How biotic interactions structure species' responses to perturbations.

Predicting how ecological communities will respond to disturbances is notoriously challenging, especially given the variability in species' responses within the same community. Focusing solely on aggregate responses may obscure extinction risks for certain species owing to compensatory effects, emphasizing the need to understand the drivers of the response variability at the species level. Yet, these drivers remain poorly understood. Here, we reveal that despite the typical complexity of biotic interaction networks, species' responses follow a discernible pattern. Specifically, we demonstrate that the species whose population abundances are most reduced by biotic interactions-which are not always the rarest species-are those that exhibit the strongest responses to disturbances. This insight enables us to pinpoint sensitive species within communities without requiring precise information about biotic interactions. Our novel approach introduces avenues for future research aimed at identifying sensitive species and elucidating their impacts on entire communities.

Predicting emergent animal biodiversity patterns across multiple scales.

Restoring biodiversity-based resilience and ecosystem multi-functionality needs to be informed by more accurate predictions of animal biodiversity responses to environmental change. Ecological models make a substantial contribution to this understanding, especially when they encode the biological mechanisms and processes that give rise to emergent patterns (population, community, ecosystem properties and dynamics). Here, a distinction between 'mechanistic' and 'process-based' ecological models is established to review existing approaches. Mechanistic and process-based ecological models have made key advances to understanding the structure, function and dynamics of animal biodiversity, but are typically designed to account for specific levels of biological organisation and spatiotemporal scales. Cross-scale ecological models, which predict emergent co-occurring biodiversity patterns at interacting scales of space, time and biological organisation, is a critical next step in predictive ecology. A way forward is to first capitalise on existing models to systematically evaluate the ability of scale-explicit mechanisms and processes to predict emergent patterns at alternative scales. Such model intercomparisons will reveal mechanism to process transitions across fine to broad scales, overcome approach-specific barriers to model realism or tractability and identify gaps which necessitate the development of new fundamental principles. Key challenges surrounding model complexity and uncertainty would need to be addressed, and while opportunities from big data can streamline the integration of multiple scale-explicit biodiversity patterns, ambitious cross-scale field studies are also needed. Crucially, overcoming cross-scale ecological modelling challenges would unite disparate fields of ecology with the common goal of improving the evidence-base to safeguard biodiversity and ecosystems under novel environmental change.

A flexible consistent framework for modelling multiple interacting environmental responses to management in space and time.

Management of resources is often a large-scale task addressed using many small-scale interventions. The range of scales at which organisms respond to those interventions, along with the many outcomes which management aims to achieve can make determining the success of management complex. Environmental flow is an example of management where there is a recognized need for managers to demonstrate the impact of their actions by integrating different types of environmental responses. Here, we aim to support decision making in environmental management via the development of a new modelling framework (eFlowEval). It has the capacity to capture best-available knowledge, to scale it in space and time, explore interactions among species, compare scenarios, and account for uncertainty. Thus, it provides a basis for including multiple target groups in a common system. The framework is readily updatable as new information becomes available and can identify where data are insufficient to be scientifically robust. We demonstrate the eFlowEval framework using three very different environmental responses: 1) metabolism, which is a measure of the energy produced and then used in an ecosystem, 2) favorability for a bird species of interest (royal spoonbill Platalea regia), and 3) competing wetland plants (Centipeda cunninghamii and lippia Phyla canescens). These demonstrations illustrate the capability of the eFlowEval framework but the specific outputs shown here should not be used to assess environmental responses to management. Using these demonstrations, we illustrate the capacity of the eFlowEval framework to provide assessments across a range of scales (local to landscape) and from short time frames (weeks to months) to multi-year assessments. Further, we illustrate the ability to: i) scale responses from local to basin scales, ii) vary driver-response model types, iii) represent uncertainty, iv) compare scenarios, v) accommodate variable parameter values at different locations, and vi) incorporate spatial and temporal dependencies and dependencies among species. We also illustrate the framework's ability to capture inter- and intraspecific interactions and their impact in space and time. The eFlowEval framework extends the capacity of the component response models to provide novel modeling capabilities for management at scale. It allows for interactions among species or processes to be incorporated, as well as in space and time. A large degree of flexibility is offered by the framework, in terms of driver-response model types, input data, and aggregation methods. Thus, the eFlowEval framework provides a mechanism to enhance the transparency of environmental watering decision making, capture institutional knowledge, enhance adaptive management and undertake evaluation of the impact of environmental watering at a range of spatial and temporal scales.

A gradual migratory divide determines not only the direction of migration but also migration strategy of a social migrant bird.

Migratory divides separate populations of migratory animals, facilitating the evolution of intraspecific differences in migration strategies. Migration strategies are expected to be different for birds using different flyways and environments, but the knowledge regarding the impact of the flyway on individual migration strategies is scarce. By using satellite tracking and neckband resightings, we reveal the existence and structure of a gradual migratory divide between two European flyway populations of greylag geese Anser anser. Birds breeding at the far end of the Gulf of Bothnia in the Baltic Sea coast use the Western Flyway, those breeding in the Gulf of Finland the Central Flyway and those breeding between these extremes scatter to the two flyways. By using Gaussian process modelling, we show that migration strategies differed between the flyways. The birds using the Western Flyway migrated earlier in autumn, performed longer annual migration and made a clear stopover during migration, whereas the birds using the Central Flyway flew directly to their wintering sites. The gradual migratory divide that also divides migration strategies provides insights into migratory divides on birds with learned migration. Distinct migration strategies in different flyways provide exciting possibilities to further study the factors driving migration strategies.

Future supply of boreal forest ecosystem services is driven by management rather than by climate change.

Forests provide a wide variety of ecosystem services (ES) to society. The boreal biome is experiencing the highest rates of warming on the planet and increasing demand for forest products. To foresee how to maximize the adaptation of boreal forests to future warmer conditions and growing demands of forest products, we need a better understanding of the relative importance of forest management and climate change on the supply of ecosystem services. Here, using Finland as a boreal forest case study, we assessed the potential supply of a wide range of ES (timber, bilberry, cowberry, mushrooms, carbon storage, scenic beauty, species habitat availability and deadwood) given seven management regimes and four climate change scenarios. We used the forest simulator SIMO to project forest dynamics for 100 years into the future (2016-2116) and estimate the potential supply of each service using published models. Then, we tested the relative importance of management and climate change as drivers of the future supply of these services using generalized linear mixed models. Our results show that the effects of management on the future supply of these ES were, on average, 11 times higher than the effects of climate change across all services, but greatly differed among them (from 0.53 to 24 times higher for timber and cowberry, respectively). Notably, the importance of these drivers substantially differed among biogeographical zones within the boreal biome. The effects of climate change were 1.6 times higher in northern Finland than in southern Finland, whereas the effects of management were the opposite-they were three times higher in the south compared to the north. We conclude that new guidelines for adapting forests to global change should account for regional differences and the variation in the effects of climate change and management on different forest ES.

Climate-ecosystem modelling made easy: The Land Sites Platform.

Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs) provide a state-of-the-art process-based approach to study the complex interplay between vegetation and its physical environment. For example, they help to predict how terrestrial plants interact with climate, soils, disturbance and competition for resources. We argue that there is untapped potential for the use of DGVMs in ecological and ecophysiological research. One fundamental barrier to realize this potential is that many researchers with relevant expertize (ecology, plant physiology, soil science, etc.) lack access to the technical resources or awareness of the research potential of DGVMs. Here we present the Land Sites Platform (LSP): new software that facilitates single-site simulations with the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator, an advanced DGVM coupled with the Community Land Model. The LSP includes a Graphical User Interface and an Application Programming Interface, which improve the user experience and lower the technical thresholds for installing these model architectures and setting up model experiments. The software is distributed via version-controlled containers; researchers and students can run simulations directly on their personal computers or servers, with relatively low hardware requirements, and on different operating systems. Version 1.0 of the LSP supports site-level simulations. We provide input data for 20 established geo-ecological observation sites in Norway and workflows to add generic sites from public global datasets. The LSP makes standard model experiments with default data easily achievable (e.g., for educational or introductory purposes) while retaining flexibility for more advanced scientific uses. We further provide tools to visualize the model input and output, including simple examples to relate predictions to local observations. The LSP improves access to land surface and DGVM modelling as a building block of community cyberinfrastructure that may inspire new avenues for mechanistic ecosystem research across disciplines.

Evolution of prudent predation in complex food webs.

Prudent predators catch sufficient prey to sustain their populations but not as much as to undermine their populations' survival. The idea that predators evolve to be prudent has been dismissed in the 1970s, but the arguments invoked then are untenable in the light of modern evolution theory. The evolution of prudent predation has repeatedly been demonstrated in two-species predator-prey metacommunity models. However, the vigorous population fluctuations that these models predict are not widely observed. Here we show that in complex model food webs prudent predation evolves as a result of consumer-mediated ('apparent') competitive exclusion of resources, which disadvantages aggressive consumers and does not generate such fluctuations. We make testable predictions for empirical signatures of this mechanism and its outcomes. Then we discuss how these predictions are borne out across freshwater, marine and terrestrial ecosystems. Demonstrating explanatory power of evolved prudent predation well beyond the question of predator-prey coexistence, the predicted signatures explain unexpected declines of invasive alien species, the shape of stock-recruitment relations of fish, and the clearance rates of pelagic consumers across the latitudinal gradient and 15 orders of magnitude in body mass. Specific research to further test this theory is proposed.

Biodiversity underpins fisheries resilience to exploitation in the Amazon river basin.

Inland fisheries feed greater than 150 million people globally, yet their status is rarely assessed due to their socio-ecological complexity and pervasive lack of data. Here, we leverage an unprecedented landings time series from the Amazon, Earth's largest river basin, together with theoretical food web models to examine (i) taxonomic and trait-based signatures of exploitation in inland fish landings and (ii) implications of changing biodiversity for fisheries resilience. In both landings time series and theory, we find that multi-species exploitation of diverse inland fisheries results in a hump-shaped landings evenness curve. Along this trajectory, abundant and large species are sequentially replaced with faster growing and smaller species. Further theoretical analysis indicates that harvests can be maintained for a period of time but that continued biodiversity depletion reduces the pool of compensating species and consequently diminishes fisheries resilience. Critically, higher fisheries biodiversity can delay fishery collapse. Although existing landings data provide an incomplete snapshot of long-term dynamics, our results suggest that multi-species exploitation is affecting freshwater biodiversity and eroding fisheries resilience in the Amazon. More broadly, we conclude that trends in landings evenness could characterize multi-species fisheries development and aid in assessing their sustainability.

Multi-model projections of tree species performance in Quebec, Canada under future climate change.

Many modelling approaches have been developed to project climate change impacts on forests. By analysing 'comparable' yet distinct variables (e.g. productivity, growth, dominance, biomass, etc.) through different structures, parameterizations and assumptions, models can yield different outcomes to rather similar initial questions. This variability can lead to some confusion for forest managers when developing strategies to adapt forest management to climate change. In this study, we standardized results from seven different models (Habitat suitability, trGam, StandLEAP, Quebec Landscape Dynamics, PICUS, LANDIS-II and LPJ-LMfire) to provide a simple and comprehensive assessment of the uncertainty and consensus in future performance (decline, status quo, improvement) for six tree species in Quebec under two radiative forcing scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5). Despite a large diversity of model types, we found a high level of agreement (73.1%) in projected species' performance across species, regions, scenarios and time periods. Low agreements in model outcomes resulted from small dissensions among models. Model agreement was much higher for cold-tolerant species (up to 99.9%), especially in southernmost forest regions and under RCP 8.5, indicating that these species are especially sensitive to increased climate forcing in the southern part of their distribution range. Lower agreement was found for thermophilous species (sugar maple, yellow birch) in boreal regions under RCP 8.5 mostly as a result of the way the different models are handling natural disturbances (e.g. wildfires) and lags in the response of populations (forest inertia or migration capability) to climate change. Agreement was slightly higher under high anthropogenic climate forcing, suggesting that important thresholds in species-specific performance might be crossed if radiative forcing reach values as high as those projected under RCP 8.5. We expect that strong agreement among models despite their different assumptions, predictors and structure should inspire the development of forest management strategies to be better adapted to climate change.

The evolutionary history of Cardamine bulbifera shows a successful rapid postglacial Eurasian range expansion in the absence of sexual reproduction.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Sexual reproduction is known to drive plant diversification and adaptation. Here we investigate the evolutionary history and spatiotemporal origin of a dodecaploid (2n = 12x = 96) Eurasian deciduous woodland species, Cardamine bulbifera, which reproduces and spreads via vegetative bulb-like structures only. The species has been among the most successful range-expanding understorey woodland plants in Europe, which raises the question of the genetic architecture of its gene pool, since its hexaploid (2n = 6x = 48) but putatively outcrossing closest relative, C. quinquefolia, displays a smaller distribution range in Eastern Europe towards the Caucasus region. Cardamine bulbifera belongs to a small monophyletic clade of four species comprising also C. abchasica (2n = 2x = 16) and C. bipinnata (unknown ploidy) from the Caucasus region. METHODS: We sequenced the genomes of the two polyploids and their two putative ancestors using Illumina short-read sequencing technology (×7-8 coverage). Covering the entire distribution range, genomic data were generated for 67 samples of the two polyploids (51 samples of C. bulbifera, 16 samples of C. quinquefolia) and 6 samples of the putative diploid taxa (4 samples of C. abchasica, 2 samples of C. bipinnata) to unravel the evolutionary origin of the polyploid taxa using phylogenetic reconstructions of biparentally and maternally inherited genetic sequence data. Ploidy levels of C. bulbifera and C. quinquefolia were analysed by comparative chromosome painting. We used genetic assignment analysis (STRUCTURE) and approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) modelling to test whether C. bulbifera represents genetically differentiated lineages and addressed the hypothesis of its hybrid origin. Comparative ecological modelling was applied to unravel possible niche differentiation among the two polyploid species. KEY RESULTS: Cardamine bulbifera was shown to be a non-hybridogenous, auto-dodecaploid taxon of early Pleistocene origin, but with a history of past gene flow with its hexaploid sister species C. quinquefolia, likely during the last glacial maximum in shared refuge areas in Eastern Europe towards Western Turkey and the Crimean Peninsula region. The diploid Caucasian endemic C. abchasica is considered an ancestral species, which also provides evidence for the origin of the species complex in the Caucasus region. Cardamine bulbifera successfully expanded its distribution range postglacially towards Central and Western Europe accompanied by a transition to exclusively vegetative propagation. CONCLUSIONS: A transition to vegetative propagation in C. bulbifera is hypothesized as the major innovation to rapidly expand its distribution range following postglacially progressing woodland vegetation throughout Europe. Preceding and introgressive gene flow from its sister species C. quinquefolia in the joint refuge area is documented. This transition and ecological differentiation may have been triggered by preceding introgressive gene flow from its sister species in the joint East European refuge areas.

Ecosystem services provision by Mediterranean forests will be compromised above 2℃ warming.

Forests provide a wide range of provisioning, regulating and cultural services of great value to societies across the Mediterranean basin. In this study, we reviewed the scientific literature of the last 30 years to quantify the magnitude of projected changes in ecosystem services provision by Mediterranean forests under IPCC climate change scenarios. We classified the scenarios according to the temperature threshold of 2℃ set by the Paris Agreement (below or above). The review of 78 studies shows that climate change will lead to a general reduction in the provision of regulating services (e.g. carbon storage, regulation of freshwater quantity and quality) and a general increase in the number of fires, burnt areas and generally, an increase in climate-related forest hazards (median + 62% by 2100). Studies using scenarios above the 2℃ threshold projected significantly more negative changes in regulating services than studies using scenarios below this threshold. Main projected trend changes on material services (e.g. wood products), were less clear and depended on (i) whether or not the studies considered the interaction between the rise in temperatures and other drivers (e.g. forest management, CO2 fertilization) and (ii) differences in productivity responses across the tree species evaluated. Overall, the reviewed studies projected significant reductions in range extent and habitat suitability for the most drought-sensitive forest species (e.g. -88% Fagus sylvatica), while the amount of habitat available for more drought-tolerant species will remain stable or increase; however, the magnitude of projected change for these more xeric species was limited when high-end extreme climatic scenarios were considered (above Paris Agreement). Our review highlights the benefits that climate change mitigation (to keep global mean temperature increase <2℃) can bring in terms of service provision and conservation of Mediterranean forests.

Effects of future climate change on birch abundance and their pollen load.

Climate change impacts on the structure and function of ecosystems will worsen public health issues like allergic diseases. Birch trees (Betula spp.) are important sources of aeroallergens in Central and Northern Europe. Birches are vulnerable to climate change as these trees are sensitive to increased temperatures and summer droughts. This study aims to examine the effect of climate change on airborne birch pollen concentrations in Central Europe using Bavaria in Southern Germany as a case study. Pollen data from 28 monitoring stations in Bavaria were used in this study, with time series of up 30 years long. An integrative approach was used to model airborne birch pollen concentrations taking into account drivers influencing birch tree abundance and birch pollen production and projections made according to different climate change and socioeconomic scenarios. Birch tree abundance is projected to decrease in parts of Bavaria at different rates, depending on the climate scenario, particularly in current centres of the species distribution. Climate change is expected to result in initial increases in pollen load but, due to the reduction in birch trees, the amount of airborne birch pollen will decrease at lower altitudes. Conversely, higher altitude areas will experience expansions in birch tree distribution and subsequent increases in airborne birch pollen in the future. Even considering restrictions for migration rates, increases in pollen load are likely in Southwestern areas, where positive trends have already been detected during the last three decades. Integrating models for the distribution and abundance of pollen sources and the drivers that control birch pollen production allowed us to model airborne birch pollen concentrations in the future. The magnitude of changes depends on location and climate change scenario.

Distinct interspecific and intraspecific vulnerability of coastal species to global change.

Characterising and predicting species responses to anthropogenic global change is one of the key challenges in contemporary ecology and conservation. The sensitivity of marine species to climate change is increasingly being described with forecasted species distributions, yet these rarely account for population level processes such as genomic variation and local adaptation. This study compares inter- and intraspecific patterns of biological composition to determine how vulnerability to climate change, and its environmental drivers, vary across species and populations. We compare species trajectories for three ecologically important southern African marine invertebrates at two time points in the future, both at the species level, with correlative species distribution models, and at the population level, with gradient forest models. Reported range shifts are species-specific and include both predicted range gains and losses. Forecasted species responses to climate change are strongly influenced by changes in a suite of environmental variables, from sea surface salinity and sea surface temperature, to minimum air temperature. Our results further suggest a mismatch between future habitat suitability (where species can remain in their ecological niche) and genomic vulnerability (where populations retain their genomic composition), highlighting the inter- and intraspecific variability in species' sensitivity to global change. Overall, this study demonstrates the importance of considering species and population level climatic vulnerability when proactively managing coastal marine ecosystems in the Anthropocene.

Recent hybrid speciation at the origin of the narrow endemic Pulmonaria helvetica.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Hybridization is known to drive plant speciation through the establishment of homoploid or allopolyploid hybrid species. Here we investigate the origin of Pulmonaria helvetica, a narrow endemic species described across a restricted area of Switzerland that was entirely covered by ice during the last glacial maximum. This species presents an original number of chromosomes (2n = 24) and morphological traits suggestive of a hybrid origin. METHODS: We sequenced a plastid locus and 1077 double-digest restriction-site-associated DNA (ddRAD) loci in 67 individuals from across the distribution range of P. helvetica and candidate progenitor species growing in the same area. Assignment of genotypes to main genetic clusters within and among taxa using STRUCTURE tested whether P. helvetica represents a genetically differentiated lineage and addressed the hypothesis of its hybrid origin. Comparative ecological modelling further addressed possible niche differentiation among taxa. KEY RESULTS: Pulmonaria helvetica was highlighted as a genetically homogeneous species distinct from co-occurring taxa. Consistent with a scenario of hybrid speciation, it presented clear evidence of balanced admixture between Pulmonaria officinalis (2n = 16) and Pulmonaria mollis s.l. (2n = 18, 22), which was also highlighted as a maternal progenitor based on plastid sequences. Limited genetic structure within the maternal progenitor is consistent with an origin of P. helvetica through either homoploid hybridization with considerable karyotype changes or via complex scenarios of allopolyploidy involving a dysploid taxon of P. mollis s.l. Comparative niche modelling indicated non-significant ecological differences between P. helvetica and its progenitors, supporting intrinsic factors resulting from hybridization as main drivers of speciation. CONCLUSIONS: Hybridization appears as a major process having promoted the postglacial origin of the narrow endemic P. helvetica, suggesting hybrid speciation as an effective process that rapidly produces new species under climate changes.

Systematic review of the correlates of outdoor play and time among children aged 3-12 years.

BACKGROUND: Due to the myriad of benefits of children's outdoor play and time, there is increasing concern over its decline. This systematic review synthesized evidence on the correlates of outdoor play and outdoor time among children aged 3-12 years. METHODS: A total of 12 electronic databases in five different languages (Chinese, English, Korean, Spanish, Portuguese) were searched between October 28, 2019 and July 27, 2020. Covidence software was used for screening and Microsoft Excel with a predesigned coding form was used for data extraction. Evidence was synthesized and correlates were categorized using the socioecological model framework. RESULTS: Based on 107 studies representing 188,498 participants and 422 childcare centers from 29 countries, 85 studies examined potential correlates of outdoor play while 23 studies examined that of outdoor time (one examined both). The duration of outdoor play and outdoor time ranged between 60 and 165 min/d and 42-240 min/d, respectively. Out of 287 (outdoor play) and 61 (outdoor time) potential correlates examined, 111 correlates for outdoor play and 33 correlates for outdoor time were identified as significant correlates. Thirty-three variables were identified as key/common correlates of outdoor play/time, including eight correlates at the individual level (e.g., sex/gender, race/ethnicity, physical activity), 10 correlates at the parental level (e.g., parental attitude/support/behavior, parenting practice), nine at the microsystem level (e.g., proximal home/social environment such as residence type, peer influence), three at the macrosystem/community level (e.g., availability of space children can play), and three at the physical ecology/pressure for macrosystem change level (e.g., seasonality, rurality). No key correlates were found at the institutional level. CONCLUSIONS: Individual, parental, and proximal physical (home) and social environments appear to play a role in children's outdoor play and time. Ecological factors (i.e., seasonality, rurality) also appear to be related to outdoor play/time. Evidence was either inconsistent or lacking at institutional and macrosystem/community levels. Standardizing terminology and measures of outdoor play/time is warranted. Future work should investigate the interactions and processes of multiple variables across different levels of socioecological modelling to better understand the mechanisms through which outdoor play/time opportunities can be optimized for children while paying special attention to varying conditions in which children are born, live, and play.

Towards Building a Sustainable Future: Positioning Ecological Modelling for Impact in Ecosystems Management.

As many ecosystems worldwide are in peril, efforts to manage them sustainably require scientific advice. While numerous researchers around the world use a great variety of models to understand ecological dynamics and their responses to disturbances, only a small fraction of these models are ever used to inform ecosystem management. There seems to be a perception that ecological models are not useful for management, even though mathematical models are indispensable in many other fields. We were curious about this mismatch, its roots, and potential ways to overcome it. We searched the literature on recommendations and best practices for how to make ecological models useful to the management of ecosystems and we searched for 'success stories' from the past. We selected and examined several cases where models were instrumental in ecosystem management. We documented their success and asked whether and to what extent they followed recommended best practices. We found that there is not a unique way to conduct a research project that is useful in management decisions. While research is more likely to have impact when conducted with many stakeholders involved and specific to a situation for which data are available, there are great examples of small groups or individuals conducting highly influential research even in the absence of detailed data. We put the question of modelling for ecosystem management into a socio-economic and national context and give our perspectives on how the discipline could move forward.

Informing management decisions for ecological networks, using dynamic models calibrated to noisy time-series data.

Well-intentioned environmental management can backfire, causing unforeseen damage. To avoid this, managers and ecologists seek accurate predictions of the ecosystem-wide impacts of interventions, given small and imprecise datasets, which is an incredibly difficult task. We generated and analysed thousands of ecosystem population time series to investigate whether fitted models can aid decision-makers to select interventions. Using these time-series data (sparse and noisy datasets drawn from deterministic Lotka-Volterra systems with two to nine species, of known network structure), dynamic model forecasts of whether a species' future population will be positively or negatively affected by rapid eradication of another species were correct > 70% of the time. Although 70% correct classifications is only slightly better than an uninformative prediction (50%), this classification accuracy can be feasibly improved by increasing monitoring accuracy and frequency. Our findings suggest that models may not need to produce well-constrained predictions before they can inform decisions that improve environmental outcomes.

Spatial structure in protected forest-grassland mosaics: Exploring futures under climate change.

In mosaic ecosystems, multiple land types coexist as alternative stable states exhibiting distinct spatial patterns. Forest-grassland mosaics are ecologically valuable, due to their high species richness. However, anthropogenic disturbances threaten these ecosystems. Designating protected areas is one approach to preserving natural mosaics. Such work must account for climate change, yet there are few spatially explicit models of mosaics under climate change that can predict its effects. We construct a spatially explicit simulation model for a natural forest-grassland mosaic, parameterized for Southern Brazil. Using this model, we investigate how the spatial structure of these systems is altered under climate change and other disturbance regimes. By including local spatial interactions and fire-mediated forest recruitment, our model reproduces important spatial features of protected real-world mosaics, including the number of forest patches and overall forest cover. Multiple concurrent changes in environmental conditions have greater impacts on tree cover and spatial structure in simulated mosaics than single changes. This sensitivity reflects the narrow range of conditions under which simulated mosaics persist and emphasizes their vulnerability. Our model predicts that, in protected mosaics, climate change impacts on the fire-mediated threshold to recruitment will likely result in substantial increases in forest cover under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5, with potential for mosaic loss over a broad range of initial forest cover levels. Forest cover trajectories are similar until 2150, when cover increases under RCP 8.5 outpace those under RCP 2.6. Mosaics that persist under RCP 8.5 may experience structural alterations at the patch and landscape level. Our simple model predicts several realistic aspects of spatial structure as well as plausible responses to likely regional climate shifts. Hence, further model development could provide a useful tool when building strategies for protecting these ecosystems, by informing site selection for conservation areas that will be favourable to forest-grassland mosaics under future climates.

Urban effluents affect the early development stages of Brazilian fish species with implications for their population dynamics.

The pollution from urban effluents discharged into natural waters is a major cause of aquatic biodiversity loss. Ecotoxicological testing contributes significantly to understand the risk of exposure to the biota and to establish conservation policies. The objective of the current study was to assess the toxicity of a river highly influenced by urban effluents (Atuba River, Curitiba city, Southern Brazil) to the early stages of development in four South American native fish species, investigating the consequences at the population level through mathematical modelling. The species chosen were Salminus brasiliensis, Prochilodus lineatus, Rhamdia quelen, and Pseudoplatystoma corruscans, ecologically important species encompassing different conservation statuses and vulnerability. The embryos were exposed from 8 to 96 h post fertilization to the Atuba River water, collected downstream of the largest wastewater treatment plant in the Metropolitan Region of Curitiba, and their survival rates and deformities were registered. The species S. brasiliensis and P. lineatus presented the highest mortality rates, showing high sensitivity to the pollutants present in the water. According to the individual-based mathematical model, these species showed high vulnerability and risk of extinction under the tested experimental conditions, even when different sensitivity scenarios of juveniles and adults were considered. The other two species, R. quelen and P. corruscans, showed a more resistant condition to mortality, but also presented high frequency and severity of deformities. These results emphasize the importance of testing the sensitivity of different Brazilian native species for the conservation of biodiversity and the application of models to predict the effects of pollutants at the population level.

Agricultural land use and the sustainability of social-ecological systems.

Agricultural land expansion and intensification, driven by human consumption of agricultural goods, are among the major threats to environmental degradation and biodiversity conservation. Land degradation can ultimately hamper agricultural production through a decrease in ecosystem services. Thus, designing viable land use policies is a key sustainability challenge. We develop a model describing the coupled dynamics of human demography and landscape composition, while imposing a trade-off between agricultural expansion and in-tensification. We model land use strategies spanning from low-intensity agriculture and high land conversion rates per person to high-intensity agriculture and low land conversion rates per person; and explore their consequences on the long-term dynamics of the coupled human-land system. We seek to characterise the strategies' viability in the long run; and understand the mechanisms that potentially lead to large-scale land degradation and population collapse due to resource scarcity. We show that the viability of land use strategies strongly depends on the land's intrinsic recovery rate. We also find that socio-ecological collapses occur when agricultural intensification is not accompanied by a sufficient decrease in land conversion. Based on these findings we stress the dangers of uninformed land use planning and the importance of precautionary behaviour for land use management and land use policy design.