Wastewater Target Pathogens of Public Health Importance for Expanded Sampling, Houston, Texas, USA.

Building on the success of initiatives put forth during the COVID-19 pandemic response, US health officials are expanding wastewater surveillance programs to track other target pathogens and diseases of public health interest. The Houston Health Department in Houston, Texas, USA, conducted a hypothesis-generating study whereby infectious disease subject matter experts suggested potential targets. This study addressed 2 criteria recommended by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine for selecting wastewater targets. Results can be used as a basis of a questionnaire for a future population-based study to recommend targets of highest priority to include for expanded wastewater sampling.

Outbreak-associated Salmonella Baildon found in wastewater demonstrates how sewage monitoring can supplement traditional disease surveillance.

Non-typhoidal Salmonella is a common cause of gastroenteritis worldwide, but current non-typhoidal Salmonella surveillance is suboptimal. Here, we evaluated the utility of wastewater monitoring to enhance traditional surveillance for this foodborne pathogen. In June 2022, we tested raw sewage collected twice a week from two treatment plants in central Pennsylvania for non-typhoidal Salmonella and characterized isolates using whole-genome sequencing. We recovered 43 Salmonella isolates from wastewater samples, differentiated by genomic analysis into seven serovars: 16 Panama (37.2%), 9 Senftenberg (20.9%), 8 Baildon (18.6%), and 3 or fewer of four other serovars. We assessed genetic relatedness and epidemiologic links between these wastewater isolates with those from patients with salmonellosis. All S. Baildon isolates from wastewater were genetically similar to those associated with a known contemporaneous salmonellosis outbreak. S. Baildon from wastewater and 42 outbreak-related isolates in the national outbreak detection database had the same core genome multilocus sequence typing, and outbreak code differed by zero or one single polynucleotide polymorphism. One of the 42 outbreak-related isolates was obtained from a patient residing in the wastewater sample collection catchment area, which serves approximately 17000 people. S. Baildon is a rare serovar (reported in <1% cases nationally, over five years). Our study underscores the value of monitoring sewage from a defined population to supplement traditional surveillance methods for the evidence of Salmonella infections and to determine the extent of outbreaks.IMPORTANCEDuring the COVID-19 pandemic, monitoring for SARS-CoV-2 in wastewater was highly effective in identifying the variants of concern earlier than clinical surveillance methods. Here, we show that monitoring domestic sewage can also augment traditional reporting of foodborne illnesses to public health authorities. Our study detected multiple Salmonella enterica serovars in samples from two wastewater treatment plants in central Pennsylvania. Using whole-genome sequencing, we demonstrated that the isolates of variant S. Baildon clustered with those from a foodborne salmonellosis outbreak that occurred in a similar time frame. Cases were primarily from Pennsylvania, and one individual lived within the wastewater treatment catchment area. This study highlights the effectiveness of domestic sewage testing as a proactive public health strategy to track and respond to infectious disease outbreaks.

Continued decline in the incidence of myocardial infarction beyond the COVID-19 pandemic: a nationwide study of the Swedish population aged 60 and older during 2015-2022.

The number of myocardial infarctions declined during the early COVID-19 pandemic but mechanisms behind these declines are poorly understood. COVID-19 infection is also associated with an increased risk of myocardial infarction which could lead to higher incidence rates in the population. This study aims to shed light on the seemingly paradoxical relationship between COVID-19 and myocardial infarction occurrence on the population level by exploring long-term trends in incidence rates, case fatality, and proportion of patients dying before reaching a hospital. Our work is based on a linkage of administrative registers covering the entire population aged 60 + in Sweden. Considering both long-term trends since 2015 and seasonal variability, we compared observed incidence, case fatality, and proportions of patients hospitalized to expected values during 2020-2022. Despite more than 200 laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 cases per 1000 inhabitants by the end of 2022, incidence rates of myocardial infarction continued to decline, thus following the long-term trend observed already before 2020. During the first pandemic wave there was an additional incidence decline corresponding to 13% fewer myocardial infarctions than expected. This decline was neither accompanied by increasing case fatality nor by lower shares of patients being hospitalized. We found no increase in the population-level incidence of myocardial infarction despite large-scale exposure to COVID-19, which suggests that the effect of COVID-19 on myocardial infarction risk is not substantial. Increased pressure on the Swedish health care system has not led to increased risks or poorer outcomes for patients presenting with acute myocardial infarction.

Challenges in the evaluation of suicide prevention measures and quality of suicide data in Germany, Austria, and Switzerland: findings from qualitative expert interviews.

BACKGROUND: Suicide prevention requires diverse, integrated, and evidence-based measures. Comprehensive evaluation of interventions and reliable suicide data are crucial for guiding policy-making and advancing suicide prevention efforts. This study aimed to analyze current issues and gaps in the evaluation of suicide prevention measures and the quality of suicide data in Germany, Austria, and Switzerland to derive specific recommendations for improvement. METHODS: Online, semi-structured interviews were conducted with 36 experts in suicide prevention from Germany, Austria, and Switzerland, covering insights from policy, science, and practice. The interviews took place between September 2022 and February 2023, were audio-recorded, transcribed verbatim, and analyzed using the Framework method. RESULTS: While solid evidence supports the effectiveness of some suicide prevention interventions, experts indicated that the evaluation of many other measures is weak. Conducting effectiveness studies in suicide prevention presents a range of methodological and practical challenges, including recruitment difficulties, choosing adequate outcome criteria, ethical considerations, and trade-offs in allocating resources to evaluation efforts. Many interviewees rated the quality of national suicide statistics in Germany, Austria, and Switzerland as comparatively high. However, they noted limitations in the scope, timeliness, and reliability of these data, prompting some regions to implement their own suicide monitoring systems. None of the three countries has national routine data on suicide attempts. CONCLUSION: While some challenges in evaluating suicide prevention measures are inevitable, others can potentially be mitigated. Evaluations could be enhanced by combining traditional and innovative research designs, including intermediate outcomes and factors concerning the implementation process, and employing participatory and transdisciplinary research to engage different stakeholders. Reliable suicide data are essential for identifying trends, supporting research, and designing targeted prevention measures. To improve the quality of suicide data, a standardized monitoring approach, including uniform definitions, trained professionals, and cross-sector agreement on leadership and financing, should be pursued. This study provides actionable recommendations and highlights existing good practice approaches, thereby supporting decision-makers and providing guidance for advancing suicide prevention on a broader scale.

A survey of the representativeness and usefulness of wastewater-based surveillance systems in 10 countries across Europe in 2023.

Wastewater-based surveillance (WBS) has become a widespread method to monitor transmission of SARS-CoV-2 and other human pathogens in Europe. We conducted a survey about WBS systems' objectives, approaches, representativeness and usefulness in 10 invited European countries in 2023, i.e. Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, Greece, Hungary, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands and Norway. All countries completed the study questionnaire about their SARS-CoV-2 WBS systems, and shared information about WBS of other pathogens as deemed relevant. SARS-CoV-2 WBS systems primarily monitored national and subnational trends (population coverage: 25-99%), and a majority (8/10) also tracked variant distribution. Nine of 10 countries reported that their SARS-CoV-2 WBS systems were representative of their population and all countries remarked that the findings were valuable for public health decision-making. Results were shared with relevant public health authorities and published via dedicated websites and/or dashboards. WBS systems of other pathogens were mostly in the early stages, with some countries implementing pilots. Notable exceptions were the well-established poliovirus surveillance systems in Finland, Italy and the Netherlands. This study brings understanding the diverse landscape of WBS in Europe, offering insights for future developments and collaborations. Furthermore, it highlights the need for further integration of WBS into other European surveillance systems.

Risk factors associated with severe COVID-19 outcomes in Jamaica: a cross-sectional study of national surveillance data.

Objectives: To describe the characteristics and outcomes of COVID-19 cases in Jamaica and to explore the risk factors associated with severe COVID-19 from 9 March to 31 December 2020. Methods: A cross-sectional analysis of national surveillance data was conducted using confirmed COVID-19 cases in Jamaica. Definitions of a confirmed case, disease severity, and death were based on World Health Organization guidelines. Chi-square and Fisher exact tests were used to determine association with outcomes. Logistic regression models were used to determine predictors of severe COVID-19. Results: This analysis included 12 169 cases of COVID-19 (median age, 36 years; 6 744 females [ 55.4%]) of which 512 cases (4.2%) presented with severe disease, and of those, 318 patients (62.1%) died (median age at death, 71.5 years). Severe disease was associated with being male (OR 1.4; 95% CI, 1.2-1.7) and 40 years or older (OR, 6.5; 95% CI, 5.1-8.2). COVID-19 death was also associated with being male (OR, 1.4; 95% CI, 1.1-1.7), age 40 years or older (OR, 17.9; 95% CI, 11.6-27.7), and in the Western versus South East Health Region (OR 1.7; 95% CI, 1.2-2.3). Conclusions: The findings of this cross-sectional analysis indicate that confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Jamaica were more likely to be female and younger individuals, whereas COVID-19 deaths occurred more frequently in males and older individuals. There is increased risk of poor COVID-19 outcomes beginning at age 40, with males disproportionately affected. COVID-19 death also varied by geographic region. This evidence could be useful to other countries with similar settings and to policymakers charged with managing outbreaks and health.

Predicting COVID-19 Incidence Using Wastewater Surveillance Data, Denmark, October 2021-June 2022.

Analysis of wastewater is used in many settings for surveillance of SARS-CoV-2, but it remains unclear how well wastewater testing results reflect incidence. Denmark has had an extensive wastewater analysis system that conducts 3 weekly tests in ≈200 sites and has 85% population coverage; the country also offers free SARS-CoV-2 PCR tests to all residents. Using time series analysis for modeling, we found that wastewater data, combined with information on circulating variants and the number of human tests performed, closely fitted the incidence curve of persons testing positive. The results were consistent at a regional level and among a subpopulation of frequently tested healthcare personnel. We used wastewater analysis data to estimate incidence after testing was reduced to a minimum after March 2022. These results imply that data from a large-scale wastewater surveillance system can serve as a good proxy for COVID-19 incidence and for epidemic control.

US National Institutes of Health Prioritization of SARS-CoV-2 Variants.

Since late 2020, SARS-CoV-2 variants have regularly emerged with competitive and phenotypic differences from previously circulating strains, sometimes with the potential to escape from immunity produced by prior exposure and infection. The Early Detection group is one of the constituent groups of the US National Institutes of Health National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases SARS-CoV-2 Assessment of Viral Evolution program. The group uses bioinformatic methods to monitor the emergence, spread, and potential phenotypic properties of emerging and circulating strains to identify the most relevant variants for experimental groups within the program to phenotypically characterize. Since April 2021, the group has prioritized variants monthly. Prioritization successes include rapidly identifying most major variants of SARS-CoV-2 and providing experimental groups within the National Institutes of Health program easy access to regularly updated information on the recent evolution and epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2 that can be used to guide phenotypic investigations.

Public health determinants of child malaria mortality: a surveillance study within Siaya County, Western Kenya.

BACKGROUND: Malaria deaths among children have been declining worldwide during the last two decades. Despite preventive, epidemiologic and therapy-development work, mortality rate decline has stagnated in western Kenya resulting in persistently high child malaria morbidity and mortality. The aim of this study was to identify public health determinants influencing the high burden of malaria deaths among children in this region. METHODS: A total of 221,929 children, 111,488 females and 110,441 males, under the age of 5 years were enrolled in the Kenya Medical Research Institute/Center for Disease Control Health and Demographic Surveillance System (KEMRI/CDC HDSS) study area in Siaya County during the period 2003-2013. Cause of death was determined by use of verbal autopsy. Age-specific mortality rates were computed, and cox proportional hazard regression was used to model time to malaria death controlling for the socio-demographic factors. A variety of demographic, social and epidemiologic factors were examined. RESULTS: In total 8,696 (3.9%) children died during the study period. Malaria was the most prevalent cause of death and constituted 33.2% of all causes of death, followed by acute respiratory infections (26.7%) and HIV/AIDS related deaths (18.6%). There was a marked decrease in overall mortality rate from 2003 to 2013, except for a spike in the rates in 2008. The hazard of death differed between age groups with the youngest having the highest hazard of death HR 6.07 (95% CI 5.10-7.22). Overall, the risk attenuated with age and mortality risks were limited beyond 4 years of age. Longer distance to healthcare HR of 1.44 (95% CI 1.29-1.60), l ow maternal education HR 3.91 (95% CI 1.86-8.22), and low socioeconomic status HR 1.44 (95% CI 1.26-1.64) were all significantly associated with increased hazard of malaria death among children. CONCLUSIONS: While child mortality due to malaria in the study area in Western Kenya, has been decreasing, a final step toward significant risk reduction is yet to be accomplished. This study highlights residual proximal determinants of risk which can further inform preventive actions.

Surveillance of tick-borne encephalitis in emerging risk areas in southern Sweden: a retrospective case finding study.

Tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) is an emerging infection causing CNS infection of various severity. Good knowledge of the incidence in the population and defined risk areas is important in risk communication and vaccination recommendations. The aim of this study was to investigate potential underreporting by retrospectively diagnose TBE among patients with viral CNS infections of unknown etiology in a region with emerging risk areas for TBE, and define variables associated with performed TBE serology at the time of infection. Epidemiological data and microbiological diagnostics of cases with viral CNS infection of unknown etiology treated at departments of infectious diseases and pediatrics in Skåne County during 2000-2012 were investigated. Analyses to evaluate variables associated with performed TBE serology at the time of infection were performed. Retrospective TBE serology was performed on stored blood samples when available. TBE serology was already performed at the time of CNS infection in 193 out of 761 cases. Department, type of clinical manifestation, time period of illness, and whether Borrelia serology had been performed were independent variables associated with having had TBE serology performed or not at the time of illness. Only one of 137 cases, where samples could be retrospectively analyzed for TBE, turned out positive. This study shows a low frequency of TBE sampling among patients with meningoencephalitis in a region with emerging risk for TBE. A higher awareness of TBE as differential diagnosis could contribute to earlier detection of new risk areas and adequate preventive advice to the public.

Reducing urinary catheter use in geriatric patients - results of a single-center champion-led intervention.

BACKGROUND: Indwelling urinary tract catheters (UTC) are a well-known risk factor for urinary tract infections (UTI). Because geriatric patients are at high risk of infection, an intervention with a focus on appropriate and minimal UTC use was introduced in 4 acute care geriatric wards. METHODS: Between 11/2018 and 1/2020, unit-based data on UTC use and nosocomial UTI was collected in accordance with the methods of the German national surveillance system KISS. From 6/2019 to 1/2020, a champion-led intervention was implemented which focused on: (i) feedback of surveillance data, (ii) education and training in aseptic UTC insertion and maintenance, (iii) HCW's daily assessment of UTC necessity based on a checklist and (iv) timely removal of unnecessary UTCs. UTC use, incidence, and incidence densities for catheter-associated UTI (CAUTI) were calculated before and during the intervention. In addition, we analyzed adherence to a scheduled daily assessment of UTC necessity. Rate ratios (RR) with 95% confidence intervals (95%CI) were calculated. Differences based on the quality of checklist completion were evaluated using the Kruskal Wallis test. RESULTS: We analyzed the data of 3,564 patients with a total 53,954 patient days, 9,208 UTC days, and 61 CAUTI. Surveillance data showed a significant decrease in the pooled UTC utilization rate from 19.1/100 patient days to 15.2/100 patient days (RR = 0.80, 95%CI 0.77-0.83, p < 0.001). CAUTI per 100 patients dropped from 2.07 to 1.40 (RR = 0.68, 95%CI 0.41-1.12, p = 0.1279). Overall, 373 patients received a UTC during the intervention. Of those patients 351 patients had an UTC ≥ 2 days. The analysis of these patients showed that 186 patients (53%) received a checklist as part of their chart for daily evaluation of UTC necessity. 43 (23.1%) of the completed checklists were of good quality; 143 (76.9%) were of poor quality. Patients in the group whose checklists were of good quality had fewer UTC days (median 7 UTC days IQR (3-11)) than patients whose checklists were of poor quality (11 UTC days IQR (6-16), p = 0.001). CONCLUSION: We conclude that a champion-led, surveillance-based intervention reduces the use of UTC among geriatric patients. Further research is needed to determine to what extent the use of checklists in daily medical UTC assessment affects the prevention of CAUTI. The fact that patients whose checklists were completed well had fewer UTC days should encourage a conscientious and thorough daily review of the need for UTC.

Trends in congenital clubfoot prevalence and co-occurring anomalies during 1994-2021 in Denmark: a nationwide register-based study.

BACKGROUND: Congenital talipes equinovarus (clubfoot) is a common musculoskeletal anomaly, with a suspected multifactorial etiopathogenesis. Herein, we used publicly available data to ascertain liveborn infants with clubfoot delivered in Denmark during 1994-2021, and to classify co-occurring congenital anomalies, estimate annual prevalence, and compare clubfoot occurrence with maternal smoking rates, a commonly reported risk factor. Characterizing this nationwide, liveborn cohort provides a population-based resource for etiopathogenic investigations and life course surveillance. METHODS: This case-cohort study used data from the Danish National Patient Register and Danish Civil Registration System, accessed through the publicly available Danish Biobank Register, to identify 1,315,282 liveborn infants delivered during 1994-2021 in Denmark to Danish parents. Among these, 2,358 infants (65.1% male) were ascertained with clubfoot and classified as syndromic (co-occurring chromosomal, genetic, or teratogenic syndromes) and nonsyndromic (isolated or co-occurring multiple congenital anomalies [MCA]). Annual prevalence estimates and corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for children with nonsyndromic clubfoot were estimated using Poisson regression and compared with population-based, maternal annual smoking rates obtained from publicly available resources. RESULTS: Infants most often presented with nonsyndromic clubfoot (isolated = 88.6%; MCA = 11.4%); limb and heart anomalies were the most frequently identified MCAs. Prevalence (per 1,000 liveborn infants) was 1.52 (CI 1.45-1.58) for isolated and 0.19 (CI 0.17-0.22) for MCA clubfoot. Prevalence estimates for both isolated and MCA clubfoot remained relatively stable during the study period, despite marked decreases in population-based maternal smoking rates. CONCLUSIONS: From 1994 to 2021, prevalence of nonsyndromic clubfoot in Denmark was relatively stable. Reduction in population-level maternal smoking rates did not seem to impact prevalence estimates, providing some support for the suspected multifactorial etiopathogenesis of this anomaly. This nationwide, liveborn cohort, ascertained and clinically characterized using publicly available data from the Danish Biobank Register, provides a population-based clinical and biological resource for future etiopathogenic investigations and life course surveillance.

Nationwide Trends in Non-COVID-19 Infectious Disease Laboratory Tests in the Era of the COVID-19 Pandemic in Korea.

The coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic has brought significant changes to infectious disease management globally. This study explored changes in clinical microbiological testing trends and their implications for infectious disease incidence and medical utilization during the pandemic. We collected nationwide claims for monthly clinical microbiology tests from January 2018 to March 2022 using the National Health Insurance Service database. Seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average models were employed to make predictions for each disease based on the baseline period (January 2018 to January 2020). The results showed a significant decrease in general bacterial and fungal cultures, respiratory infectious disease-related, and inflammatory markers, while the representatives of tests for vector-borne diseases, healthcare-associated infections, and chronic viral infections remained stable. The study highlights the potential of clinical microbiological testing trends as an additional surveillance tool and offers implications for future infectious disease management and surveillance strategies in pandemic settings.

SARS-CoV-2 rapid antigen testing positive rate in community testing stations as an indicator for COVID-19 epidemic trend, Taipei, Taiwan, May to August 2021.

BACKGROUND: Real-time surveillance of COVID-19 in large-scale community outbreaks presents challenges. Simple counts of the daily confirmed cases can be misleading due to constraints from bottlenecks in access to care or laboratory testing. This study aimed to investigate the role of the SARS-CoV-2 antigen rapid diagnostic test (Ag-RDT) in addressing these challenges for real-time COVID-19 surveillance. METHODS: This study included the results of 86,994 SARS-CoV-2 Ag-RDT and real-time reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) tests. These were conducted at four community testing stations within the Taipei metropolitan area during a community COVID-19 outbreak spanning from May 17, 2021, to August 9, 2021. We examined the correlation between the positive rates of Ag-RDT tests and the epidemic curve of laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 cases by onset date to examine its role in real-time surveillance. RESULTS: During the 85-day study period, the trend of Ag-RDT test positive rates paralleled that of the epidemic curve. The correlation between the Ag-RDT positive rate and the number of cases (Pearson correlation coefficient: 0.968) is comparable to that of the RT-PCR positive rate (Pearson correlation coefficient: 0.964). The Ag-RDT positive rate exhibited a more advanced leading trend, with Ag-RDT leading by 3 days in comparison to the 2-day lead for RT-PCR. CONCLUSION: The positive rate of SARS-CoV-2 Ag-RDT tests at community testing stations serves as a good surrogate for assessing virus activity within the community and a useful tool for real-time COVID-19 surveillance. It is a robust indicator of the outbreak trend and near-term numbers of cases. This finding may facilitate the management of subsequent outbreaks of emerging infectious diseases.

Concurrent Infection With Multiple Human Papillomavirus Types Among Unvaccinated and Vaccinated 17-Year-Old Norwegian Girls.

BACKGROUND: Whether type-specific human papillomavirus (HPV) infection influences the risk of acquiring infections with other HPV types is unclear. We studied concurrent HPV infections in 17-year-old girls from 2 birth cohorts; the first vaccine-eligible cohort in Norway and a prevaccination cohort. METHODS: Urine samples were collected and tested for 37 HPV genotypes. This study was restricted to unvaccinated girls from the prevaccination cohort (n = 5245) and vaccinated girls from the vaccine-eligible cohort (n = 4904). Risk of HPV infection was modelled using mixed-effect logistic regression. Expected frequencies of concurrent infection with each pairwise combination of the vaccine types and high-risk types (6/11/16/18/31/33/35/39/45/51/52/56/58/59) were compared to observed frequencies. RESULTS: Infection with multiple HPV types was more common among unvaccinated girls than vaccinated girls (9.2% vs 3.7%). HPV33 and HPV51 was the only HPV pair that was detected together more often than expected among both unvaccinated (P = .002) and vaccinated girls (P < .001). No HPV pairs were observed significantly less often than expected. CONCLUSIONS: HPV33 and HPV51 tended to be involved in coinfection among both unvaccinated and vaccinated girls. The introduction of HPV vaccination does not seem to have had an effect on the tendency of specific HPV types to cluster together.

On the accuracy of short-term COVID-19 fatality forecasts.

BACKGROUND: Forecasting new cases, hospitalizations, and disease-induced deaths is an important part of infectious disease surveillance and helps guide health officials in implementing effective countermeasures. For disease surveillance in the US, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) combine more than 65 individual forecasts of these numbers in an ensemble forecast at national and state levels. A similar initiative has been launched by the European CDC (ECDC) in the second half of 2021. METHODS: We collected data on CDC and ECDC ensemble forecasts of COVID-19 fatalities, and we compare them with easily interpretable "Euler" forecasts serving as a model-free benchmark that is only based on the local rate of change of the incidence curve. The term "Euler method" is motivated by the eponymous numerical integration scheme that calculates the value of a function at a future time step based on the current rate of change. RESULTS: Our results show that simple and easily interpretable "Euler" forecasts can compete favorably with both CDC and ECDC ensemble forecasts on short-term forecasting horizons of 1 week. However, ensemble forecasts better perform on longer forecasting horizons. CONCLUSIONS: Using the current rate of change in incidences as estimates of future incidence changes is useful for epidemic forecasting on short time horizons. An advantage of the proposed method over other forecasting approaches is that it can be implemented with a very limited amount of work and without relying on additional data (e.g., data on human mobility and contact patterns) and high-performance computing systems.

Inferring SARS-CoV-2 RNA shedding into wastewater relative to the time of infection.

Since the start of the coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, there has been interest in using wastewater monitoring as an approach for disease surveillance. A significant uncertainty that would improve the interpretation of wastewater monitoring data is the intensity and timing with which individuals shed RNA from severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) into wastewater. By combining wastewater and case surveillance data sets from a university campus during a period of heightened surveillance, we inferred that individual shedding of RNA into wastewater peaks on average 6 days (50% uncertainty interval (UI): 6-7; 95% UI: 4-8) following infection, and that wastewater measurements are highly overdispersed [negative binomial dispersion parameter, k = 0.39 (95% credible interval: 0.32-0.48)]. This limits the utility of wastewater surveillance as a leading indicator of secular trends in SARS-CoV-2 transmission during an epidemic, and implies that it could be most useful as an early warning of rising transmission in areas where transmission is low or clinical testing is delayed or of limited capacity.

Cancer among children, adolescents and young adults in the Hokushin region, Japan, between 2010 and 2015.

Adolescents and young adults with cancer encounter age-related challenges. Cancer treatment and support are not always tailored to the needs of each patient due to difficulty in the collection of accurate data. The present study aimed to investigate cancer among children and adolescents and young adults in the four adjacent prefectures of Japan (Toyama, Ishikawa, Fukui and Nagano) by analyzing data from a unique regional cancer database. We retrieved and analyzed the data of pediatric and adolescent and young adult patients aged between 0 and 39 years at cancer diagnosis (including carcinoma in situ), which was registered in the Hokushin Ganpro database between 2010 and 2015. A total of 5718 cases (1571 males and 4147 females) were identified during this period. The overall male-to-female ratio was 1:2.6. There was no distinct difference in the number of cancer cases per 100 000 population between males and females until 19 years of age. The difference became more pronounced after 20 years of age. The number of cancer cases (per 100 000 population) in the 0-14-, 15-19-, 20-29- and 30-39-year age groups was estimated to be 13.4, 14.5, 44.0 and 101.5, respectively. Carcinomas were the most common type of cancer in the adolescents and young adults (15-39 years) population (74%), whereas they were not the predominant cancer type in the pediatric (0-14 years) population. Although further research is needed to understand the needs of adolescents and young adults with cancer, we believe that our findings will help guide efforts to improve the management strategy for adolescents and young adults with cancer.

Surveillance of tobacco use among young adolescents: trends and predictors across three years in Sousse, Tunisia.

BACKGROUND: In developed countries, there was an overall decrease in tobacco use over the last decades. In Tunisia, a national strategy to reduce tobacco use was set up since 2008. However, this strategy was rarely evaluated. The objective of the current study was to examine the trends in tobacco use among the middle schoolchildren of the governorate of Sousse (Tunisia) between 2014 and 2016 and to determine predictors of its experimentation. METHODS: Three cross-sectional studies were conducted in 2014, 2015 and 2016 school years among middle schoolchildren randomly selected from the governorate of Sousse-Tunisia. The required sample size for each study was 760 participants. Each year, the same procedure was used to recruit pupils from the same middle schools. The same pre-established and pre-tested questionnaire was self-administered anonymously to participants in their classrooms. RESULTS: Lifetime tobacco use rose from 11% in 2014 to 17.3% in 2016 (p = 0.001). Across the 3 years of survey, predictors of lifetime tobacco use were: The male sex (OR, 95% CI: 4.4 [3.2-6.1]), age above 13 (OR, 95% CI: 2.3 [1.7-3.1]), lifetime illicit substances use (OR, 95% CI: 3.9 [1.1- 13.8), lifetime inhalant products use (OR, 95% CI: 2.2 [1.2-4.3]), tobacco use among the father (OR, 95% CI: 2.2 [1.2-4.3]), tobacco use among siblings (OR, 95% CI: 1.7 [1.2-2.4]) and current anxiety symptoms (OR, 95% CI: 1.8 [1.4-2.4]). CONCLUSION: Lifetime tobacco use is in expansion among the young adolescents of Sousse. The current national tobacco prevention program should be strengthened and expanded to cover other substances use issues with emphasis on secondhand smoking and mental health problems.

Regional differences and temporal trend analysis of Hepatitis B in Brazil.

BACKGROUND: Burden disease related to chronic HBV infection is increasing worldwide. Monitoring Hepatitis B occurrence is difficult due to intrinsic characteristics of the infection, nonetheless analyzing this information improves strategic planning towards reducing the burden related to chronic infection. In this line of thought, this study aims to analyze national and regional epidemiology of Hepatitis B and it's temporal trends based on Brazilian reported cases. METHODS: Data obtained from the Brazilian National Notifiable Disease Reporting System (SINAN) from 2007 to 2018 were classified by infection status with an original classification algorithm, had their temporal trends analyzed by Joinpoint regression model and were correlated with gender, age and region. RESULTS: Of the 487,180 hepatitis B cases notified to SINAN, 97.65% had it infection status correctly classified by the new algorithm. Hepatitis B detection rate, gender and age-distribution were different among Brazilian regions. Overall, detection rates remained stable from 2007 to 2018, achieving their maximal value (56.1 cases per 100,000 inhabitants) in North region. However, there were different temporal trends related to different hepatitis B status and age. Women mean age at notification were always inferior to those of men and the difference was higher in Central-West, North and Northeast regions. CONCLUSION: Hepatitis B affects heterogeneously different populations throughout Brazilian territory. The differences shown in its temporal trends, regional, gender and age-related distribution helps the planning and evaluation of control measures in Brazil.