Proximate determinants and decomposition of changes in fertility levels across Nigeria regions: Evidence from Nigeria Demographic Health Survey, 2003-2018.

There is disparity in fertility level across the six geopolitical zones in Nigeria. Deeper uunderstanding about the drivers of fertility trends are necessary to prioritize zonal specific strategies for fertility reduction in Nigeria. Thus, this study examined the proximate determinants (PDs) of fertility and decomposed the change in its level across the six geo-political zones in Nigeria. Data from Nigeria Demographic and Health Surveys of 2003 and 2018 were analyzed. Fertility data were based on the report of full birth history from women of reproductive age. The Revised Bongaarts framework was used to estimate PDs and fertility levels. The contribution of each PDs to the observed changes in fertility levels was quantified using Das Gupta's five- factor decomposition method. The Total fertility rate (TFR) in 2003 and 2008 across the zones are South-South (5.04 vs 4.36), South-West (4.88 vs 4.26), North West (7.25 vs 6.85), North East (6.87 vs 6.54), North Central (5.72 vs 5.48), South East (5.06 vs 4.86), Nigeria (6.00 vs 5.59). Across the zones, there was a change in the fertility inhibiting effect of Contraception (Cc) between 2003 and 2018. The fertility inhibiting effect of Postpartum Infecundability (Ci) and Abortion was the highest and smallest respectively across the zones. Delayed sexual exposure (Cm) and contraceptive use (Cc) contributed the most to the change across the regions. The percentage contribution of Cm in South-South, South West, and South East was 87.04%, 52.89%, and 172.85% respectively. Furthermore, most of the fertility change observed in North Central was attributable to Cc. Abortion index was not an important inhibiting factor of fertility in Nigeria. Delayed sexual exposure and contraceptive use accounted for the largest change observed in fertility levels across the six geo-political zones in Nigeria between 2003 and 2018. Strategies that promote delayed sexual exposure, contraceptive use and breast feeding practices will enhance fertility transition in Nigeria.

Age at first marriage, age at first sex, family size preferences, contraception and change in fertility among women in Uganda: analysis of the 2006-2016 period.

BACKGROUND: Uganda's fertility was almost unchanging until the year 2006 when some reductions became visible. Compared to age at first marriage and contraceptive use, age at sexual debut and family size preferences are rarely examined in studies of fertility decline. In this study, we analyzed the contribution of age at first marriage, age at first sex, family size preferences and contraceptive use to change in fertility in Uganda between 2006 and 2016. METHODS: Using data from the 2006 and 2016 Uganda Demographic and Health Survey (UDHS), we applied a nonlinear multivariate decomposition technique to quantify the contribution of age at first marriage, age at first sex, family size preference and contraceptive use to the change in fertility observed during the 2006-2016 period. RESULTS: The findings indicate that 37 and 63% of the change in fertility observed between 2006 and 2016 was respectively associated with changing characteristics and changing fertility behavior of the women. Changes in proportion of women by; age at first marriage, age at first sex, family size preferences and contraceptive use were respectively associated with 20.6, 10.5 and 8.4% and 8.2% of the change in fertility but only fertility behavior resulting from age at first sex was significantly related to the change in fertility with a contribution of 43.5%. CONCLUSIONS: The study quantified the contribution of age at first marriage, age at first sex, family size preferences and contraceptive use to the change in fertility observed between 2006 and 2016. We highlight that of the four factors, only age at sexual debut made a significant contribution on the two components of the decomposition. There is need to address the low age at first sex, accessibility, demand for family planning services and youth-friendly family planning services to young unmarried women such that they can achieve their desired fertility. The contribution of other factors such as education attainment by women and place of residence and their relationship with changes in fertility calls for addressing if further reduction in fertility is to be realised.

Determinants of change in fertility pattern among women in Uganda during the period 2006-2011.

BACKGROUND: Studies on fertility in Uganda have attributed fertility reduction to a shift in the overall characteristics of women of reproductive age. It is not clear whether the reduction in fertility is due to changing socioeconomic and demographic characteristics over time or stems from the shifts in the reproductive behavior of women. In this paper we examine how fertility rates have changed between 2006 and 2011 and whether these changes have resulted from changing characteristics or from changing reproductive behavior of women. METHODS: Using the 2006 and 2011 Demographic and Health Survey data for Uganda, Multivariate Poisson Decomposition techniques were applied to evaluate observed changes in fertility. RESULTS: Changing characteristics of women aged 15-49 years significantly contributed to the overall change in fertility from 2006 to 2011. The change observed in older age at first marriage was the major contributor to the changes in fertility. The contribution that can be attributed to changes in reproductive behavior was not significant. CONCLUSIONS: This study finds that the major contribution to the reduction in fertility between 2006 and 2011 was from increased education and delayed marriage among women. Continued improvement in secondary school completion, will lead to older age at first marriage and will continue to be an important factor in Uganda's declining fertility rates.