Interplay between viral shedding, age, and symptoms on individual infectiousness of influenza cases in households.

BACKGROUND: Understanding factors affecting the infectiousness of influenza cases is crucial for disease prevention and control. Viral shedding is expected to correlate with infectiousness of cases, but it is strongly associated with age and the presence of symptoms. METHODS: To elucidate this complex interplay, we analyze with an individual-based household transmission model a detailed household transmission study of influenza with 442 households and 1710 individuals from 2008 to 2017 in Hong Kong, to characterize the household transmission dynamics and identify factors affecting transmissions. RESULTS: We estimate that age, fever symptoms and viral load were all associated with higher infectiousness. However, by model comparison, the best model includes age and fever as factors affecting individual infectiousness, and estimates that pre-school and school-age children were 317% (95% credible interval (CrI): 103%, 1042%) and 161% (95% CrI: 33%, 601%) more infectious than adults respectively, and patients having fever had 146% (95% CrI: 37%, 420%) higher infectiousness. Adding heterogeneity on individual infectiousness of cases does not improve the model fit, suggesting these factors could explain the difference in individual infectiousness. CONCLUSIONS: Our study clarifies the contribution of age, symptoms and viral shedding to individual infectiousness of influenza cases in households.

Association Between SARS-CoV-2 Viral Load and COVID-19 Vaccination in 4 Phase 3 Trials.

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccines reduce severe disease and mortality and may lessen transmission, measured by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) viral load (VL). Evaluating vaccine associations in VL at COVID-19 diagnosis in 4 phase 3 randomized, placebo-controlled vaccine trials, July 2020 to July 2021, VL reductions were 2.78 log10 copies/mL (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.38-4.18; n = 60 placebo, 11 vaccine) and 2.12 log10 copies/mL (95% CI, 1.44-2.80; n = 594 placebo, 36 vaccine) for NVX-CoV2373 and mRNA-1273, respectively. Associations were not significant for AZD1222 (0.59 log10 copies/mL; 95% CI, -.19 to 1.36; n = 90 placebo, 78 vaccine) or Ad26.COV2.S (0.23 log10 copies/mL; 95% CI, -.01 to .47; n = 916 placebo, 424 vaccine). Thus, vaccines potentially decreased transmission when ancestral SARS-CoV-2 predominated. Clinical Trials Registration. NCT04470427, NCT04505722, NCT04516746, NCT04611802.

Vaccine Effectiveness against SARS-CoV-2 among Household Contacts during Omicron BA.2-Dominant Period, Japan.

We calculated attack rates for household contacts of COVID-19 patients during the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron BA.2-dominant period in Japan. Attack rates among household contacts without recent (<3 months) vaccination was lower for contacts of index patients with complete vaccination than for contacts of index patients without complete vaccination, demonstrating indirect vaccine effectiveness.

In vivo kinetics of SARS-CoV-2 infection and its relationship with a person's infectiousness.

The within-host viral kinetics of SARS-CoV-2 infection and how they relate to a person's infectiousness are not well understood. This limits our ability to quantify the impact of interventions on viral transmission. Here, we develop viral dynamic models of SARS-CoV-2 infection and fit them to data to estimate key within-host parameters such as the infected cell half-life and the within-host reproductive number. We then develop a model linking viral load (VL) to infectiousness and show a person's infectiousness increases sublinearly with VL and that the logarithm of the VL in the upper respiratory tract is a better surrogate of infectiousness than the VL itself. Using data on VL and the predicted infectiousness, we further incorporated data on antigen and RT-PCR tests and compared their usefulness in detecting infection and preventing transmission. We found that RT-PCR tests perform better than antigen tests assuming equal testing frequency; however, more frequent antigen testing may perform equally well with RT-PCR tests at a lower cost but with many more false-negative tests. Overall, our models provide a quantitative framework for inferring the impact of therapeutics and vaccines that lower VL on the infectiousness of individuals and for evaluating rapid testing strategies.

Exhaled Mycobacterium tuberculosis Predicts Incident Infection in Household Contacts.

BACKGROUND: Halting transmission of Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) by identifying infectious individuals early is key to eradicating tuberculosis (TB). Here we evaluate face mask sampling as a tool for stratifying the infection risk of individuals with pulmonary TB (PTB) to their household contacts. METHODS: Forty-six sputum-positive PTB patients in The Gambia (August 2016-November 2017) consented to mask sampling prior to commencing treatment. Incident Mtb infection was defined in 181 of their 217 household contacts as QuantiFERON conversion or an increase in interferon-γ of ≥1 IU/mL, 6 months after index diagnosis. Multilevel mixed-effects logistical regression analysis with cluster adjustment by household was used to identify predictors of incident infection. RESULTS: Mtb was detected in 91% of PTB mask samples with high variation in IS6110 copies (5.3 × 102 to 1.2 × 107). A high mask Mtb level (≥20 000 IS6110 copies) was observed in 45% of cases and was independently associated with increased likelihood of incident Mtb infection in contacts (adjusted odds ratio, 3.20 [95% confidence interval, 1.26-8.12]; P = .01), compared with cases having low-positive/negative mask Mtb levels. Mask Mtb level was a better predictor of incident Mtb infection than sputum bacillary load, chest radiographic characteristics, or sleeping proximity. CONCLUSIONS: Mask sampling offers a sensitive and noninvasive tool to support the stratification of individuals who are most infectious in high-TB-burden settings. Our approach can provide better insight into community transmission in complex environments.

Epidemic dynamics with time-varying transmission risk reveal the role of disease stage-dependent infectiousness.

A key characteristic of acute communicable diseases is the infectiousness that varies over time as the infection dynamics evolve within a host, which influences the risk of transmission in different stages of the disease. Despite the evidence of time-varying transmission risk, most dynamic models of epidemics assume a constant transmission rate during the infectious period. Recent work has shown the difference in epidemic dynamics when this assumption is relaxed and different transmission rates are used by discretizing the infectious period into multiple sub-periods. Here, we develop an age-structured model to integrate a continuous time-varying transmission risk, based on an established correlation between the viral dynamics and infectiousness profile. Taking into account the natural history and parameter estimates of COVID-19 caused by the original strain of SARS-CoV-2, we demonstrate the difference in temporal epidemic dynamics when a continuous time-varying transmission probability is used as compared to multiple constant transmission probabilities. Our results show a significant difference between the incidence curves in terms of the magnitude and peak time, even when the reproduction number and total number of infections are the same for continuous and discrete transmission probabilities. Finally, we demonstrate the spurious outcome of preventing an epidemic through the isolation of infectious individuals when constant transmission probabilities are used, highlighting the importance of integrating a continuous time-dependent transmission parameter in dynamic models. These findings suggest a more cautious interpretation of model outcomes, especially those that are intended to evaluate the effectiveness of interventions and inform policy decisions for disease mitigation strategies.

Diagnostic performance of rapid antigen tests for SARS-CoV-2 transmission risk based on cycle threshold values in the emergency department.

BACKGROUND: This study aimed to investigate the diagnostic performance of the rapid antigen test (RAT) for screening patients with cycle threshold (Ct) values of SARS-CoV-2 reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) in the emergency department. Previous studies have shown that Ct values could be used as indicators of infectiousness. Therefore, we considered the Ct value an indicator of potential infectiousness. METHODS: This single-center retrospective observational study was conducted between January 1, 2020, and March 31, 2022. Patients who underwent both RT-PCR and RAT for the diagnosis of COVID-19 were included. Patients with negative RT-PCR results were excluded. Patients with Ct values lower than 26 and 30 were considered potentially infectious for COVID-19. RESULT: A total of 386 patients were analyzed. At Ct value cutoffs of 26 and 30, the result of the RAT showed a sensitivity of 82% and 74%, specificity of 84% and 89%, and area under the curve (AUC) of 0.829 and 0.813, respectively, in the receiver operating characteristic curve. However, the NPV was relatively low at 55% and 25%. CONCLUSION: The RAT might be a rapid screening tool for detecting patients with the infectiousness of SARS-CoV-2. However, considering the low NPV, it is challenging to depend only on a negative test result from an antigen test to terminate quarantine. Clinicians should consider additional factors, such as the duration of symptoms and the immunocompromised state, for SARS-CoV-2 transmission.

Characterizing superspreading events and age-specific infectiousness of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in Georgia, USA.

It is imperative to advance our understanding of heterogeneities in the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 such as age-specific infectiousness and superspreading. To this end, it is important to exploit multiple data streams that are becoming abundantly available during the pandemic. In this paper, we formulate an individual-level spatiotemporal mechanistic framework to integrate individual surveillance data with geolocation data and aggregate mobility data, enabling a more granular understanding of the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2. We analyze reported cases, between March and early May 2020, in five (urban and rural) counties in the state of Georgia. First, our results show that the reproductive number reduced to below one in about 2 wk after the shelter-in-place order. Superspreading appears to be widespread across space and time, and it may have a particularly important role in driving the outbreak in rural areas and an increasing importance toward later stages of outbreaks in both urban and rural settings. Overall, about 2% of cases were directly responsible for 20% of all infections. We estimate that the infected nonelderly cases (<60 y) may be 2.78 [2.10, 4.22] times more infectious than the elderly, and the former tend to be the main driver of superspreading. Our results improve our understanding of the natural history and transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2. More importantly, we reveal the roles of age-specific infectiousness and characterize systematic variations and associated risk factors of superspreading. These have important implications for the planning of relaxing social distancing and, more generally, designing optimal control measures.

Low SARS-CoV-2 Cq values in healthcare workers with symptomatic COVID-19 infections, regardless of symptom severity, The Netherlands, January to August 2022.

We analysed SARS-CoV-2 PCR Cq values from 3,183 healthcare workers who tested positive between January and August 2022. Median Cq values were lower in symptomatic than in asymptomatic HCW. The difference in Cq values between HCW with mild vs moderate/severe symptoms was statistically significant but negligibly small. To prevent nosocomial infections, all symptomatic HCW should be tested irrespective of symptom severity. This information can support decisions on testing and isolation, in the context of ongoing pressure on healthcare systems.

A Cross-sectional Study of Patients With Extrapulmonary Tuberculosis and Normal Chest Radiographs - What Characteristics Were Associated With Sputum Culture Positivity?

BACKGROUND: Recognizing pulmonary involvement in tuberculosis (TB) patients is necessary to prevent TB transmission. We describe frequency and characteristics of patients with extrapulmonary TB (EPTB), normal chest radiographs, and positive sputum culture. METHODS: We analyzed data of patients ≥15 years of age with EPTB reported to the California TB registry during 2011-2017 with cultured sputum and normal chest radiographs using generalized linear modeling to estimate prevalence ratios associated with positive sputum culture. Demographic, behavioral, clinical characteristics, and testing were compared for patients with positive and negative sputum culture. RESULTS: Of 1635 patients with EPTB and normal chest radiographs, 937 (57%) had sputum culture performed, and 127 (13%) patients had positive results for Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex. Patients with positive results were more likely to: be male, experience homelessness, use substances, have HIV, and have >1 disease site. Among 85 patients with HIV co-infection, 54% had positive culture results compared with 9.5% among 852 patients without HIV co-infection. Patients with EPTB in more than 1 site were also more likely to have a positive sputum culture. CONCLUSIONS: Culturing sputum from patients with EPTB identified pulmonary cases not detected by chest radiograph, particularly among patients with HIV or >1 disease site.

Understanding dynamics of Plasmodium falciparum gametocytes production: Insights from an age-structured model.

Many models of within-host malaria infection dynamics have been formulated since the pioneering work of Anderson et al. in 1989. Biologically, the goal of these models is to understand what governs the severity of infections, the patterns of infectiousness, and the variation thereof across individual hosts. Mathematically, these models are based on dynamical systems, with standard approaches ranging from K-compartments ordinary differential equations (ODEs) to delay differential equations (DDEs), to capture the relatively constant duration of replication and bursting once a parasite infects a host red blood cell. Using malariatherapy data, which offers fine-scale resolution on the dynamics of infection across a number of individual hosts, we compare the fit and robustness of one of these standard approaches (K-compartments ODE) with a partial differential equations (PDEs) model, which explicitly tracks the "age" of an infected cell. While both models perform quite similarly in terms of goodness-of-fit for suitably chosen K, the K-compartments ODE model particularly overestimates parasite densities early on in infections when the number of repeated compartments is not large enough. Finally, the K-compartments ODE model (for suitably chosen K) and the PDE model highlight a strong qualitative connection between the density of transmissible parasite stages (i.e., gametocytes) and the density of host-damaging (and asexually-replicating) parasite stages. This finding provides a simple tool for predicting which hosts are most infectious to mosquitoes -vectors of Plasmodium parasites- which is a crucial component of global efforts to control and eliminate malaria.

Persistence of Plasmodium falciparum HRP-2 antigenaemia after artemisinin combination therapy is not associated with gametocytes.

BACKGROUND: In some settings, sensitive field diagnostic tools may be needed to achieve elimination of falciparum malaria. To this end, rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) based on the detection of the Plasmodium falciparum protein HRP-2 are being developed with increasingly lower limits of detection. However, it is currently unclear how parasite stages that are unaffected by standard drug treatments may contribute to HRP-2 detectability and potentially confound RDT results even after clearance of blood stage infection. This study assessed the detectability of HRP-2 in periods of post-treatment residual gametocytaemia. METHODS: A cohort of 100 P. falciparum infected, gametocyte positive individuals were treated with or without the gametocytocidal drug primaquine (PQ), alongside standard artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT), in the context of a randomised clinical trial in Ouelessebougou, Mali. A quantitative ELISA was used to measure levels of HRP-2, and compared time to test negativity using a standard and ultra-sensitive RDT (uRDT) between residual gametocyte positive and negative groups. RESULTS: Time to test negativity was longest by uRDT, followed by ELISA and then standard RDT. No significant difference in time to negativity was found between the treatment groups with and without residual gametocytes: uRDT (HR 0.79 [95% CI 0.52-1.21], p = 0.28), RDT (HR 0.77 [95% CI 0.51-1.15], p = 0.20) or ELISA (HR 0.88 [95% CI 0.59-1.32], p = 0.53). Similarly, no difference was observed when adjusting for baseline asexual parasite density. Quantified levels of HRP-2 over time were similar between groups, with differences attributable to asexual parasite densities. Furthermore, no difference in levels of HRP-2 was found between individuals who were or were not infectious to mosquitoes (OR 1.19 [95% CI 0.98-1.46], p = 0.077). CONCLUSIONS: Surviving sexual stage parasites after standard ACT treatment do not contribute to the persistence of HRP-2 antigenaemia, and appear to have little impact on RDT results.

A global assessment of the impact of school closure in reducing COVID-19 spread.

Prolonged school closure has been adopted worldwide to control COVID-19. Indeed, UN Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization figures show that two-thirds of an academic year was lost on average worldwide due to COVID-19 school closures. Such pre-emptive implementation was predicated on the premise that school children are a core group for COVID-19 transmission. Using surveillance data from the Chinese cities of Shenzhen and Anqing together, we inferred that compared with the elderly aged 60 and over, children aged 18 and under and adults aged 19-59 were 75% and 32% less susceptible to infection, respectively. Using transmission models parametrized with synthetic contact matrices for 177 jurisdictions around the world, we showed that the lower susceptibility of school children substantially limited the effectiveness of school closure in reducing COVID-19 transmissibility. Our results, together with recent findings that clinical severity of COVID-19 in children is lower, suggest that school closure may not be ideal as a sustained, primary intervention for controlling COVID-19. This article is part of the theme issue 'Data science approach to infectious disease surveillance'.

From more testing to smart testing: data-guided SARS-CoV-2 testing choices, the Netherlands, May to September 2020.

BackgroundSARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR assays are more sensitive than rapid antigen detection assays (RDT) and can detect viral RNA even after an individual is no longer infectious. RDT can reduce the time to test and the results might better correlate with infectiousness.AimWe assessed the ability of five RDT to identify infectious COVID-19 cases and systematically recorded the turnaround time of RT-PCR testing.MethodsSensitivity of RDT was determined using a serially diluted SARS-CoV-2 stock with known viral RNA concentration. The probability of detecting infectious virus at a given viral load was calculated using logistic regression of viral RNA concentration and matched culture results of 78 specimens from randomly selected non-hospitalised cases. The probability of each RDT to detect infectious cases was calculated as the sum of the projected probabilities for viral isolation success for every viral RNA load found at the time of diagnosis in 1,739 confirmed non-hospitalised COVID-19 cases.ResultsThe distribution of quantification cycle values and estimated RNA loads for patients reporting to drive-through testing was skewed to high RNA loads. With the most sensitive RDT (Abbott and SD Biosensor), 97.30% (range: 88.65-99.77) of infectious individuals would be detected. This decreased to 92.73% (range: 60.30-99.77) for Coris BioConcept and GenBody, and 75.53% (range: 17.55-99.77) for RapiGEN. Only 32.9% of RT-PCR results were available on the same day as specimen collection.ConclusionThe most sensitive RDT detected infectious COVID-19 cases with high sensitivity and may considerably improve containment through more rapid isolation and contact tracing.

Three Harm-Based Arguments for a Moral Obligation to Vaccinate.

A particularly strong reason to vaccinate against transmittable diseases, based on considerations of harm, is to contribute to the realization of population-level herd immunity. We argue, however, that herd immunity alone is insufficient for deriving a strong harm-based moral obligation to vaccinate in all circumstances, since the obligation significantly weakens well above and well below the herd immunity threshold. The paper offers two additional harm-based arguments that, together with the herd immunity argument, consolidates our moral obligation. First, we argue that individuals should themselves aim not to expose others to risk of harm, and that this consideration becomes stronger the more non-vaccinated people there are, i.e., the further we are below herd immunity. Second, we elaborate on two pragmatic reasons to vaccinate beyond the realization of herd immunity, pertaining to instability of vaccination rates and population heterogeneity, and argue that vaccinating above the threshold should serve as a precautionary measure for buttressing herd immunity. We also show that considerations of harm have normative primacy in establishing this obligation over considerations of fairness. Although perfectly sound, considerations of fairness are, at worst secondary, or at best complementary to considerations of harm.

Intracellular Passage Triggers a Molecular Response in Brucella abortus That Increases Its Infectiousness.

Brucella abortus is a facultatively extracellular-intracellular pathogen that encounters a diversity of environments within the host cell. We report that bacteria extracted from infected cells at late stages (48 h postinfection) of the intracellular life cycle significantly increase their ability to multiply in new target cells. This increase depends on early interaction with the cell surface, since the bacteria become more adherent and penetrate more efficiently than in vitro-grown bacteria. At this late stage of infection, the bacterium locates within an autophagosome-like compartment, facing starvation and acidic conditions. At this point, the BvrR/BvrS two-component system becomes activated, and the expression of the transcriptional regulator VjbR and the type IV secretion system component VirB increases. Using bafilomycin to inhibit BvrR/BvrS activation and using specific inhibitors for VjbR and VirB, we showed that the BvrR/BvrS and VjbR systems correlate with increased interaction with new host cells, while the VirB system does not. Bacteria released from infected cells under natural conditions displayed the same phenotype as intracellular bacteria. We propose a model in which the B. abortus BvrR/BvrS system senses the transition from its replicative niche at the endoplasmic reticulum to the autophagosome-like exit compartment. This activation leads to the expression of VirB, which participates in the release of the bacterium from the cells, and an increase in VjbR expression that results in a more efficient interaction with new host cells.

Transmission Dynamics in Tuberculosis Patients With Human Immunodeficiency Virus: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis of 32 Observational Studies.

BACKGROUND: There are large knowledge gaps on the transmission dynamics of Mycobacterium tuberculosis in settings where both tuberculosis and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) are endemic. We aimed to assess the infectiousness of tuberculosis patients coinfected with HIV. METHODS: We systematically searched for studies of contacts of both HIV-positive and HIV-negative tuberculosis index cases. Our primary outcome was Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection in contacts. Data on sputum smear and lung cavitation status of index cases were extracted from each study to assess effect modification. Secondary outcomes included prevalent tuberculosis and HIV in contacts of HIV-positive and HIV-negative index cases. RESULTS: Of 5255 original citations identified, 32 studies met inclusion criteria, including 25 studies investigating M. tuberculosis infection (Nparticipants = 36 893), 13 on tuberculosis (Nparticipants = 18 853), and 12 on HIV positivity (Nparticipants = 18 424). Risk of M. tuberculosis infection was lower in contacts of HIV-positive index cases (odds ratio [OR], 0.67, 95% confidence interval [CI], .58-.77) but was heterogeneous (I2 = 75.1%). Two factors modified this relationship: the lung cavitary status of the index case and immunosuppression (measured through CD4 counts or HIV or acquired immunodeficiency syndrome diagnoses) among index people living with HIV. Rates of HIV were consistently higher in contacts of coinfected index cases (OR, 4.9; 95% CI, 3.0-8.0). This was modified by whether the study was in sub-Saharan Africa (OR, 2.8; 95% CI, 1.6-4.9) or in another global region (OR, 9.8; 95% CI, 5.9-16.3). CONCLUSIONS: Tuberculosis patients coinfected with HIV are less infectious than HIV-uninfected cases when they have severe immunosuppression or paucibacillary disease. Contacts of coinfected index cases are almost 5 times more likely to also have HIV.

SARS-CoV-2 Cluster in Nursery, Poland.

We report a cluster of surprisingly high spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) associated with a single nursery in Poland. Our findings contrast with the presumed negligible role of children in driving the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. Children 1-2 years of age might be effective SARS-CoV-2 spreaders.

Assortativity and Bias in Epidemiologic Studies of Contagious Outcomes: A Simulated Example in the Context of Vaccination.

Assortativity is the tendency of individuals connected in a network to share traits and behaviors. Through simulations, we demonstrated the potential for bias resulting from assortativity by vaccination, where vaccinated individuals are more likely to be connected with other vaccinated individuals. We simulated outbreaks of a hypothetical infectious disease and vaccine in a randomly generated network and a contact network of university students living on campus. We varied protection of the vaccine to the individual, transmission potential of vaccinated-but-infected individuals, and assortativity by vaccination. We compared a traditional approach, which ignores the structural features of a network, with simple approaches which summarized information from the network. The traditional approach resulted in biased estimates of the unit-treatment effect when there was assortativity by vaccination. Several different approaches that included summary measures from the network reduced bias and improved confidence interval coverage. Through simulations, we showed the pitfalls of ignoring assortativity by vaccination. While our example is described in terms of vaccines, our results apply more widely to exposures for contagious outcomes. Assortativity should be considered when evaluating exposures for contagious outcomes.

Evaluation of a Rapid Antigen Test To Detect SARS-CoV-2 Infection and Identify Potentially Infectious Individuals.

The identification and isolation of highly infectious SARS-CoV-2-infected individuals is an important public health strategy. Rapid antigen detection tests (RADT) are promising tools for large-scale screenings due to timely results and feasibility for on-site testing. Nonetheless, the diagnostic performance of RADT in detecting infectious individuals is not yet fully determined. In this study, RT-qPCR and virus culture of RT-qPCR-positive samples were used to evaluate and compare the performance of the Standard Q COVID-19 Ag test in detecting SARS-CoV-2-infected and possibly infectious individuals. To this end, two combined oro- and nasopharyngeal swabs were collected at a routine SARS-CoV-2 diagnostic center. A total of 2,028 samples were tested, and 118 virus cultures were inoculated. SARS-CoV-2 infection was detected in 210 samples by RT-qPCR, representing a positive rate of 10.36%. The Standard Q COVID-19 Ag test yielded a positive result in 92 (4.54%) samples resulting in an overall sensitivity and specificity of 42.86 and 99.89%, respectively. For adjusted CT values of <20 (n = 14), <25 (n = 57), and <30 (n = 88), the RADT reached sensitivities of 100, 98.25, and 88.64%, respectively. All 29 culture-positive samples were detected by the RADT. Although the overall sensitivity was low, the Standard Q COVID-19 Ag test reliably detected patients with high RNA loads. In addition, negative RADT results fully corresponded with the lack of viral cultivability in Vero E6 cells. These results indicate that RADT can be a valuable tool for the detection of individuals with high RNA loads that are likely to transmit SARS-CoV-2.