Classifying disaster risk reduction strategies: conceptualizing and testing a novel integrated approach.

BACKGROUND: Although disaster risk reduction (DRR) addresses underlying causes and has been shown to be more cost-effective than other emergency management efforts, there is lack of systematized DRR categorization, leading to insufficient coherence in the terminology, planning, and implementation of DRR. The aim of this study was to conceptualize and test a novel integrated DRR framework that highlights the intersection between two existing classification systems. METHODS: Grounded theory was used to conceptualize a novel DRR framework. Next, deductive conceptual content analysis was used to categorize interventions from the 2019 Cities100 Report into the proposed DRR framework. The term "connection" indicates that an intervention can be categorized into a particular section of the novel integrated approach. A "connection" was determined to be present when the intervention description stated an explicit connection to health and to the concept within one of the categories from the novel approach. Further descriptive statistics were used to give insight into the distribution of DRR interventions across categories and into the application of the proposed framework. RESULTS: The resulting framework contains nine intersecting categories: "hazard, prospective", "hazard, corrective", "hazard, compensatory", "exposure, prospective", "exposure, corrective", "exposure, compensatory", "vulnerability, prospective", "vulnerability, corrective", and "vulnerability, compensatory". The thematic analysis elucidated trends and gaps in the types of interventions used within the 2019 Cities100 Report. For instance, exposure-prospective, exposure-compensatory, and vulnerability-compensatory were the most under-utilized strategies, accounting for only 3% of the total interventions. Further descriptive statistics showed that upper middle-income countries favored "hazard, corrective" strategies over other DRR categories while lower middle-income countries favored "exposure, corrective" over other DRR strategies. Finally, European cities had the highest percentage of DRR connections (51.39%) compared to the maximum possible DRR connections, while African cities had the lowest percentage of DRR connections (22.22%). CONCLUSIONS: The study suggests that the proposed DRR framework could potentially be used to systematically evaluate DRR interventions for missing elements, aiding in the design of more equitable and comprehensive DRR strategies.

How can the Sendai framework be implemented for disaster risk reduction and sustainable development? A qualitative study in Iran.

BACKGROUND: The Sendai Framework is the United Nations' most significant approach to reducing the risk of disasters from 2015 to 2030. This framework designed for all communities. However, communities should create operational and remedial strategies based on their unique circumstances. Considering the gaps in the implementation of Sendai framework strategies in Iran, as a developing country, the present study was designed. METHOD: This study was conducted by using a qualitative direct content analysis method to find out the expert's opinions on the implementation of the Sendai framework in Iran from 2021 to 2023. 35 experts in the focus group discussion and 9 experts in the interview were the participants of the study. RESULTS: Study findings were merged and reported as one main theme entitled Executive actions for implementing the Sendai Framework, four categories, and 37 codes. Eleven codes for the strategy of understanding disaster risk, 11 codes for the strategy of strengthening disaster risk governance to manage disaster risk, eight codes for the strategy of Investing in disaster risk reduction for resilience, and finally, seven codes for the strategy of enhancing disaster preparedness for effective response and to "Build Back Better" in recovery, rehabilitation, and reconstruction were identified as implementation solutions. CONCLUSION: The Sendai Framework has not provided any detailed implementation solutions because the countries' economic, social, level of development, etc., are different. The study's findings can be used as a guide for other developing countries.

Risk tolerance as a complementary concept to risk perception of natural hazards: A conceptual review and application.

There is a longstanding assumption that if people perceive a risk as high, they will act to reduce it. In fact, research has shown a lack of consistently strong causal relations between risk perception (RP) and mitigative behavior-the so-called "risk perception paradox." Despite a recent increase in research on RP, individuals' risk tolerance (RT; or demand for risk reduction) only rarely appears as a consideration for explaining behavioral response to natural hazards. To address this research gap, we first systematically review relevant literature and find that RT has been directly assessed or operationalized using perceived thresholds related to costs and benefits of risk reduction measures, risk consequences, hazard characteristics, behavioral responses, or affective reactions. It is either considered a component or a result of RP. We then use survey data of individuals' RP, RT, and behavioral intention to assess relations among these variables. Comparing across three European study sites, "behavioral intention" is assessed as the public's willingness to actively support the implementation of nature-based solutions to reduce disaster risk. A series of tests using regression models shows RT significantly explains variance in behavioral intention and significantly contributes additional explanatory power beyond RP in all three sites. In two sites, RT is also a significant partial mediator of the relation between RP and behavior. Taken together, our findings demand further conceptual and empirical research on individuals' RT and its systematic consideration as a determinant for (in)action in response to natural hazards.

'Forgotten crises' as forgotten sites of knowledge production for building lasting peace.

'Forgotten crises' constitute a permanent background to any present and future global humanitarian and development efforts. They represent a significant impediment to promoting lasting peace given concurrent catastrophes exacerbated by climate change. Yet, they are routinely neglected and remain unresolved. Building on critical and feminist approaches, this paper theorises them as forgotten sites of local knowledge production. It asks: what is local knowledge of and from forgotten crises? How can it be recovered and resignified, and what lessons can such knowledge provide at the global level? Drawing on examples from the intersections of conflict, disasters, and pandemics in the Philippines, the paper makes a case for valuing local knowledge arising from forgotten crises because of its potential contribution to adapting global humanitarian and development systems to address crises on multiple fronts. Such epistemic margins are generative of vantage points that can present a fuller account of how different crises interact and how best to respond to them.

Integrating science-based and local ecological knowledge: a case study of mangrove restoration and rehabilitation projects in the Philippines.

Mangrove forest is an ecosystem-based solution for disaster risk reduction in the Philippines, but its historical deforestation has hampered its capacity to protect coastal communities. With the increasing occurrence of storm surge in the Philippines, mangrove reforestation projects have received renewed attention, but many have failed. Community participation was deemed to be essential in those projects that did well. Hence, this paper examines successful mangrove restoration and rehabilitation projects in the Philippines to find out how community participation contributed to the accomplishments. The study found that while the transfer of science-based ecological knowledge from project managers to the community is an important factor in ensuring successful initial planning and implementation, its integration into existing local ecological knowledge-'localisation' of science-based ecological knowledge or hybrid ecological knowledge formation-helped to facilitate long-term community-based mangrove management beyond project duration by empowering community members and enabling project acceptance and ownership. Still, continuous local institutional support is a necessary anchor for community resilience.

Public Health Preparedness for Extreme Heat Events.

Heat is a dangerous hazard that causes acute heat illness, chronic disease exacerbations, adverse pregnancy outcomes, and a range of injuries. Risks are highest during extreme heat events (EHEs), which challenge the capacity of health systems and other critical infrastructure. EHEs are becoming more frequent and severe, and climate change is driving an increasing proportion of heat-related mortality, necessitating more investment in health protection. Climate-resilient health systems are better positioned for EHEs, and EHE preparedness is a form of disaster risk reduction. Preparedness activities commonly take the form of heat action plans (HAPs), with many examples at various administrative scales. HAP activities can be divided into primary prevention, most important in the pre-event phase; secondary prevention, key to risk reduction early in an EHE;and tertiary prevention, important later in the event phase. After-action reports and other postevent evaluation activities are central to adaptive management of this climate-sensitive hazard.

Lessons from the COVID-19 pandemic: Mortality impacts in Poland versus European Union.

With COVID-19 moving toward an endemic phase, it is worthwhile to identify lessons from the pandemic that can promote the effective strengthening of national health systems. We look at a single country, Poland, and compare it with the European Union (EU) to contrast approaches and outcomes. Among possible relevant indices, we examine characteristics of COVID-19-related mortality and excess all-cause mortality from March 2020 to February 2022. We demonstrate that both the numbers of COVID-related deaths and all-cause deaths in Poland were much higher than the EU average for most months in the study period. We juxtapose the percentage of fully vaccinated population and cumulative COVID-19 deaths per million people for EU Member States and show that typically higher vaccination rates are accompanied by lower mortality. We also show that, in addition to medical science, the use of a risk science toolbox would have been valuable in the management of the COVID-19 pandemic in Poland. Better and more widespread understanding of risk perception of the pandemic and the COVID-19 vaccines would have improved managing vaccine hesitancy, potentially leading to more effective pro-vaccination measures.

An agent-based model for evaluating reforms of the National Flood Insurance Program: A benchmarked model applied to Jamaica Bay, NYC.

Coastal flood risk is expected to increase as a result of climate change effects, such as sea level rise, and socioeconomic growth. To support policymakers in making adaptation decisions, accurate flood risk assessments that account for the influence of complex adaptation processes on the developments of risks are essential. In this study, we integrate the dynamic adaptive behavior of homeowners within a flood risk modeling framework. Focusing on building-level adaptation and flood insurance, the agent-based model (DYNAMO) is benchmarked with empirical data for New York City, USA. The model simulates the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) and frequently proposed reforms to evaluate their effectiveness. The model is applied to a case study of Jamaica Bay, NY. Our results indicate that risk-based premiums can improve insurance penetration rates and the affordability of insurance compared to the baseline NFIP market structure. While a premium discount for disaster risk reduction incentivizes more homeowners to invest in dry-floodproofing measures, it does not significantly improve affordability. A low interest rate loan for financing risk-mitigation investments improves the uptake and affordability of dry-floodproofing measures. The benchmark and sensitivity analyses demonstrate how the behavioral component of our model matches empirical data and provides insights into the underlying theories and choices that autonomous agents make.

How effective are community-based disaster reduction strategies? Evidence from the largest-scale program so far.

Strategies of community-based disaster risk reduction have been advocated for more than 2 decades. However, we still lack in-depth quantitative assessments of the effectiveness of such strategies. Our research is based on a national experiment in this domain: the "Comprehensive Disaster Reduction Demonstration Community" project, a governmental program running in China since 2007. Information on more than 11,000 demonstration communities was collected. Combined with the local disaster information and socioeconomic conditions, the spatiotemporal characteristics of these communities over 12 years and their differences in performance by region and income group were analyzed. We performed an attribution analysis for disaster risk reduction effectiveness. This is the first time a series of quantitative evaluation methods have been applied to verify the effectiveness of a large-scale community-based disaster risk reduction project, both from the perspective of demonstrative effects and loss reduction benefits. Here, we find that the project is obviously effective from these two perspectives, and the disaster loss reduction effectiveness illustrates clear regional differences, where the regional economic level and hazard severity act as important drivers. Significant differences of urban-rural and income call for matching fortification measures, and the dynamic management of demonstration community size is required, since the loss reduction benefit converges when the penetration rate of the demonstration community reaches approximately 4% in a province. These and further results provide diverse implications for community-based disaster risk reduction policies and practices.

Investigating the impact of a community disaster awareness training on subjective disaster preparedness: the case of Myanmar's Ayeyarwaddy region.

This paper investigates the impact of a community disaster awareness training on subjective disaster preparedness, focusing on the case of a Republic of Korean aid-supported disaster risk reduction project in the Ayeyarwaddy region of Myanmar. A subsequent survey by the authors of a total of 182 households, an equal number of project participating and control households, produced encouraging results regarding the endeavour. Although both ordinal logistic regression and ordinary least squares models support overall robust effectiveness of participating in the project, the results also reveal different effects of specific activities. Disaster risk reduction (DRR) awareness meetings and trainings, and personal visits to share knowledge and/or to distribute informative flyers, are important. In contrast, the significance of drills or community activities, in mass, is lost in a combined model. Consequently, 'personalising risk' should be prioritised in any DRR undertaking, as well as, and in particular, development cooperation aimed at increasing confidence in disaster preparedness.

Understanding the impacts of floods on learning quality, school facilities, and educational recovery in Indonesia.

This research is among the first pieces of work to use the comprehensive school safety (CSS) framework to assess the impacts of floods on quality learning and education infrastructure. The CSS framework is employed here to identify the level of disruption to education services following floods in Jakarta, Indonesia, in 2013. The paper poses three key questions, concerning: (i) disruption to children's access to quality education during the flood emergency in 2013 and the early recovery phase; (ii) the impact of the floods on a school's physical infrastructure; and (iii) the effectiveness and level of success of the 2013 flood responses by relevant stakeholders. Combining quantitative and qualitative strategies, the paper examines the experiences of 100 schools in Jakarta. The findings suggest that the CSS framework offers a more nuanced approach to assessing post-disaster education needs. Moreover, it is also relevant for examining the relationship between the COVID-19 pandemic and relative losses in the education sector.

Exploring Indigenous and Local Knowledge and Practices (ILKPs) in Traditional Jhum Cultivation for Localizing Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs): A Case Study from Zunheboto District of Nagaland, India.

Globally, shifting cultivation is known to be an important driver of tropical deforestation. However, in this paper, we argue that it can be sustainably managed if the environmental boundary conditions, laid by the traditional customs and practices, are fully respected. We narrate an empirical study from the Zunheboto district of Nagaland, India, where we deployed a mixed research method to explore the Indigenous and Local Knowledge and Practices (ILKPs) associated with shifting cultivation (aka Jhum), particularly concerning farm-level practices, forest and biodiversity conservation, and disaster risk reduction measures. The research method included analysis of primary data obtained through Focus Group discussions (FGDs), key informant interviews (n = 21), and a questionnaire survey (n = 153) with Jhum farmers from two different age groups, i.e., below 50 years (middle-aged farmers) and above 50 years (older farmers). From the qualitative inquiry, we identified 15 ILKPs, which were then validated from survey responses. We used the Mann-Whitney U test to examine differences in agreement between two groups of framers. Based on this analysis, we conclude that upholding of the ILKPs holds strong potential for the local implementation of several Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), particularly, SDG-1(No poverty), SDG-2 (Zero hunger), and SDG-15 (Life on land). However, eight of the identified ILKPs showed a statistically significant difference between older and middle-aged farmers, underlining a declining trend. Finally, we suggest suitable policy measures to mainstream ILKPs to balance the trade-offs in food production and biodiversity conservation, and to ensure the future sustainability of Jhum cultivation in the region and beyond.

Climate-Change-Induced Weather Events and Implications for Urban Water Resource Management in the Free State Province of South Africa.

Current climate projections for Southern Africa indicate an increase in the incidence of extreme weather events in the future. Even though South Africa does not rank among the highest on the world multi-hazard index list, the country is prone to multiple climate-related extreme events which pose substantial human and ecological impacts. Consequently, such climate extremes have serious negative effects on regional water resources, public health, biodiversity, food security, natural systems, and infrastructure. The main aim of this study is to review the literature on climate-change-induced weather events and the implications for urban water resource management in South Africa particularly focusing on QwaQwa. The study reviewed 122 documents which include books, peer-reviewed articles, conference papers, newspaper articles, institutional and government reports, and one news broadcast video. Findings revealed that QwaQwa experiences increasing water challenges as demand for water increases and both quantity and quality decrease to critical levels. This study, therefore, provides preliminary suggestions of strategies to build resilience in this climate change context, such as investment in climate-resilient water infrastructure, effective and transparent management of public resources with accountability, strengthening resilience through addressing poverty and marginalisation, nature-based solutions, and education and awareness. Furthermore, conducting hazard, exposure, and resilience analyses is necessary in order to inform the development of relevant disaster risk reduction strategies. The findings contribute to the literature on climate change impacts on water resource planning in South Africa and similar climate change contexts. The findings could; therefore, be valuable to researchers and applied practitioners such as policymakers, water resource management professionals, and urban planners.

Transformative adaptation through nature-based solutions: a comparative case study analysis in China, Italy, and Germany.

This paper explores how claims for transformative adaptation toward more equitable and sustainable societies can be assessed. We build on a theoretical framework describing transformative adaptation as it manifests across four core elements of the public-sector adaptation lifecycle: vision, planning, institutional frameworks, and interventions. For each element, we identify characteristics that can help track adaptation as transformative. Our purpose is to identify how governance systems can constrain or support transformative choices and thus enable targeted interventions. We demonstrate and test the usefulness of the framework with reference to three government-led adaptation projects of nature-based solutions (NBS): river restoration (Germany), forest conservation (China), and landslide risk reduction (Italy). Building on a desktop study and open-ended interviews, our analysis adds evidence to the view that transformation is not an abrupt system change, but a dynamic complex process that evolves over time. While each of the NBS cases fails to fulfill all the transformation characteristics, there are important transformative elements in their visions, planning, and interventions. There is a deficit, however, in the transformation of institutional frameworks. The cases show institutional commonalities in multi-scale and cross-sectoral (polycentric) collaboration as well as innovative processes for inclusive stakeholder engagement; yet, these arrangements are ad hoc, short-term, dependent on local champions, and lacking the permanency needed for upscaling. For the public sector, this result highlights the potential for establishing cross-competing priorities among agencies, cross-sectoral formal mechanisms, new dedicated institutions, and programmatic and regulatory mainstreaming. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10113-023-02066-7.

Are you prepared for the next storm? Developing social norms messages to motivate community members to perform disaster risk mitigation behaviors.

Preparing for natural disasters and adapting to climate change can save lives. Yet, minimal research has examined how governments can motivate community members to prepare for disasters (e.g., purchasing flood insurance or installing water barriers in homes for floods and hurricanes). Instead, studies have focused on how to communicate actions individuals should take during disasters, rather than before disasters. This study develops messages targeting social norms, which are promising approaches to motivate community members to adopt disaster risk preparedness and mitigation behaviors. Specifically, we developed a variety of messages integrating descriptive norms (i.e., what others do), injunctive norms (i.e., what others believe should be done), and a social norms-based fear appeal, or social disapproval rationale (i.e., a negative social result of [not] taking behaviors). Then, we tested these messages through two between-subject factorial online experiments in flood- and hurricane-prone U.S. states with adult samples (N = 2,286). In experiment 1 (i.e., purchasing flood insurance), the injunctive norms message using weather forecasters and the social disapproval rationale message significantly increased social norms perceptions, which in turn influenced behavioral intentions. In experiment 2 (i.e., installing water barriers), the injunctive norms message using weather forecasters, the injunctive norms message using neighbors, and the social disapproval rationale message significantly increased social norms perceptions, which in turn influenced mitigation intentions. However, the descriptive social norms message was not effective in increasing social norms perceptions. We provide some of the first empirical evidence on how organizations' risk communication can empower community members to prepare and mitigate the impact of disasters.

'Building back better' is neoliberal post-disaster reconstruction.

'Building back better' (BBB) has become one of the most common expressions in disaster risk reduction. Disasters offer an opportunity to encourage improvements not only in the structural safety of buildings and infrastructure, but also in addressing structural inequalities and injustice. Consequently, they are an opportunity to make things 'better'. However, in the context of neoliberalism, the definition of 'better' does not always mean 'good for all'. We argue here that BBB allows for widely varied definitions of what is and what is not a risk, who is and is not responsible, and what forms of action are to be taken in response to these dangers. This serves as a designation for capacity to make 'better', but not actively change, social and political systems that initially create risk. Disasters and its terminology, therefore, are not ideologically neutral and should thus be deliberately unpacked and critically evaluated rather than accepted unquestioned.

The transition from development and disaster risk reduction to humanitarian relief: the case of Yemen during high-intensity conflict.

Discussions on how humanitarian aid and disaster responses can link better with development and disaster risk reduction (DRR) have occurred for decades. However, the reverse transition, from development to relief, is still poorly understood. Using the case of Yemen, this study analyses whether and how development and DRR activities adapted to the emerging humanitarian crisis when conflict escalated in the country. It concentrates on governance strategies, actors, challenges, and opportunities at the nexus of development, disaster, and humanitarian responses. Semi-structured interviews and focus-group discussions with aid and societal actors were conducted remotely and in Jordan. The findings show gaps in knowledge and coordination in the movement from development and DRR to relief, but also reveal spaces and opportunities to advance towards enhanced integration of action before, during, and after an emergency. This paper contributes to the literature on this nexus and critically argues for a more integrated approach to conflicts and disasters.

Reflections on implementing the Sendai Framework in the Asia-Pacific: beyond adding disability inclusion to disaster risk reduction.

Following the adoption of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030, an increasing number of disability-inclusive disaster risk reduction (DiDRR) projects have been implemented by disaster risk reduction (DRR) organisations together with organisations of persons with disabilities (OPDs). Yet, as this paper argues, the general approach of DiDRR is still predominantly based on a DRR perspective. Consequently, the OPDs involved in DiDRR often include additional project components to address their broader issues while also implementing DRR. This paper draws on the experiences of two pioneer DiDRR programmes: the Community Resilience Programme in the Philippines from 2015-18; and the Putting Sendai Framework into Action programme in the Asia-Pacific from 2017-20. It outlines the differences between the viewpoints of DRR organisations and OPDs on implementing DiDRR. In conclusion, the paper suggests that DiDRR initiatives should accommodate the broader disability issues raised by OPDs to achieve more meaningful disability inclusion in DRR.

Post-conflict disaster governance in Nepal: one-door policy, multiple-window practice.

The response to the earthquakes in Nepal on 25 April and 12 May 2015 was as overwhelming as the magnitude of the events themselves. Tensions between the humanitarian imperative and the post-conflict state-building agenda soon became evident. Many actors offered support by creatively complying with the state's approach, whereas others bypassed official channels completely. In post-conflict settings such as Nepal, the situation is especially complicated because of the contradiction between policies underscoring the importance of the state in the response and the reality of the fragility of the state, which often leads to the significant involvement of aid organisations. The post-conflict political landscape of Nepal shaped the contours of the response, as well as how actors decided to operate within them. This paper, based on empirical findings from four months of research, contributes to a better understanding of the intricacies of the post-conflict and post-disaster nexus in the context of a state-led response.

Returning to normal? 'Building back better' in the Dominican education system after Tropical Storm Erika and Hurricane Maria.

Child-centred disaster risk reduction aims to reduce child vulnerability and increase resilience to disasters. The 2015 Comprehensive School Safety Framework (CSSF) sought to decrease hazard risks to education. Between 2015 and 2017, Dominica was struck by Tropical Storm Erika and Hurricane Maria, which significantly affected the education system at the local and national scales. Since Maria, a couple of national initiatives (Safer Schools and Smart Schools) have been introduced to increase resilience and meet the CSSF's objectives. This paper assesses progress made through a qualitative analysis of interviews with 29 school leaders, government officials, and disaster risk reduction stakeholders. Implementation of the climate resilience programme in 2018 resulted in nationwide teacher training and production of school disaster plans. Limited successes have improved social resilience, but short-term implementation due to COVID-19 and a lack of a teacher knowledge base have presented challenges to the scheme's long-term sustainability and the implementation of the CSSF's goals.