Genomic surveillance reveals dynamic shifts in the connectivity of COVID-19 epidemics.

The maturation of genomic surveillance in the past decade has enabled tracking of the emergence and spread of epidemics at an unprecedented level. During the COVID-19 pandemic, for example, genomic data revealed that local epidemics varied considerably in the frequency of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) lineage importation and persistence, likely due to a combination of COVID-19 restrictions and changing connectivity. Here, we show that local COVID-19 epidemics are driven by regional transmission, including across international boundaries, but can become increasingly connected to distant locations following the relaxation of public health interventions. By integrating genomic, mobility, and epidemiological data, we find abundant transmission occurring between both adjacent and distant locations, supported by dynamic mobility patterns. We find that changing connectivity significantly influences local COVID-19 incidence. Our findings demonstrate a complex meaning of "local" when investigating connected epidemics and emphasize the importance of collaborative interventions for pandemic prevention and mitigation.

Generation and transmission of interlineage recombinants in the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic.

We present evidence for multiple independent origins of recombinant SARS-CoV-2 viruses sampled from late 2020 and early 2021 in the United Kingdom. Their genomes carry single-nucleotide polymorphisms and deletions that are characteristic of the B.1.1.7 variant of concern but lack the full complement of lineage-defining mutations. Instead, the remainder of their genomes share contiguous genetic variation with non-B.1.1.7 viruses circulating in the same geographic area at the same time as the recombinants. In four instances, there was evidence for onward transmission of a recombinant-origin virus, including one transmission cluster of 45 sequenced cases over the course of 2 months. The inferred genomic locations of recombination breakpoints suggest that every community-transmitted recombinant virus inherited its spike region from a B.1.1.7 parental virus, consistent with a transmission advantage for B.1.1.7's set of mutations.

Emergence of an early SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in the United States.

The emergence of the COVID-19 epidemic in the United States (U.S.) went largely undetected due to inadequate testing. New Orleans experienced one of the earliest and fastest accelerating outbreaks, coinciding with Mardi Gras. To gain insight into the emergence of SARS-CoV-2 in the U.S. and how large-scale events accelerate transmission, we sequenced SARS-CoV-2 genomes during the first wave of the COVID-19 epidemic in Louisiana. We show that SARS-CoV-2 in Louisiana had limited diversity compared to other U.S. states and that one introduction of SARS-CoV-2 led to almost all of the early transmission in Louisiana. By analyzing mobility and genomic data, we show that SARS-CoV-2 was already present in New Orleans before Mardi Gras, and the festival dramatically accelerated transmission. Our study provides an understanding of how superspreading during large-scale events played a key role during the early outbreak in the U.S. and can greatly accelerate epidemics.

Emergence and rapid transmission of SARS-CoV-2 B.1.1.7 in the United States.

The highly transmissible B.1.1.7 variant of SARS-CoV-2, first identified in the United Kingdom, has gained a foothold across the world. Using S gene target failure (SGTF) and SARS-CoV-2 genomic sequencing, we investigated the prevalence and dynamics of this variant in the United States (US), tracking it back to its early emergence. We found that, while the fraction of B.1.1.7 varied by state, the variant increased at a logistic rate with a roughly weekly doubling rate and an increased transmission of 40%-50%. We revealed several independent introductions of B.1.1.7 into the US as early as late November 2020, with community transmission spreading it to most states within months. We show that the US is on a similar trajectory as other countries where B.1.1.7 became dominant, requiring immediate and decisive action to minimize COVID-19 morbidity and mortality.

Transmission, infectivity, and neutralization of a spike L452R SARS-CoV-2 variant.

We identified an emerging severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variant by viral whole-genome sequencing of 2,172 nasal/nasopharyngeal swab samples from 44 counties in California, a state in the western United States. Named B.1.427/B.1.429 to denote its two lineages, the variant emerged in May 2020 and increased from 0% to >50% of sequenced cases from September 2020 to January 2021, showing 18.6%-24% increased transmissibility relative to wild-type circulating strains. The variant carries three mutations in the spike protein, including an L452R substitution. We found 2-fold increased B.1.427/B.1.429 viral shedding in vivo and increased L452R pseudovirus infection of cell cultures and lung organoids, albeit decreased relative to pseudoviruses carrying the N501Y mutation common to variants B.1.1.7, B.1.351, and P.1. Antibody neutralization assays revealed 4.0- to 6.7-fold and 2.0-fold decreases in neutralizing titers from convalescent patients and vaccine recipients, respectively. The increased prevalence of a more transmissible variant in California exhibiting decreased antibody neutralization warrants further investigation.

Genomic Epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2 in Guangdong Province, China.

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is caused by SARS-CoV-2 infection and was first reported in central China in December 2019. Extensive molecular surveillance in Guangdong, China's most populous province, during early 2020 resulted in 1,388 reported RNA-positive cases from 1.6 million tests. In order to understand the molecular epidemiology and genetic diversity of SARS-CoV-2 in China, we generated 53 genomes from infected individuals in Guangdong using a combination of metagenomic sequencing and tiling amplicon approaches. Combined epidemiological and phylogenetic analyses indicate multiple independent introductions to Guangdong, although phylogenetic clustering is uncertain because of low virus genetic variation early in the pandemic. Our results illustrate how the timing, size, and duration of putative local transmission chains were constrained by national travel restrictions and by the province's large-scale intensive surveillance and intervention measures. Despite these successes, COVID-19 surveillance in Guangdong is still required, because the number of cases imported from other countries has increased.

Coast-to-Coast Spread of SARS-CoV-2 during the Early Epidemic in the United States.

The novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 was first detected in the Pacific Northwest region of the United States in January 2020, with subsequent COVID-19 outbreaks detected in all 50 states by early March. To uncover the sources of SARS-CoV-2 introductions and patterns of spread within the United States, we sequenced nine viral genomes from early reported COVID-19 patients in Connecticut. Our phylogenetic analysis places the majority of these genomes with viruses sequenced from Washington state. By coupling our genomic data with domestic and international travel patterns, we show that early SARS-CoV-2 transmission in Connecticut was likely driven by domestic introductions. Moreover, the risk of domestic importation to Connecticut exceeded that of international importation by mid-March regardless of our estimated effects of federal travel restrictions. This study provides evidence of widespread sustained transmission of SARS-CoV-2 within the United States and highlights the critical need for local surveillance.

Travel Surveillance and Genomics Uncover a Hidden Zika Outbreak during the Waning Epidemic.

The Zika epidemic in the Americas has challenged surveillance and control. As the epidemic appears to be waning, it is unclear whether transmission is still ongoing, which is exacerbated by discrepancies in reporting. To uncover locations with lingering outbreaks, we investigated travel-associated Zika cases to identify transmission not captured by reporting. We uncovered an unreported outbreak in Cuba during 2017, a year after peak transmission in neighboring islands. By sequencing Zika virus, we show that the establishment of the virus was delayed by a year and that the ensuing outbreak was sparked by long-lived lineages of Zika virus from other Caribbean islands. Our data suggest that, although mosquito control in Cuba may initially have been effective at mitigating Zika virus transmission, such measures need to be maintained to be effective. Our study highlights how Zika virus may still be "silently" spreading and provides a framework for understanding outbreak dynamics. VIDEO ABSTRACT.

Climate, demography, immunology, and virology combine to drive two decades of dengue virus dynamics in Cambodia.

The incidence of dengue virus disease has increased globally across the past half-century, with highest number of cases ever reported in 2019 and again in 2023. We analyzed climatological, epidemiological, and phylogenomic data to investigate drivers of two decades of dengue in Cambodia, an understudied endemic setting. Using epidemiological models fit to a 19-y dataset, we first demonstrate that climate-driven transmission alone is insufficient to explain three epidemics across the time series. We then use wavelet decomposition to highlight enhanced annual and multiannual synchronicity in dengue cycles between provinces in epidemic years, suggesting a role for climate in homogenizing dynamics across space and time. Assuming reported cases correspond to symptomatic secondary infections, we next use an age-structured catalytic model to estimate a declining force of infection for dengue through time, which elevates the mean age of reported cases in Cambodia. Reported cases in >70-y-old individuals in the 2019 epidemic are best explained when also allowing for waning multitypic immunity and repeat symptomatic infections in older patients. We support this work with phylogenetic analysis of 192 dengue virus (DENV) genomes that we sequenced between 2019 and 2022, which document emergence of DENV-2 Cosmopolitan Genotype-II into Cambodia. This lineage demonstrates phylogenetic homogeneity across wide geographic areas, consistent with invasion behavior and in contrast to high phylogenetic diversity exhibited by endemic DENV-1. Finally, we simulate an age-structured, mechanistic model of dengue dynamics to demonstrate how expansion of an antigenically distinct lineage that evades preexisting multitypic immunity effectively reproduces the older-age infections witnessed in our data.

Inference of Infectious Disease Transmission through a Relaxed Bottleneck Using Multiple Genomes Per Host.

In recent times, pathogen genome sequencing has become increasingly used to investigate infectious disease outbreaks. When genomic data is sampled densely enough amongst infected individuals, it can help resolve who infected whom. However, transmission analysis cannot rely solely on a phylogeny of the genomes but must account for the within-host evolution of the pathogen, which blurs the relationship between phylogenetic and transmission trees. When only a single genome is sampled for each host, the uncertainty about who infected whom can be quite high. Consequently, transmission analysis based on multiple genomes of the same pathogen per host has a clear potential for delivering more precise results, even though it is more laborious to achieve. Here, we present a new methodology that can use any number of genomes sampled from a set of individuals to reconstruct their transmission network. Furthermore, we remove the need for the assumption of a complete transmission bottleneck. We use simulated data to show that our method becomes more accurate as more genomes per host are provided, and that it can infer key infectious disease parameters such as the size of the transmission bottleneck, within-host growth rate, basic reproduction number, and sampling fraction. We demonstrate the usefulness of our method in applications to real datasets from an outbreak of Pseudomonas aeruginosa amongst cystic fibrosis patients and a nosocomial outbreak of Klebsiella pneumoniae.

Global spread characteristics of CTX-M-type extended-spectrum ß-lactamases: A genomic epidemiology analysis.

BACKGROUND: Extended-spectrum ß-lactamases (ESBLs) producing bacteria have spread worldwide and become a global public health concern. Plasmid-mediated transfer of ESBLs is an important route for resistance acquisition. METHODS: We collected 1345 complete sequences of plasmids containing CTX-Ms from public database. The global transmission pattern of plasmids and evolutionary dynamics of CTX-Ms have been inferred. We applied the pan-genome clustering based on plasmid genomes and evolution analysis to demonstrate the transmission events. FINDINGS: Totally, 48 CTX-Ms genotypes and 186 incompatible types of plasmids were identified. The geographical distribution of CTX-Ms showed significant differences across countries and continents. CTX-M-14 and CTX-M-55 were found to be the dominant genotypes in Asia, while CTX-M-1 played a leading role in Europe. The plasmids can be divided into 12 lineages, some of which forming distinct geographical clusters in Asia and Europe, while others forming hybrid populations. The Inc types of plasmids are lineage-specific, with the CTX-M-1_IncI1-I (Alpha) and CTX-M-65_IncFII (pHN7A8)/R being the dominant patterns of cross-host and cross-regional transmission. The IncI-I (Alpha) plasmids with the highest number, were presumed to form communication groups in Europe-Asia and Asia-America-Oceania, showing the transmission model as global dissemination and regional microevolution. Meanwhile, the main kinetic elements of blaCTX-Ms showed genotypic preferences. ISEcpl and IS26 were most frequently involved in the transfer of CTX-M-14 and CTX-M-65, respectively. IS15 has become a crucial participant in mediating the dissemination of blaCTX-Ms. Interestingly, blaTEM and blaCTX-Ms often coexisted in the same transposable unit. Furthermore, antibiotic resistance genes associated with aminoglycosides, sulfonamides and cephalosporins showed a relatively high frequency of synergistic effects with CTX-Ms. CONCLUSIONS: We recognized the dominant blaCTX-Ms and mainstream plasmids of different continents. The results of this study provide support for a more effective response to the risks associated with the evolution of blaCTX-Ms-bearing plasmids, and lay the foundation for genotype-specific epidemiological surveillance of resistance, which are of important public health implications.

Spatial scale of tuberculosis transmission in Lima, Peru.

Spatially targeted interventions may be effective alternatives to individual or population-based prevention strategies against tuberculosis (TB). However, their efficacy may depend on the mechanisms that lead to geographically constrained hotspots. Local TB incidence may reflect high levels of local transmission; conversely, they may point to frequent travel of community members to high-risk areas. We used whole-genome sequencing to explore patterns of TB incidence and transmission in Lima, Peru. Between 2009 and 2012, we recruited incident pulmonary TB patients and their household contacts, whom we followed for the occurrence of TB disease. We used whole-genome sequences of 2,712 Mycobacterial tuberculosis isolates from 2,440 patients to estimate pariwise genomic distances and compared these to the spatial distance between patients' residences. Genomic distances increased rapidly as spatial distances increased and remained high beyond 2 km of separation. Next, we divided the study catchment area into 1 × 1 km grid-cell surface units and used household spatial coordinates to locate each TB patient to a specific cell. We estimated cell-specific transmission by calculating the proportion of patients in each cell with a pairwise genomic distance of 10 or fewer single-nucleotide polymorphisms. We found that cell-specific TB incidence and local transmission varied widely but that cell-specific TB incidence did not correlate closely with our estimates of local transmission (Cohen's k = 0.27). These findings indicate that an understanding of the spatial heterogeneity in the relative proportion of TB due to local transmission may help guide the implementation of spatially targeted interventions.

Genomic Epidemiology of Treponema pallidum and Circulation of Strains With Diminished tprK Antigen Variation Capability in Seattle, 2021-2022.

BACKGROUND: The incidence of syphilis continues to increase in the United States, yet little is known about Treponema pallidum genomic epidemiology within American metropolitan areas. METHODS: We performed whole-genome sequencing and tprK deep sequencing of 28 T. pallidum-containing specimens, collected mostly from remnant Aptima swab specimens from 24 individuals from Seattle Sexual Health Clinic during 2021-2022. RESULTS: All 12 individuals infected with Nichols-lineage strains were men who have sex with men, while a specific SS14 cluster (mean, 0.33 single-nucleotide variant) included 1 man who has sex with women and 5 women. All T. pallidum strains sequenced were azithromycin resistant via 23S ribosomal RNA A2058G mutation. Identical T. pallidum genomic sequences were found in pharyngeal and rectal swab specimens taken concurrently from the same individuals. The tprK sequences were less variable between patient-matched specimens and between epidemiologically linked clusters. We detected a 528-base pair deletion in the tprK donor site locus, eliminating 9 donor sites, in T. pallidum genomes of 3 individuals with secondary syphilis, associated with diminution of TprK diversity. CONCLUSIONS: We developed an end-to-end workflow for public health genomic surveillance of T. pallidum from remnant Aptima swab specimens. tprK sequencing may assist in linking cases beyond routine T. pallidum genome sequencing. T. pallidum strains with deletions in tprK donor sites currently circulate and are associated with diminished TprK antigenic diversity.

Genomic epidemiology and evolution of rhinovirus in western Washington State, 2021-22.

BACKGROUND: Human rhinoviruses (RV) primarily cause the common cold, but infection outcomes vary from subclinical to severe cases, including asthma exacerbations and fatal pneumonia in immunocompromised individuals. To date, therapeutic strategies have been hindered by the high diversity of serotypes. Global surveillance efforts have traditionally focused on sequencing VP1 or VP2/VP4 genetic regions, leaving gaps in our understanding of RV genomic diversity. METHODS: We sequenced 1,078 RV genomes from nasal swabs of symptomatic and asymptomatic individuals to explore viral evolution during two epidemiologically distinct periods in Washington State: when the COVID-19 pandemic affected the circulation of other seasonal respiratory viruses except for RV (February - July 2021), and when the seasonal viruses reemerged with the severe RSV and influenza outbreak (November-December 2022). We constructed maximum likelihood and BEAST-phylodynamic trees to characterize intra-genotype evolution. RESULTS: We detected 99 of 168 known genotypes and observed inter-genotypic recombination and genotype cluster swapping from 2021 to 2022. We found a significant association between the presence of symptoms and viral load, but not with RV species or genotype. Phylodynamic trees, polyprotein selection pressure, and Shannon entropy revealed co-circulation of divergent clades within genotypes with high amino acid constraints throughout polyprotein. DISCUSSION: Our study underscores the dynamic nature of RV genomic epidemiology within a localized geographic region, as more than 20% of existing genotypes within each RV species co-circulated each studied month. Our findings also emphasize the importance of investigating correlations between rhinovirus genotypes and serotypes to understand long-term immunity and cross-protection.

Analysis of a Large Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (Alpha) Outbreak in a Catalan Prison Using Conventional and Genomic Epidemiology.

Enforcing strict protocols that prevent transmission of airborne infections in prisons is challenging. We examine a large severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 outbreak in a Catalan penitentiary center in February-April 2021, prior to vaccination deployment. The aim was to describe the evolution of the outbreak using classical and genomic epidemiology and the containment strategy applied. The outbreak was initially detected in 1 module but spread to 4, infecting 7 staff members and 140 incarcerated individuals, 6 of whom were hospitalized (4.4%). Genomic analysis confirmed a single origin (B.1.1.7). Contact tracing identified transmission vectors between modules and prevented further viral spread. In future similar scenarios, the control strategy described here may help limit transmission of airborne infections in correctional settings.

Genomic Epidemiology of Mycobacterium abscessus on the Island of Montréal Not Suggestive of Healthcare-associated Person-to-Person Transmission.

BACKGROUND: Mycobacterium abscessus complex (MABC), an opportunistic nontuberculous mycobacteria (NTM), can lead to poor clinical outcomes in pulmonary infections. Conflicting data exist on person-to-person transmission of MABC within and across healthcare facilities. To investigate further, a comprehensive retrospective study across five healthcare institutions on the Island of Montréal was undertaken. METHODS: We analyzed the genomes of 221 MABC isolates obtained from 115 individuals (2010-2018) to identify possible links. Genetic similarity, defined as ≤25 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), was investigated through a blinded epidemiological inquiry. RESULTS: Bioinformatics analyses identified 28 sequence types (STs), including globally observed dominant circulating clones (DCCs). Further analysis revealed 210 isolate pairs within the SNP threshold. Among these pairs, there was one possible lab contamination where isolates from different patients processed in the same lab differed by only 2 SNPs. There were 37 isolate pairs from patients who had provided specimens from the same hospital; however, epidemiological analysis found no evidence of healthcare-associated person-to-person transmission between these patients. Additionally, pan-genome analysis showed higher discriminatory power than core genome analysis for examining genomic similarity. CONCLUSIONS: Genomics alone is insufficient to establish MABC transmission, particularly considering the genetic similarity and wide distribution of DCCs, although pan-genome analysis has the potential to add further insight. Our findings indicate that MABC infections in Montréal are unlikely attributable to healthcare-associated person-to-person transmission.

Genomic Epidemiology of Large Blastomycosis Outbreak, Ontario, Canada, 2021.

Using phylogenomic analysis, we provide genomic epidemiology analysis of a large blastomycosis outbreak in Ontario, Canada, caused by Blastomyces gilchristii. The outbreak occurred in a locale where blastomycosis is rarely diagnosed, signaling a possible shift in geographically associated incidence patterns. Results elucidated fungal population genetic structure, enhancing understanding of the outbreak.

Recurrence, Microevolution, and Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Legionella pneumophila Sequence Type 1905, Portugal, 2014-2022.

We investigated molecular evolution and spatiotemporal dynamics of atypical Legionella pneumophila serogroup 1 sequence type 1905 and determined its long-term persistence and linkage to human disease in dispersed locations, far beyond the large 2014 outbreak epicenter in Portugal. Our finding highlights the need for public health interventions to prevent further disease spread.

Emergence of Poultry-Associated Human Salmonella enterica Serovar Abortusovis Infections, New South Wales, Australia.

Salmonella enterica serovar Abortusovis is a ovine-adapted pathogen that causes spontaneous abortion. Salmonella Abortusovis was reported in poultry in 2009 and has since been reported in human infections in New South Wales, Australia. Phylogenomic analysis revealed a clade of 51 closely related isolates from Australia originating in 2004. That clade was genetically distinct from ovine-associated isolates. The clade was widespread in New South Wales poultry production facilities but was only responsible for sporadic human infections. Some known virulence factors associated with human infections were only found in the poultry-associated clade, some of which were acquired through prophages and plasmids. Furthermore, the ovine-associated clade showed signs of genome decay, but the poultry-associated clade did not. Those genomic changes most likely led to differences in host range and disease type. Surveillance using the newly identified genetic markers will be vital for tracking Salmonella Abortusovis transmission in animals and to humans and preventing future outbreaks.

Bridging the gap between molecular and genomic epidemiology in tuberculosis: inferring MIRU-VNTR patterns from genomic data.

The transition from MIRU-VNTR-based epidemiology studies in tuberculosis (TB) to genomic epidemiology has transformed how we track transmission. However, short-read sequencing is poor at analyzing repetitive regions such as the MIRU-VNTR loci. This causes a gap between the new genomic data and the large amount of information stored in historical databases. Long-read sequencing could bridge this knowledge gap by allowing analysis of repetitive regions. However, the feasibility of extracting MIRU-VNTRs from long reads and linking them to historical data has not been evaluated. In our study, an in silico arm, consisting of inference of MIRU patterns from long-read sequences (using MIRUReader program), was compared with an experimental arm, involving standard amplification and fragment sizing. We analyzed overall performance on 39 isolates from South Africa and confirmed reproducibility in a sample enriched with 62 clustered cases from Spain. Finally, we ran 25 consecutive incident cases, demonstrating the feasibility of correctly assigning new clustered/orphan cases by linking data inferred from genomic analysis to MIRU-VNTR databases. Of the 3,024 loci analyzed, only 11 discrepancies (0.36%) were found between the two arms: three attributed to experimental error and eight to misassigned alleles from long-read sequencing. A second round of analysis of these discrepancies resulted in agreement between the experimental and in silico arms in all but one locus. Adjusting the MIRUReader program code allowed us to flag potential in silico misassignments due to suboptimal coverage or unfixed double alleles. Our study indicates that long-read sequencing could help address potential chronological and geographical gaps arising from the transition from molecular to genomic epidemiology of tuberculosis. IMPORTANCE: The transition from molecular epidemiology in tuberculosis (TB), based on the analysis of repetitive regions (VNTR-based genotyping), to genomic epidemiology transforms in the precision with which we track transmission. However, short-read sequencing, the most common method for performing genomic analysis, is poor at analyzing repetitive regions. This means that we face a gap between the new genomic data and the large amount of information stored in historical databases, which is also an obstacle to cross-national surveillance involving settings where only molecular data are available. Long-read sequencing could help bridge this knowledge gap by allowing analysis of repetitive regions. Our study demonstrates that MIRU-VNTR patterns can be successfully inferred from long-read sequences, allowing the correct assignment of new cases as clustered/orphan by linking new data extracted from genomic analysis to historical MIRU-VNTR databases. Our data may provide a starting point for bridging the knowledge gap between the molecular and genomic eras in tuberculosis epidemiology.