Absolute income mobility obscures marginalized children's disadvantages.

Intergenerational mobility captures the distance between the socioeconomic positions of parents versus their adult children. Researchers measure this distance in absolute and relative units, such as absolute dollars and relative ranks. Absolute and relative mobility often diverge. For example, absolute mobility can rise while relative mobility declines. How should scholars and policymakers understand this divergence? We conclude that they should understand it as follows: absolute mobility is less reflective than relative mobility of marginalized children's socioeconomic disadvantages. We base this conclusion on analyses of survey, administrative, and simulated data on income mobility in the contemporary United States. We analyze multiple points of difference in mobility, which facilitates the recognition of several asymmetries. First, high-income children's experiences weigh more heavily in absolute-mobility trends than low-income children's experiences, particularly when economic growth is positive. Second, this asymmetry is more characteristic of absolute- than relative-mobility trends. Third, absolute-mobility differences across demographic groups are more prone than relative-mobility differences to obscure marginalized groups' socioeconomic disadvantages. These asymmetries have policy implications: We caution that focusing on absolute mobility as a policy target can divert attention away from society's most disadvantaged children.

Social mobility in the Tang Dynasty as the Imperial Examination rose and aristocratic family pedigree declined, 618-907 CE.

Data from the distant past are fertile ground for testing social science theories of education and social mobility. In this study, we construct a dataset from 3,640 tomb epitaphs of males in China's Tang Dynasty (618-907 CE), which contain granular and extensive information about the ancestral origins, family background, and career histories of the deceased elites. Our statistical analysis of the complete profiles yields evidence of the transition away from an aristocratic society in three key trends: 1) family pedigree (i.e., aristocracy) mattered less for career achievement over time, 2) passing the Imperial Examination (Keju) became an increasingly important predictor of one's career achievement, and 3) father's position always mattered throughout the Tang, especially for men who did not pass the Keju. The twilight of medieval Chinese aristocracy, according to the data, began in as early as the mid-seventh century CE.

Childhood PM2.5 exposure and upward mobility in the United States.

Although it is well documented that exposure to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) increases the risk of several adverse health outcomes, less is known about its relationship with economic opportunity. Previous studies have relied on regression modeling, which implied strict assumptions regarding confounding adjustments and did not explore geographical heterogeneity. We obtained data for 63,165 US census tracts (86% of all census tracts in the United States) on absolute upward mobility (AUM) defined as the mean income rank in adulthood of children born to families in the 25th percentile of the national income distribution. We applied and compared several state-of-the-art confounding adjustment methods to estimate the overall and county-specific associations of childhood exposure to PM2.5 and AUM controlling for many census tract-level confounders. We estimate that census tracts with a 1 µg/m3 higher PM2.5 concentrations in 1982 are associated with a statistically significant 1.146% (95% CI: 0.834, 1.458) lower AUM in 2015, on average. We also showed evidence that this relationship varies spatially between counties, exhibiting a more pronounced negative relationship in the Midwest and the South.

The intergenerational sources of the U-turn in gender segregation.

In the early 1970s, the balkanization of the US labor market into "men's occupations" and "women's occupations" began to unravel, as women entered the professions and other male-typed sectors in record numbers. This decline in gender segregation continued on for several decades but then suddenly stalled at the turn of the century and shows no signs of resuming. Although the stall is itself undisputed, its sources remain unclear. Using nearly a half-century of data from the General Social Survey, we show that a resurgence in segregation-inducing forms of intergenerational transmission stands behind the recent stall. Far from serving as impartial conduits, fathers are now disproportionately conveying male-typed occupations to their sons, whereas mothers are effectively gender-neutral in their transmission outcomes. This segregative turn among fathers accounts for 47% of the stall in the gender segregation trend (between 2000 and 2018), while the earlier integrative turn among fathers accounts for 34% of the initial downturn in segregation (between 1972 and 1999). It follows that a U-turn in intergenerational processes lies behind the U-turn in gender segregation.

The Total Effect of Social Origins on Educational Attainment: Meta-analysis of Sibling Correlations From 18 Countries.

The sibling correlation (SC), which estimates the total effect of family background (i.e., social origins), can be interpreted as measuring a society's inequality of opportunity. Its sensitivity to observed and unobserved factors makes the SC an all-encompassing measure and an attractive choice for comparative research. We gather and summarize all available estimates of SCs in educational attainment (M = .46, SD = .09) and employ meta-regression to explore variability in these estimates. First, we find significantly lower SCs in Sweden, Norway, Finland, and Denmark than in the United States, with U.S. correlations roughly .10 (i.e., 25%) higher. Most other (primarily European) countries in our study are estimated to fall in between these countries and the United States. Second, we find a novel Great Gatsby Curve-type positive association between income inequality in childhood and the SC, both cross-nationally and within countries over time. This finding supports theoretical accounts of the Great Gatsby Curve that emphasize the role of educational inequality as a link between economic inequality and social immobility. It implies that greater equality of educational opportunity likely requires reduced economic inequality. Additionally, correlations between sisters are modestly higher, on average, than those between brothers or all siblings, and we find no overall differences between cohorts.

Individualistic culture increases economic mobility in the United States.

Where an individual grows up has large implications for their long-term economic outcomes, including earnings and intergenerational mobility. Even within the United States, the "causal effect of place" varies greatly and cannot be fully explained by socioeconomic conditions. Across different nations, variation in growth and mobility have been linked to more individualistic cultures. We assess how variation of historically driven individualism within the United States affects mobility. Areas in the United States that were isolated on the frontier for longer periods of time during the 19th century have a stronger culture of "rugged individualism" [S. Bazzi, M. Fiszbein, M. Gebresilasse, Econometrica 88, 2329-2368 (2020)]. We combine county-level measures of frontier experience with modern measures of the causal effect of place on mobility-the predicted percentage change in an individual's earnings at age 26 y associated with "growing up" in a particular county [R. Chetty, N. Hendren, Q. J. Econ. 133, 1163-1228 (2018)]. Using commuting zone fixed effects and a suite of county-level controls to absorb regional variation in frontier experience and modern economic conditions, we find an additional decade of frontier experience results in 25% greater modern-day income mobility for children of parents in the 25th percentile of income and 14% for those born to parents in the 75th percentile. We use mediation analysis to present suggestive evidence that informal manifestations of "rugged individualism"-those embodied by the individuals themselves-are more strongly associated with upward mobility than formal policy or selective migration.

Russia's invasion of Ukraine and perceived intergenerational mobility in Europe.

In this study, we shed light on the social consequences the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 has had in other European countries. We argue that positive perceptions of one's intergenerational mobility are linked with political and economic stability and that the war can thus be expected to impact intergenerational mobility perceptions. We test our pre-registered hypothesis with representative survey data from three European countries, the United Kingdom, Germany, and Sweden, which were significantly affected by the ongoing war. Our results show that individuals' war-related concerns in all countries are divided into proximal and distal concerns. In turn, proximal concerns go along with greater perceived downward and less perceived upward mobility in the United Kingdom and Germany. We interpret these findings by calling for expanding the horizons of intergenerational mobility research by incorporating areas of life other than socio-economic position.

Regional variation in intergenerational social mobility in Britain.

We present the first comprehensive set of estimates of variation in intergenerational social mobility across regions of Great Britain using data from the UK Labour Force Survey. Unlike the Social Mobility Index produced by the Social Mobility Commission, we focus directly on variation in measures of intergenerational social class mobility between the regions in which individuals were brought up. We define regions using the NUTS classification and we consider three levels, from 11 large NUTS1 regions, to 168 NUTS3 regions, across England, Wales, and Scotland. We investigate whether it is possible to form an index of social mobility from these measures and we address a neglected question: how much does the region in which someone was raised matter in comparison with the social class in which they were raised?

Occupational Mobility and Chronic Health Conditions in Middle and Later Life: A Systematic Review.

BACKGROUND: Occupational mobility at various stages in the life course may have a cumulative impact on health outcomes and trajectory. This study aims to (1) systematically review empirical evidence regarding the impact of intergenerational and intra-generational occupational mobility on chronic health conditions in middle and later life; and (2) assess the collective evidence on the health consequences of different types of occupational mobility. METHOD: A systematic review of literature was carried out by searching three databases (PubMed, PsycINFO, and SocINDEX) and the reference lists. Eligible studies examined the impact of occupational mobility on at least one chronic health condition among adults aged 35 years or above. The quality of each included study was assessed by standardized tools. RESULTS: Out of 170 identified publications, 16 studies based on 12 independent data sets met the inclusion criteria. There is moderately strong evidence that downward intergenerational occupational mobility and stable low occupational status across generations were associated with worse chronic health conditions. The relationships to chronic health conditions were more pronounced for intergenerational occupational mobility than for intra-generational occupational mobility. Gender differences were observed in the relationship between occupational mobility and health. CONCLUSION: Career advancement interventions should target both the career starters and older employees. More generous unemployment insurance systems are suggested in less egalitarian countries, especially during economic recession periods. Future studies of occupational mobility should give more attention to women and people from developing and Eastern countries.

The changing geography of social mobility in the United States.

New evidence shows that intergenerational social mobility-the rate at which children born into poverty climb the income ladder-varies considerably across the United States. Is this current geography of opportunity something new or does it reflect a continuation of long-term trends? We answer this question by constructing data on the levels and determinants of social mobility across American regions over the 20th century. We find that the changing geography of opportunity-generating economic activity restructures the landscape of intergenerational mobility, but factors associated with specific regional structures of interpersonal and racial inequality that have "deep roots" generate persistence. This is evident in the sharp decline in social mobility in the Midwest as economic activity has shifted away from it and the consistently low levels of opportunity in the South even as economic activity has shifted toward it. We conclude that the long-term geography of social mobility can be understood through the deep roots and changing economic fortunes of places.

Long-term decline in intergenerational mobility in the United States since the 1850s.

We make use of newly available data that include roughly 5 million linked household and population records from 1850 to 2015 to document long-term trends in intergenerational social mobility in the United States. Intergenerational mobility declined substantially over the past 150 y, but more slowly than previously thought. Intergenerational occupational rank-rank correlations increased from less than 0.17 to as high as 0.32, but most of this change occurred to Americans born before 1900. After controlling for the relatively high mobility of persons from farm origins, we find that intergenerational social mobility has been remarkably stable. In contrast with relative stability in rank-based measures of mobility, absolute mobility for the nonfarm population-the fraction of offspring whose occupational ranks are higher than those of their parents-increased for birth cohorts born prior to 1900 and has fallen for those born after 1940.

Intergenerational Economic Mobility for Low-Income Parents and Their Children: A Dual Developmental Science Framework.

In this review we bring a psychological perspective to the issue of intergenerational economic mobility. More specifically, we present a new dual developmental science framework to consider the educational outcomes of parents and children together in order to foster economic mobility. We focus on two key populations: children in early childhood (from birth to age 6) and parents in early adulthood (in their 20s and early 30s). We posit that mastery of three sets of developmental tasks for each generation-academic/language skills, self-regulation/mental health, and parent-child relationship-will lead to improved educational outcomes for both. Taken as a whole, the dual developmental science framework integrates theory and research on single-generation development (i.e., children or parents) with dynamic and bidirectional theories about the interdependence of children and parents over time.We conclude the review by evaluating existing education interventions and research using the dual developmental science framework, and we discuss opportunities for innovation.

Exposure to Childhood Poverty and Racial Differences in Economic Opportunity in Young Adulthood.

Young adults in the United States, especially young Black adults, experience high poverty rates relative to other age groups. Prior research has largely attributed racial disparities in young adult poverty to differential attainment of benchmarks related to education, employment, and family formation. This study investigates that mechanism alongside racial differences in childhood poverty exposure. Analyses of Panel Study of Income Dynamics data reveal that racial differences in childhood poverty are more consequential than differential attainment of education, employment, and family formation benchmarks in shaping racial differences in young adult poverty. Whereas benchmark attainment reduces an individual's likelihood of poverty, racial differences in benchmark attainment do not meaningfully explain Black-White poverty gaps for three reasons. First, childhood poverty is negatively associated with benchmark attainment, generating strong selection effects into the behavioral characteristics associated with lower poverty. Second, benchmark attainment does not equalize poverty rates among Black and White men. Third, Black children experience four times the poverty rate of White children, and childhood poverty has lingering negative consequences for young adult poverty. Although equalizing benchmark attainment would reduce Black-White gaps in young adult poverty, equalizing childhood poverty exposure would have twice the reduction effect.

The Long-Term Consequences of a Golden Nest: Socioeconomic Status in Childhood and the Age at Leaving Home.

The age at leaving the parental home has significant implications for social and economic outcomes across the life course, highlighting the importance of examining nest-leaving patterns. We study the role of childhood standard of living on the age at nest leaving. Using data from the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE), we show empirically that individuals who grow up in families with a higher socioeconomic status-that is, in a golden nest-leave the parental home later than others. Given that better-off individuals tend to obtain more education, and that young adults generally leave the parental home after completing their education, we also find that a higher level of education delays nest leaving. Nonetheless, the positive relationship between socioeconomic status and nest-leaving age still holds for given education levels, across European countries characterized by different cultural traits, for both males and females, and among urban and rural residents. We use a three-period life cycle model to show that this behavior is consistent with standard assumptions about preferences and resources if earnings increase with age. Moreover, habit-forming preferences that assume that utility depends on the gap between current and past consumption reinforce the delaying effect of a golden nest on nest leaving.

The long-term impact of the Communist Revolution on social stratification in contemporary China.

The Chinese Communist Revolution that culminated in the 1949 founding of the People's Republic of China fundamentally transformed class relations in China. With data from a nationally representative, longitudinal survey between 2010 and 2016, this study documents the long-term impact of the Communist Revolution on the social stratification order in today's China, more than 6 decades after the revolution. True to its stated ideological missions, the revolution resulted in promoting the social status of children of the peasant, worker, and revolutionary cadre classes and disadvantaging those who were from privileged classes at the time of the revolution. Although there was a tendency toward "reversion" mitigating the revolution's effects in the third generation toward the grandparents' generation in social status, the overall impact of reversion was small. The revolution effects were most pronounced for the birth cohorts immediately following the revolution, attenuating for recently born cohorts.

American geography of opportunity reveals European origins.

A large literature documents how intergenerational mobility-the degree to which (dis)advantage is passed on from parents to children-varies across and within countries. Less is known about the origin or persistence of such differences. We show that US areas populated by descendants to European immigrants have similar levels of income equality and mobility as the countries their forebears came from: highest in areas dominated by descendants to Scandinavian and German immigrants, lower in places with French or Italian heritage, and lower still in areas with British roots. Similar variation in mobility is found for the black population and when analyzing causal place effects, suggesting that mobility differences arise at the community level and extend beyond descendants of European immigrant groups. Our findings indicate that the geography of US opportunity may have deeper historical roots than previously recognized.

Americans overestimate the intergenerational persistence in income ranks.

Recent research suggests that intergenerational income mobility has remained low and stable in America, but popular discourse routinely assumes that Americans are optimistic about mobility prospects in society. Examining these 2 seemingly contradictory observations requires a careful measurement of the public's perceptions of mobility. Unlike most previous work that measures perceptions about mobility outcomes for the overall population or certain subgroups, we propose a survey instrument that emphasizes the variation in perceived mobility prospects for hypothetical children across parent income ranks. Based on this survey instrument, we derive the perceived relationship between the income ranks of parents and children, which can then be compared against the actual rank-rank relationship reported by empirical work based on tax data. We fielded this instrument in a general population survey experiment (n = 3,077). Our results suggest that Americans overestimate the intergenerational persistence in income ranks. They overestimate economic prospects for children from rich families and underestimate economic prospects for those from poor families.

Heterogeneous Effects of Intergenerational Social Mobility: An Improved Method and New Evidence.

Intergenerational social mobility has immense implications for individuals' well-being, attitudes, and behaviors. However, previous methods may be unreliable for estimating heterogeneous mobility effects, especially in the presence of moderate- or large-scale intergenerational mobility. We propose an improved method, called the "mobility contrast model" (MCM). Using simulation evidence, we demonstrated that the MCM is more flexible and reliable for estimating and testing heterogeneous mobility effects, and the results are robust to the scale of intergenerational mobility. We revisited the debate about the effect of mobility on fertility and analyzed data from the 1962 Occupational Changes in a Generation Study (OCG-1) and more recent data from the 1974 through 2018 General Social Survey (GSS) using both previous models and the MCM. The MCM suggested a small association between fertility and occupational mobility in the GSS data but substantial and heterogeneous educational mobility effects on fertility in the OCG-1 and the GSS. Such effects were difficult to pinpoint using previous methods because mobility effects of different magnitudes and opposite directions among mobility groups may cancel out. The new method can be extended to investigate the effect of intergenerational mobility across multiple generations and other research areas including immigrant assimilation and heterogamy.

Industrial automation and intergenerational income mobility in the United States.

This article examines how the automation of jobs has shaped spatial patterns of intergenerational income mobility in the United States over the past three decades. Using data on the spread of industrial robots across 722 local labor markets, we find significantly lower rates of upward mobility in areas more exposed to automation. The erosion of mobility chances is rooted in childhood environments and is particularly evident among males growing up in low-income households. These findings reveal how recent technological advances have contributed to the unequal patterns of economic opportunity in the United States today.

The Life Course Origins of the Immigrant Advantage? Parental Nativity, Parental Education, and Academic Achievement Gaps From Kindergarten to High School in the United States.

In the United States, there is a wide academic achievement gap, beginning in early childhood, between children with more and less educated parents. However, we know little about the differences in size and trajectories of achievement gaps associated with parental education and nativity. Drawing on two US education datasets that enable me to follow a cohort of children from kindergarten to high school, I estimate the size and trajectories of standardized test-score gaps associated with parental education, separately for children of native-born and immigrant parents. I find that the test-score gap between children with more and less educated native-born parents stays wide and stable from kindergarten entry to high school. In contrast, the test-score gap between children with more and less educated immigrant parents is narrower in kindergarten because of higher achievement of children with less educated immigrant parents, compared to their counterparts with less educated native-born parents. Moreover, the gap between more and less educated immigrant parents further narrows in their early life course because the achievement of children with less educated immigrant parents improves relative to children with more educated immigrant parents. Differences by parental nativity in the size and trajectories of achievement gaps associated with parental education can be partially explained by the fact that children with less educated immigrant parents have relatively greater resources than their peers with less educated native-born parents from early in life. My findings provide evidence that the "immigrant advantage" in academic achievement, a common finding in the literature on immigrant education in the United States, originates early in the life course.