Resurgence of Kawasaki Disease Following Relaxation of Coronavirus Disease 2019 Pandemic Restrictions in Japan.

OBJECTIVE: To compare the number and incidence of Kawasaki disease (KD) patients in years 2 through 4 of the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic, and determine the impact of 3 years of implementation of infection control measures and their subsequent relaxation on the epidemiology of KD in Japan. STUDY DESIGN: We conducted a population-based, cohort study including consecutive KD patients in Kobe City between 2021 and 2023. We compared the incidence of KD cases, in relation to timing of infection control measures, as well as infectious disease cases based on a regional surveillance system. Data from a previous 2016 through 2020 study were used for comparison. RESULTS: A total of 566 children with KD were identified during the study period. During the infection control period in 2021 to 2022, the incidence of KD remained low compared with the prepandemic level (281.3 and 327.5/100 000 children aged 0-4 years in 2021 to 2022 and 2016 through 2019, respectively), but a recovery trend began in the 0-1-year age group. During the relaxation period in 2023, the incidence of KD increased across a wide-age range, reaching the highest recorded in Japan (426.7/100 000 children aged 0-4 years), and the median age of onset increased to age 30 months. The resurgence of KD coincided with the epidemic patterns for multiple infectious diseases in 2023. The seasonality of KD observed before the pandemic was altered. CONCLUSIONS: KD resurged in 2023 after relaxation of the prolonged coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic restrictions in Japan. This phenomenon coincided with the rise of multiple infectious diseases, and supports the pathogenesis of KD being triggered by infectious agents.

A model-based assessment of social isolation practices for COVID-19 outbreak response in residential care facilities.

BACKGROUND: Residential aged-care facilities (RACFs, also called long-term care facilities, aged care homes, or nursing homes) have elevated risks of respiratory infection outbreaks and associated disease burden. During the COVID-19 pandemic, social isolation policies were commonly used in these facilities to prevent and mitigate outbreaks. We refer specifically to general isolation policies that were intended to reduce contact between residents, without regard to confirmed infection status. Such policies are controversial because of their association with adverse mental and physical health indicators and there is a lack of modelling that assesses their effectiveness. METHODS: In consultation with the Australian Government Department of Health and Aged Care, we developed an agent-based model of COVID-19 transmission in a structured population, intended to represent the salient characteristics of a residential care environment. Using our model, we generated stochastic ensembles of simulated outbreaks and compared summary statistics of outbreaks simulated under different mitigation conditions. Our study focuses on the marginal impact of general isolation (reducing social contact between residents), regardless of confirmed infection. For a realistic assessment, our model included other generic interventions consistent with the Australian Government's recommendations released during the COVID-19 pandemic: isolation of confirmed resident cases, furlough (mandatory paid leave) of staff members with confirmed infection, and deployment of personal protective equipment (PPE) after outbreak declaration. RESULTS: In the absence of any asymptomatic screening, general isolation of residents to their rooms reduced median cumulative cases by approximately 27%. However, when conducted concurrently with asymptomatic screening and isolation of confirmed cases, general isolation reduced the median number of cumulative infections by only 12% in our simulations. CONCLUSIONS: Under realistic sets of assumptions, our simulations showed that general isolation of residents did not provide substantial benefits beyond those achieved through screening, isolation of confirmed cases, and deployment of PPE. Our results also highlight the importance of effective case isolation, and indicate that asymptomatic screening of residents and staff may be warranted, especially if importation risk from the outside community is high. Our conclusions are sensitive to assumptions about the proportion of total contacts in a facility accounted for by casual interactions between residents.

Rise in complications of acute otitis media during and after the COVID-19 pandemic.

PURPOSE: After the lifting of nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) during the COVID-19 pandemic, clinical observation showed an increase in complications of acute otitis, followed by a rise in the number of mastoidectomies performed. The aim of this study was to record the number of mastoidectomies performed before, during and after the COVID-19 pandemic as an indicator for complications of acute otitis media. METHODS: Data were collected from a tertiary hospital in a university setting, as well as from four major public health insurance companies in Germany. The data of 24,824,763 German citizens during a period from 2014 until 2023 were analyzed. RESULTS: According to the data, during the COVID-19 pandemic, the number of mastoidectomies performed dropped by 54% for children aged 0-6 and by 62% for children aged 7-18. For adults, there were 30% fewer mastoidectomies performed between 2020 and 2022. After the lifting of most NPI's in the season from July 2022 to June 2023, there was a sharp increase in the number of mastoidectomies performed on patients of all ages. CONCLUSIONS: During the COVID-19 pandemic, a decrease in the number of mastoidectomies performed was seen, suggesting a lower incidence of complicated acute otitis, most likely linked to the general decrease of upper airway infections due to NPI's. In contrast, a sharp increase in the incidence of complicated otitis occurred after the hygiene measures were lifted. The current development causes a more frequent performance of mastoidectomies, thus entailing a change in the challenges for everyday clinical practice.

Changes in the Incidence of Invasive Bacterial Disease During the COVID-19 Pandemic in the United States, 2014-2020.

BACKGROUND: Descriptions of changes in invasive bacterial disease (IBD) epidemiology during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic in the United States are limited. METHODS: We investigated changes in the incidence of IBD due to Streptococcus pneumoniae, Haemophilus influenzae, group A Streptococcus (GAS), and group B Streptococcus (GBS). We defined the COVID-19 pandemic period as 1 March to 31 December 2020. We compared observed IBD incidences during the pandemic to expected incidences, consistent with January 2014 to February 2020 trends. We conducted secondary analysis of a health care database to assess changes in testing by blood and cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) culture during the pandemic. RESULTS: Compared with expected incidences, the observed incidences of IBD due to S. pneumoniae, H. influenzae, GAS, and GBS were 58%, 60%, 28%, and 12% lower during the pandemic period of 2020, respectively. Declines from expected incidences corresponded closely with implementation of COVID-19-associated nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). Significant declines were observed across all age and race groups, and surveillance sites for S. pneumoniae and H. influenzae. Blood and CSF culture testing rates during the pandemic were comparable to previous years. CONCLUSIONS: NPIs likely contributed to the decline in IBD incidence in the United States in 2020; observed declines were unlikely to be driven by reductions in testing.

Real-time forecasting of COVID-19 spread according to protective behavior and vaccination: autoregressive integrated moving average models.

BACKGROUND: Mathematical and statistical models are used to predict trends in epidemic spread and determine the effectiveness of control measures. Automatic regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models are used for time-series forecasting, but only few models of the 2019 coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic have incorporated protective behaviors or vaccination, known to be effective for pandemic control. METHODS: To improve the accuracy of prediction, we applied newly developed ARIMA models with predictors (mask wearing, avoiding going out, and vaccination) to forecast weekly COVID-19 case growth rates in Canada, France, Italy, and Israel between January 2021 and March 2022. The open-source data was sourced from the YouGov survey and Our World in Data. Prediction performance was evaluated using the root mean square error (RMSE) and the corrected Akaike information criterion (AICc). RESULTS: A model with mask wearing and vaccination variables performed best for the pandemic period in which the Alpha and Delta viral variants were predominant (before November 2021). A model using only past case growth rates as autoregressive predictors performed best for the Omicron period (after December 2021). The models suggested that protective behaviors and vaccination are associated with the reduction of COVID-19 case growth rates, with booster vaccine coverage playing a particularly vital role during the Omicron period. For example, each unit increase in mask wearing and avoiding going out significantly reduced the case growth rate during the Alpha/Delta period in Canada (-0.81 and -0.54, respectively; both p < 0.05). In the Omicron period, each unit increase in the number of booster doses resulted in a significant reduction of the case growth rate in Canada (-0.03), Israel (-0.12), Italy (-0.02), and France (-0.03); all p < 0.05. CONCLUSIONS: The key findings of this study are incorporating behavior and vaccination as predictors led to accurate predictions and highlighted their significant role in controlling the pandemic. These models are easily interpretable and can be embedded in a "real-time" schedule with weekly data updates. They can support timely decision making about policies to control dynamically changing epidemics.

The indirect impacts of nonpharmacological COVID-19 control measures on other infectious diseases in Yinchuan, Northwest China: a time series study.

BACKGROUND: Various nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) against COVID-19 continue to have an impact on socioeconomic and population behaviour patterns. However, the effect of NPIs on notifiable infectious diseases remains inconclusive due to the variability of the disease spectrum, high-incidence endemic diseases and environmental factors across different geographical regions. Thus, it is of public health interest to explore the influence of NPIs on notifiable infectious diseases in Yinchuan, Northwest China. METHODS: Based on data on notifiable infectious diseases (NIDs), air pollutants, meteorological data, and the number of health institutional personnel in Yinchuan, we first fitted dynamic regression time series models to the incidence of NIDs from 2013 to 2019 and then estimated the incidence for 2020. Then, we compared the projected time series data with the observed incidence of NIDs in 2020. We calculated the relative reduction in NIDs at different emergency response levels in 2020 to identify the impacts of NIPs on NIDs in Yinchuan. RESULTS: A total of 15,711 cases of NIDs were reported in Yinchuan in 2020, which was 42.59% lower than the average annual number of cases from 2013 to 2019. Natural focal diseases and vector-borne infectious diseases showed an increasing trend, as the observed incidence in 2020 was 46.86% higher than the estimated cases. The observed number of cases changed in respiratory infectious diseases, intestinal infectious diseases and sexually transmitted or bloodborne diseases were 65.27%, 58.45% and 35.01% higher than the expected number, respectively. The NIDs with the highest reductions in each subgroup were hand, foot, and mouth disease (5854 cases), infectious diarrhoea (2157 cases) and scarlet fever (832 cases), respectively. In addition, it was also found that the expected relative reduction in NIDs in 2020 showed a decline across different emergency response levels, as the relative reduction dropped from 65.65% (95% CI: -65.86%, 80.84%) during the level 1 response to 52.72% (95% CI: 20.84%, 66.30%) during the level 3 response. CONCLUSIONS: The widespread implementation of NPIs in 2020 may have had significant inhibitory effects on the incidence of respiratory infectious diseases, intestinal infectious diseases and sexually transmitted or bloodborne diseases. The relative reduction in NIDs during different emergency response levels in 2020 showed a declining trend as the response level changed from level 1 to level 3. These results can serve as essential guidance for policy-makers and stakeholders to take specific actions to control infectious diseases and protect vulnerable populations in the future.

Modeling between-population variation in COVID-19 dynamics in Hubei, Lombardy, and New York City.

As the COVID-19 pandemic continues, formulating targeted policy interventions that are informed by differential severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission dynamics will be of vital importance to national and regional governments. We develop an individual-level model for SARS-CoV-2 transmission that accounts for location-dependent distributions of age, household structure, and comorbidities. We use these distributions together with age-stratified contact matrices to instantiate specific models for Hubei, China; Lombardy, Italy; and New York City, United States. Using data on reported deaths to obtain a posterior distribution over unknown parameters, we infer differences in the progression of the epidemic in the three locations. We also examine the role of transmission due to particular age groups on total infections and deaths. The effect of limiting contacts by a particular age group varies by location, indicating that strategies to reduce transmission should be tailored based on population-specific demography and social structure. These findings highlight the role of between-population variation in formulating policy interventions. Across the three populations, though, we find that targeted "salutary sheltering" by 50% of a single age group may substantially curtail transmission when combined with the adoption of physical distancing measures by the rest of the population.

Understanding the Potential Drivers for Respiratory Syncytial Virus Rebound During the Coronavirus Disease 2019 Pandemic.

Nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) were widely introduced to combat the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. These interventions also likely led to substantially reduced activity of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV). From late 2020, some countries observed out-of-season RSV epidemics. Here, we analyzed the role of NPIs, population mobility, climate, and severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 circulation in RSV rebound through a time-to-event analysis across 18 countries. Full (re)opening of schools was associated with an increased risk for RSV rebound (hazard ratio [HR], 23.29 [95% confidence interval {CI}, 1.09-495.84]); every 5°C increase in temperature was associated with a decreased risk (HR, 0.63 [95% CI, .40-.99]). There was an increasing trend in the risk for RSV rebound over time, highlighting the role of increased population susceptibility. No other factors were found to be statistically significant. Further analysis suggests that increasing population susceptibility and full (re)opening of schools could both override the countereffect of high temperatures, which explains the out-of-season RSV epidemics during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Vaccination strategy for preventing the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in the limited supply condition: A mathematical modeling study.

To mitigate SARS-CoV-2 transmission, vaccines have been urgently approved. With their limited availability, it is critical to distribute the vaccines reasonably. We simulated the SARS-CoV-2 transmission for 365 days over four intervention periods: free transmission, structural mitigation, personal mitigation, and vaccination. Sensitivity analyses were performed to obtain robust results. We further evaluated two proposed vaccination allocations, including one-dose-high-coverage and two-doses-low-coverage, when the supply was low. 33.35% (infection rate, 2.68 in 10 million people) and 40.54% (2.36) of confirmed cases could be avoided as the nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) adherence rate rose from 50% to 70%. As the vaccination coverage reached 60% and 80%, the total infections could be reduced by 32.72% and 41.19%, compared to the number without vaccination. When the durations of immunity were 90 and 120 days, the infection rates were 2.67 and 2.38. As the asymptomatic infection rate rose from 30% to 50%, the infection rate increased 0.92 (SD, 0.16) times. Conditioned on 70% adherence rate, with the same amount of limited available vaccines, the 20% and 40% vaccination coverage of one-dose-high-coverage, the infection rates were 2.70 and 2.35; corresponding to the two-doses-low-coverage with 10% and 20% vaccination coverage, the infection rates were 3.22 and 2.92. Our results indicated as the duration of immunity prolonged, the second wave of SARS-CoV-2 would be delayed and the scale would be declined. On average, the total infections in two-doses-low-coverage was 1.48 times (SD, 0.24) as high as that in one-dose-high-coverage. It is crucial to encourage people in order to improve vaccination coverage and establish immune barriers. Particularly when the supply is limited, a wiser strategy to prevent SARS-CoV-2 is equally distributing doses to the same number of individuals. Besides vaccination, NPIs are equally critical to the prevention of widespread of SARS-CoV-2.

High burden of RSV hospitalizations in Germany 2021-2022.

BACKGROUND: Public health measures implemented to mitigate the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic disrupted the worldwide transmission of endemic respiratory viruses such as RSV, as well as other typical, seasonal, and viral respiratory pathogens. METHODS: From October 18, 2021 to March 31, 2022, RSV cases admitted to German pediatric hospitals were monitored via a newly established, national, Clinician-Led Reporting System (CLRS) that recorded patient age and type of respiratory support. A subanalysis of the first 4 months of the monitoring period was additionally performed. RESULTS: In October 2021, a total of 471 hospitalized pediatric RSV cases per day were documented by 67 reporting hospitals. By January 2022, this number dropped to three cases at 11 hospitals (median of reporting hospitals: 37 (11%)). During these months, the median of hospitalized children on general wards and intensive care units was 133 and 15, respectively. In the subanalysis conducted to examine the period October to January, an average of 3.6 ± 2.2 patients per hospital per day were hospitalized on general wards (median 4 cases; range 0.3-8 cases), whereas 0.4 ± 2.2 patients were on intensive care units (median 0.3 cases; range 0-0.9 cases), with 11.5% receiving respiratory support. The majority of patients were under 2 years old. CONCLUSION: The overall burden of out-of-season RSV cases was extraordinarily high in Germany in 2021-2022. The newly established CLRS may help evaluate and, therefore, better allocate local and national pediatric care resources.

Regional opening strategies with commuter testing and containment of new SARS-CoV-2 variants in Germany.

BACKGROUND: Despite the vaccination process in Germany, a large share of the population is still susceptible to SARS-CoV-2. In addition, we face the spread of novel variants. Until we overcome the pandemic, reasonable mitigation and opening strategies are crucial to balance public health and economic interests. METHODS: We model the spread of SARS-CoV-2 over the German counties by a graph-SIR-type, metapopulation model with particular focus on commuter testing. We account for political interventions by varying contact reduction values in private and public locations such as homes, schools, workplaces, and other. We consider different levels of lockdown strictness, commuter testing strategies, or the delay of intervention implementation. We conduct numerical simulations to assess the effectiveness of the different intervention strategies after one month. The virus dynamics in the regions (German counties) are initialized randomly with incidences between 75 and 150 weekly new cases per 100,000 inhabitants (red zones) or below (green zones) and consider 25 different initial scenarios of randomly distributed red zones (between 2 and 20% of all counties). To account for uncertainty, we consider an ensemble set of 500 Monte Carlo runs for each scenario. RESULTS: We find that the strength of the lockdown in regions with out of control virus dynamics is most important to avoid the spread into neighboring regions. With very strict lockdowns in red zones, commuter testing rates of twice a week can substantially contribute to the safety of adjacent regions. In contrast, the negative effect of less strict interventions can be overcome by high commuter testing rates. A further key contributor is the potential delay of the intervention implementation. In order to keep the spread of the virus under control, strict regional lockdowns with minimum delay and commuter testing of at least twice a week are advisable. If less strict interventions are in favor, substantially increased testing rates are needed to avoid overall higher infection dynamics. CONCLUSIONS: Our results indicate that local containment of outbreaks and maintenance of low overall incidence is possible even in densely populated and highly connected regions such as Germany or Western Europe. While we demonstrate this on data from Germany, similar patterns of mobility likely exist in many countries and our results are, hence, generalizable to a certain extent.

Respiratory Syncytial Virus Outbreak Without Influenza in the Second Year of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 Pandemic: A National Sentinel Surveillance in Korea, 2021-2022 Season.

BACKGROUND: This study aimed to investigate whether respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) and influenza virus (IFV) infections would occur in 2021-2022 as domestic nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) are easing. METHODS: Data were collected from the Korean Influenza and Respiratory Virus Monitoring System database. The weekly positivity rates of respiratory viruses and number of hospitalizations for acute respiratory infections were evaluated (January 2016-2022). The period from February 2020 to January 2022 was considered the NPI period. The autoregressive integrated moving average model and Poisson analysis were used for data analysis. Data from 14 countries/regions that reported positivity rates of RSV and IFV were also investigated. RESULTS: Compared with the pre-NPI period, the positivity and hospitalization rates for IFV infection during 2021-2022 significantly decreased to 0.0% and 1.0%, respectively, at 0.0% and 1.2% of the predicted values, respectively. The RSV infection positivity rate in 2021-2022 was 1.8-fold higher than that in the pre-NPI period at 1.5-fold the predicted value. The hospitalization rate for RSV was 20.0% of that in the pre-NPI period at 17.6% of the predicted value. The re-emergence of RSV and IFV infections during 2020-2021 was observed in 13 and 4 countries, respectively. CONCLUSION: During 2021-2022, endemic transmission of the RSV, but not IFV, was observed in Korea.

Shift in Clinical Epidemiology of Human Parainfluenza Virus Type 3 and Respiratory Syncytial Virus B Infections in Korean Children Before and During the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Multicenter Retrospective Study.

BACKGROUND: Parainfluenza virus type 3 (PIV3) and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) B epidemics occurred in South Korea in late 2021. We investigated epidemiological changes of PIV3 and RSV B infections in Korean children before and during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. METHODS: In this multicenter retrospective study, we enrolled patients aged less than 19 years with PIV3 or RSV infection in four university hospitals from January 2018 to January 2022. Demographic and clinical data were extracted from the subject's medical records and analyzed for each virus. RESULTS: A total of 652 children with PIV3 were identified including three epidemics: 216 in 2018, 260 in 2019, and 167 in 2021. Among 627 RSV B cases, 169 were identified in 2017/2018, 274 in 2019/2020, and 115 in 2021/2022. The peak circulation of PIV3 and RSV B epidemics were delayed by 6 and 2 months, respectively, in 2021, compared with those in the pre-COVID-19 period. The median age of PIV3 infections increased in 2021 (21.5 months in 2021 vs. 13.0-14.0 in 2018-2019; P < 0.001), whereas that of RSV B infections remained unchanged (3.6-4.0 months). During the COVID-19 pandemic, less frequent hospitalization rates were observed for both PIV3 and RSV B infections, but more children needed respiratory assistance for RSV B infection in 2021/2022 epidemic (32.5%) than before (14.7-19.4%, P = 0.014). CONCLUSION: We observed changes in the epidemiology and clinical presentation of PIV3 and RSV B infections in Korean children during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Impact of Nonpharmaceutical Interventions on the Incidence of Respiratory Infections During the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Outbreak in Korea: A Nationwide Surveillance Study.

BACKGROUND: Many countries have implemented nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to slow the spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). We aimed to determine whether NPIs led to the decline in the incidences of respiratory infections. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective, ecological study using a nationwide notifiable diseases database and a respiratory virus sample surveillance collected from January 2016 through July 2020 in the Republic of Korea. Intervention period was defined as February-July 2020, when the government implemented NPIs nationwide. Observed incidences in the intervention period were compared with the predicted incidences by an autoregressive integrated moving average model and the 4-year mean cumulative incidences (CuIs) in the same months of the preintervention period. RESULTS: Five infectious diseases met the inclusion criteria: chickenpox, mumps, invasive pneumococcal disease, scarlet fever, and pertussis. The incidences of chickenpox and mumps during the intervention period were significantly lower than the prediction model. The CuIs (95% confidence interval) of chickenpox and mumps were 36.4% (23.9-76.3%) and 63.4% (48.0-93.3%) of the predicted values. Subgroup analysis showed that the decrease in the incidence was universal for chickenpox, while mumps showed a marginal reduction among those aged <18 years, but not in adults. The incidence of respiratory viruses was significantly lower than both the predicted incidence (19.5%; 95% confidence interval, 11.8-55.4%) and the 4-year mean CuIs in the preintervention period (24.5%; P < .001). CONCLUSIONS: The implementation of NPIs was associated with a significant reduction in the incidences of several respiratory infections in Korea.

COVID-19 false dichotomies and a comprehensive review of the evidence regarding public health, COVID-19 symptomatology, SARS-CoV-2 transmission, mask wearing, and reinfection.

Scientists across disciplines, policymakers, and journalists have voiced frustration at the unprecedented polarization and misinformation around coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Several false dichotomies have been used to polarize debates while oversimplifying complex issues. In this comprehensive narrative review, we deconstruct six common COVID-19 false dichotomies, address the evidence on these topics, identify insights relevant to effective pandemic responses, and highlight knowledge gaps and uncertainties. The topics of this review are: 1) Health and lives vs. economy and livelihoods, 2) Indefinite lockdown vs. unlimited reopening, 3) Symptomatic vs. asymptomatic severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection, 4) Droplet vs. aerosol transmission of SARS-CoV-2, 5) Masks for all vs. no masking, and 6) SARS-CoV-2 reinfection vs. no reinfection. We discuss the importance of multidisciplinary integration (health, social, and physical sciences), multilayered approaches to reducing risk ("Emmentaler cheese model"), harm reduction, smart masking, relaxation of interventions, and context-sensitive policymaking for COVID-19 response plans. We also address the challenges in understanding the broad clinical presentation of COVID-19, SARS-CoV-2 transmission, and SARS-CoV-2 reinfection. These key issues of science and public health policy have been presented as false dichotomies during the pandemic. However, they are hardly binary, simple, or uniform, and therefore should not be framed as polar extremes. We urge a nuanced understanding of the science and caution against black-or-white messaging, all-or-nothing guidance, and one-size-fits-all approaches. There is a need for meaningful public health communication and science-informed policies that recognize shades of gray, uncertainties, local context, and social determinants of health.

Policy disparities in response to the first wave of COVID-19 between China and Germany.

OBJECTIVE: Our research summarized policy disparities in response to the first wave of COVID-19 between China and Germany. We look forward to providing policy experience for other countries still in severe epidemics. METHODS: We analyzed data provided by National Health Commission of the People's Republic of China and Johns Hopkins University Coronavirus Resource Center for the period 10 January 2020 to 25 May 252,020. We used generalized linear model to evaluate the associations between the main control policies and the number of confirmed cases and the policy disparities in response to the first wave of COVID-19 between China and Germany. RESULTS: The generalized linear models show that the following factors influence the cumulative number of confirmed cases in China: the Joint Prevention and Control Mechanism; locking down the worst-hit areas; the highest level response to public health emergencies; the expansion of medical insurance coverage to suspected patients; makeshift hospitals; residential closed management; counterpart assistance. The following factors influence the cumulative number of confirmed cases in Germany: the Novel Coronavirus Crisis Command; large gathering cancelled; real-time COVID-19 risk assessment; the medical emergency plan; schools closure; restrictions on the import of overseas epidemics; the no-contact protocol. CONCLUSIONS: There are two differences between China and Germany in non-pharmaceutical interventions: China adopted the blocking strategy, and Germany adopted the first mitigation and then blocking strategy; China's goal is to eliminate the virus, and Germany's goal is to protect high-risk groups to reduce losses. At the same time, the policies implemented by the two countries have similarities: strict blockade is a key measure to control the source of infection, and improving medical response capabilities is an important way to reduce mortality.

Absence of Cryptosporidium hominis and dominance of zoonotic Cryptosporidium species in patients after Covid-19 restrictions in Auckland, New Zealand.

Coronavirus disease-2019 (Covid-19) nonpharmaceutical interventions have proven effective control measures for a range of respiratory illnesses throughout the world. These measures, which include isolation, stringent border controls, physical distancing and improved hygiene also have effects on other human pathogens, including parasitic enteric diseases such as cryptosporidiosis. Cryptosporidium infections in humans are almost entirely caused by two species: C. hominis, which is primarily transmitted from human to human, and Cryptosporidium parvum, which is mainly zoonotic. By monitoring Cryptosporidium species and subtype families in human cases of cryptosporidiosis before and after the introduction of Covid-19 control measures in New Zealand, we found C. hominis was completely absent after the first months of 2020 and has remained so until the beginning of 2021. Nevertheless, C. parvum has followed its typical transmission pattern and continues to be widely reported. We conclude that ~7 weeks of isolation during level 3 and 4 lockdown period interrupted the human to human transmission of C. hominis leaving only the primarily zoonotic transmission pathway used by C. parvum. Secondary anthroponotic transmission of C. parvum remains possible among close contacts of zoonotic cases. Ongoing 14-day quarantine measures for new arrivals to New Zealand have likely suppressed new incursions of C. hominis from overseas. Our findings suggest that C. hominis may be controlled or even eradicated through nonpharmaceutical interventions.

Impact of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Pandemic on Medical Use of Military Hospitals in Korea.

BACKGROUND: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic began in December 2019. While it has not yet ended, COVID-19 has already created transitions in health care, one of which is a decrease in medical use for health-related issues other than COVID-19 infection. Korean soldiers are relatively homogeneous in terms of age and physical condition. They show a similar disease distribution pattern every year and are directly affected by changes in government attempts to control COVID-19 with nonpharmaceutical interventions. This study aimed to identify the changes in patterns of outpatient visits and admissions to military hospitals for a range of disease types during a pandemic. METHODS: Outpatient attendance and admission data from all military hospitals in South Korea from January 2016 to December 2020 were analyzed. Only active enlisted soldiers aged 18-32 years were included. Outpatient visits where there was a diagnosis of pneumonia, acute upper respiratory tract infection, infectious conjunctivitis, infectious enteritis, asthma, allergic rhinitis, allergic conjunctivitis, atopic dermatitis, urticaria, and fractures were analyzed. Admissions for pneumonia, acute enteritis, and fractures were also analyzed. All outpatient visits and admissions in 2020 for each disease were counted on a weekly basis and compared with the average number of visits over the same period of each year from 2016 to 2019. The corrected value was calculated by dividing the ratio of total weekly number of outpatient visits or admissions to the corresponding medical department in 2020 to the average in 2016-2019. RESULTS: A total of 5,813,304 cases of outpatient care and 143,022 cases of admission were analyzed. For pneumonia, the observed and corrected numbers of outpatient visits and admissions in 2020 decreased significantly compared with the average of other years (P < 0.001). The results were similar for outpatient visits for acute upper respiratory tract infection and infectious conjunctivitis (P < 0.001), while the corrected number of outpatient visits for infectious enteritis showed a significant increase in 2020 (P = 0.005). The corrected number of outpatient visits for asthma in 2020 did not differ from the average of the previous 4 years but the number of visits for the other allergic diseases increased significantly (P < 0.001). For fractures, the observed and corrected numbers of outpatient visits and admissions in 2020 decreased significantly compared with the average of other years (P < 0.001). CONCLUSION: During the COVID-19 pandemic, outpatient visits to military hospitals for respiratory and conjunctival infections and fractures decreased, whereas visits for allergic diseases did not change or increased only slightly. Admissions for pneumonia decreased significantly in 2020, while those for acute enteritis and fractures also decreased, but showed an increased proportion compared with previous years. These results are important because they illustrate the changing patterns in lifestyle as a result of public encouragement to adopt nonpharmaceutical interventions during the pandemic and their effect on medical needs for both infectious and noninfectious diseases in a select group.

Universal features of epidemic models under social distancing guidelines.

Social distancing as a form of nonpharmaceutical intervention has been enacted in many countries as a form of mitigating the spread of COVID-19. There has been a large interest in mathematical modeling to aid in the prediction of both the total infected population and virus-related deaths, as well as to aid government agencies in decision making. As the virus continues to spread, there are both economic and sociological incentives to minimize time spent with strict distancing mandates enforced, and/or to adopt periodically relaxed distancing protocols, which allow for scheduled economic activity. The main objective of this study is to reduce the disease burden in a population, here measured as the peak of the infected population, while simultaneously minimizing the length of time the population is socially distanced, utilizing both a single period of social distancing as well as periodic relaxation. We derive a linear relationship among the optimal start time and duration of a single interval of social distancing from an approximation of the classic epidemic SIR model. Furthermore, we see a sharp phase transition region in start times for a single pulse of distancing, where the peak of the infected population changes rapidly; notably, this transition occurs well before one would intuitively expect. By numerical investigation of more sophisticated epidemiological models designed specifically to describe the COVID-19 pandemic, we see that all share remarkably similar dynamic characteristics when contact rates are subject to periodic or one-shot changes, and hence lead us to conclude that these features are universal in epidemic models. On the other hand, the nonlinearity of epidemic models leads to non-monotone behavior of the peak of infected population under periodic relaxation of social distancing policies. This observation led us to hypothesize that an additional single interval social distancing at a proper time can significantly decrease the infected peak of periodic policies, and we verified this improvement numerically. While synchronous quarantine and social distancing mandates across populations effectively minimize the spread of an epidemic over the world, relaxation decisions should not be enacted at the same time for different populations.

Covid-19 in Historical Context: Creating a Practical Past.

Decades ago, in his foundational essay on the early days of the AIDS crisis, medical historian Charles Rosenberg wrote, "epidemics start at a moment in time, proceed on a stage limited in space and duration, following a plot line of increasing revelatory tension, move to a crisis of individual and collective character, then drift toward closure." In the course of epidemics, societies grappled with sudden and unexpected mortality and also returned to fundamental questions about core social values. "Epidemics," Rosenberg wrote, "have always provided occasion for retrospective moral judgment" (Rosenberg 1989, pp. 2, 9). Following Rosenberg's observations, this essay places COVID-19 in the context of epidemic history to examine common issues faced during health crises-moral, political, social, and individual. Each disease crisis unfolds in its own time and place. Yet, despite specific contexts, we can see patterns and recurring concerns in the history of pandemics: (1) pandemics and disease crises in the past, along with public health responses to them, have had implications for civil liberties and government authority; (2) disease crises have acted as a sort of stress test on society, revealing, amplifying or widening existing social fissures and health disparities; (3) pandemics have forced people to cope with uncertain knowledge about the origin and nature of disease, the best sources of therapies, and what the future will hold after the crisis. While historians are not prognosticators, understanding past experience offers new perspectives for the present. The essay concludes by identifying aspects of history relevant to the road ahead.