Barriers and facilitators to implementing evidence-based integrated HIV and behavioral health care: perspectives from seven federal ending the HIV epidemic jurisdictions.

The federal Ending the HIV Epidemic (EHE) initiative was created to reduce new US HIV infections, largely through pre-exposure prophylaxis and HIV treatments that reduce HIV transmissibility to zero. Behavioral health disorders (mental health and substance use) remain significant barriers to achieving EHE goals. Addressing behavioral health (BH) disorders within HIV primary care settings has been promoted as a critical EHE strategy. Implementation of efficacious HIV-BH care integration and its impact on HIV-related health outcomes is not well documented. In a federally-funded, exploratory phase implementation science study, we used the Collective Impact Framework to engage partners in seven EHE jurisdictions about the feasibility, acceptability, and sustainability of implementing HIV-BH integration interventions within local HIV settings. Partners concluded that full integration will remain the exception unless health systems invest in collaborative practice, professional training, appropriate health technology, and inter-system communication. Partners supported smaller incremental improvements including transdiagnostic approaches to reinforce each team member's sense of value in the shared endeavor. This early phase implementation science study identified research and implementation gaps that are critical to fill to end the HIV epidemic. Both the Collective Impact Framework and implementation science show promise for guiding future implementation of evidence-based HIV-BH intervention integration.

Principles for Ending Human Immunodeficiency Virus as an Epidemic in the United States: A Policy Paper of the Infectious Diseases Society of America and the HIV Medical Association.

While we have the tools to achieve this goal, the persistent barriers to healthcare services experienced by too many individuals will need to be addressed to make significant progress and improve the health and quality of life of all people with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). The necessary structural changes require actions by federal, state, and local policymakers and range from ensuring universal access to healthcare services to optimizing care delivery to ensuring a robust and diverse infectious diseases and HIV workforce. In this article, we outlines 10 key principles for policy reforms that, if advanced, would make ending the HIV epidemic in the United States possible and could have much more far-reaching effects in improving the health of our nation.

The Testing Imperative: Why the US Ending the Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) Epidemic Program Needs to Renew Efforts to Expand HIV Testing in Clinical and Community-Based Settings.

Data from several modeling studies demonstrate that large-scale increases in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) testing across settings with a high burden of HIV may produce the largest incidence reductions to support the US Ending the HIV Epidemic (EHE) initiative's goal of reducing new HIV infections 90% by 2030. Despite US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's recommendations for routine HIV screening within clinical settings and at least yearly screening for individuals most at risk of acquiring HIV, fewer than half of US adults report ever receiving an HIV test. Furthermore, total domestic funding for HIV prevention has remained unchanged between 2013 and 2019. The authors describe the evidence supporting the value of expanded HIV testing, identify challenges in implementation, and present recommendations to address these barriers through approaches at local and federal levels to reach EHE targets.

Advancing Dialogue About Consent and Molecular HIV Surveillance in the United States: Four Proposals Following a Federal Advisory Panel's Call for Major Reforms.

Policy Points Molecular HIV surveillance and cluster detection and response (MHS/CDR) programs have been a core public health activity in the United States since 2018 and are the "fourth pillar" of the Ending the HIV Epidemic initiative launched in 2019. MHS/CDR has caused controversy, including calls for a moratorium from networks of people living with HIV. In October 2022, the Presidential Advisory Council on HIV/AIDS (PACHA) adopted a resolution calling for major reforms. We analyze the policy landscape and present four proposals to federal stakeholders pertaining to PACHA's recommendations about incorporating opt-outs and plain-language notifications into MHS/CDR programs.

Improvements in Virologic Control Among PWH Over Time: Narrowing the Gap Between Those With and Without STIs.

Using the incidence of bacterial sexually transmitted infection (STI) as a surrogate for condomless sexual behavior, we assessed the association between STI and uncontrolled HIV replication among in-care persons with HIV (PWH) enrolled in a longitudinal HIV cohort study in the District of Columbia (the DC Cohort). Although STI occurrence initially correlated with higher HIV viral load (VL), this difference became more attenuated over time (2012-2016). This was true overall and among those with the greatest number of STIs [age 18-34, men who have sex with men (MSM)]. This likely reflects gains in population-wide virologic control through improved antiretroviral therapy and access to care, which helps mitigate the risk of HIV transmission.

Characteristics of California Emergency Departments in Centers for Disease Control and Prevention-Designated HIV Priority Counties.

BACKGROUND: Refocused national HIV testing initiatives include a geographic focus. OBJECTIVE: Using a geographic focus, we sought to identify which emergency departments (EDs) might be the most efficient targets for future HIV testing efforts, using California as an example. METHODS: Retrospective analysis of California EDs, emergency physicians, and patients served, along with county-level estimates of HIV prevalence and proportion of the population living in poverty. Emphasis was placed on characterizing EDs affiliated with teaching hospitals and those located in Centers for Disease Control (CDC) and Prevention HIV priority counties. RESULTS: Of the 320 EDs studied, 178 were in priority counties, 29 were affiliated with teaching hospitals, and 24 had both characteristics. Of the 12,869,889 ED visits included, 61.8% occurred in priority counties, 14.7% in EDs affiliated with teaching hospitals, and 12.0% in EDs with both characteristics. The subset of EDs in priority counties with teaching hospital affiliations (compared with priority and nonpriority county ED groups without a teaching hospital affiliation) had higher overall median visit volumes and higher proportions of visits by at-risk and CDC-targeted populations (e.g., individuals who were homeless, those who identified as Black or African American race, and those who identified as Hispanic or Latino ethnicity, all p < 0.01). CONCLUSIONS: EDs in priority counties affiliated with teaching hospitals are major sources of health care in California. These EDs more often serve populations disproportionately impacted by HIV. These departments are efficient targets to direct testing efforts. Increasing testing in these EDs could reduce the burden of undiagnosed HIV in California.

No increased HIV risk in general population near sex work sites: A nationally representative cross-sectional study in Zimbabwe.

OBJECTIVES: Sex work sites have been hypothesised to be at the root of the observed heterogeneity in HIV prevalence in sub-Saharan Africa. We determined if proximity to sex work sites is associated with HIV prevalence among the general population in Zimbabwe, a country with one of the highest HIV prevalence in the world. METHODS: In this cross-sectional study we use a unique combination of nationally representative geolocated individual-level data from 16,121 adults (age 15-49 years) from 400 sample locations and the locations of 55 sex work sites throughout Zimbabwe; covering an estimated 95% of all female sex workers (FSWs). We calculated the shortest distance by road from each survey sample location to the nearest sex work site, for all sites and by type of sex work site, and conducted univariate and multivariate multilevel logistic regressions to determine the association between distance to sex work sites and HIV seropositivity, controlling for age, sex, male circumcision status, number of lifetime sex partners, being a FSW client or being a stable partner of an FSW client. RESULTS: We found no significant association between HIV seroprevalence and proximity to the nearest sex work site among the general population in Zimbabwe, regardless of which type of site is closest (city site adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 1.010 [95% confidence interval {CI} 0.992-1.028]; economic growth point site aOR 0.982 [95% CI 0.962-1.002]; international site aOR 0.995 [95% CI 0.979-1.012]; seasonal site aOR 0.987 [95% CI 0.968-1.006] and transport site aOR 1.007 [95% CI 0.987-1.028]). Individual-level indicators of sex work were significantly associated with HIV seropositivity: being an FSW client (aOR 1.445 [95% CI 1.188-1.745]); nine or more partners versus having one to three lifetime partners (aOR 2.072 [95% CI 1.654-2.596]). CONCLUSIONS: Sex work sites do not seem to directly affect HIV prevalence among the general population in surrounding areas. Prevention and control interventions for HIV at these locations should primarily focus on sex workers and their clients, with special emphasis on including and retaining mobile sex workers and clients into services.

Evaluating the sensitivity of jurisdictional heterogeneity and jurisdictional mixing in national level HIV prevention analyses: context of the U.S. ending the HIV epidemic plan.

BACKGROUND: The U.S. Ending the HIV epidemic (EHE) plan aims to reduce annual HIV incidence by 90% by 2030, by first focusing interventions on 57 regions (EHE jurisdictions) that contributed to more than 50% of annual HIV diagnoses. Mathematical models that project HIV incidence evaluate the impact of interventions and inform intervention decisions. However, current models are either national level, which do not consider jurisdictional heterogeneity, or independent jurisdiction-specific, which do not consider cross jurisdictional interactions. Data suggests that a significant proportion of persons have sexual partnerships outside their own jurisdiction. However, the sensitivity of these jurisdictional interactions on model outcomes and intervention decisions hasn't been studied. METHODS: We developed an ordinary differential equations based compartmental model to generate national-level projections of HIV in the U.S., through dynamic simulations of 96 epidemiological sub-models representing 54 EHE and 42 non-EHE jurisdictions. A Bernoulli equation modeled HIV-transmissions using a mixing matrix to simulate sexual partnerships within and outside jurisdictions. To evaluate sensitivity of jurisdictional interactions on model outputs, we analyzed 16 scenarios, combinations of a) proportion of sexual partnerships mixing outside jurisdiction: no-mixing, low-level-mixing-within-state, high-level-mixing-within-state, or high-level-mixing-within-and-outside-state; b) jurisdictional heterogeneity in care and demographics: homogenous or heterogeneous; and c) intervention assumptions for 2019-2030: baseline or EHE-plan (diagnose, treat, and prevent). RESULTS: Change in incidence in mixing compared to no-mixing scenarios varied by EHE and non-EHE jurisdictions and aggregation-level. When assuming jurisdictional heterogeneity and baseline-intervention, the change in aggregated incidence ranged from - 2 to 0% for EHE and 5 to 21% for non-EHE, but within each jurisdiction it ranged from - 31 to 46% for EHE and - 18 to 109% for non-EHE. Thus, incidence estimates were sensitive to jurisdictional mixing more at the jurisdictional level. As a result, jurisdiction-specific HIV-testing intervals inferred from the model to achieve the EHE-plan were also sensitive, e.g., when no-mixing scenarios suggested testing every 1 year (or 3 years), the three mixing-levels suggested testing every 0.8 to 1.2 years, 0.6 to 1.5 years, and 0.6 to 1.5 years, respectively (or 2.6 to 3.5 years, 2 to 4.8 years, and 2.2 to 4.1 years, respectively). Similar patterns were observed when assuming jurisdictional homogeneity, however, change in incidence in mixing compared to no-mixing scenarios were high even in aggregated incidence. CONCLUSIONS: Accounting jurisdictional mixing and heterogeneity could improve model-based analyses.

HIV epidemic in Mizoram, India: A rapid review to inform future responses.

Background & objectives: Mizoram, a northeastern State of India bordering Myanmar, is home to several tribal clans under the ethnic group Mizo: Renthelei, Ralte, Paite, Lai, Hmar, Lusei, Mara, Thado and Kuki. Mizos also reside in the neighbouring northeastern States of Tripura, Assam, Manipur and Nagaland. The majority of Mizo people outside India live across the border in the neighbouring Chin State and Sagaing Region of Myanmar. Over the last decade, Mizoram witnessed a concerning level of rise in HIV prevalence among the general population. The present rapid review was conducted to identify various interventions that could help curb this rising trend. Methods: An electronic search strategy with broad domains of 'HIV/AIDS', 'key population', 'community engagement' and 'interventions in Mizoram' using PubMed, Embase and Cochrane was adopted; grey literature were also accessed. Evidence, thus gleaned, were synthesized. Results: Twenty eight resource materials comprising articles, reports and dissertations contributed to the current review. Changing tribal social support structure, early initiation of drugs, sexual debut at an early age and drug-sex interface were identified as factors associated with the progression of HIV epidemic in the State. Issues pertaining to the migration of people across the borders and easy access to drugs continue to be of concern. Churches and youth leaders have a strong influence on the society, at times even constraining access of key population groups to HIV prevention and care services. Tackling stigma and discrimination, ensuring uninterrupted HIV services and creation of an enabling environment in this context seems urgently needed. Incarcerated people in the State have been found with a high level of HIV infection and their linkages with prevention and care services need strengthening. Interpretation & conclusions: This review underscores the importance of drawing upon successful intervention examples from the past such as 'Friends on Friday' and Red Ribbon Clubs. Active engagement of community-based organizations in programme planning, implementation and monitoring is essential. Establishment of harm reduction interventions for general and key populations paired with strategic communication appear to be the need of the hour.

Snap out stigma photovoice project in the U.S. South.

BACKGROUND: The purpose of SNAP Out Stigma (SOS) was to design and implement a community-based intervention to reduce HIV-related stigma for people living with HIV (PLWH) in the Deep South. This region is a subset of 9 states including Memphis, Tennessee (project site) driving the epidemic in the United States. The purpose of this paper is to explain how PLWH in the U.S. South used Photovoice to communicate stigmatizing lived experiences and contextualize their intersection with multi-level sources of support. METHODS: PLWH attended one-on-one and/or group sessions with other PLWH. In Session 1, PLWH received a project overview, met other participants, received a camera and camera training, completed a standardized internalized stigma scale, discussed experiences of internalized stigma, and were instructed to take 3-10 pictures that captured stigma. In Session 2, PLWH discussed the pictures and their meaning. In Session 3, PLWH expanded on what they shared in previous sessions in a one-on-one interview. Thematic analysis captured key patterns of how PLWH experienced stigma. RESULTS: Forty-seven PLWH attended Session 1 and were issued a camera. Of those, 35 completed sessions 2 and 3. Participants self-identified as cis man who has sex with men (n = 18), ciswoman (n = 5), transwoman (n = 10), and non-binary (n = 2). Four emergent themes intersecting with internalizations of stigma were identified including: medical, social support, church, and self. CONCLUSIONS: The SOS intervention created a safe space for PLWH to share lived experiences of stigmatization. Photovoice facilitated discussion topics ranging from healing and recovery to overcoming factors of social determinants of HIV. We identified trauma-informed growth as an area of future programs for PLWH.

A Spatial Approach for Ending the Human Immunodeficiency Virus Epidemic for the United States-A DC Model.

BACKGROUND: Mode of transmission-based hotspots is a smart approach to HIV mitigation, yet remains poorly evaluated and implemented in the United States. The primary aim was to identifying mode of transmission-based hotspots and populations at risk of lower viral suppression to assist in targeted planning and implementation of programs. METHODS: We implemented spatial statistics to identify global-local hotspots and regression analysis to find populations at risk of lower viral suppression within hotspots. Data were obtained from the District of Columbia's (DC's) active surveillance system, which were geocoded based on current residence address. RESULTS: The analysis identified 6001 HIV-positive men who have sex with men (MSM) and 6077 HIV-positive non-MSM (N = 12 078) living in DC at the end of 2018. The hotspots for MSM were central DC and non-MSM in south DC. Trends of viral suppression within MSM hotspots showed plateauing and, among non-MSM, showed decline. Regression analysis showed MSM aged 21-25 (RR: 3.199; 95% CI: 1.832-5.586) and not linked to care (8.592; 2.907-25.398) were at higher risk of being virally unsuppressed within the hotspots. For non-MSM we found those aged 12-18 (9.025; 3.314-2.581) and with unknown linkages (6.087; 3.346-13.848) were at higher risk of being virally unsuppressed within the hotspots. CONCLUSIONS: Our analysis provides a model that may be used by other jurisdictions to identify areas of priority and plan treatment-adherence programs using surveillance data. Attaining viral suppression is crucial in reducing new diagnoses; a spatial approach can be an important tool in Ending the HIV Epidemic.

"I Feel Almost as Though I've Lived This Before": Insights from Sexual and Gender Minority Men on Coping with COVID-19.

As communities struggle with how to cope with the health and social consequences of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), sexual and gender minority men living with or affected by the HIV/AIDS epidemic have important insights into how to cope with uncertainty, public health protocols, and grief. We recruited sexual and gender minority men using online networking apps from April 18-24, 2020 to enroll a longitudinal cohort. We analyzed baseline qualitative data from open-ended responses using content analysis to examine how the HIV/AIDS epidemic has helped sexual minority men with the current COVID-19 pandemic. Of the 437 participants who completed the survey, 155 (35%) indicated that HIV/AIDS had helped them cope with COVID-19. Free-response data from those 135 of those participants clustered around four themes: (1) experience having lived through a pandemic, (2) experience coping with stigma, (3) familiarity with public health protocols, and (4) belief in collective action. Based on the experiences of these men, public health approaches centered on resilience and collective action could be particularly helpful in responding and coping with COVID-19-especially if the pandemic persists over longer periods of time.

A Systematic Review of the Social Network Strategy to Optimize HIV Testing in Key Populations to End the Epidemic in the United States.

The United States (U.S.) has a plan to end the HIV epidemic by 2030. The plan's first pillar prioritizes HIV testing. Social Network Strategy (SNS) is an intervention to reach persons not routinely testing for HIV. We conducted a systematic review of SNS to understand its implementation to optimize HIV testing in the U.S. among key populations. The eligibility criteria included peer-reviewed papers based in the U.S. and focused on HIV testing. We identified and thematically analyzed 14 articles to explore factors associated with successful implementation. Key themes included: (1) social network and recruiter characteristics; (2) strategies for and effectiveness of recruiting key populations; (3) use of and types of incentives; (4) trust, confidentiality, and stigma concerns; and (5) implementation plans and real-world guidance. Cohort studies indicated that SNS detects more incident HIV cases. Partnerships with health departments are critical to confirm new diagnoses, as are developing plans that support recruiters and staff. SNS is a promising strategy to optimize HIV testing among key populations.

Analysis of exact solution of stochastic sex-structured HIV/AIDS epidemic model with effect of screening of infectives.

The world of uncertainty motivates the study of stochastic perturbation in the mathematical models of real life. The main objective of this paper is to study stochastic sex-structured HIV/AIDS epidemic model with effect of screening of infectives. We have shown that the proposed stochastic epidemic model with boundedness and permanence has a unique global positive solution. The selection of suitable Lyapunov functions provides sufficient conditions for investigating persistence and extinction of disease. Based on numerical experiments, the theoretical findings of this paper have been verified.

Estimates of the Time From Seroconversion to Antiretroviral Therapy Initiation Among People Newly Diagnosed With Human Immunodeficiency Virus From 2006 to 2015, New York City.

BACKGROUND: We estimated the time from human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) seroconversion to antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation during an era of expanding HIV testing and treatment efforts. METHODS: Applying CD4 depletion parameters from seroconverter cohort data to our population-based sample, we related the square root of the first pretreatment CD4 count to time of seroconversion through a linear mixed model and estimated the time from seroconversion. RESULTS: Among 28 162 people diagnosed with HIV during 2006-2015, 89% initiated ART by June 2017. The median CD4 count at diagnosis increased from 326 (interquartile range [IQR], 132-504) cells/µL to 390 (IQR, 216-571) cells/µL from 2006 to 2015. The median time from estimated seroconversion to ART initiation decreased by 42% from 6.4 (IQR, 3.3-11.4) years in 2006 to 3.7 (IQR, 0.5-8.3) years in 2015. The time from estimated seroconversion to diagnosis decreased by 28%, from a median of 4.6 (IQR, 0.5-10.5) years to 3.3 (IQR, 0-8.1) years from 2006 to 2015, and the time from diagnosis to ART initiation reduced by 60%, from a median of 0.5 (IQR, 0.2-2.1) years to 0.2 (IQR, 0.1-0.3) years from 2006 to 2015. CONCLUSIONS: The estimated time from seroconversion to ART initiation was reduced in tandem with expanded HIV testing and treatment efforts. While the time from diagnosis to ART initiation decreased to 0.2 years, the time from seroconversion to diagnosis was 3.3 years among people diagnosed in 2015, highlighting the need for more effective strategies for earlier HIV diagnosis.

The Impact of Treatment as Prevention on the HIV Epidemic in British Columbia, Canada.

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: This study proposes to describe the impact of a publicly funded Treatment as Prevention (TasP) strategy in British Columbia (BC), Canada, in decreasing the individual and public health impact of the HIV/AIDS Epidemic. RECENT FINDINGS: In BC, TasP has been associated with a steady decline in HIV-related morbidity and mortality. At the same time, a demographic transition was observed among people living with HIV (PLWH), with the majority of those on antiretroviral treatment (ART) now ≥ 50 years of age, living with at least one comorbidity, and dying from age-associated comorbidities. We also documented a progressive increase in the proportion of viral load suppression as a result of ART expansion. While the pre-ART CD4 T cell count has increased steadily in recent years, there is still a large proportion of PLWH being diagnosed in later stages of HIV infection. New HIV diagnoses have been rapidly declining, however to a lesser extent among men who have sex with men (MSM), and BC is currently experiencing an increase in infectious syphilis cases in this population. These facts reinforce the effectiveness of TasP in decreasing HIV transmission, but at the same time, it highlights the need for further innovation to enhance the control of HIV and syphilis among MSM. This study supports the development of new approaches that address existing gaps in the TasP strategy in BC, and the future health needs of PLWH.

Ending the Epidemic in America Will Not Happen if the Status Quo Continues: Modeled Projections for Human Immunodeficiency Virus Incidence in 6 US Cities.

We estimated 10-year (2020-2030) trajectories for human immunodeficiency virus incidence in 6 US cities. Estimated incidence will only decrease in 2 of 6 cities, with the overall population-weighted incidence decreasing 3.1% (95% credible interval [CrI], -1.0% to 8.5%) by 2025, and 4.3% (95% CrI, -2.6% to 12.7%) by 2030 across cities. Targeted, context-specific combination implementation strategies will be necessary to meet the newly established national targets.

HIV-1 molecular transmission clusters in nine European countries and Canada: association with demographic and clinical factors.

BACKGROUND: Knowledge of HIV-1 molecular transmission clusters (MTCs) is important, especially in large-scale datasets, for designing prevention programmes and public health intervention strategies. We used a large-scale HIV-1 sequence dataset from nine European HIV cohorts and one Canadian, to identify MTCs and investigate factors associated with the probability of belonging to MTCs. METHODS: To identify MTCs, we applied maximum likelihood inferences on partial pol sequences from 8955 HIV-positive individuals linked to demographic and clinical data. MTCs were defined using two different criteria: clusters with bootstrap support >75% (phylogenetic confidence criterion) and clusters consisting of sequences from a specific region at a proportion of >75% (geographic criterion) compared to the total number of sequences within the network. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was used to assess factors associated with MTC clustering. RESULTS: Although 3700 (41%) sequences belonged to MTCs, proportions differed substantially by country and subtype, ranging from 7% among UK subtype C sequences to 63% among German subtype B sequences. The probability of belonging to an MTC was independently less likely for women than men (OR = 0.66; P < 0.001), older individuals (OR = 0.79 per 10-year increase in age; P < 0.001) and people of non-white ethnicity (OR = 0.44; P < 0.001 and OR = 0.70; P = 0.002 for black and 'other' versus white, respectively). It was also more likely among men who have sex with men (MSM) than other risk groups (OR = 0.62; P < 0.001 and OR = 0.69; P = 0.002 for people who inject drugs, and sex between men and women, respectively), subtype B (ORs 0.36-0.70 for A, C, CRF01 and CRF02 versus B; all P < 0.05), having a well-estimated date of seroconversion (OR = 1.44; P < 0.001), a later calendar year of sampling (ORs 2.01-2.61 for all post-2002 periods versus pre-2002; all P < 0.01), and being naïve to antiretroviral therapy at sampling (OR = 1.19; P = 0.010). CONCLUSIONS: A high proportion (>40%) of individuals belonged to MTCs. Notably, the HIV epidemic dispersal appears to be driven by subtype B viruses spread within MSM networks. Expansion of regional epidemics seems mainly associated with recent MTCs, rather than the growth of older, established ones. This information is important for designing prevention and public health intervention strategies.

Planning and sustaining HIV response in the countries of the "risky middle".

This paper focusses on high-HIV middle-income countries termed the "risky middle", i.e. characterised by a typology based on HIV burden and gross national income (GNI), according to which seven countries - Lesotho, Eswatini, Kenya, Zimbabwe, Tanzania, Namibia and Zambia - are identified. There is particular concern for "people left behind", the factors determining a country's ability to mobilise resources in the context of multiple development needs - including economic disparities; the political economy of fiscal decision-making; levels of health investment; health and community systems; political will; and currency fluctuations. While donors will support lower-income countries and higher-income countries can compensate from domestic resources, there is a risk that some high-burden, lower middle-income countries will be unable to sustain a response. Continued growth means that there are countries transitioning to higher World Bank income classification - an important criterion for allocating development assistance for health. Our concern is that countries may face external funding reduction once their income category improves, and those in the risky middle will be unable to compensate from domestic resources. We conclude, with guidance from UNAIDS, the international community should step up support for "risky middle" countries. In addition these countries need to recognise the threat and develop measures to counter it, including improved accountability. Funding declines should be reversed through funding benchmarks that relate to both GDP and HIV prevalence. Finally, risky middle countries could constitute themselves as a special interest group, to protect their HIV funding and AIDS response.

Quantifying the drivers of HIV transmission and prevention in men who have sex with men: a population model-based analysis in Switzerland.

OBJECTIVES: Despite the huge success of antiretroviral therapy (ART), there is an ongoing HIV epidemic among men who have sex with men (MSM) in resource-rich countries. Understanding the driving factors underlying this process is important for curbing the epidemic. METHODS: We simulated the HIV epidemic in MSM in Switzerland by stratifying a mathematical model by CD4 count, the care cascade and condom use. The model was parametrised with clinical, epidemiological and behavioural data from the Swiss HIV Cohort Study and surveys in the HIV-negative population. RESULTS: According to our model, 3.4% of the cases that would otherwise have occurred in 2008-2015 were prevented by early initiation of ART. Only 0.6% of the cases were attributable to a change in condom use in the HIV-positive population, as less usage is mainly seen in virally suppressed MSM. Most new infections were attributable to transmission from recently infected undiagnosed individuals. It was estimated that doubling the diagnosis rate would have resulted in 11.8% fewer cases in 2001-2015. Moreover, it was estimated that introducing pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) for 50% of those MSM not using condoms with occasional partners would have resulted in 22.6% fewer cases in 2012-2015. CONCLUSIONS: By combining observational data on the relevant epidemiological and clinical processes with a mathematical model, we showed that the 'test and treat' approach is most effective in reducing the number of new cases. Only a moderate population-level effect was estimated for early initiation of ART and a weak effect for the change in condom use of diagnosed MSM. Protecting HIV-negative individuals who are not using condoms with PrEP was shown to have a major impact.