[Quick Exit or Deliberate Loosening? On the Future of Contact Restrictions in the COVID-19Crisis]. / Schneller Ausstieg oder bedachte Lockerung?: Zur Zukunft von Kontaktbeschränkungen in der COVID-19-Krise.

How important is the relaxation of contact restrictions for the recovery of the German economy and what conclusions can be drawn for the appropriate level of contact restrictions in the coming months? In considering these issues, an attempt will be made to assess what significance the contact restriction measures introduced by the federal and state governments since mid-March 2020 will actually have for the current slump in economic activity in Germany. In addition, the various plausible scenarios for the spread and containment of infection are presented with different options for easing contact restrictions.

Clinical impact and cost-effectiveness of the updated COVID-19 mRNA Autumn 2023 vaccines in Germany.

OBJECTIVES: To assess the potential clinical impact and cost-effectiveness of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) mRNA vaccines updated for Autumn 2023 in adults aged ≥60 years and high-risk persons aged 30-59 years in Germany over a 1-year analytic time horizon (September 2023-August 2024). METHODS: A compartmental Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered model was updated and adapted to the German market. Numbers of symptomatic infections, a number of COVID-19 related hospitalizations and deaths, costs, and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) gained were calculated using a decision tree model. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of an Autumn 2023 Moderna updated COVID-19 (mRNA-1273.815) vaccine was compared to no additional vaccination. Potential differences between the mRNA-1273.815 and the Autumn Pfizer-BioNTech updated COVID-19 (XBB.1.5 BNT162b2) vaccines, as well as societal return on investment for the mRNA-1273.815 vaccine relative to no vaccination, were also examined. RESULTS: Compared to no autumn vaccination, the mRNA-1273.815 campaign is predicted to prevent approximately 1,697,900 symptomatic infections, 85,400 hospitalizations, and 4,100 deaths. Compared to an XBB.1.5 BNT162b2 campaign, the mRNA-1273.815 campaign is also predicted to prevent approximately 90,100 symptomatic infections, 3,500 hospitalizations, and 160 deaths. Across both analyses we found the mRNA-1273.815 campaign to be dominant. CONCLUSIONS: The mRNA-1273.815 vaccine can be considered cost-effective relative to the XBB.1.5 BNT162b2 vaccine and highly likely to provide more benefits and save costs compared to no vaccine in Germany, and to offer high societal return on investment.

Assessing the fiscal consequences of novel and existing treatments for triple negative breast cancer in Switzerland by applying a government perspective framework.

BACKGROUND: Triple Negative Breast Cancer (TNBC) is an aggressive subtype of breast cancer that can impact patients' employment and workforce participation. This study estimates how the employment effects of TNBC impact government tax revenue and public benefits expenditure in Switzerland, representing the fiscal burden of disease (FBoD), and likely consequences of introducing new treatment options. METHODS: A four-state cohort model was used to calculate fiscal effects for two treatments: Neoadjuvant pembrolizumab plus chemotherapy followed by adjuvant pembrolizumab monotherapy (P + C→P) and neoadjuvant chemotherapy alone (C). Lifetime present values of tax revenue, social benefit payments, and healthcare costs were calculated for the average population and those undergoing treatment to assess the FBoD. RESULTS: An average TNBC patient treated with C and P + C→P is expected to generate CHF128,999 and CHF97,008 less tax than the average population, respectively, and require increased social benefit payments. Compared to C, 75% of the incremental healthcare costs of P + C→P are estimated to be offset through tax revenue gains. CONCLUSIONS: This analysis demonstrates that 75% of the additional costs of a new TNBC treatment option can be offset by gains in tax revenue. Fiscal analysis can be a useful tool to complement existing methods for evaluating new treatments.

Cost effectiveness of implantable cardioverter defibrillators for 1.5 primary prevention of sudden cardiac arrest in China: an analysis from the Improve SCA study.

OBJECTIVES: Implantable cardioverter defibrillator (ICDs) for primary prevention (PP) of sudden cardiac arrest (SCA) is underutilized in developing countries. The Improve SCA study has identified a subset of 1.5 primary prevention (1.5PP) patients with a higher risk of SCA and a significant mortality benefit from ICD therapy. From the perspective of China's healthcare system, we evaluated the cost-effectiveness of ICD therapy vs. no ICD therapy among 1.5PP patients with a view to informing clinical and policy decisions. METHODS: A published Markov model was adjusted and verified to simulate the course of the disease and describe different health states of 1.5PP patients. The patient characteristics, mortality, utility and complication estimates were obtained from the Improve SCA study and other literature. Cost inputs were sourced from government tender prices, medical service prices and clinical experts' surveys in 9 Chinese public hospitals. For both ICD and no ICD therapy, the total medical costs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) were modelled over a lifetime horizon and the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was calculated. Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed to assess the uncertainty of the model parameters. We used the willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold recommended by China Guidelines for Pharmacoeconomic Evaluations, one to three times China's GDP per capita (CNY85,698-CNY257,094) in 2022 Chinese Yuan. RESULTS: The incremental cost effectiveness ratio (ICER) of ICD therapy compared to no ICD therapy is 139,652 CNY/QALY, which is about 1-2 times China's GDP per capita. The probability that ICD therapy is cost effective was 92.1%. Results from sensitivity analysis supported the findings of the base case. CONCLUSIONS: ICD therapy compared to no ICD therapy is cost-effective for the 1.5PP patients in China.

Vaccine preparation time, errors, satisfaction, and preference of prefilled syringes versus RSV vaccines requiring reconstitution: randomized, time and motion study.

AIM: The current study compared preparation time, errors, satisfaction, and preference for a prefilled syringe (PFS) versus two RSV vaccines requiring reconstitution (VRR1 and VRR2) in a randomized, single-blinded time and motion study. METHODS: Pharmacists, nurses, and pharmacy technicians were randomized to a preparation sequence of the three vaccines. Participants read instructions, then consecutively prepared the three vaccines with a 3-5-min washout period in between. Preparations were video recorded and reviewed by a trained pharmacist for preparation time and errors using predefined, vaccine-specific checklists. Participant demographics, satisfaction with vaccine preparation, and vaccine preference were recorded. Within-subjects analysis of variance was used to compare preparation time. Mixed-effects Poisson and ordered logistic regression models were used to compare the number of preparation errors and satisfaction scores, respectively. RESULTS: Sixty-three pharmacists (60%), nurses (35%), and pharmacy technicians (5%) participated at four sites in the United States. The least squares mean preparation time per dose for PFS was 141.8 s (95% CI = 156.8-126.7; p <.0001) faster than for VRR1, 103.6 s (95% CI = 118.7-88.5; p <.0001) faster than for VRR2, and 122.7 s (95% CI = 134.2-111.2; p <.0001) faster than the pooled VRRs. Overall satisfaction (combined "Very" and "Extremely") was 87.3% for PFS, 28.6% for VRR1, and 47.6% for VRR2. Most participants (81.0%) preferred the PFS vaccine. LIMITATIONS: The study is limited by the inability to completely blind observers. To minimize the effects of order, we utilized a 3-sequence block design; however, the order in which the vaccines were prepared may have affected outcomes. Participants were assessed once, whereas if repeated preparations were performed there may have been trained efficiencies gained for each vaccine. CONCLUSION: PFS vaccines can greatly simplify the vaccine preparation process, allowing administrators to prepare almost four times more doses per hour than with vial and syringe systems.

Reconciling Seemingly Contradictory Results from the Oregon Health Insurance Experiment and the Massachusetts Health Reform.

A headline result from the Oregon Health Insurance Experiment is that emergency room (ER) utilization increased. A seemingly contradictory result from the Massachusetts health reform is that ER utilization decreased. I reconcile both results by identifying treatment effect heterogeneity within the Oregon experiment and extrapolating it to Massachusetts. Even though Oregon compliers increased their ER utilization, they were adversely selected relative to Oregon never takers, who would have decreased their ER utilization. Massachusetts expanded coverage from a higher level to healthier compliers. Therefore, Massachusetts compliers are comparable to a subset of Oregon never takers, which can reconcile the results.

The potential clinical impact and cost-effectiveness of the updated COVID-19 mRNA fall 2023 vaccines in the United States.

AIMS: To assess the potential clinical impact and cost-effectiveness of COVID-19 mRNA vaccines updated for fall 2023 in adults aged ≥18 years over a 1-year analytic time horizon (September 2023-August 2024). MATERIALS AND METHODS: A compartmental Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered model was updated to reflect COVID-19 cases in summer 2023. The numbers of symptomatic infections, COVID-19-related hospitalizations and deaths, and costs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) gained were calculated using a decision tree model. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of a Moderna updated mRNA fall 2023 vaccine (Moderna Fall Campaign) was compared to no additional vaccination. Potential differences between the Moderna and the Pfizer-BioNTech fall 2023 vaccines were also examined. RESULTS: Base case results suggest that the Moderna Fall Campaign would decrease the expected 64.2 million symptomatic infections by 7.2 million (11%) to 57.0 million. COVID-19-related hospitalizations and deaths are expected to decline by 343,000 (-29%) and 50,500 (-33%), respectively. The Moderna Fall Campaign would increase QALYs by 740,880 and healthcare costs by $5.7 billion relative to no vaccine, yielding an ICER of $7700 per QALY gained. Using a societal cost perspective, the ICER is $2100. Sensitivity analyses suggest that vaccine effectiveness, COVID-19 incidence, hospitalization rates, and costs drive cost-effectiveness. With a relative vaccine effectiveness of 5.1% for infection and 9.8% for hospitalization for the Moderna vaccine versus the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine, use of the Moderna vaccine is expected to prevent 24,000 more hospitalizations and 3300 more deaths than the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine. LIMITATIONS AND CONCLUSIONS: As COVID-19 becomes endemic, future incidence, including patterns of infection, are highly uncertain. The effectiveness of fall 2023 vaccines is unknown, and it is unclear when a new variant that evades natural or vaccine immunity will emerge. Despite these limitations, our model predicts the Moderna Fall Campaign vaccine is highly cost-effective across all sensitivity analyses.

Costs of biomarker testing among patients with metastatic lung or thyroid cancer in the USA: a real-world commercial claims database study.

OBJECTIVE: This real-world retrospective database study quantified the costs of biomarker testing in a US population of patients with lung or thyroid cancers. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The commercial claims IBM Marketscan database, a de-identified real-world dataset, was used to identify patients diagnosed with lung or thyroid cancer between 1/2015 and 12/2019. Eligible patients were 18 years or older with two or more lung or thyroid diagnosis codes. Patients were excluded who had evidence of prior cancer diagnoses. Subgroup analyses evaluated eligible patients with metastatic disease. Descriptive statistics were used to evaluate commercial insurance plan payer and patient out-of-pocket costs for diagnostic testing overall as well as by test procedure code and payer type. Costs were adjusted to 2020 US dollars. RESULTS: A total of 23,633 patients with lung cancer were eligible, 13,320 of whom had metastatic disease. There were 36,867 patients with thyroid cancer, 2,241 of whom had metastatic disease. Biomarker codes were observed among 68.4/75.8% (lung/metastatic lung) and 18.2/42.3% (thyroid/metastatic thyroid). Few patients had codes for comprehensive biomarker tests (5.2/6.7% lung/metastatic lung, 0.3/2.2% thyroid/metastatic thyroid) Among those with biomarker tests, the median per-patient total payer lifetime costs of all biomarker testing were $394/$462 (lung/metastatic lung) and $148/$232 (thyroid/metastatic thyroid). Total lifetime biomarker costs for payers ranged from a median of $128 (consumer-driven health plans) to $477 (preferred provider organizations). Median lifetime patient out-of-pocket costs were $0.00 for both tumor types and all payer types except for consumer-driven health plans ($12 for thyroid and $10 for metastatic lung). CONCLUSIONS: While comprehensive testing adds to the cost of biomarker testing, these data suggest the relatively low lifetime cost of biomarker testing for both payers and patients. Costs for biomarker testing should not be a limitation to access among these populations with commercial insurance plans in the US.

This real-world retrospective database study found that there is a relatively low lifetime total cost of biomarker testing for the care of patients with lung or thyroid cancers. While comprehensive testing adds to the cost of biomarker testing, these data suggest the relatively low lifetime cost of biomarker testing for both payers and patients. Payer costs for biomarker testing do not appear to be limitation to access among populations with commercial insurance plans in this study.

The potential clinical impact of implementing different COVID-19 boosters in fall 2022 in the United States.

OBJECTIVE: Emerging SARS-COV-2 variants are spurring the development of adapted vaccines as public health authorities plan for fall vaccinations. This study estimated the number of infections and hospitalizations prevented by three potential booster strategies for adults (≥18 years) in the United States: boosting with either Moderna's (1) licensed first generation monovalent vaccine mRNA-1273 (ancestral strain) or (2) candidate bivalent vaccine mRNA-1273.214 (ancestral + BA.1 variant of concern [VOC]) starting in September 2022, or (3) Moderna's updated candidate bivalent vaccine mRNA-1273.222 (ancestral + BA.4/5 VOC) starting November 2022 due to longer development time. METHODS: An age-stratified, transmission dynamic, Susceptible-Exposed-Infection-Recovered (SEIR) model, adapted from previous literature, was used to estimate infections over time; the model contains compartments defined by SEIR and vaccination status. A decision tree was used to estimate clinical consequences of infections. Calibration was performed so the model tracks the actual course of the pandemic to present time. RESULTS: Vaccinating with mRNA-1273(Sept), mRNA-1273.214(Sept), and mRNA-1273.222(Nov) is predicted to reduce infections by 34%, 40%, and 18%, respectively, and hospitalizations by 42%, 48%, and 25%, respectively, over 6 months compared to no booster. Sensitivity analyses around transmissibility, vaccine coverage, masking, and waning illustrate that boosting with mRNA-1273.214 in September prevented more cases of infection and hospitalization than the other vaccines. LIMITATIONS AND CONCLUSIONS: With the emergence of new variants, key characteristics of the virus that affect estimates of spread and clinical impact also evolve, making parameter estimation difficult. Our analysis demonstrated that boosting with mRNA-1273.214 was more effective over 6 months in preventing infections and hospitalizations with a BA.4/5 subvariant than the tailored vaccine, simply because it could be deployed 2 months earlier. We conclude that there is no advantage to delay boosting until a more effective BA.4/5 vaccine is available; earlier boosting with mRNA-1273.214 will prevent the most infections and hospitalizations.

Excess healthcare costs in patients with autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease by renal dysfunction stage.

AIM: To build upon previous outdated studies by comprehensively assessing the direct healthcare burden of autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease (ADPKD). MATERIALS AND METHODS: Patients with ≥2 diagnoses for ADPKD (ADPKD cohort) were identified in the US fee-for-use IBM Truven Health Analytics MarketScan Commercial Claims and Encounters and IBM Truven Health Analytics MarketScan Medicare Supplemental databases (01 January 2015-31 December 2017) and matched (1:3) to controls without ADPKD (non-ADPKD cohort). The index date was the last calendar date followed by 12 months continuous enrollment (study period). Patients with ADPKD were stratified into one of seven mutually exclusive groups based on chronic kidney disease (CKD) stages (I-V), end-stage renal disease requiring renal replacement therapy (ESRD-RRT), and unknown stage. RESULTS: During the 12-month study period, patients with ADPKD incurred significantly higher total healthcare costs than those without ADPKD (mean cost difference = $22,879 per patient per year [PPPY]; p < .001). Besides CKD stages I and II, total healthcare cost differences increased as patients progressed beyond CKD stage III, with the greatest difference observed among patients with ESRD-RRT. Total healthcare cost differences between cohorts were more pronounced in subgroups of patients with hypertension ($29,347) and with high risk of rapid progression ($39,976). Similar results were observed in the Medicare Supplemental population, with a total mean cost difference of $42,694 PPPY (p < .001); cost difference was also higher in the hypertension ($46,461 PPPY) and high risk of rapid progression ($45,708 PPPY) subgroups. LIMITATIONS: Results may not be representative of the overall ADPKD US population; CKD stage was based on diagnosis and procedure codes; criteria used to identify ADPKD at risk of rapid progression did not rely on laboratory values; there may be billing inaccuracies and omissions in health insurance claims data. CONCLUSIONS: This study demonstrated the substantial healthcare costs associated with ADPKD, which increased as patients progressed through more severe CKD stages.

Economic burden for retinoblastoma patients in China.

BACKGROUND: Although retinoblastoma (Rb) is considered to have a good prognosis, economical stress is still a huge problem for patients' families. Besides, doctors, the government, and social foundation staff do not precisely know how much is truly required for complete Rb therapy, especially the non-medical costs and indirect costs. This study was conducted to estimate the economic burden of Rb patients. METHODS: This was a retrospective study. Fifty Rb patients were finally enrolled in the study. The questionnaire survey was conducted with surviving Rb patient' main family caregivers to collect the information on costs during illness through the phone. Costs included direct and indirect cost; direct costs included medical and non-medical costs. Medical costs include drug costs, surgery costs, treatment fees, lab tests, non-lab tests costs, and medical consumptive stuff costs (including hospital expenses and outpatient fees). RESULTS: The total direct cost was $27,814.62 ± 15,137.73, and the average medical cost was $15,034.48 ± 8,224.19 ($3,963.99-36,826.53). The total non-medical expenses averaged $12,252.93 ± 9,872.64 ($728.86-48,104.95). The average reduced working time was 11.50 ± 8.06 months, and the average lost income was $13,512.23 ± 11,545.83. Among the non-medical expenses, the average non-medical expenses for children in Beijing and surrounding areas was $6,557.68 ± 6,385.42, and the average non-medical expenses for children in other provinces and was $14,502.29 ± 10,484.86, t-test p-value = 0.011. The average transportation cost for children in Beijing and surrounding areas (Hebei, Tianjin) was $1,871.09 ± 1,428.91, other provinces was $4,909.62 ± 3,697.02. Of children in Beijing and surrounding areas the average accommodation fee was $2,788.42 ± 3,065.00, in other provinces it was $6,599.27 ± 3,065.00. CONCLUSION: Children with Rb have a heavy economic burden. Direct non-medical expenses are higher. Getting medical treatment nearby can help reduce the economic burden of the disease. Besides, work-related issues are also a major financial problem for families with Rb, and the government should properly provide economic subsidies. Simplifying the national health insurance process and purchasing commercial supplementary medical insurance will increase the family's ability to afford the cost of cancer treatment.