Hepatocellular carcinoma among patients with chronic hepatitis B in the indeterminate phase.

Hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection is a dynamic disease where patients progress through several stages defined by HBV e-antigen (HBeAg) status, HBV-DNA levels and transaminase elevations, with antiviral therapy indicated only in specific stages. However, some patients cannot be classified into one of the stages and are said to fall into an 'indeterminate phase' or 'grey zone'. Exact definitions of the indeterminate phase vary from guideline to guideline as a result of different cut-off values for biomarker measurements. Data suggest that as many as 50% of HBV patients may be in an indeterminate phase and may not rapidly transition out of this phase. Clinical data that suggest these patients are at increased risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) are complemented by molecular evidence of integrations of HBV-DNA into the host genome, chromosomal translocations and immune activation despite liver enzymes that may suggest lack of inflammation. Antiviral therapy reduces these hepatocarcinogenic mechanisms and is reflected in a reduction of fibrosis and HCC risk. We review key data on patients in the indeterminate phase, with emphasis on HCC as an outcome. We take a holistic approach and link new biological data with clinical observations as well as examine the potential role of antiviral therapy in reducing HCC risk among patients in the indeterminate phase. With the availability of safe and effective oral antivirals, consideration must be given as to how much residual risk of HCC should be tolerated among patients in the indeterminate phase.

Treatment decisions based on HBV DNA.

The most common cause of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) worldwide is chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection (CHB). Long-term suppression of HBV replication by antiviral treatment reduces the risk of HCC and mortality. Nonetheless, only 2.2% of CHB patients globally received the treatment in 2019. Current international CHB guidelines recommend antiviral treatment only in subsets of patients with clear evidence of liver damage as evidenced by elevation of alanine aminotransferase (ALT). This review aims to provide existing evidence that the risk of HCC is significantly associated with serum levels of HBV DNA, and the association is non-linear parabolic, in both untreated and treated CHB patients, regardless of HBeAg status or ALT levels. Therefore, the decision for the antiviral treatment should be based on serum HBV DNA levels and age, rather than ALT levels or liver biopsy, to reduce or prevent the risk of HCC in CHB patients. The potential impact and cost-effectiveness data on early antiviral treatment initiation were also collated.

Clinical and histological features of patients with chronic hepatitis B virus infection in the grey zone.

Chronic HBV infection patients who do not conform to any of the usual immune states are regarded as 'grey zone' patients. We aimed to investigate the proportion of chronic HBV infection patients in the grey zone, and evaluate the clinical characteristics and liver pathological changes in grey zone patients. Clinical data of 1391 treatment-naive chronic HBV infection patients with liver biopsy were collected. Natural history of HBV infection was determined based on European Association for the Study of the Liver (EASL) 2017, American Association for the Study of Liver Diseases (AASLD) 2018 and Chinese 2019 guidelines for the prevention and treatment of chronic HBV infection. Significant liver histological changes and associated risk factors of normal ALT grey zone patients were analysed. According to EASL, AASLD and Chinese criteria, there were 50.0%, 28% and 37.4% chronic HBV infection patients in the grey zone. Among the 353 grey zone patients with normal ALT, 72.4% had significant liver histological changes. ALT (optimal cut-off value 25 IU/L) and HBV DNA (optimal cut-off value 18,000 IU/mL) were independent risk factors of significant liver histological abnormalities. In conclusion, a substantial proportion of grey zone patients with normal ALT have significant liver histological changes that can be predicted by levels of serum ALT and HBV DNA. These results provide guidance of antiviral treatment in grey zone patients.

Passive leg raising-induced changes in pulse pressure variation to assess fluid responsiveness in mechanically ventilated patients: a multicentre prospective observational study.

BACKGROUND: Passive leg raising-induced changes in cardiac index can be used to predict fluid responsiveness. We investigated whether passive leg raising-induced changes in pulse pressure variation (ΔPPVPLR) can also predict fluid responsiveness in mechanically ventilated patients. METHODS: In this multicentre prospective observational study, we included 270 critically ill patients on mechanical ventilation in whom volume expansion was indicated because of acute circulatory failure. We did not include patients with cardiac arrythmias. Cardiac index and PPV were measured before/during a passive leg raising test and before/after volume expansion. A volume expansion-induced increase in cardiac index of >15% defined fluid responsiveness. To investigate whether ΔPPVPLR can predict fluid responsiveness, we determined areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUROCs) and grey zones for relative and absolute ΔPPVPLR. RESULTS: Of the 270 patients, 238 (88%) were on controlled mechanical ventilation with no spontaneous breathing activity and 32 (12%) were on pressure support ventilation. The median tidal volume was 7.1 (inter-quartile range [IQR], 6.6-7.6) ml kg-1 ideal body weight. One hundred sixty-four patients (61%) were fluid responders. Relative and absolute ΔPPVPLR predicted fluid responsiveness with an AUROC of 0.92 (95% confidence interval [95% CI], 0.88-0.95; P<0.001) each. The grey zone for relative and absolute ΔPPVPLR included 4.8% and 22.6% of patients, respectively. These results were not affected by ventilatory mode and baseline characteristics (type of shock, centre, vasoactive treatment). CONCLUSIONS: Passive leg raising-induced changes in pulse pressure variation accurately predict fluid responsiveness with a small grey zone in critically ill patients on mechanical ventilation. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: NCT03225378.

The performance of grey zone in common foetal aneuploidy screening by semiconductor sequencing.

A total of 15,267 pregnancies were tested by NIPT in this study. Grey zone (z score: 2.58 ∼ 4 and -4∼-2.58) was set for screening out aneuploidy 21, 18 and 13. Cases with z score located in the grey zone were retested starting from DNA extraction. The chi-squared test and/or the Fisher's exact test were used to compare variables. One hundred and eight screening-positive samples in the first run of NIPT were common trisomies 21 (N = 83), trisomies18 (N = 13) or trisomies 13 (N = 12), with PPVs of 87.18%, 76.92%, and 30% respectively. For the cases in the grey zone, most of them (67.15%, 184/274) were reported with Z score of Chromosome 21 in the grey zone and 176 were reclassified as negative by the second run of NIPT; while 3 cases reclassified as trisomy 21 and 1 case reclassified as trisomy 13 were finally confirmed by karyotyping analysis, with PPV 25% and 20% respectively. The grey zone and the second run of NIPT in this study showed that the grey zone and second run NIPT approach was able to accurately help categorise cases as negative and positive. Invasive diagnosis is recommended to prevent false negative aneuploidies for samples located in the special z score scope of 2.58-3 for two runs of NIPT. IMPACT STATEMENTWhat is already known on this subject? Grey zone was widely used in NIPT. The performance of grey zone of clinical samples on Illumina HiSeq 2000 instrument has been reported, and the performance of grey zone on some mainstream sequencers with simulated samples has also been summarised. Reported treatments for samples located in the grey zone in NIPT usually included being classified into 'unclassified' or 'no call' followed by following up and/or karyotyping analysis.What do the results of this study add? This study investigated the performance of the grey zone on Ion Proton DA8600 with clinical samples; and it present an alternative treatment for samples in grey zone that reclassified them as negative or positive by the second run of sequencing.What are the implications of these findings for clinical practice and/or further research? Our own data for the performance of the grey zone in the cfDNA assay on the semiconductor sequencing platform might provide raw materials for other researchers' meta-analysis, cohort study, or other studies. Details of Z score distributions of chromosomes in grey zone, results of the second run of NIPT for samples in the grey zone, and false negative samples in the grey zone would help lab technicians better analyse the NIPT results and help doctors to improve genetic counselling.

Distribution and clinical characteristics of patients with chronic hepatitis B virus infection in the grey zone.

A substantial proportion of patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) who do not fit into any of the usual immune states are considered to be in the 'grey zone (GZ)'. We aimed to investigate the distribution and characteristics of GZ in a large cohort of CHB patients. Four thousand seven hundred and fifty-nine consecutive treatment-naïve CHB patients were enrolled. The immune states were defined based on AASLD 2018 Hepatitis B Guidance. GZ CHB patients were classified into four groups: HBeAg positive, normal ALT levels and serum HBV DNA ≤106  IU/ml (GZ-A); HBeAg positive, elevated ALT levels and serum HBV DNA ≤2 × 104  IU/ml (GZ-B); HBeAg negative, normal ALT levels and serum HBV DNA ≥2 × 103  IU/ml (GZ-C); HBeAg negative, elevated ALT levels and serum HBV DNA ≤2 × 103  IU/ml (GZ-D). The distributions of different immune states were: 233 (4.90%) patients in immune-tolerant phase, 941 (19.77%) patients in HBeAg-positive immune active phase, 1,717 (36.08%) patients in inactive phase and 546 (11.47%) patients in HBeAg-negative immune active phase. Of note, 1,322 (27.78%) patients did not fit into any of above phases and were defined as the GZ. A high proportion of patients in GZ-B had advanced fibrosis (33.3%) or cirrhosis (25.8%). Older age, HBeAg-positive status and higher ALT levels were independently risk factors of advanced disease in GZ CHB patients. Therefore, our results revealed that more than a quarter of CHB patients were classified into the GZ and a high proportion of patients in GZ-B had advanced fibrosis or even cirrhosis.

Grey zone amyloid burden affects memory function: the SCIENCe project.

PURPOSE: To determine thresholds for amyloid beta pathology and evaluate associations with longitudinal memory performance with the aim to identify a grey zone of early amyloid beta accumulation and investigate its clinical relevance. METHODS: We included 162 cognitively normal participants with subjective cognitive decline from the SCIENCe cohort (64 ± 8 years, 38% F, MMSE 29 ± 1). Each underwent a dynamic [18F] florbetapir PET scan, a T1-weighted MRI scan and longitudinal memory assessments (RAVLT delayed recall, n = 655 examinations). PET scans were visually assessed as amyloid positive/negative. Additionally, we calculated the mean binding potential (BPND) and standardized uptake value ratio (SUVr50-70) for an a priori defined composite region of interest. We determined six amyloid positivity thresholds using various data-driven methods (resulting thresholds: BPND 0.19/0.23/0.29; SUVr 1.28/1.34/1.43). We used Cohen's kappa to analyse concordance between thresholds and visual assessment. Next, we used quantiles to divide the sample into two to five subgroups of equal numbers (median, tertiles, quartiles, quintiles), and operationalized a grey zone as the range between the thresholds (0.19-0.29 BPND/1.28-1.43 SUVr). We used linear mixed models to determine associations between thresholds and memory slope. RESULTS: As determined by visual assessment, 24% of 162 individuals were amyloid positive. Concordance with visual assessment was comparable but slightly higher for BPND thresholds (range kappa 0.65-0.70 versus 0.60-0.63). All thresholds predicted memory decline (range beta - 0.29 to - 0.21, all p < 0.05). Analyses in subgroups showed memory slopes gradually became steeper with higher amyloid load (all p for trend < 0.05). Participants with a low amyloid burden benefited from a practice effect (i.e. increase in memory), whilst high amyloid burden was associated with memory decline. Memory slopes of individuals in the grey zone were intermediate. CONCLUSION: We provide evidence that not only high but also grey zone amyloid burden subtly impacts memory function. Therefore, in case a binary classification is required, we suggest using a relatively low threshold which includes grey zone amyloid pathology.

Composite and sequential lymphoma between classical Hodgkin lymphoma and primary mediastinal lymphoma/diffuse large B-cell lymphoma, a clinico-pathological series of 25 cases.

Composite and sequential lymphomas involving both classical Hodgkin lymphoma (CHL) and primary mediastinal B-cell lymphoma (PMBCL) are rare phenomena. Beyond the relevant biological interest raised by these cases, treatments and outcome data are poorly covered in the recent literature. This retrospective analysis describes the pathological and clinical characteristics of 10 composite and 15 sequential cases included after a central pathological review. At diagnosis, 70% of the composite lymphomas presented a disseminated and extranodal disease. Among the 15 sequential lymphomas, 12 were CHL at first occurrence and three were PMBCL. Based on their clinical evolution, these sequential lymphomas could be divided into early (i.e., diagnosis of second lymphoma within a year) and late [(i.e., a second lymphoma occurrence occurring after a long period of complete remission]). All composite cases were alive in complete remission after a median follow-up of 34 months. If the early sequential lymphoma presented a particularly poor outcome with a median overall survival shorter than one year, the late cases were efficiently salvaged. Further molecular studies are needed to describe the underlying biology of these rare diseases, possibly representing the extreme of tumour cell plasticity found in grey-zone lymphoma.

Diagnosis of Hodgkin lymphoma in the modern era.

The Hodgkin lymphomas are a family of unique lymphoma subtypes, in which the nature of the neoplastic cell was enigmatic for many years. Much of the mystery has been solved, with all forms now considered to be of B-cell origin, in most cases of germinal centre derivation. Today we recognize Hodgkin lymphoma as an eponym that encompasses multiple entities. One of the unifying themes is the major contribution from the tumour microenvironment. Both the character of the neoplastic cells and the nature of the immune environment are critical to accurate diagnosis. Moreover, an understanding of the molecular alterations that characterize both the neoplastic cells and their microenvironment have led to therapeutic advances, targeting both neoplastic and reactive components. Other conditions may foster a similar inflammatory milieu and lead to lymphoproliferations that mimic the Hodgkin lymphomas. In this review we provide an update on the diagnostic features of the various subtypes and include additional information relevant for prognostic evaluation and investigation of potential therapeutic targets. Additionally, we also discuss those conditions that often cause confusion in diagnosis and need to be distinguished from the Hodgkin lymphomas.

Clinical outcomes and management of patients with chronic hepatitis B and liver stiffness measurement in the grey zone.

BACKGROUND: A significant number of patients have liver stiffness measurements in the grey zone where liver biopsy is recommended. AIMS: To study chronic hepatitis B patients with initial liver stiffness measurements in the grey zone with regards to rates of liver biopsy, repeat liver stiffness measurements and outcomes. METHODS: Consecutive chronic hepatitis B patients who underwent transient elastography from August 2006 to July 2017 were retrospectively studied. Liver-related events were defined as hepatocellular carcinoma or cirrhotic complications. Grey zone was defined as liver stiffness measurements: 6.1-9.0 kPa (normal ALT) or 7.6-12.0 kPa (ALT 1-5 × upper limit of normal) on M-probe and 6.9-10.0 kPa on XL-probe. RESULTS: Of the 3212 patients analysed, 837 (26%) had initial liver stiffness measurements in grey zone. Only 3.6% of grey zone patients proceeded to liver biopsy within 6 months of transient elastography, of which 33% had METAVIR F3-4 fibrosis. Repeat liver stiffness measurements was performed in 44% of grey zone patients. Liver biopsy and repeat liver stiffness measurements prompted change in management in 47% and 31% of patients respectively. Independent predictors for liver-related events in grey zone patients included increased age, low albumin and low platelet count. Liver-related events rates were increased (9%-17%) in patients with METAVIR > F2 fibrosis on biopsy or repeat liver stiffness measurements which did not improve. CONCLUSIONS: Chronic hepatitis B patients with initial liver stiffness measurements in the grey zone rarely proceed to a clarifying liver biopsy which would reveal advanced fibrosis or cirrhosis in one-third of patients. Both liver biopsy and repeat liver stiffness measurements in grey zone patients have clinical utility in prompting changes in management and providing prognostic information.

Excellent Outcomes of Grey Zone Lymphoma: Case Series of Paediatric Patients Treated at a Single Centre.

Our objective was to review clinical presentation, treatment protocol used and its efficacy and effectiveness in patients of grey zone lymphoma during last 5 years at our centre. A retrospective chart review of children below 18 years of age was done from 2011 to 2016. A proforma was devised for this purpose and the findings of cases detected during the specified period were noted over it. We treated 4 cases, all with a diagnosis of Grey Zone Lymphoma of ages 13, 13, 15 and 7 years at presentation and all were males. Two patients had stage II and the other two had stage III disease. None had a mediastinal mass. All patients were treated according to UKCCSG NHL guidelines. Tumour lysis syndrome was not observed in any child. All tolerated chemotherapy very well and achieved complete remission. No patient died of the disease or any complication and all are well on their latest follow ups. To conclude from excellent outcomes in our case series, we recommend that children with Grey Zone Lymphoma should be treated according to Non-Hodgkin Lymphoma treatment guidelines. However we need to have more prospective studies, so that treatment guidelines can be established.

Evidence for the role of FMR1 gray zone alleles as a risk factor for parkinsonism in females.

Background and Objective There is convincing evidence that small CGG expansion (41-54 repeats): FMR1 "gray zone" alleles (GZ) contribute to the risk of parkinsonism in males, but there is insufficient corresponding data in females. This study intends to fill this gap. Methods We screened whole-blood-derived DNA from a cohort of 601 females diagnosed with idiopathic PD, and from dry Guthrie blood spots from a local sample of 1,005 female newborns (population controls), for the size of the FMR1 CGG repeat using a PCR technique. Results We found a significant excess (8.2%) of GZ carriers compared with 5.2% in the control sample, with a P value of 0.009 for the difference in proportions. Conclusion FMR1 gray zone alleles are a significant risk factor for parkinsonism in females. These population data and occasional reports of FXTAS-like or parkinsonian manifestations in carriers suggest possible mechanisms whereby the effects of these alleles synergize with the existing pathologies underpinning parkinsonism. © 2018 International Parkinson and Movement Disorder Society.

Grey zone lymphoma with features intermediate between diffuse large B-cell lymphoma and classical Hodgkin lymphoma: a clinicopathological study of 14 Epstein-Barr virus-positive cases.

AIMS: To investigate the clinicopathological features of Epstein-Barr virus (EBV)-positive grey zone lymphoma (GZL) with features intermediate between diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL) and classical Hodgkin lymphoma (CHL). METHODS AND RESULTS: We investigated the clinicopathological features of 14 cases of EBV-positive GZL in Japan. The control group included 173 cases of EBV-positive CHL and 64 cases of EBV-positive DLBCL of the elderly (polymorphous type). The patients were 10 men and four women with a median age of 62 years. Twelve patients (86%) had advanced clinical stage, 11 (79%) had B-symptoms, eight (57%) had mediastinal disease, 10 (71%) had elevated serum lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) levels, and five (36%) had thrombocytopenia. All cases had CHL-like morphology but strongly expressed at least one B-cell marker. The neoplastic cells were Hodgkin and Reed-Sternberg-like cells, but with a large number of mononuclear variants. EBV-positive GZL patients were more significantly more likely than EBV-positive CHL patients to have advanced clinical stage (P = 0.023), presence of B-symptoms (P = 0.011), elevated serum LDH levels (P = 0.047), thrombocytopenia (P = 0.042), and mediastinal involvement (P = 0.023). The progression-free survival (PFS) of EBV-positive GZL patients was significantly poorer than that of EBV-positive CHL patients (P = 0.043) but no difference from EBV-positive DLBCL patients was observed (P = 0.367). CONCLUSIONS: EBV-positive GZL patients have significantly worse PFS than EBV-positive CHL patients, and are significantly more likely to have adverse clinical parameters such as advanced clinical stage, presence of B-symptoms, and thrombocytopenia. Further studies are needed to better characterize this entity, which may require the development of innovative therapeutic strategies.

Kinship analysis: assessment of related vs unrelated based on defined pedigrees.

The study aimed at evaluating whether the adoption of enlarged batteries of STR markers in kinship analysis may provide LR values suitable for discrimination of relatives from non-relatives, in comparison to conventionally used STR panels. The presence of LD among some loci and its effects on LR values were also assessed. Three hundred pairs of related and unrelated individuals, each separated from 1-3 generations and residing in North Italy were genotyped with the Investigator HDplex STR kit (Qiagen), AmpFlSTR Identifiler (Applied Biosystems), and PowerPlex Fusion System (Promega). Loci and alleles shared between each pair and within groups of relatives were compared. Also, combined LR values with and without loci in LD, sensitivity and specificity were calculated for each commercial kit and their combinations. Full siblings displayed the largest number of shared loci and alleles, with a proportion of LR ≥ 10 results significantly higher than other degrees of relatedness and, consequently, with the lowest percentage of inconclusive and false negative results. Only minor differences were detected in the combined LR distributions, after including or omitting loci in LD. However, these became only appreciable when analyzing more distant relative pairs.The implementation of additional STRs into the LR calculation allowed a complete and robust discrimination between relatives and non-relatives only for full siblings, by removing the typical uncertainty of the "grey zone", while this was not achieved among other degrees of relatedness. Furthermore, the presence of loci in LD seems to not significantly affect LR distributions within each generation.

[Mediastinal lymphomas]. / Lymphome des Mediastinums.

Lymphomas infiltrating the mediastinum are a challenge for the treating physician as well as for the pathological diagnostics. The clinical scenario is often an emergency situation, while the pathologist is usually confronted only with small biopsy samples. Classical Hodgkin's lymphoma is by far the most frequently occurring lymphoma in the mediastinum and predominantly the nodular sclerosis subtype. In small and very sclerotic specimens it can be difficult to morphologically detect Hodgkin and Reed-Sternberg cells and to identify the characteristic phenotype by immunohistochemistry. Primary mediastinal large B­cell lymphomas should be distinguished from classical Hodgkin's lymphomas as the treatment is different. This is characterized by the detection of sheets of blast cells, which immunohistochemically show a strong B­cell phenotype (positivity for CD20 and CD79a), while CD30 can also often be expressed. The intimate biological relationship between classical Hodgkin's lymphomas and mediastinal large B­cell lymphomas is illustrated by the existence of B­cell lymphomas with intermediate features (so-called mediastinal grey zone lymphomas). It is important to recognize and diagnose these lymphomas as they are associated with a slightly inferior prognosis. Extranodal thymic marginal zone lymphomas of the mucosa-associated lymphoid tissue (MALT) type are a rare form of lymphoma encountered in the mediastinum, which can be associated with autoimmune diseases. T­lymphoblastic lymphomas and leukemia, which occur predominantly in children and young adults, represent a rapidly growing precursor cell neoplasia and must be distinguished from thymomas in the differential diagnostics as well as from normal and hyperplastic thymus glands.

Using a latent class model to refine risk stratification in multiple myeloma.

In multiple myeloma research, the GEP70 model is known to be capable of predicting a high risk patient group for disease progression based on the expression levels of 70 selected genes measured at baseline. The model consists of a continuous gene score that is a linear combination of the 70 genes along with a cutoff, such that patients with a score greater than the cutoff are categorized as high risk and otherwise low risk for disease progression. However, the continuous gene score may be confusing at times because of its open range nature. In addition, the present two-group model is sensitive to scores falling close to its cutoff. To facilitate patients' understanding of their prognosis, it is desirable to convert the continuous score into a probability that has an easier interpretation. In this article, we employ a latent class model to address this issue, and we also propose a superior grey zone model to refine the current risk stratification associated with the GEP70 model. Lastly, we demonstrate the robustness of the grey zone model with results from a simulation study.

Necessity of antiviral treatment for patients with chronic hepatitis B in the grey zone based on liver pathology analysis.

OBJECTIVE: 28-55% of chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients belong to the grey zone (GZ). By analyzing the pathological characteristics of the liver of patients in the GZ, this study clarified whether the patients in the GZ need anti-hepatitis B virus treatment. METHOD: We reviewed 324 cases of liver pathology that underwent liver biopsy between 2011 and 2022. According to the total score of inflammation G, 0-6 points are classified as mild, 7-12 points are classified as moderate, and 13-18 points are classified as severe. According to the total score of fibrosis F, 0-2 is mild, 3-4 is moderate, and 5-6 is severe. Significant histological diseases (SHD) are defined as the presence of inflammation G ≥ 6 and/or fibrosis F ≥ 2 in liver biopsy specimens. RESULT: 324 GZ patients were scored using the Ishak method, with G7-18 accounting for 9%, F3-6 accounting for 19.2%, and SHD accounting for 37%. The inflammation, fibrosis, and SHD in the HBeAg (+) group were more pronounced than those in the HBeAg (-) group. Among the GZ-A ∼ GZ-D subgroups, the highest proportion of SHD in the GZ-B group was 58.35%. CONCLUSION: More than 1/3 of the patients in GZ need anti-hepatitis B virus treatment. More than half of GZ-B patients need anti-hepatitis B virus treatment. It is very necessary to carry out rescue anti-hepatitis B virus treatment for patients in GZ as soon as possible.

HBcrAg-based risk score performs better than the HBV DNA-based scores for HCC prediction in grey zone patients who are HBeAg-negative.

Background & Aims: Risk scores have been designed to predict the development of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in treatment-naive patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB). However, little is known about their predictive accuracy in HBeAg-negative patients in the grey zone (GZ). We aimed to develop a HBcrAg-based HCC risk score and explore whether it outperforms other risk scores in GZ patients. Methods: Two retrospective cohorts of HBeAg-negative patients with American Association for the Study of Liver Diseases-defined GZ were established for derivation and validation (Taiwanese, N = 911; Japanese, N = 806). All of them were non-cirrhotic at baseline and remained treatment-naive during the follow-up. The primary endpoint was HCC development. Results: In a median follow-up period of 15.5 years, 85 patients developed HCC in the derivation cohort. We found that age, sex, alanine aminotransferase, platelet count, and HBcrAg, but not HBV DNA levels, were independent predictors and a 20-point GZ-HCC score was developed accordingly. The 10-year and 15-year area under the ROC curve (AUROC) ranged from 0.83 to 0.86, which outperformed the HBV DNA-based HCC risk scores, including REACH-B and GAG-HCC scores (AUROC ranging from 0.66 to 0.74). The better performance was also validated in EASL- and Asian Pacific Association for the Study of the Liver-defined GZ patients. These findings remained consistent in the validation cohort. Finally, the low-risk and high-risk GZ patients (stratified by a score of 8) had an HCC risk close to inactive CHB and immune-active CHB patients, respectively, in both cohorts. Conclusions: The HBcrAg-based GZ-HCC score predicts HCC better than other HBV DNA-based risk scores in GZ patients who are HBeAg-negative patients, which may help optimise their clinical management. Impact and implications: We have developed a risk score based on HBcrAg, which has shown better predictive ability for HCC compared with other risk scores based on HBV DNA. Using a score of 8, GZ patients can be classified into low- and high-risk groups, which can guide follow up and early treatment, respectively. This validated risk score is a valuable tool for optimising the management of GZ patients who are HBeAg-negative.