Maximizing the Use of Scoring Systems in the Prediction of Outcomes in Acute Pancreatitis.

BACKGROUND/AIMS: No single classification system has so far effectively predicted the severity for Acute Pancreatitis (AP). This study compares the effectiveness of classification systems: Original Atlanta (OAC), Revised Atlanta (RAC), Determinant based classification (DBC), PANC 3, Harmless AP Score (HAPS), Japanese Severity Score (JSS), Symptoms Nutrition Necrosis Antibiotics and Pain (SNNAP), and Beside Index of Severity for AP (BISAP) in predicting outcomes in AP. METHODS: Scores for BISAP, Panc 3, HAPS, SNNAP, OAC, RAC, and DBC were calculated for 221 adult patients hospitalized for AP. Receiver Operating Characteristic curve analysis and Akaike Information Criteria were used to compare the effectiveness of predicting need for surgery, intensive care unit (ICU) admission, readmission within 30 days, and length of hospital stay. RESULTS: Both the RAC and the DBC strongly predict the length of hospital stay (p < 0.0001 for both) and ICU admission (p < 0.0001 for both). Additionally, both BISAP and PANC 3 showed weak predictive capacity at identifying length of stay and ICU admission. CONCLUSIONS: We suggest that BISAP and PANC3 be obtained within the initial 24 h of hospitalization to offer an early prediction of length of stay and ICU admission. Subsequently, RAC and DBC can offer further information later in the course of the disease.

Assessment of PANC3 Score in Predicting Severity of Acute Pancreatitis.

INTRODUCTION: Acute pancreatitis is inflammatory process of the pancreas associated with local and systemic complications. At present, there are lots of scores (such as Ransons, APACHE II, bedside index for severity in acute pancreatitis) that help us in predicting severity at the time of admission but these are time consuming or require complex calculation and are costly. MATERIAL AND METHODS: PANC3 Scoring System is one of the better systems because the three criteria used (hematocrit, body mass index, and pleural effusion) are simple, easy to assess, readily available, and economic. In this prospective study, 100 cases were evaluated to see the prospects of PANC3 scoring in predicting the severity of acute pancreatitis as decided by modified Marshals score. RESULTS: The results showed that PANC3 score had a 96.43% specificity, 75% sensitivity, 80% positive predictive value, and 95.29% negative predictive value. CONCLUSION: Hence, the PANC3 score is a cost-effective, promising score that helps in predicting the severity of acute pancreatitis leading to prompt treatment and early referral to higher center.

Prognóstico dos casos de pancreatite aguda pelo escore de PANC 3 / Prognosis of acute pancreatitis by PANC 3 score

RACIONAL: A pancreatite aguda é doença de grande importância na prática clínica, definida como inflamação do pâncreas podendo levar ao envolvimento de tecidos locais ou acometimento de outros órgãos de forma sistêmica, necessitando nesses casos de cuidados em terapia intensiva. OBJETIVO: Analisar o sistema simplificado de estratificação de PANC 3, correlacionando-o com o escore de Ranson para definição prognóstica de casos de pancreatite aguda. MÉTODO: Foi realizado um estudo observacional, prospectivo em que foram avaliados 65 pacientes que foram diagnosticados com quadro de pancreatite aguda. RESULTADOS: Obteve para o PANC 3 sensibilidade de 31,25%; especificidade de 100%; valor preditivo positivo de 100%; valor preditivo negativo de 81,66% e acurácia de 83,07%. CONCLUSÕES: Os critérios de PANC 3 têm sua validade na definição de gravidade e prognóstico da pancreatite aguda, não como método substituto, mas como método a ser associado aos critérios de Ranson, principalmente pela sua alta acurácia, valor preditivo positivo e especificidade.

BACKGROUND: Acute pancreatitis is a disease of great importance in clinical practice, defined as an inflammatory process of the pancreas that may involve local tissues or affect other organs in a systemic manner, requiring, in such cases, an intensive care. AIM: To analyze the simplified stratification system of the PANC 3 score, correlating it with the Ranson score, for the prognostic definition of cases of acute pancreatitis. METHOD: Was conducted a prospective, observational study in which were evaluated 65 patients who were diagnosed with acute pancreatitis. RESULTS: PANC 3 showed sensitivity, 31.25%; specificity,100%; positive predictive value, 100%; negative predictive value, 81.66% and accuracy, 83.07%. CONCLUSIONS: The PANC 3 criteria are applicable to define the severity and the prognosis of acute pancreatitis, and are not a substitute method, but rather a method to be associated with the Ranson criteria, mainly due to its high accuracy, positive predictive value and specificity.