Temperature is a regulator of leaf production in the family Dipterocarpaceae of equatorial Southeast Asia.

PREMISE: Leaf phenology is an essential developmental process in trees and an important component in understanding climate change. However, little is known about the regulation of leaf phenology in tropical trees. METHODS: To understand the regulation by temperature of leaf phenology in tropical trees, we performed daily observations of leaf production under rainfall-independent conditions using saplings of Shorea leprosula and Neobalanocarpus heimii, both species of Dipterocarpaceae, a dominant tree family of Southeast Asia. We analyzed the time-series data obtained using empirical dynamic modeling (EDM) and conducted growth chamber experiments. RESULTS: Leaf production by dipterocarps fluctuated in the absence of fluctuation in rainfall, and the peaks of leaf production were more frequent than those of day length, suggesting that leaf production cannot be fully explained by these environmental factors, although they have been proposed as regulators of leaf phenology in dipterocarps. Instead, EDM suggested a causal relationship between temperature and leaf production in dipterocarps. Leaf production by N. heimii saplings in chambers significantly increased when temperature was increased after long-term low-temperature treatment. This increase in leaf production was observed even when only nighttime temperature was elevated, suggesting that the effect of temperature on development is not mediated by photosynthesis. CONCLUSIONS: Because seasonal variation in temperature in the tropics is small, effects on leaf phenology have been overlooked. However, our results suggest that temperature is a regulator of leaf phenology in dipterocarps. This information will contribute to better understanding of the effects of climate change in the tropics.

Bottom-up linkages between primary production, zooplankton, and fish in a shallow, hypereutrophic lake.

Nutrient supply is a key bottom-up control of phytoplankton primary production in lake ecosystems. Top-down control via grazing pressure by zooplankton also constrains primary production and primary production may simultaneously affect zooplankton. Few studies have addressed these bidirectional interactions. We used convergent cross-mapping (CCM), a numerical test of causal associations, to quantify the presence and direction of the causal relationships among environmental variables (light availability, surface water temperature, NO3 -N, and PO4 -P), phytoplankton community composition, primary production, and the abundances of five functional zooplankton groups (large cladocerans, small cladocerans, rotifers, calanoids, and cyclopoids) in Lake Kasumigaura, a shallow, hypereutrophic lake in Japan. CCM suggested that primary production was causally influenced by NO3 -N and phytoplankton community composition; there was no detectable evidence of a causal effect of zooplankton on primary production. Our results also suggest that rotifers and cyclopoids were forced by primary production, and cyclopoids were further influenced by rotifers. However, our CCM suggested that primary production was weakly influenced by rotifers (i.e., bidirectional interaction). These findings may suggest complex linkages between nutrients, primary production, and rotifers and cyclopoids, a pattern that has not been previously detected or has been neglected. We used linear regression analysis to examine the relationships between the zooplankton community and pond smelt (Hypomesus nipponensis), the most abundant planktivore and the most important commercial fish species in Lake Kasumigaura. The relative abundance of pond smelt was significantly and positively correlated with the abundances of rotifers and cyclopoids, which were causally influenced by primary production. This finding suggests that bottom-up linkages between nutrient, primary production, and zooplankton abundance might be a key mechanism supporting high planktivore abundance in eutrophic lakes. Because increases in primary production and cyanobacteria blooms are likely to occur simultaneously in hypereutrophic lakes, our study highlights the need for ecosystem management to resolve the conflict between good water quality and high fishery production.

Associating frailty and dynamic dysregulation between motor and cardiac autonomic systems.

Frailty is a geriatric syndrome associated with the lack of physiological reserve and consequent adverse outcomes (therapy complications and death) in older adults. Recent research has shown associations between heart rate (HR) dynamics (HR changes during physical activity) with frailty. The goal of the present study was to determine the effect of frailty on the interconnection between motor and cardiac systems during a localized upper-extremity function (UEF) test. Fifty-six individuals aged 65 or above were recruited and performed the previously developed UEF test consisting of 20-s rapid elbow flexion with the right arm. Frailty was assessed using the Fried phenotype. Wearable gyroscopes and electrocardiography were used to measure motor function and HR dynamics. In this study, the interconnection between motor (angular displacement) and cardiac (HR) performance was assessed, using convergent cross-mapping (CCM). A significantly weaker interconnection was observed among pre-frail and frail participants compared to non-frail individuals (p < 0.01, effect size = 0.81 ± 0.08). Using logistic models, pre-frailty and frailty were identified with sensitivity and specificity of 82%-89%, using motor, HR dynamics, and interconnection parameters. Findings suggested a strong association between cardiac-motor interconnection and frailty. Adding CCM parameters in a multimodal model may provide a promising measure of frailty.

Coastal warming heightens direct impacts of seawater temperature on nutrients near aquaculture farms in Korea.

The potential roles of temperature and phytoplankton in nutrient cycling throughout the water column were investigated nearby aquaculture farms. Using the convergent cross mapping (CCM), we examined the relative strength of phytoplankton and temperature effects on nutrients. High δ15N values of particulate organic matter in the inner bay were detected compared to those in the outer bay. δ15N values >5 ‰ throughout the bay indicate that nitrogen influxes from the aquaculture farms are the critical nitrogen source in the study region. Our CCM models revealed that temperature positively and strongly affected the potential regeneration of nutrients, associated with PO43- while phytoplankton utilized nutrients as soon as available. The temperature-driven nutrient regeneration was higher in the bottom layer than that in the surface layer, indicating that temperature was a more important controlling factor in nutrient fluxes from the surface sediments.

Causality-based drought propagation analyses among meteorological drought, hydrologic drought, and water shortage.

Droughts propagate through the hydrologic cycle, leading to water deficiencies in various hydro-climate variables, such as rainfall, streamflow, soil moisture, and/or groundwater. Understanding drought propagation characteristics is an essential issue in water resources planning and management. This study aims to detect the causal relationships from meteorological drought to hydrologic drought and how these natural phenomena cause water shortage using CCM (convergent cross mapping). The causal influences among the SPI (standardized precipitation index), SSI (standardized streamflow index), and SWHI (standardized water shortage index) of the Nanhua Reservoir-Jiaxian Weir system located in southern Taiwan are identified based on 1960-2019 records. Since water shortages are influenced by reservoir operation models, three different models, the SOP (standard operating policy), RC (rule-curve-based model), and OPT (optimal hedging model), are considered in this study. The results reveal that clear and strong causality is observed between SPI and SSI for both watersheds. The causality of SSI-SWHI is stronger than that of SPI-SWHI, but both causalities are weaker than that of SPI-SSI. Among the three operation models, the no hedging SOP leads to the weakest causal links of SPI/SSI-SWHI, and the strongest causality is noted for OPT since the optimally derived hedging policy uses future hydrologic information. The CCM-based causal network of drought propagation reveals that the Nanhua Reservoir and Jiaxian Weir are equally important for water supplies since nearly identical causal strengths are observed in both watersheds.

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The convergent cross mapping (CCM) is a method to analyze causality of nonlinear time series variables. Different from the traditional linear system analysis method, CCM gets historical information based on their state space reconstruction. The presence of causality can be confirmed when the estimated values perform convergent with time series extension. Here, we introduced the develop-ment history of CCM and its advantages over the traditional Granger causality test, and elaborated the principle, algorithm process, and implementation approach. As a system analysis method aiming at the coupling relationship between variables from weak to moderate, CCM can effectively solve the complex causality among nonlinear multivariable in ecosystems. When it is applied to the causality analysis of multi-point time series variables with spatial information, the spatial autocorrelation among points should be fully considered and combined with the method that can remove the spatial correlation between variables and sequences, so as to ensure more accurate causality analysis using CCM and more convincing results.

Long-term characteristics of criteria air pollutants in megacities of Harbin-Changchun megalopolis, Northeast China: Spatiotemporal variations, source analysis, and meteorological effects.

The hourly concentration of six criteria air pollutants in the Harbin-Changchun region were used to investigate the status and spatiotemporal variation of target air pollutants and their relationships with meteorological factors. The annual concentrations of particulate matters during 2013-2017 were two times higher than the Chinese Ambient Air Quality Standards (CAAQS) Grade Ⅱ. The annual O3 concentration increased by two times during 2013-2018 in Harbin. The concentration of PM, SO2, NO2, and CO depicted a similar seasonal trend with an order of winter > autumn > spring > summer. The consistent interannual variation trends of PM2.5/CO, NO2 and SO2 indicated that the formation of secondary inorganic aerosols in the annual scale was dominated by the concentrations of NO2 and SO2. The interannual variations of the individual meteorological factors causing on PM2.5 and O3 during 2013-2018 varied significantly in seasonal scale. The interannual variations were stable in annual scale indicating that the continuous decline of PM2.5 during 2014-2018 can be attributed to the comprehensive and strict prohibition of small coal-fired boilers and straw burning in the study area. Meanwhile, the increase in O3 during 2013-2018 in the study area were mainly attributed to the rapid growth of the emission of its precursor (VOCs and NOx). The influence of meteorology on PM2.5 and ozone were the most stable and strongest in winter than that in the other three seasons.