Land in limbo: Nearly one third of Indonesia's cleared old-growth forests left idle.

Indonesia has experienced rapid primary forest loss, second only to Brazil in modern history. We examined the fates of Indonesian deforested areas, immediately after clearing and over time, to quantify deforestation drivers in Indonesia. Using time-series satellite data, we tracked degradation and clearing events in intact and degraded natural forests from 1991 to 2020, as well as land use trajectories after forest loss. While an estimated 7.8 Mha (SE = 0.4) of forest cleared during this period had been planted with oil palms by 2020, another 8.8 Mha (SE = 0.4) remained unused. Of the 28.4 Mha (SE = 0.7) deforested, over half were either initially left idle or experienced crop failure before a land use could be detected, and 44% remained unused for 5 y or more. A majority (54%) of these areas were cleared mechanically (not by escaped fires), and in cases where idle lands were eventually converted to productive uses, oil palm plantations were by far the most common outcome. The apparent deliberate creation of idle deforested land in Indonesia and subsequent conversion of idle areas to oil palm plantations indicates that speculation and land banking for palm oil substantially contribute to forest loss, although failed plantations could also contribute to this dynamic. We also found that in Sumatra, few lowland forests remained, suggesting that a lack of remaining forest appropriate for palm oil production, together with an extensive area of banked deforested land, may partially explain slowing forest loss in Indonesia in recent years.

Substantial increase in perfluorocarbons CF4 (PFC-14) and C2F6 (PFC-116) emissions in China.

The perfluorocarbons tetrafluoromethane (CF4, PFC-14) and hexafluoroethane (C2F6, PFC-116) are potent greenhouse gases with near-permanent atmospheric lifetimes relative to human timescales and global warming potentials thousands of times that of CO2. Using long-term atmospheric observations from a Chinese network and an inverse modeling approach (top-down method), we determined that CF4 emissions in China increased from 4.7 (4.2-5.0, 68% uncertainty interval) Gg y-1 in 2012 to 8.3 (7.7-8.9) Gg y-1 in 2021, and C2F6 emissions in China increased from 0.74 (0.66-0.80) Gg y-1 in 2011 to 1.32 (1.24-1.40) Gg y-1 in 2021, both increasing by approximately 78%. Combined emissions of CF4 and C2F6 in China reached 78 Mt CO2-eq in 2021. The absolute increase in emissions of each substance in China between 2011-2012 and 2017-2020 was similar to (for CF4), or greater than (for C2F6), the respective absolute increase in global emissions over the same period. Substantial CF4 and C2F6 emissions were identified in the less-populated western regions of China, probably due to emissions from the expanding aluminum industry in these resource-intensive regions. It is likely that the aluminum industry dominates CF4 emissions in China, while the aluminum and semiconductor industries both contribute to C2F6 emissions. Based on atmospheric observations, this study validates the emission magnitudes reported in national bottom-up inventories and provides insights into detailed spatial distributions and emission sources beyond what is reported in national bottom-up inventories.

Anthropogenic short-lived halogens increase human exposure to mercury contamination due to enhanced mercury oxidation over continents.

Mercury (Hg) is a contaminant of global concern, and an accurate understanding of its atmospheric fate is needed to assess its risks to humans and ecosystem health. Atmospheric oxidation of Hg is key to the deposition of this toxic metal to the Earth's surface. Short-lived halogens (SLHs) can provide halogen radicals to directly oxidize Hg and perturb the budget of other Hg oxidants (e.g., OH and O3). In addition to known ocean emissions of halogens, recent observational evidence has revealed abundant anthropogenic emissions of SLHs over continental areas. However, the impacts of anthropogenic SLHs emissions on the atmospheric fate of Hg and human exposure to Hg contamination remain unknown. Here, we show that the inclusion of anthropogenic SLHs substantially increased local Hg oxidation and, consequently, deposition in/near Hg continental source regions by up to 20%, thereby decreasing Hg export from source regions to clean environments. Our modeling results indicated that the inclusion of anthropogenic SLHs can lead to higher Hg exposure in/near Hg source regions than estimated in previous assessments, e.g., with increases of 8.7% and 7.5% in China and India, respectively, consequently leading to higher Hg-related human health risks. These results highlight the urgent need for policymakers to reduce local Hg and SLHs emissions. We conclude that the substantial impacts of anthropogenic SLHs emissions should be included in model assessments of the Hg budget and associated health risks at local and global scales.

Automotive braking is a source of highly charged aerosol particles.

Although the last several decades have seen a dramatic reduction in emissions from vehicular exhaust, nonexhaust emissions (e.g., brake and tire wear) represent an increasingly significant class of traffic-related particulate pollution. Aerosol particles emitted from the wear of automotive brake pads contribute roughly half of the particle mass attributed to nonexhaust sources, while their relative contribution to urban air pollution overall will almost certainly grow coinciding with vehicle fleet electrification and the transition to alternative fuels. To better understand the implications of this growing prominence, a more thorough understanding of the physicochemical properties of brake wear particles (BWPs) is needed. Here, we investigate the electrical properties of BWPs as emitted from ceramic and semi-metallic brake pads. We show that up to 80% of BWPs emitted are electrically charged and that this fraction is strongly dependent on the specific brake pad material used. A dependence of the number of charges per particle on charge polarity and particle size is also demonstrated. We find that brake wear produces both positive and negative charged particles that can hold in excess of 30 elementary charges and show evidence that more negative charges are produced than positive. Our results will provide insights into the currently limited understanding of BWPs and their charging mechanisms, which potentially have significant implications on their atmospheric lifetimes and thus their relevance to climate and air quality. In addition, our study will inform future efforts to remove BWP emissions before entering the atmosphere by taking advantage of their electric charge.

Climate impacts of alternative beef production systems depend on the functional unit used: Weight or monetary value.

Beef production has been identified as a significant source of anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the agricultural sector. United States and Canada account for about a quarter of the world's beef supply. To compare the GHG emission contributions of alternative beef production systems, we conducted a meta-analysis of 32 studies that were conducted between 2001 and 2023. Results indicated that GHG emissions from beef production in North America varied almost fourfold from 10.2 to 37.6 with an average of 21.4 kg CO2e/kg carcass weight (CW). Studies that considered soil C sequestration (C-seq) reported the highest mitigation potential in GHG emissions (80%), followed by growth enhancement technology (16%), diet modification (6%), and grazing management improvement (7%). Our study highlights the implications of using carbon intensity per economic activity (i.e., GHG emissions per monetary unit), compared to the more common metric of intensity on per weight of product basis (GHG emissions per kg CW) for comparisons across differentiated beef cattle products. While a positive association was found between the proportion of lifespan on grassland and the conventional weight-based indicator, grass-finished beef was found to have lower carbon intensity per economic activity than feedlot-finished beef. Our study emphasizes the need to incorporate land use and management effects and soil C-seq as fundamental aspects of beef GHG emissions and mitigation assessments.

Modeling global oceanic nitrogen deposition from food systems and its mitigation potential by reducing overuse of fertilizers.

Growing population and consumption pose unprecedented demands on food production. However, ammonia emissions mainly from food systems increase oceanic nitrogen deposition contributing to eutrophication. Here, we developed a long-term oceanic nitrogen deposition dataset (1970 to 2018) with updated ammonia emissions from food systems, evaluated the impact of ammonia emissions on oceanic nitrogen deposition patterns, and discussed the potential impact of nitrogen fertilizer overuse. Based on the chemical transport modeling approach, oceanic ammonia-related nitrogen deposition increased by 89% globally between 1970 and 2018, and now, it exceeds oxidized nitrogen deposition by over 20% in coastal regions including China Sea, India Coastal, and Northeastern Atlantic Shelves. Approximately 38% of agricultural nitrogen fertilizer was excessive, which corresponds to 15% of global oceanic ammonia-related nitrogen deposition. Policymakers and water quality managers need to pay increasingly more attention to ammonia associated with food production if the goal of reducing coastal nitrogen pollution is to be achieved for Sustainable Development Goals.

Parametric information about eye movements is sent to the ears.

Eye movements alter the relationship between the visual and auditory spatial scenes. Signals related to eye movements affect neural pathways from the ear through auditory cortex and beyond, but how these signals contribute to computing the locations of sounds with respect to the visual scene is poorly understood. Here, we evaluated the information contained in eye movement-related eardrum oscillations (EMREOs), pressure changes recorded in the ear canal that occur in conjunction with simultaneous eye movements. We show that EMREOs contain parametric information about horizontal and vertical eye displacement as well as initial/final eye position with respect to the head. The parametric information in the horizontal and vertical directions can be modeled as combining linearly, allowing accurate prediction of the EMREOs associated with oblique (diagonal) eye movements. Target location can also be inferred from the EMREO signals recorded during eye movements to those targets. We hypothesize that the (currently unknown) mechanism underlying EMREOs could impose a two-dimensional eye-movement-related transfer function on any incoming sound, permitting subsequent processing stages to compute the positions of sounds in relation to the visual scene.

The global roots of pre-1900 legacy mercury.

During the nineteenth century, a major change took place in the trade, production, and use of mercury that altered its nearly exclusive link to silver refining in the Hispanic New World. We track the global expansion of mercury markets in chronological detail from 1511 to 1900 using historical archives on production and trade, a detailed country-by-country accounting of the pool of anthropogenic mercury from which legacy mercury was ultimately generated. The nature and profile of pre-1900 legacy mercury extends beyond silver refining, mercury production, and gold extraction, and includes alternate sources (vermilion, felt, mercury fulminate) and new regions that were not major silver or gold producers (China, India, United Kingdom, France, among others), that accounted for approximately 50% of total mercury consumed in the nineteenth century. The nature of the pre-1900 mercury market requires a quantitative distinction between legacy mercury and historic anthropogenic mercury production and use, since the chemistry of its end-uses determines the pathways and timelines for its incorporation into the global biogeochemical cycle. We thus introduce the concept of a mercury source pool to account for total historic anthropogenic mercury within and outside this cycle. Together with a critical review of previous assumptions used to reconstruct the historical use and loss of mercury, a much lower level of emissions of pre-1900 legacy mercury is proposed. A coordinated effort across disciplines is needed, to complete a historically accurate scenario that can guide the multilateral policies adopted under the United Nations Minamata Convention to control mercury in the environment.

Tracing sources of atmospheric methane using clumped isotopes.

We apply a recently developed measurement technique for methane (CH4) isotopologues* (isotopic variants of CH4-13CH4, 12CH3D, 13CH3D, and 12CH2D2) to identify contributions to the atmospheric burden from fossil fuel and microbial sources. The aim of this study is to constrain factors that ultimately control the concentration of this potent greenhouse gas on global, regional, and local levels. While predictions of atmospheric methane isotopologues have been modeled, we present direct measurements that point to a different atmospheric methane composition and to a microbial flux with less clumping (greater deficits relative to stochastic) in both 13CH3D and 12CH2D2 than had been previously assigned. These differences make atmospheric isotopologue data sufficiently sensitive to variations in microbial to fossil fuel fluxes to distinguish between emissions scenarios such as those generated by different versions of EDGAR (the Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research), even when existing constraints on the atmospheric CH4 concentration profile as well as traditional isotopes are kept constant.

The Environmental Impact of Gastrointestinal Procedures: A Prospective Study of Waste Generation, Energy Consumption, and Auditing in an Endoscopy Unit.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Gastrointestinal (GI) endoscopy procedures are critical for screening, diagnosis, and treatment of a variety of GI disorders. However, like the procedures in other medical disciplines, they are a source of environmental waste generation and energy consumption. METHODS: We prospectively collected data on total waste generation, energy consumption, and the role of intraprocedural inventory audit of a single tertiary care academic endoscopy unit over a 2-month period (May-June 2022). Detailed data on items used were collected, including procedure type (esophagogastroduodenoscopy or colonoscopy), accessories, intravenous tubing, biopsy jars, linen, and personal protective equipment use. Data on endoscope reprocessing-related waste generation and energy use in the endoscopy unit (equipment, lights, and computers) were also collected. We used an endoscopy staff-guided auditing and review of the items used during procedures to determine potentially recyclable items going to landfill waste. The waste generated was stratified into biohazardous, nonbiohazardous, or potentially recyclable items. RESULTS: A total of 450 consecutive procedures were analyzed for total waste management (generation and reprocessing) and energy consumption. The total waste generated during the study period was 1398.6 kg (61.6% directly going to landfill, 33.3% biohazard waste, and 5.1% sharps), averaging 3.03 kg/procedure. The average waste directly going to landfill was 219 kg per 100 procedures. The estimated total annual waste generation approximated the size of 2 football fields (1-foot-high layered waste). Endoscope reprocessing generated 194 gallons of liquid waste per day, averaging 13.85 gallons per procedure. Total energy consumption in the endoscopy unit was 277.1 kW·h energy per day; for every 100 procedures, amounting to 1200 miles of distance traveled by an average fuel efficiency car. The estimated carbon footprint for every 100 GI procedures was 1501 kg carbon dioxide (CO2) equivalent (= 1680 lbs of coal burned), which would require 1.8 acres of forests to sequester. The recyclable waste audit and review demonstrated that 20% of total waste consisted of potentially recyclable items (8.6 kg/d) that could be avoided by appropriate waste segregation of these items. CONCLUSIONS: On average, every 100 GI endoscopy procedures (esophagogastroduodenoscopy/colonoscopy) are associated with 303 kg of solid waste and 1385 gallons of liquid waste generation, and 1980 kW·h energy consumption. Potentially recyclable materials account for 20% of the total waste. These data could serve as an actionable model for health systems to reduce total waste generation and decrease landfill waste and water waste toward environmentally sustainable endoscopy units.

Why marginal CO2 emissions are not decreasing for US electricity: Estimates and implications for climate policy.

Marginal emissions of CO2 from the electricity sector are critical for evaluating climate policies that rely on shifts in electricity demand or supply. This paper provides estimates of marginal CO2 emissions from US electricity generation using the most recently available and comprehensive data. The estimates vary by region, hour of the day, and year to year over the last decade. We identify an important and somewhat counterintuitive finding: While average emissions have decreased substantially over the last decade (28% nationally), marginal emissions have increased (7% nationally). We show that underlying these trends is primarily a shift toward greater reliance on coal to satisfy marginal electricity use. We apply our estimates to an analysis of the Biden administration's target of having electric vehicles (EVs) make up 50% of new vehicle purchases by 2030. We find that, without significant and concurrent changes to the electricity sector, the increase in electricity emissions is likely to offset more than half of the emission reductions from having fewer gasoline-powered vehicles on the road. Moreover, using average rather than marginal emissions to predict the impacts significantly overestimates the emission benefits. Overall, we find that the promise of EVs for reducing emissions depends, to a large degree, on complementary policies that decarbonize both average and marginal emissions in the electricity sector.

Observed changes in China's methane emissions linked to policy drivers.

China is set to actively reduce its methane emissions in the coming decade. A comprehensive evaluation of the current situation can provide a reference point for tracking the country's future progress. Here, using satellite and surface observations, we quantify China's methane emissions during 2010-2017. Including newly available data from a surface network across China greatly improves our ability to constrain emissions at subnational and sectoral levels. Our results show that recent changes in China's methane emissions are linked to energy, agricultural, and environmental policies. We find contrasting methane emission trends in different regions attributed to coal mining, reflecting region-dependent responses to China's energy policy of closing small coal mines (decreases in Southwest) and consolidating large coal mines (increases in North). Coordinated production of coalbed methane and coal in southern Shanxi effectively decreases methane emissions, despite increased coal production there. We also detect unexpected increases from rice cultivation over East and Central China, which is contributed by enhanced rates of crop-residue application, a factor not accounted for in current inventories. Our work identifies policy drivers of recent changes in China's methane emissions, providing input to formulating methane policy toward its climate goal.

Mitigation and adaptation emissions embedded in the broader climate transition.

Climate change necessitates a global effort to reduce greenhouse gas emissions while adapting to increased climate risks. This broader climate transition will involve large-scale global interventions including renewable energy deployment, coastal protection and retreat, and enhanced space cooling, all of which will result in CO2 emissions from energy and materials use. Yet, the magnitude of the emissions embedded in these interventions remains unconstrained, opening the potential for underaccounting of emissions and conflicts or synergies between mitigation and adaptation goals. Here, we use a suite of models to estimate the CO2 emissions embedded in the broader climate transition. For a gradual decarbonization pathway limiting warming to 2 °C, selected adaptation-related interventions will emit ∼1.3 GtCO2 through 2100, while emissions from energy used to deploy renewable capacity are much larger at ∼95 GtCO2. Together, these emissions are equivalent to over 2 y of current global emissions and 8.3% of the remaining carbon budget for 2 °C. Total embedded transition emissions are reduced by ∼80% to 21.2 GtCO2 under a rapid pathway limiting warming to 1.5 °C. However, they roughly double to 185 GtCO2 under a delayed pathway consistent with current policies (2.7 °C warming by 2100), mainly because a slower transition relies more on fossil fuel energy. Our results provide a holistic assessment of carbon emissions from the transition itself and suggest that these emissions can be minimized through more ambitious energy decarbonization. We argue that the emissions from mitigation, but likely much less so from adaptation, are of sufficient magnitude to merit greater consideration in climate science and policy.

Exploring global changes in agricultural ammonia emissions and their contribution to nitrogen deposition since 1980.

SignificanceAgricultural systems are already major forces of ammonia pollution and environmental degradation. How agricultural ammonia emissions affect the spatio-temporal patterns of nitrogen deposition and where to target future mitigation efforts, remains poorly understood. We develop a substantially complete and coherent agricultural ammonia emissions dataset in nearly recent four decades, and evaluate the relative role of reduced nitrogen in total nitrogen deposition in a spatially explicit way. Global reduced nitrogen deposition has grown rapidly, and will occupy a greater dominant position in total nitrogen deposition without future ammonia regulations. Recognition of agricultural ammonia emissions on nitrogen deposition is critical to formulate effective policies to address ammonia related environmental challenges and protect ecosystems from excessive nitrogen inputs.

The global potential for increased storage of carbon on land.

Constraining the climate crisis requires urgent action to reduce anthropogenic emissions while simultaneously removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. Improved information about the maximum magnitude and spatial distribution of opportunities for additional land-based removals of CO2 is needed to guide on-the-ground decision-making about where to implement climate change mitigation strategies. Here, we present a globally consistent spatial dataset (approximately 500-m resolution) of current, potential, and unrealized potential carbon storage in woody plant biomass and soil organic matter. We also provide a framework for prioritizing actions related to the restoration, management, and maintenance of woody carbon stocks and associated soils. By comparing current to potential carbon storage, while excluding areas critical to food production and human habitation, we find 287 petagrams (PgC) of unrealized potential storage opportunity, of which 78% (224 PgC) is in biomass and 22% (63 PgC) is in soil. Improved management of existing forests may offer nearly three-fourths (206 PgC) of the total unrealized potential, with the majority (71%) concentrated in tropical ecosystems. However, climate change is a source of considerable uncertainty. While additional research is needed to understand the impact of natural disturbances and biophysical feedbacks, we project that the potential for additional carbon storage in woody biomass will increase (+17%) by 2050 despite projected decreases (−12%) in the tropics. Our results establish an absolute reference point and conceptual framework for national and jurisdictional prioritization of locations and actions to increase land-based carbon storage.

Environmental outcomes of the US Renewable Fuel Standard.

The Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) specifies the use of biofuels in the United States and thereby guides nearly half of all global biofuel production, yet outcomes of this keystone climate and environmental regulation remain unclear. Here we combine econometric analyses, land use observations, and biophysical models to estimate the realized effects of the RFS in aggregate and down to the scale of individual agricultural fields across the United States. We find that the RFS increased corn prices by 30% and the prices of other crops by 20%, which, in turn, expanded US corn cultivation by 2.8 Mha (8.7%) and total cropland by 2.1 Mha (2.4%) in the years following policy enactment (2008 to 2016). These changes increased annual nationwide fertilizer use by 3 to 8%, increased water quality degradants by 3 to 5%, and caused enough domestic land use change emissions such that the carbon intensity of corn ethanol produced under the RFS is no less than gasoline and likely at least 24% higher. These tradeoffs must be weighed alongside the benefits of biofuels as decision-makers consider the future of renewable energy policies and the potential for fuels like corn ethanol to meet climate mitigation goals.

Glutathione-responsive Aggregation-induced Emission Photosensitizers for Enhanced Photodynamic Therapy of Lung Cancer.

Lung cancer, a highly prevalent and lethal form of cancer, is often associated with oxidative stress. Photodynamic therapy (PDT) has emerged as a promising alternative therapeutic tool in cancer treatments, but its efficacy is closely correlated to the photosensitizers generating reactive oxygen species (ROS) and the antioxidant capacity of tumor cells. In particular, glutathione (GSH) can reduce the ROS and thus compromise PDT efficacy. In this study, a GSH-responsive near-infrared photosensitizer (TBPPN) based on aggregation-induced emission for real-time monitoring of GSH levels and enhanced PDT for lung cancer treatment is developed. The strategic design of TBPPN, consisting of a donor-acceptor structure and incorporation of dinitrobenzene, enables dual functionality by not only the fluorescence being activated by GSH but also depleting GSH to enhance the cytotoxic effect of PDT. TBPPN demonstrates synergistic PDT efficacy in vitro against A549 lung cancer cells by specifically targeting different cellular compartments and depleting intracellular GSH. In vivo studies further confirm that TBPPN can effectively inhibit tumor growth in a mouse model with lung cancer, highlighting its potential as an integrated agent for the diagnosis and treatment of lung cancer. This approach enhances the effectiveness of PDT for lung cancer and deserves further exploration of its potential for clinical application.

Improve animal health to reduce livestock emissions: quantifying an open goal.

Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from livestock production must be urgently tackled to substantially reduce their contribution to global warming. Simply reducing livestock numbers to this end risks impacting negatively on food security, rural livelihoods and climate change adaptation. We argue that significant mitigation of livestock emissions can be delivered immediately by improving animal health and hence production efficiency, but this route is not prioritized because its benefits, although intuitive, are poorly quantified. Rigorous methodology must be developed to estimate emissions from animal disease and hence achievable benefits from improved health through interventions. If, as expected, climate change is to affect the distribution and severity of health conditions, such quantification becomes of even greater importance. We have therefore developed a framework and identified data sources for robust quantification of the relationship between animal health and greenhouse gas emissions, which could be applied to drive and account for positive action. This will not only help mitigate climate change but at the same time promote cost-effective food production and enhanced animal welfare, a rare win-win in the search for a sustainable planetary future.

A restatement of the natural science evidence base concerning grassland management, grazing livestock and soil carbon storage.

Approximately a third of all annual greenhouse gas emissions globally are directly or indirectly associated with the food system, and over a half of these are linked to livestock production. In temperate oceanic regions, such as the UK, most meat and dairy is produced in extensive systems based on pasture. There is much interest in the extent to which such grassland may be able to sequester and store more carbon to partially or completely mitigate other greenhouse gas emissions in the system. However, answering this question is difficult due to context-specificity and a complex and sometimes inconsistent evidence base. This paper describes a project that set out to summarize the natural science evidence base relevant to grassland management, grazing livestock and soil carbon storage potential in as policy-neutral terms as possible. It is based on expert appraisal of a systematically assembled evidence base, followed by a wide stakeholders engagement. A series of evidence statements (in the appendix of this paper) are listed and categorized according to the nature of the underlying information, and an annotated bibliography is provided in the electronic supplementary material.

Aerobic methane production in Scots pine shoots is independent of drought or photosynthesis.

Shoot-level emissions of aerobically produced methane (CH4) may be an overlooked source of tree-derived CH4, but insufficient understanding of the interactions between their environmental and physiological drivers still prevents the reliable upscaling of canopy CH4 fluxes. We utilised a novel automated chamber system to continuously measure CH4 fluxes from the shoots of Pinus sylvestris (Scots pine) saplings under drought to investigate how canopy CH4 fluxes respond to the drought-induced alterations in their physiological processes and to isolate the shoot-level production of CH4 from soil-derived transport and photosynthesis. We found that aerobic CH4 emissions are not affected by the drought-induced stress, changes in physiological processes, or decrease in photosynthesis. Instead, these emissions vary on short temporal scales with environmental drivers such as temperature, suggesting that they result from abiotic degradation of plant compounds. Our study shows that aerobic CH4 emissions from foliage are distinct from photosynthesis-related processes. Thus, instead of photosynthesis rates, it is more reliable to construct regional and global estimates for the aerobic CH4 emission based on regional differences in foliage biomass and climate, also accounting for short-term variations of weather variables such as air temperature and solar radiation.