological developments combined with increased biological understanding and data sciences capability should herald a fruitful post-Modern Epidemiology world.

The association between acute flaccid myelitis (AFM) and Enterovirus D68 (EV-D68) - what is the evidence for causation?

BackgroundEnterovirus D68 (EV-D68) has historically been a sporadic disease, causing occasional small outbreaks of generally mild infection. In recent years, there has been evidence of an increase in EV-D68 infections globally. Large outbreaks of EV-D68, with thousands of cases, occurred in the United States, Canada and Europe in 2014. The outbreaks were associated temporally and geographically with an increase in clusters of acute flaccid myelitis (AFM).Aims: We aimed to evaluate a causal association between EV-D68 and AFM. Methods: Using data from the published and grey literature, we applied the Bradford Hill criteria, a set of nine principles applied to examine causality, to evaluate the relationship between EV-D68 and AFM. Based on available evidence, we defined the Bradford Hill Criteria as being not met, or met minimally, partially or fully. Results: Available evidence applied to EV-D68 and AFM showed that six of the Bradford Hill criteria were fully met and two were partially met. The criterion of biological gradient was minimally met. The incidence of EV-D68 infections is increasing world-wide. Phylogenetic epidemiology showed diversification from the original Fermon and Rhyne strains since the year 2000, with evolution of a genetically distinct outbreak strain, clade B1. Clade B1, but not older strains, is associated with AFM and is neuropathic in animal models. Conclusion: While more research is needed on dose-response relationship, application of the Bradford Hill criteria supported a causal relationship between EV-D68 and AFM.

Evidence-Based Medicine and Rare Diseases.

This chapter discusses the meaning of evidence-based medicine and where it relates to randomised controlled trials, but also where it does not. The need for good quality evidence is stressed through a discussion of high failure rates in drug development and arguments against access to unlicensed (and largely untested) treatments are set out (despite the good intentions of those who advocate such access to treatments).Good quality, reliable evidence does not always have to come from clinical trials. Other forms of evidence are discussed. Meta-analyses of individual trials may help to resolve the problem that, in rare diseases, it may be very difficult or impossible to do adequately powered clinical trials - but that does not imply those trials have no value at all.The importance of patients' choices is stressed but the difficulties of making choices and the general poor understanding of risk can make patients and caregivers, as well as healthcare professionals, very vulnerable to making poor decisions. All stakeholders need to be adequately guided through the evidence to make proper informed decisions.

A weight of evidence assessment approach for adverse outcome pathways.

The adverse outcome pathway (AOP) is a framework to mechanistically link molecular initiating events to adverse biological outcomes. From a regulatory perspective, it is of crucial importance to determine the confidence for the AOP in question as well as the quality of data available in supporting this evaluation. A weight of evidence approach has been proposed for this task, but many of the existing frameworks for weight of evidence evaluation are qualitative and there is not clear guidance regarding how weight of evidence should be calculated for an AOP. In this paper we advocate the use of a subject matter expertise driven approach for weight of evidence evaluation based on criteria and metrics related to data quality and the strength of causal linkages between key events. As a demonstration, we notionally determine weight of evidence scores for two AOPs: Non-competitive ionotropic GABA receptor antagonism leading to epileptic seizures, and Antagonist-binding and stabilization of a co-repressor to the peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor α (PPARα) signaling complex ultimately causing starvation-like weight loss.

From Correlation to Causation: What Do We Need in the Historical Sciences?

Changes in the methodology of the historical sciences make them more vulnerable to unjustifiable speculations being passed off as scientific results. The integrity of historical science is in peril due the way speculative and often unexamined causal assumptions are being used to generate data and underpin the identification of correlations in such data. A step toward a solution is to distinguish between plausible and speculative assumptions that facilitate the inference from measured and observed data to causal claims. One way to do that is by comparing these assumptions against a well-attested set of aspects of causation, such as the so-called "Bradford Hill Criteria" (BHC). The BHC do not provide a test for causation or necessary and sufficient conditions for causation but do indicate grounds for further investigation. By revising the BHC to reflect the needs and focus of historical sciences, it will be possible to assess the cogency of methods of investigation. These will be the Historical Sciences Bradford Hill Criteria (HSBHC). An application to one area in historical science is used to demonstrate the effectiveness of the HSBHC, namely biogeography. Four methods are assessed in order to show how the HSBHC can be used to examine the assumptions between our data and the causal biogeographical processes we infer.

Time, space and form: Necessary for causation in health, disease and intervention?

Sir Austin Bradford Hill's 'aspects of causation' represent some of the most influential thoughts on the subject of proximate causation in health and disease. Hill compiled a list of features that, when present and known, indicate an increasing likelihood that exposure to a factor causes-or contributes to the causation of-a disease. The items of Hill's list were not labelled 'criteria', as this would have inferred every item being necessary for causation. Hence, criteria that are necessary for causation in health, disease and intervention processes, whether known, knowable, or not, remain undetermined and deserve exploration. To move beyond this position, this paper aims to explore factors that are necessary in the constitution of causative relationships between health, disease processes, and intervention. To this end, disease is viewed as a causative pathway through the often overlapping stages of aetiology, pathology and patho-physiology. Intervention is viewed as a second, independent causative pathway, capable of causing changes in health for benefit or harm. For the natural course of a disease pathway to change, we argue that intervention must not only occupy the same time and space, but must also share a common form; the point at which the two pathways converge and interact. This improved conceptualisation may be used to facilitate the interpretation of clinical observations and inform future research, particularly enabling predictions of the mechanistic relationship between health, disease and intervention.

A review of epidemiologic studies of low-level exposures to organophosphorus insecticides in non-occupational populations.

This paper systematically reviews epidemiologic studies related to low-level non-occupational exposures to organophosphorus (OP) insecticides. Many of the studies evaluate levels of maternal OP metabolites and subsequent health outcomes in offspring. The studies focused primarily on birth outcomes (e.g., infant body weight or head circumference) and neurodevelopmental (e.g., mental and psychomotor) testing results. The evidence from these studies was reviewed under the Bradford Hill guidelines. Most of the studies assessing exposure based on urinary levels of OP insecticide metabolites used only one or two measurements during pregnancy. The potential for exposure misclassification with this method is largely due to (1) preformed metabolites that are ingested with food, (2) the short elimination half-life of OP insecticides, and (3) lack of specificity to particular OP insecticides for many of the metabolites. For birth outcomes, the majority of reported results are not statistically significant, and the associations are inconsistent within and across studies. There is more within-study consistency for some of the neurodevelopmental testing results, although few associations were examined across several studies. These associations are generally weak, have been replicated only to a limited extent, and require further confirmation before they can be considered established. The OP insecticide levels measured in the epidemiologic studies are too low to cause biologically meaningful acetylcholinesterase inhibition, the most widely used metric for OP insecticide toxicity. Overall, the available evidence does not establish that low-level exposures to OP insecticides cause adverse birth outcomes or neurodevelopmental problems in humans.