A 5-Year Review of the Impact of Lottery Incentives on HIV-Related Services.

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: Lottery incentives are an innovative approach to encouraging HIV prevention, treatment initiation, and adherence behaviours. This paper reviews the latest research on lottery incentives' impact on HIV-related services, and their effectiveness for motivating behaviours to improve HIV service engagement and HIV health outcomes. RECENT FINDINGS: Our review of ten articles, related to lottery incentives, published between 2018 and 2023 (inclusive) shows that lottery incentives have promise for promoting HIV-related target behaviours. The review highlights that lottery incentives may be better for affecting simpler behaviours, rather than more complex ones, such as voluntary medical male circumcision. This review recommends tailoring lottery incentives, ensuring contextual-relevance, to improve the impact on HIV-related services. Lottery incentives offer tools for improving uptake of HIV-related services. The success of lottery incentives appears to be mediated by context, the value and nature of the incentives, and the complexity of the target behaviour.

Buying a Wealthy Dream: Determinants of Rural Residents' Lottery Purchase Behavior in China.

The expansion of illicit lottery activities has caused significant harm to both agricultural production and the livelihood of rural residents. An analysis of the factors that influence rural residents' participation in underground lotteries can provide crucial insight for regulating the lottery industry's development. This study examines the present state of rural residents' participation in underground lotteries, investigates the factors that impact their participation using the Double-Hurdle model, and further employs the ISM model to evaluate the correlations and hierarchical structure among the factors, using field survey data collected from 603 rural residents in S Province, China. The findings reveal that 53.07% of the respondents have participated in underground lotteries. Risk preference, information acquisition, social networks, age, education, family burden, percentage of agricultural labor, agricultural business scale, and household income significantly affect whether residents purchase lotteries (WPL). All factors, except the percentage of agricultural labor and agricultural business scale, also significantly impact underground lottery spending (LS). Among the significant influencing factors, rural residents' risk preference is the direct surface factor, whereas agricultural business scale, household income, information acquisition, and social networks are the middle indirect factors, and residents' age, education, family burden, and percentage of agricultural labor are the deep-rooted factors. It is recommended to regulate the lottery industry's development can be achieved by enhancing entertainment and cultural activities, expanding economic opportunities, enhancing rural education, increasing law awareness, and improving the public welfare lottery business model. The conclusions offer a valuable reference point for the standardized development of the lottery industry and the promotion of social stability in rural areas.

Winning Exposure and Positive Illusions Among Chinese Lottery Gamblers: Moderating Effects of Lottery Winning Experience and Socioeconomic Status.

Positive illusions and winning exposure are key factors leading to problem lottery gambling, but few studies have examined the relationships between them. 402 Chinese lottery gamblers was conducted with the Winning Exposure Questionnaire, the Positive illusion Questionnaire, the Winning Experience Questionnaire, and the Social and Economic Status Questionnaire to investigate the relationship between winning exposure and positive illusions as well as the moderating role of winning experience and socioeconomic status. The results showed that winning exposure can significantly and positively predict the positive illusions (optimism bias, better than average bias, and illusion of control) of lottery gamblers. The highest winning amount and subjective socioeconomic status significantly moderated the relationship between winning exposure and optimism bias. That was to say, for lottery gamblers with smaller maximum winning amount and lower subjective socioeconomic status, the association between winning exposure and optimism bias was stronger. Furthermore, the moderating effect of highest winning amount in the relationship between winning exposure and better than average bias, and the moderating effects of occupational status and subjective socioeconomic status in the relationship between winning exposure and illusion of control were marginally significant.

Fraud victimization across the lifespan: evidence on repeat victimization using perpetrator data.

Older adults are thought to be more susceptible to scams, yet understanding the relationship between chronological age and victimization is limited by underreporting. This study avoids underreporting bias by merging four longitudinal databases of Americans (N = 1.33 million) who paid money in response to mail scams over 20 years. We investigate the risk of repeat victimization and victimization by multiple scam types over the life course. Victims in their 70s and 80s are 9% more likely to experience another victimization incident than those in their 50s. Those age 18 to 29 are 24% less likely to experience another victimization incident. Relative to adults in their 50s, the odds of victimization by multiple scams are greater for those in their 60s and 70s, but lower for those 80 + . This study demonstrates the research potential in using scammers' data to understand patterns of victimization. Fraud prevention efforts should target older individuals who are at higher risk of repeat victimization and suffer greater losses as a result.

Eco-evolutionary maintenance of diversity in fluctuating environments.

Growing evidence suggests that temporally fluctuating environments are important in maintaining variation both within and between species. To date, however, studies of genetic variation within a population have been largely conducted by evolutionary biologists (particularly population geneticists), while population and community ecologists have concentrated more on diversity at the species level. Despite considerable conceptual overlap, the commonalities and differences of these two alternative paradigms have yet to come under close scrutiny. Here, we review theoretical and empirical studies in population genetics and community ecology focusing on the 'temporal storage effect' and synthesise theories of diversity maintenance across different levels of biological organisation. Drawing on Chesson's coexistence theory, we explain how temporally fluctuating environments promote the maintenance of genetic variation and species diversity. We propose a further synthesis of the two disciplines by comparing models employing traditional frequency-dependent dynamics and those adopting density-dependent dynamics. We then address how temporal fluctuations promote genetic and species diversity simultaneously via rapid evolution and eco-evolutionary dynamics. Comparing and synthesising ecological and evolutionary approaches will accelerate our understanding of diversity maintenance in nature.

Everyone Wins: Vaccine Lotteries Can Cost-Effectively Increase COVID-19 Booster Vaccination Rates.

Booster vaccination remains a key strategy to address the ongoing threat of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). However, take-up has been slow. By the fall of 2022, less than 50% of eligible US residents had received a booster dose. It is a central tenet in health economics that incentives or penalties are necessary to reach optimal vaccination rates. Six rigorous real-world studies provide evidence that COVID-19 vaccine lotteries cost-effectively raised vaccination rates at an estimated cost of $49 to $82 per additional dose. The 5 studies that found no impact of lotteries used statistical methods that underestimated the impact: They were statistically underpowered to detect a small yet cost-effective impact and did not adequately address selection bias. Vaccine lotteries are cost-effective because they not only provide financial incentives but also influence the public via nonfinancial channels: They garner media attention, tap into social networks, combat procrastination, and signal the importance of sustaining high vaccination rates. In fact, vaccine lotteries are likely to be more effective for booster vaccination than for initial doses because barriers to vaccination are higher. The ongoing threat of COVID-19 presents a unique opportunity to develop and implement innovative, evidence-based public health policies like vaccine lotteries to address current challenges.

The effectiveness of financial incentives for COVID-19 vaccination: A systematic review.

Financial incentives are a controversial strategy for increasing vaccination. In this systematic review, we evaluated: 1) the effects of incentives on COVID-19 vaccinations; 2) whether effects differed based on study outcome, study design, incentive type and timing, or sample sociodemographic characteristics; and 3) the cost of incentives per additional vaccine administered. We searched PubMed, EMBASE, Scopus, and Econlit up to March 2022 for terms related to COVID, vaccines, and financial incentives, and identified 38 peer-reviewed, quantitative studies. Independent raters extracted study data and evaluated study quality. Studies examined the impact of financial incentives on COVID-19 vaccine uptake (k = 18), related psychological outcomes (e.g., vaccine intentions, k = 19), or both types of outcomes. For studies of vaccine uptake, none found that financial incentives had a negative effect on uptake, and most rigorous studies found that incentives had a positive effect on uptake. By contrast, studies of vaccine intentions were inconclusive. While three studies concluded that incentives may negatively impact vaccine intentions for some individuals, they had methodological limitations. Study outcomes (uptake versus intentions) and study design (experimental versus observational frameworks) appeared to influence results more than incentive type or timing. Additionally, income and political affiliation may moderate responses to incentives. Most studies evaluating cost per additional vaccine administered found that they ranged from $49-75. Overall, fears about financial incentives decreasing COVID-19 vaccine uptake are not supported by the evidence. Financial incentives likely increase COVID-19 vaccine uptake. While these increases appear to be small, they may be meaningful across populations. Registration: PROSPERO, CRD42022316086 (https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/prospero/display_record.php?ID=CRD42022316086).

Scaling of biological rates with body size as a backbone in the assembly of metacommunity biodiversity.

The dispersal-body mass association has been highlighted as a main determinant of biodiversity patterns in metacommunities. However, less attention has been devoted to other well-recognized determinants of metacommunity diversity: the scaling in density and regional richness with body size. Among active dispersers, the increase in movement with body size may enhance local richness and decrease ß-diversity. Nevertheless, the reduction of population size and regional richness with body mass may determine a negative diversity-body size association. Consequently, metacommunity assembly probably emerges from a balance between the effect of these scalings. We formalize this hypothesis by relating the exponents of size-scaling rules with simulated trends in α-, ß- and γ-diversity with body size. Our results highlight that the diversity-body size relationship in metacommunities may be driven by the combined effect of different scaling rules. Given their ubiquity in most terrestrial and aquatic biotas, these scaling rules may represent the basic determinants-backbone-of biodiversity, over which other mechanisms operate determining metacommunity assembly. Further studies are needed, aimed at explaining biodiversity patterns from functional relationships between biological rates and body size, as well as their association with environmental conditions and species interactions.

Lottery incentives for smoking cessation at the workplace: design and protocol of the smoke-free lottery - a cluster randomized trial.

BACKGROUND: Smoking is the leading behavioral risk factor for the loss of healthy life years. Many smokers want to quit, but have trouble doing so. Financial incentives in workplace settings have shown promising results in supporting smokers and their design influences their impact. Lotteries that leverage behavioral economic insights might improve the effectiveness of workplace cessation support. METHODS AND DESIGN: We examine in a cluster randomized trial if a workplace cessation group training paired with lottery deadlines will increase continuous abstinence rates over and above the cessation training alone. Organizations are randomized to either the control arm or lottery arm. The lotteries capitalize regret aversion by always informing winners at the deadline, but withholding prizes if they smoked. In the lottery-arm, winners are drawn out of all participants within a training group, regardless of their smoking status. In weeks 1-13 there are weekly lotteries. Winners are informed about their prize (€50), but can only claim it if they did not smoke that week, validated biochemically. After 26 weeks, there is a long-term lottery where the winners are informed about their prize (vacation voucher worth €400), but can only claim it if they were abstinent between weeks 13 and 26. The primary outcome is continuous abstinence 52 weeks after the quit date. DISCUSSION: There is a quest for incentives to support smoking cessation that are considered fair, affordable and effective across different socioeconomic groups. Previous use of behavioral economics in the design of lotteries have shown promising results in changing health behavior. This cluster randomized trial aims to demonstrate if these lotteries are also effective for supporting smoking cessation. Therefore the study design and protocol are described in detail in this paper. Findings might contribute to the application and development of effective cessation support at the workplace. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Netherlands Trial Register Identifier: NL8463 . Date of registration: 17-03-2020.

Characteristics of Chinese Lottery Consumers' Financial Literacy and its Relationship with Problem Lottery Gambling.

Problem lottery gambling among lottery consumers has increased globally over the years, rendering it necessary to explore their financial literacy characteristics and to answer whether financial literacy inhibits problem lottery gambling. In the present research, a total of 316 Chinese lottery consumers, who constitute the culturally underrepresented samples in the extant literature, completed a survey about financial literacy and problem lottery gambling. Using the propensity score matching method, we compared financial literacy between Chinese lottery consumers and Chinese general population (N = 10,058). The results showed that the five facets of financial literacy (i.e., financial knowledge, financial capacity, financial management values, financial ethics, and wealth values) among Chinese lottery consumers were significantly lower than Chinese general population. Among Chinese lottery consumers, their Homo sociologicus index (including financial ethics and wealth values) negatively predicted problem lottery gambling, but the Homo economicus index (including financial knowledge, financial capacity, and financial management values) was not significantly associated with problem lottery gambling. The theoretical and practical implications of these findings were discussed.

Who Do I (Not) Ask to Play my Lottery? Effects of Perceived Positive and Negative Agency, Communion and Luck on the Illusion of Control by Proxy.

The paper investigates the illusion of control by proxy in games of chance - an attempt to exert control by assigning it to others who are perceived as more capable, communable or luckier. Following up on research by Wohl & Enzle, who showed participants' preference to ask lucky others to play a lottery instead of doing it themselves, we included proxies with positive and negative qualities in the domains of agency and communion, as well good and bad luck. In three experiments (total N = 249) we tested participants' choices between these proxies and a random number generator in a task consisting of obtaining lottery numbers. We obtained consistent preventative illusions of control (i.e. avoidance of proxies with strictly negative qualities, as well as proxies with positive communion but negative agency), however we observed indifference between proxies with positive qualities and random number generators.

The 'Institutional Lottery': Institutional variation in the processes involved in accessing late abortion in Victoria, Australia.

Despite abortion being decriminalised in Victoria, Australia, access remains difficult, especially at later gestations. Institutions (i.e. health services) place restrictions on the availability of late abortions and/or require additional requirements to be satisfied (e.g. Hospital Termination Review Committee approval), as a consequence of local regulation (i.e. policies and processes determined at the institutional level). This paper reports on the results of 27 interviews with Victorian health professionals about late abortion processes and the operation of Termination Review Committees in Victorian health services, which were analysed thematically. The results reveal the operation of an 'institutional lottery' whereby patients' experiences in seeking late abortion services were variable and largely shaped by the institution(s) they found themselves in.

Quantifying invasibility.

Invasibility, the chance of a population to grow from rarity and become established, plays a fundamental role in population genetics, ecology, epidemiology and evolution. For many decades, the mean growth rate of a species when it is rare has been employed as an invasion criterion. Recent studies show that the mean growth rate fails as a quantitative metric for invasibility, with its magnitude sometimes even increasing while the invasibility decreases. Here we provide two novel formulae, based on the diffusion approximation and a large-deviations (Wentzel-Kramers-Brillouin) approach, for the chance of invasion given the mean growth and its variance. The first formula has the virtue of simplicity, while the second one holds over a wider parameter range. The efficacy of the formulae, including their accompanying data analysis technique, is demonstrated using synthetic time series generated from canonical models and parameterised with empirical data.

How temporal environmental stochasticity affects species richness: Destabilization, neutralization and the storage effect.

Temporal environmental stochasticity (TES), along with the variations of demographic rates associated with it, is ubiquitous in nature. Here we study the effect of TES on the species richness of diverse communities. In such communities the biodiversity at equilibrium reflects the balance between the rate at which new types are added (via migration, mutation or speciation) and the rate of extinction. We analyze a few generic models in which the speciation rate is fixed and TES affects the rate of extinction, and identify three different mechanisms. First, TES increases abundance variations and shortens extinction times, thus decreasing the species richness (destabilizing effect). Second, TES blurs the time-independent fitness differences between species, making the dynamics more symmetric and thereby increasing the diversity (neutralizing effect). Third, the storage effect allows TES to facilitate the invasion of inferior species, again contributing to the species richness. The stabilizing effect of storage declines significantly in diverse communities and it can overcome the destabilizing effect of TES only when environmental fluctuations are rapid enough.

Eliciting risk preferences that predict risky health behavior: A comparison of two approaches.

Information on attitudes to risk could increase understanding of and explain risky health behaviors. We investigate two approaches to eliciting risk preferences in the health domain, a novel "indirect" lottery elicitation approach with health states as outcomes and a "direct" approach where respondents are asked directly about their willingness to take risks. We compare the ability of the two approaches to predict health-related risky behaviors in a general adult population. We also investigate a potential framing effect in the indirect lottery elicitation approach. We find that risk preferences elicited using the direct approach can better predict health-related risky behavior than those elicited using the indirect approach. Moreover, a seemingly innocuous change to the framing of the lottery question results in significantly different risk preference estimates, and conflicting conclusions about the ability of the indicators to predict risky health behaviors.

The fairness of ventilator allocation during the COVID-19 pandemic.

There is ongoing debate on how to fairly allocate scarce critical care resources to patients with COVID-19. The debate revolves around two views: those who believe that priority for scarce resources should primarily aim at saving the most lives (SML) or at saving the most life-years, and those who believe that public health should focus on health equity to address health disparities and social determinants of health. I argue that maximizing medical outcomes by saving the greatest number of patients is not a plausible strategy for combating COVID-19. There are reasons of fairness to give each patient who can meet general eligibility requirements a chance of being saved. Rather than focusing on outcome maximization, a better solution would be the individualist lottery that takes account of probability of survival and duration of treatment. Although the individualist lottery allocates scarce resources in a fair way that is responsive to health equity concerns, it still gives considerable weight to the concern of SML. Thus, this procedure can be reasonably accepted by all key stakeholders.

Promised and Lottery Airtime Incentives to Improve Interactive Voice Response Survey Participation Among Adults in Bangladesh and Uganda: Randomized Controlled Trial.

BACKGROUND: Increased mobile phone penetration allows the interviewing of respondents using interactive voice response surveys in low- and middle-income countries. However, there has been little investigation of the best type of incentive to obtain data from a representative sample in these countries. OBJECTIVE: We assessed the effect of different airtime incentives options on cooperation and response rates of an interactive voice response survey in Bangladesh and Uganda. METHODS: The open-label randomized controlled trial had three arms: (1) no incentive (control), (2) promised airtime incentive of 50 Bangladeshi Taka (US $0.60; 1 BDT is approximately equivalent to US $0.012) or 5000 Ugandan Shilling (US $1.35; 1 UGX is approximately equivalent to US $0.00028), and (3) lottery incentive (500 BDT and 100,000 UGX), in which the odds of winning were 1:20. Fully automated random-digit dialing was used to sample eligible participants aged ≥18 years. The risk ratios (RRs) with 95% confidence intervals for primary outcomes of response and cooperation rates were obtained using log-binomial regression. RESULTS: Between June 14 and July 14, 2017, a total of 546,746 phone calls were made in Bangladesh, with 1165 complete interviews being conducted. Between March 26 and April 22, 2017, a total of 178,572 phone calls were made in Uganda, with 1248 complete interviews being conducted. Cooperation rates were significantly higher for the promised incentive (Bangladesh: 39.3%; RR 1.38, 95% CI 1.24-1.55, P<.001; Uganda: 59.9%; RR 1.47, 95% CI 1.33-1.62, P<.001) and the lottery incentive arms (Bangladesh: 36.6%; RR 1.28, 95% CI 1.15-1.45, P<.001; Uganda: 54.6%; RR 1.34, 95% CI 1.21-1.48, P<.001) than those for the control arm (Bangladesh: 28.4%; Uganda: 40.9%). Similarly, response rates were significantly higher for the promised incentive (Bangladesh: 26.5%%; RR 1.26, 95% CI 1.14-1.39, P<.001; Uganda: 41.2%; RR 1.27, 95% CI 1.16-1.39, P<.001) and lottery incentive arms (Bangladesh: 24.5%%; RR 1.17, 95% CI 1.06-1.29, P=.002; Uganda: 37.9%%; RR 1.17, 95% CI 1.06-1.29, P=.001) than those for the control arm (Bangladesh: 21.0%; Uganda: 32.4%). CONCLUSIONS: Promised or lottery airtime incentives improved survey participation and facilitated a large sample within a short period in 2 countries. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT03773146; http://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT03773146.

What we bet on is not only tangible money, but also good mood.

A surprisingly large number of lottery prizes go unclaimed every year. This leads us to suspect that what people bet on is not only money, but also good mood. We conducted three studies to explain, from an emotional perspective, why people play lottery games. We first conducted two survey studies to assess mood state reported by online (Study 1a) and offline lottery buyers (Study 1b) at different stages of lottery play. The results revealed that participants' highest mood appeared before knowing whether they had won. In Study 2, we manipulated the means of reward (lottery tickets vs. cash) and compared participants' mood changes at different stages of a rewards game in the laboratory. We found the following: first, lottery group participants were generally in a better mood; second, 42% of lottery group participants did not come to the laboratory to collect scratch cards; and third, lottery group participants took more time to return to the laboratory to check their tickets than participants in the cash group. In Study 3, we examined whether priming good or bad mood could influence participants' preferences for cash versus lottery tickets. The results revealed that participants who were primed for poor mood had a higher preference for lottery tickets compared with their good mood counterparts. These findings suggest that what our participants sought in lottery play was not only money, but improved mood.

Consumer Profile Segmentation in Online Lottery Gambling Utilizing Behavioral Tracking Data from the Portuguese National Lottery.

The present study is the first to examine account-based tracking data of Portuguese online lottery players comprising the gambling activity of all active players over a one-year period (N = 154,585). The main research goal was the identification of groups or segments of players by their engagement levels (high, neutral, low) and to assess preferences in product category with the use of CHAID (Chi-Square Automatic Interaction Detection) segmentation models, based on expenditure and sociodemographic variables. Findings showed that (1) age was found to be the most influential differentiating variable in player segmentation and had a positive correlation with expenditures and wagers, (2) gender was the second most influential variable (males represented 78.7% of players), (3) education the third most influential variable and had a negative correlation with expenditure, and (4) region was the least relevant variable. The models generated several players segments that engaged in different games. Older males (54-64 years; ≥ 65 years) were the most engaged overall. Younger males (18-34 years) were the least engaged but showed preferences for lotto as did females (35-49 years). Lower educated males and older males (49 years+) with a high school education were the most engaged in instant lottery games. These findings show that Portuguese lottery players can be grouped into several segments with distinct demographic characteristics and corresponding engagement levels. These findings help support more effective marketing segmentation and will help in the targeting of responsible gambling approaches.

Lotteries, bookmaking and ancient randomizers: Local and global analyses of chance.

A local analysis of a chance system recovers the properties of the totality by accumulating the chance properties of its components. A global analysis considers only the properties of the chance system taken as a whole. It can sometimes provide an easier demonstration of the fitness for purpose of chance systems. Such is the case for the operators of lotteries and for bookmakers at a racetrack. Physical randomizers akin to dice were used extensively in antiquity for gambling, drawing lots and in divination. There is no ancient account of the fitness of these randomizers for these purposes and no ancient theory of the individual chances of outcomes. A global analysis can establish their fitness for purpose. If the rules of gambling and lot drawing are such that everyone has an equal opportunity, they are fair, independently of the individual, local chances. The randomizers are fit for the purposes of divination in so far as it is believed that the oracle has no control on the outcomes of the randomizers. In asking why some earlier culture did not discover probability theory, we presume incorrectly an inevitability to probability theory. The better question is why any culture found the theory at all.