A spatial agent-based model of Anopheles vagus for malaria epidemiology: examining the impact of vector control interventions.

BACKGROUND: Malaria, being a mosquito-borne infectious disease, is still one of the most devastating global health issues. The malaria vector Anopheles vagus is widely distributed in Asia and a dominant vector in Bandarban, Bangladesh. However, despite its wide distribution, no agent based model (ABM) of An. vagus has yet been developed. Additionally, its response to combined vector control interventions has not been examined. METHODS: A spatial ABM, denoted as ABM[Formula: see text], was designed and implemented based on the biological attributes of An. vagus by modifying an established, existing ABM of Anopheles gambiae. Environmental factors such as temperature and rainfall were incorporated into ABM[Formula: see text] using daily weather profiles. Real-life field data of Bandarban were used to generate landscapes which were used in the simulations. ABM[Formula: see text] was verified and validated using several standard techniques and against real-life field data. Using artificial landscapes, the individual and combined efficacies of existing vector control interventions are modeled, applied, and examined. RESULTS: Simulated female abundance curves generated by ABM[Formula: see text] closely follow the patterns observed in the field. Due to the use of daily temperature and rainfall data, ABM[Formula: see text] was able to generate seasonal patterns for a particular area. When two interventions were applied with parameters set to mid-ranges, ITNs/LLINs with IRS produced better results compared to the other cases. Moreover, any intervention combined with ITNs/LLINs yielded better results. Not surprisingly, three interventions applied in combination generate best results compared to any two interventions applied in combination. CONCLUSIONS: Output of ABM[Formula: see text] showed high sensitivity to real-life field data of the environmental factors and the landscape of a particular area. Hence, it is recommended to use the model for a given area in connection to its local field data. For applying combined interventions, three interventions altogether are highly recommended whenever possible. It is also suggested that ITNs/LLINs with IRS can be applied when three interventions are not available.

The Residual Efficacy of SumiShield™ 50WG and K-Othrine® WG250 IRS Formulations Applied to Different Building Materials against Anopheles and Aedes Mosquitoes.

Insecticides with novel modes of action are required to complement the pyrethroids currently relied upon for controlling malaria vectors. One example of this is the neonicotinoid clothianidin, the active ingredient in the indoor residual spray (IRS) SumiShield™ 50WG. In a preliminary experiment, the mortality of insecticide-susceptible and resistant An. gambiae adults exposed to filter papers treated with this IRS product reached 80% by 3 days post-exposure and 100% by 6 days post-exposure. Next, cement, wood, and mud tiles were treated with the clothianidin or a deltamethrin-based IRS formulation (K-Othrine WG250). Insecticide resistant and susceptible Anopheles and Aedes were exposed to these surfaces periodically for up to 18 months. Pyrethroid resistant Cx. quinquefasciatus was also exposed at 9 months. Between exposures, tiles were stored in heat and relative humidity conditions reflecting those found in the field. On these surfaces, the clothianidin IRS was effective at killing both susceptible and resistant An. gambiae for 18 months post-treatment, while mortality amongst the resistant strains when exposed to the deltamethrin IRS was not above that of the negative control. Greater efficacy of clothianidin was also demonstrated against insecticide resistant strains of An. funestus compared to deltamethrin, though the potency was lower when compared with An. gambiae. In general, higher efficacy of the clothianidin IRS was observed on cement and mud compared to wood, though it demonstrated poorer residual activity against Ae.aegypti and Cx. quinquefasciatus.

Malaria control under unstable dynamics: reactive vs. climate-based strategies.

In areas of the world where malaria prevails under unstable conditions, attacking the adult vector population through insecticide-based Indoor Residual Spraying (IRS) is the most common method for controlling epidemics. Defined in policy guidance, the use of Annual Parasitic Incidence (API) is an important tool for assessing the effectiveness of control and for planning new interventions. To investigate the consequences that a policy based on API in previous seasons might have on the population dynamics of the disease and on control itself in regions of low and seasonal transmission, we formulate a mathematical malaria model that couples epidemiologic and vector dynamics with IRS intervention. This model is parameterized for a low transmission and semi-arid region in northwest India, where epidemics are driven by high rainfall variability. We show that this type of feedback mechanism in control strategies can generate transient cycles in malaria even in the absence of environmental variability, and that this tendency to cycle can in turn limit the effectiveness of control in the presence of such variability. Specifically, for realistic rainfall conditions and over a range of control intensities, the effectiveness of such 'reactive' intervention is compared to that of an alternative strategy based on rainfall and therefore vector variability. Results show that the efficacy of intervention is strongly influenced by rainfall variability and the type of policy implemented. In particular, under an API 'reactive' policy, high vector populations can coincide more frequently with low control coverage, and in so doing generate large unexpected epidemics and decrease the likelihood of elimination. These results highlight the importance of incorporating information on climate variability, rather than previous incidence, in planning IRS interventions in regions of unstable malaria. These findings are discussed in the more general context of elimination and other low transmission regions such as highlands.