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1.
Bull Entomol Res ; 114(4): 514-523, 2024 Aug.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-39189675

RESUMO

The fall armyworm (FAW), Spodoptera frugiperda (J.E. Smith) (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) is a highly destructive polyphagous pest that primarily damages maize. Maize is considered a most versatile crop for growing intercrops due to the wide row it needs. Maize-pea intercropping is preferred by small and marginal farmers worldwide due to various advantages including higher yield and improved economic benefits. However, the success of this intercropping system may be hampered if pea could sustain the FAW population. Thus, to clarify the fitness and potential effect of S. frugiperda on pea, we analysed the survival and development of S. frugiperda fed on pea leaves in the laboratory and constructed age-stage and two-sex life tables. Results showed that FAW successfully completed its life cycle when fed on pea and produced fertile offspring. The pre-adult duration was significantly higher on pea than maize. The net reproductive rate, intrinsic and finite rate of population increase on pea (135.06 offspring per individual, 0.12 offspring per individual per day and 1.13 times per day) were all significantly different from those on maize (417.64 offspring per individual, 0.19 offspring per individual per day and 1.21 times per day). The probability of survival of S. frugiperda at each stage was lower when fed on pea leaves than that of maize-fed larvae. Due to the overlapping growth periods of the maize and pea, S. frugiperda can easily proliferate throughout the year by shifting between adjacent crops. Thus, this study revealed the adaptability of S. frugiperda for pea and provides the foundation for further assessment of FAW risk to other inter-crops.


Assuntos
Larva , Pisum sativum , Spodoptera , Animais , Spodoptera/crescimento & desenvolvimento , Spodoptera/fisiologia , Larva/crescimento & desenvolvimento , Larva/fisiologia , Masculino , Feminino , Zea mays , Tábuas de Vida
2.
Bull Entomol Res ; 114(2): 244-253, 2024 Apr.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38444240

RESUMO

Since metabolism, survival, and reproduction in hexapods are closely related to temperatures; changes in the mean and variance of temperature are major aspects of global climate change. In the typical context of biological control, understanding how predator-prey systems are impacted under thermal conditions can make pest control more effective and resilient. With this view, this study investigated temperature-mediated development and predation parameters of the predator Harmonia axyridis against the potential prey Spodoptera litura. The age-stage, two-sex life table of the predator was constructed at four temperatures (i.e. 15, 20, 25, and 30°C) by feeding on the first instar larvae of S. litura. Our results showed that the mean generation time (T) decreased but the intrinsic rate of increase (r) and the finite rate of increase (λ) increased with increased temperature. The mean duration of the total preadult stage decreased with higher temperatures. The T and r were 70.47 d and 0.0769 d-1 at 15°C; 58.41 d and 0.0958 d-1 at 20°C; 38.71 d and 0.1526 d-1 at 25°C; and 29.59 d and 0.1822 d-1 at 30°C, respectively. The highest net reproductive rate (R0) and fecundity were obtained at 25°C. The highest λ (1.1998 d-1) and lowest T (29.59 d) were obtained at 30°C, whereas the maximum net predation rate (C0) was at 25°C. Total population and predation rates projections were the highest at 30°C. Based on these findings, we anticipate that biological control strategies for this predator release against S. litura should be attuned to warming scenarios to achieve better biocontrol functions.


Assuntos
Besouros , Larva , Controle Biológico de Vetores , Comportamento Predatório , Reprodução , Spodoptera , Temperatura , Animais , Spodoptera/fisiologia , Spodoptera/crescimento & desenvolvimento , Larva/crescimento & desenvolvimento , Larva/fisiologia , Besouros/fisiologia , Besouros/crescimento & desenvolvimento , Feminino , Masculino
3.
J Korean Med Sci ; 39(20): e168, 2024 May 27.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38804012

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: South Korea faces a critical challenge with its rapidly declining fertility rates and an increasingly aging population, which significantly impacts the country's blood supply and demand. Despite these nationwide trends, regional disparities in blood supply and demand have not been thoroughly studied. METHODS: This research utilized blood donation data from the Korean Red Cross and blood transfusion data from the Health Insurance Review and Assessment Service. We analyzed these datasets in conjunction with regional population projections to simulate blood supply and demand from 2021 to 2050 across South Korea. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to assess the impact of various factors, including the number of donors, age eligibility criteria for donations, frequency of donations, and blood discard rates. RESULTS: Our projections indicate a decreasing trend in blood supply, from 2.6 million units in 2021 to 1.4 million units by 2050, while demand is expected to peak at 5.1 million units by 2045 before declining. Metropolitan areas, particularly Gyeonggi Province, are projected to experience the most severe shortages. Sensitivity analyses suggest that increasing the donation frequency of existing donors and relaxing age eligibility criteria are more effective strategies in addressing these imbalances than merely increasing the number of new donors. Blood discard rates showed minimal impact on the overall blood shortage. CONCLUSION: The findings emphasize the urgent need for targeted strategies to mitigate national and regional blood supply shortages in South Korea. Encouraging frequent donations from experienced donors and broadening eligibility criteria are critical steps toward stabilizing the blood supply amidst demographic shifts. These strategies must be prioritized to address the impending regional disparities in blood availability.


Assuntos
Doadores de Sangue , Humanos , República da Coreia , Doadores de Sangue/estatística & dados numéricos , Adulto , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Feminino , Masculino , Adolescente , Adulto Jovem , Idoso
4.
J Environ Manage ; 359: 120897, 2024 May.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38669881

RESUMO

The spread of invasive alien species over natural environments has become one of the most serious threats to biodiversity and the functioning of ecosystems worldwide. Understanding the population attributes that allow a given species to become invasive is crucial for improving prevention and control interventions. Pampas grasslands are particularly sensitive to the invasion of exotic woody plants. In particular, the Ventania Mountains undergo the advance of alien woody plants; among which the Aleppo pine (Pinus halepensis) stands out due to the extension of the area it covers and the magnitude of the ecological changes associated to its presence. Using a model that describes the population dynamics of the species in the area, we evaluated the expected behavior of the population under different environmental conditions and different management scenarios. When the effect of stochastic fires was simulated, the growth rate was greater than 1 for all the frequencies considered, peaking under fires every nine years, on average. When evaluating the effect of periodic mechanical control of the adult population, the reduction in growth rate was insufficient, except for cutting intensities that significantly exceeded the current operational capacity of the area. Under prescribed fire scenarios, on the other hand, burning frequencies greater than seven years resulted in population reductions. The results highlight the importance of fire in regulating the population of P. halepensis in the Ventania Mountains, with contrasting effects depending on the frequency with which it occurs, which allows considering it as an effective environmental management option for the control of the species.


Assuntos
Pradaria , Espécies Introduzidas , Pinus , Dinâmica Populacional , Pinus/crescimento & desenvolvimento , Argentina , Biodiversidade , Ecossistema , Incêndios
5.
Int J Forecast ; 39(1): 73-97, 2023.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36568848

RESUMO

Population forecasts are used by governments and the private sector for planning, with horizons up to about three generations (around 2100) for different purposes. The traditional methods are deterministic using scenarios, but probabilistic forecasts are desired to get an idea of accuracy, assess changes, and make decisions involving risks. In a significant breakthrough, since 2015, the United Nations has issued probabilistic population forecasts for all countries using a Bayesian methodology that we review here. Assessment of the social cost of carbon relies on long-term forecasts of carbon emissions, which in turn depend on even longer-range population and economic forecasts, to 2300. We extend the UN method to very-long range population forecasts by combining the statistical approach with expert review and elicitation. While the world population is projected to grow for the rest of this century, it will likely stabilize in the 22nd century and decline in the 23rd century.

6.
Theor Popul Biol ; 143: 46-51, 2022 02.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34826513

RESUMO

Population projections rely on one-sex renewal models. Consequently, changing the projection of male mortality does not affect the projection of birth, contradicting commonsense. A two-sex renewal model is presented in this paper to provide a better description of reproduction and more reasonable population projections. This model is nonlinear and includes the one-sex renewal models as special cases. In this model, age-specific birth rates are defined for two sexes jointly; total fertility, net reproduction rate, and intrinsic growth rate are also derived for two sexes jointly; and age-specific populations approach or converge to stable status. Applying the two-sex renewal model to Australia, it indicates that one-sex models underestimated the intrinsic growth rate by 14 percent. Compared to the results of one-sex models, the two-sex model would provide higher growth rate for low-fertility countries, and lower growth rate for high-fertility countries. In other words, the one-sex models are commonly biased. If the two-sex model is applied to all the countries, it would project smaller populations for the world in the future.


Assuntos
Previsões Demográficas , Crescimento Demográfico , Coeficiente de Natalidade , Demografia , Fertilidade , Humanos , Masculino , Mortalidade , Dinâmica Populacional
7.
Demography ; 59(5): 1713-1737, 2022 10 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36083610

RESUMO

Accurate estimates of subnational populations are important for policy formulation and monitoring population health indicators. For example, estimates of the number of women of reproductive age are important to understand the population at risk of maternal mortality and unmet need for contraception. However, in many low-income countries, data on population counts and components of population change are limited, and so subnational levels and trends are unclear. We present a Bayesian constrained cohort component model for the estimation and projection of subnational populations. The model builds on a cohort component projection framework, incorporates census data and estimates from the United Nation's World Population Prospects, and uses characteristic mortality schedules to obtain estimates of population counts and the components of population change, including internal migration. The data required as inputs to the model are minimal and available across a wide range of countries, including most low-income countries. The model is applied to estimate and project populations by county in Kenya for 1979-2019 and is validated against the 2019 Kenyan census.


Assuntos
Censos , Anticoncepção , Teorema de Bayes , Estudos de Coortes , Feminino , Humanos , Quênia/epidemiologia
8.
Demography ; 59(1): 137-160, 2022 02 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34792100

RESUMO

After reaching historically low levels among the women born in the early 1940s, childlessness has been increasing in most Western countries among women born in the 1950s and 1960s. This increase took place as patterns of transition to adulthood have become increasingly late, protracted, and complex. Yet, it is precisely those women who enter a first relationship late, spend more time as single, and experience union instability who more often remain childless. This suggests that levels of childlessness will continue to increase as younger cohorts complete their childbearing histories. In this study, we use microsimulation to project the household and union formation histories of cohorts of Dutch women born between 1971 and 2000. Results suggest that childlessness will actually decrease among cohorts born between 1971 and 1983 and then increase among those born between 1984 and 2000. The decrease occurs as pathways of household and union formation become later, more protracted, and more complex, but also as cohabiting women start to exhibit a higher propensity to become mothers. The increase, on the other hand, occurs as pathways become somewhat less protracted and complex, but also as the propensity of cohabiting women to become mothers returns to previous levels and as age at leaving the parental home strongly rises. Childlessness levels appear to increasingly depend on the childbearing decisions of cohabiting couples and on age at leaving the parental home.


Assuntos
Características da Família , Casamento , Adulto , Etnicidade , Feminino , Humanos , Mães , Pais
9.
Bull Entomol Res ; 112(1): 29-43, 2022 Feb.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34218832

RESUMO

The most commercialized Bt maize plants in Europe were transformed with genes which express a truncated form of the insecticidal delta-endotoxin (Cry1Ab) from the soil bacterium Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt) specifically against Lepidoptera. Studies on the effect of transgenic maize on non-target arthropods have mainly converged on beneficial insects. However, considering the worldwide extensive cultivation of Bt maize, an increased availability of information on their possible impact on non-target pests is also required. In this study, the impact of Bt-maize on the non-target corn leaf aphid, Rhopalosiphum maidis, was examined by comparing biological traits and demographic parameters of two generations of aphids reared on transgenic maize with those on untransformed near-isogenic plants. Furthermore, free and bound phenolics content on transgenic and near-isogenic plants were measured. Here we show an increased performance of the second generation of R. maidis on Bt-maize that could be attributable to indirect effects, such as the reduction of defense against pests due to unintended changes in plant characteristics caused by the insertion of the transgene. Indeed, the comparison of Bt-maize with its corresponding near-isogenic line strongly suggests that the transformation could have induced adverse effects on the biosynthesis and accumulation of free phenolic compounds. In conclusion, even though there is adequate evidence that aphids performed better on Bt-maize than on non-Bt plants, aphid economic damage has not been reported in commercial Bt corn fields in comparison to non-Bt corn fields. Nevertheless, Bt-maize plants can be more easily exploited by R. maidis, possibly due to a lower level of secondary metabolites present in their leaves. The recognition of this mechanism increases our knowledge concerning how insect-resistant genetically modified plants impact on non-target arthropods communities, including tritrophic web interactions, and can help support a sustainable use of genetically modified crops.


Assuntos
Afídeos , Bacillus thuringiensis , Animais , Afídeos/genética , Bacillus thuringiensis/genética , Proteínas de Bactérias/genética , Produtos Agrícolas , Demografia , Endotoxinas/genética , Proteínas Hemolisinas/genética , Controle Biológico de Vetores , Plantas Geneticamente Modificadas/genética , Zea mays
10.
J Environ Manage ; 306: 114453, 2022 Mar 15.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35033890

RESUMO

Population projection models are important tools for conservation and management. They are often used for population status assessments, for threat analyses, and to predict the consequences of conservation actions. Although conservation decisions should be informed by science, critical decisions are often made with very little information to support decision-making. Conversely, postponing decisions until better information is available may reduce the benefit of a conservation decision. When empirical data are limited or lacking, expert elicitation can be used to supplement existing data and inform model parameter estimates. The use of rigorous techniques for expert elicitation that account for uncertainty can improve the quality of the expert elicited values and therefore the accuracy of the projection models. One recurring challenge for summarizing expert elicited values is how to aggregate them. Here, we illustrate a process for population status assessment using a combination of expert elicitation and data from the ecological literature. We discuss the importance of considering various aggregation techniques, and illustrate this process using matrix population models for the wood turtle (Glyptemys insculpta) to assist U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service decision-makers with their Species Status Assessment. We compare estimates of population growth using data from the ecological literature and four alternative aggregation techniques for the expert-elicited values. The estimate of population growth rate based on estimates from the literature (λmean = 0.952, 95% CI: 0.87-1.01) could not be used to unequivocally reject the hypotheses of a rapidly declining population nor the hypothesis of a stable, or even slightly growing population, whereas our results for the expert-elicited estimates supported the hypothesis that the wood turtle population will decline over time. Our results showed that the aggregation techniques used had an impact on model estimates, suggesting that the choice of techniques should be carefully considered. We discuss the benefits and limitations associated with each method and their relevance to the population status assessment. We note a difference in the temporal scope or inference between the literature-based estimates that provided insights about historical changes, whereas the expert-based estimates were forward looking. Therefore, conducting an expert-elicitation in addition to using parameter estimates from the literature improved our understanding of our species of interest.


Assuntos
Tartarugas , Animais , Coleta de Dados , Incerteza
11.
Ecol Lett ; 24(12): 2750-2762, 2021 Dec.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34609786

RESUMO

The familial structure of a population and the relatedness of its individuals are determined by its demography. There is, however, no general method to infer kinship directly from the life cycle of a structured population. Yet, this question is central to fields such as ecology, evolution and conservation, especially in contexts where there is a strong interdependence between familial structure and population dynamics. Here, we give a general formula to compute, from any matrix population model, the expected number of arbitrary kin (sisters, nieces, cousins, etc) of a focal individual ego, structured by the class of ego and of its kin. Central to our approach are classic but little-used tools known as genealogical matrices. Our method can be used to obtain both individual-based and population-wide metrics of kinship, as we illustrate. It also makes it possible to analyse the sensitivity of the kinship structure to the traits implemented in the model.


Assuntos
Dinâmica Populacional , Humanos
12.
J Anim Ecol ; 90(3): 562-573, 2021 03.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33073861

RESUMO

The climate on our planet is changing and the range distributions of organisms are shifting in response. In aquatic environments, species might not be able to redistribute poleward or into deeper water when temperatures rise because of barriers, reduced light availability, altered water chemistry or any combination of these. How species respond to climate change may depend on physiological adaptability, but also on the population dynamics of the species. Density dependence is a ubiquitous force that governs population dynamics and regulates population growth, yet its connections to the impacts of climate change remain little known, especially in marine studies. Reductions in density below an environmental carrying capacity may cause compensatory increases in demographic parameters and population growth rate, hence masking the impacts of climate change on populations. On the other hand, climate-driven deterioration of conditions may reduce environmental carrying capacities, making compensation less likely and populations more susceptible to the effects of stochastic processes. Here we investigate the effects of climate change on Baltic blue mussels using a 17-year dataset on population density. Using a Bayesian modelling framework, we investigate the impacts of climate change, assess the magnitude and effects of density dependence, and project the likelihood of population decline by the year 2030. Our findings show negative impacts of warmer and less saline waters, both outcomes of climate change. We also show that density dependence increases the likelihood of population decline by subjecting the population to the detrimental effects of stochastic processes (i.e. low densities where random bad years can cause local extinction, negating the possibility for random good years to offset bad years). We highlight the importance of understanding, and accounting for both density dependence and climate variation when predicting the impact of climate change on keystone species, such as the Baltic blue mussel.


Assuntos
Mudança Climática , Mytilus edulis , Animais , Teorema de Bayes , Conservação dos Recursos Naturais , Dinâmica Populacional
13.
Oecologia ; 197(3): 633-650, 2021 Nov.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34622334

RESUMO

For species inhabiting areas at the limit of their environmental tolerance, extreme events often drive population persistence. However, because extreme events are uncommon, their effects on population dynamics of expanding species are poorly known. We examined how extreme climate events in winter and summer affected three populations of wild turkeys occupying a natural climate gradient at the northern edge of their range. First, we examined the mechanism by which vital rates affect the population growth rate. Second, we developed a climate-dependent structured population model. Finally, by linking this population model to IPCC-class climate projections, we projected wild turkey population abundance in response to the frequency of extreme snow events by 2100 for the northernmost population. We showed that the population dynamics of the three populations is driven through different pathways expected from the theory of invading population dynamics; that those populations were mainly limited by heavy snow that decreases winter survival by restraining food access; and that a population of immigrant is projected to decline at the northern species range. This study exemplifies how extreme events affect population dynamics and range expansion of temperate species at the northern edge of the distribution.


Assuntos
Clima , Perus , Animais , Mudança Climática , Dinâmica Populacional , Estações do Ano , Neve
14.
J Anim Ecol ; 87(4): 893-905, 2018 07.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-29931772

RESUMO

Predictions on population responses to perturbations are often derived from trait-based approaches like integral projection models (IPMs), but are rarely tested. IPMs are constructed from functions that describe survival, growth and reproduction in relation to the traits of individuals and their environment. Although these functions comprise biologically non-informative statistical coefficients within standard IPMs, model parameters of the recently developed dynamic energy budget IPM (DEB-IPM) are life-history traits like "length at maturation" and "maximum reproduction rate". Testing predictions from mechanistic IPMs against empirical observations can therefore provide functional insights into the links between individual life history, the environment and population dynamics. Here, we compared the population dynamics of the bulb mite (Rhizoglyphus robini) predicted by a DEB-IPM with those observed in an experiment where populations experienced daily food rations that were either positively correlated over time (red noise), negatively (blue noise) or uncorrelated (white noise). We also selectively harvested large adults in half of these populations. The model failed to generate detailed predictions of population structure as juvenile numbers were overestimated; likely because juvenile-adult interference competition was underestimated. The model performed well at the population level as, for both harvested and unharvested populations, simulations matched the observed, long-term stochastic growth rate λs . We next generalised the model to investigate how stochastic change affects mite λs , which correlated well with the frequency f of experiencing periods of good environment, but, due to the relationship between f and noise colour ρ, did not correlate well with shifts in ρ. The sensitivity of λs to perturbations in life-history parameters depended on the type of stochastic change, as well as population growth. Our findings show that responses to differential mortality depend on individual life-history traits, environmental characteristics and population growth. As long-term climate change causes ever greater environmental fluctuations, trait-based approaches will be increasingly important in predicting population responses to change. We therefore conclude by illustrating what questions can be examined with mechanistic trait-based models like the DEB-IPM, the answers to which will advance our knowledge of the functional links between individual traits, the environment and population dynamics.


Assuntos
Acaridae/fisiologia , Meio Ambiente , Características de História de Vida , Animais , Modelos Biológicos , Dinâmica Populacional , Reprodução , Processos Estocásticos
15.
Popul Space Place ; 24(5)2018 Jul.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-30140176

RESUMO

Population projection is essential to governments, businesses, and research communities for many purposes. Although projection performance is often evaluated, we know very little about what factors affect projection accuracy. It is important to understand these factors in order to utilize the projections knowledgeably. This study fills this gap in the literature by comprehensively investigating the possible factors associated with population projection accuracy in 2010 for the continental US counties. The results indicate that the counties whose populations are more predictable tend to be desirable places-places with abundant employment opportunities, reliable public transportation infrastructure, easy access to work, and/or high land development potential; their neighboring counties tend to have a well-educated population and a higher income level. Also, projection accuracy is highly spatially associated. The findings provide important insights for population projection users to understand the characteristics of counties and their neighboring counties associated with their projection accuracy.

16.
Ecology ; 97(10): 2593-2602, 2016 Oct.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-27859120

RESUMO

Ecological theory suggests that pathogens are capable of regulating or limiting host population dynamics, and this relationship has been empirically established in several settings. However, although studies of childhood diseases were integral to the development of disease ecology, few studies show population limitation by a disease affecting juveniles. Here, we present empirical evidence that disease in lambs constrains population growth in bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis) based on 45 years of population-level and 18 years of individual-level monitoring across 12 populations. While populations generally increased (λ = 1.11) prior to disease introduction, most of these same populations experienced an abrupt change in trajectory at the time of disease invasion, usually followed by stagnant-to-declining growth rates (λ = 0.98) over the next 20 years. Disease-induced juvenile mortality imposed strong constraints on population growth that were not observed prior to disease introduction, even as adult survival returned to pre-invasion levels. Simulations suggested that models including persistent disease-induced mortality in juveniles qualitatively matched observed population trajectories, whereas models that only incorporated all-age disease events did not. We use these results to argue that pathogen persistence may pose a lasting, but under-recognized, threat to host populations, particularly in cases where clinical disease manifests primarily in juveniles.


Assuntos
Doenças dos Ovinos , Carneiro da Montanha , Animais , Animais Selvagens , Dinâmica Populacional , Crescimento Demográfico , Ovinos
17.
Popul Stud (Camb) ; 70(2): 181-200, 2016 07.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-27282412

RESUMO

The economic implications of increasing life expectancy are important concerns for governments in developed countries. The aims of this study were as follows: (i) to forecast mortality for 14 developed countries from 2010 to 2050, using the Poisson Common Factor Model; (ii) to project the effects of the forecast mortality patterns on support ratios; and (iii) to calculate labour force participation increases which could offset these effects. The forecast gains in life expectancy correlate negatively with current fertility. Pre-2050 support ratios are projected to fall most in Japan and east-central and southern Europe, and least in Sweden and Australia. A post-2050 recovery is projected for most east-central and southern European countries. The increases in labour force participation needed to counterbalance the effects of mortality improvement are greatest for Japan, Poland, and the Czech Republic, and least for the USA, Canada, Netherlands, and Sweden. The policy implications are discussed.


Assuntos
Países Desenvolvidos/estatística & dados numéricos , Expectativa de Vida/tendências , Mortalidade/tendências , Assistência a Idosos/economia , Idoso , Idoso de 80 Anos ou mais , Países Desenvolvidos/economia , Emprego/economia , Emprego/estatística & dados numéricos , Emprego/tendências , Feminino , Previsões , Humanos , Masculino , Assistência a Idosos/estatística & dados numéricos , Assistência a Idosos/tendências
18.
Ann Bot ; 116(3): 381-90, 2015 Sep.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-25814059

RESUMO

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Evaluation of population projection matrices (PPMs) that are focused on asymptotically based properties of populations is a commonly used approach to evaluate projected dynamics of managed populations. Recently, a set of tools for evaluating the properties of transient dynamics has been expanded to evaluate PPMs and to consider the dynamics of populations prior to attaining the stable-stage distribution, a state that may never be achieved in disturbed or otherwise ephemeral habitats or persistently small populations. This study re-evaluates data for a tropical orchid and examines the value of including such analyses in an integrative approach. METHODS: Six small populations of Lepanthes rubripetala were used as a model system and the R software package popdemo was used to produce estimates of the indices for the asymptotic growth rate (lambda), sensitivities, reactivity, first-time step attenuation, maximum amplification, maximum attenuation, maximal inertia and maximal attenuation. The response in lambda to perturbations of demographic parameters using transfer functions and multiple perturbations on growth, stasis and fecundity were also determined. The results were compared with previously published asymptotic indices. KEY RESULTS: It was found that combining asymptotic and transient dynamics expands the understanding of possible population changes. Comparison of the predicted density from reactivity and first-time step attenuation with the observed change in population size in two orchid populations showed that the observed density was within the predicted range. However, transfer function analysis suggests that the traditional approach of measuring perturbation of growth rates and persistence (inertia) may be misleading and is likely to result in erroneous management decisions. CONCLUSIONS: Based on the results, an integrative approach is recommended using traditional PPMs (asymptotic processes) with an evaluation of the diversity of dynamics that may arise when populations are not at a stable-stage distribution (transient processes). This method is preferable for designing rapid and efficient interventions after disturbances, and for developing strategies to establish new populations.


Assuntos
Conservação dos Recursos Naturais , Orchidaceae/fisiologia , Modelos Biológicos , Densidade Demográfica , Dinâmica Populacional
19.
J Econ Entomol ; 108(4): 1466-78, 2015 Aug.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-26470285

RESUMO

We collected developmental, survival, and reproduction data for Aphis fabae Scopoli (Hemiptera: Aphididae) reared on faba bean, Vicia faba L. 'Sevilla' at four constant temperatures (15, 20, 25, and 30°C), 70% relative humidity, and a photoperiod of 16:8 (L:D) h. The highest intrinsic rate of increase (r = 0.4347 d(-1)) and finite rate (λ = 1.5445 d(-1)) were observed at 25°C. The population projection based on the age-stage, two-sex life table quantitatively revealed the growth potential and stage structure of the aphid. We have included the following suggestions to aid researchers in life table studies: 1) The bootstrap method should be used to estimate the variance and SEs of developmental time, survival rate, fecundity, and population parameters. 2) The required number of bootstraps is dependent on the life table data--the higher the variation among individuals, the higher the number of bootstraps should be. In most cases, we suggest that 100,000 bootstraps should be used to obtain a stable estimate of variance and SEs. 3) Computer projection based on the age-stage, two-sex life table should be used to reveal the stage structure during population growth. 4) We used a simple equation based on the total fecundity, survival rate to adult stage, and first reproductive age to detect possible errors in life table parameters. 5) To assist readers in comprehending results, life table studies should include the cohort size, preadult survival rate, number of emerged female adults, mean fecundity, survival and fecundity curves, and population parameters.


Assuntos
Afídeos/fisiologia , Animais , Afídeos/crescimento & desenvolvimento , Feminino , Herbivoria , Tábuas de Vida , Masculino , Ninfa/crescimento & desenvolvimento , Ninfa/fisiologia , Crescimento Demográfico , Turquia , Vicia faba/crescimento & desenvolvimento
20.
Arch Phys Med Rehabil ; 95(11): 2029-39, 2014 Nov.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-24929026

RESUMO

OBJECTIVES: To (1) determine the long-term trajectory of health-related quality of life (HRQOL) for the dimensions of physical complaints and motor, psychological, and social functioning for groups of individuals with cerebral palsy (CP) aged 1 to 24 years; (2) assess the variability in HRQOL within individuals with CP over time; (3) assess the variability in HRQOL between individuals with CP; and (4) compare the HRQOL in individuals with CP to reference data of typically developing individuals. DESIGN: Multicenter prospective longitudinal study. SETTING: Rehabilitation departments of 3 university medical centers and various rehabilitation centers in The Netherlands. PARTICIPANTS: Dutch individuals with CP (N=424; age, 1-24y). INTERVENTIONS: Not applicable. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The HRQOL dimensions of physical complaints and motor, psychological, and social functioning. Each individual visited the rehabilitation department for 3 or 4 measurements. The time between measurements was 1 or 2 years. RESULTS: Individuals with CP experience an HRQOL that, on average, remains fairly stable over time. Variability in HRQOL within individuals with CP was similar to that within typically developing individuals. Variability between individuals with CP could be explained by type of CP (motor functioning), Gross Motor Function Classification System level (physical complaints and motor and social functioning), and intellectual disability (physical complaints and social functioning). Finally, individuals with CP experienced a lower HRQOL than did typically developing individuals, especially for the dimensions of motor and social functioning. CONCLUSIONS: Many changes take place in the psychosocial development of the individual with CP, which accordingly change their expectations and those of their caregivers, peers, and professionals. As a result, perceived physical complaints and motor, psychological, and social functioning remain fairly stable over many years.


Assuntos
Paralisia Cerebral/fisiopatologia , Paralisia Cerebral/psicologia , Nível de Saúde , Qualidade de Vida , Adolescente , Paralisia Cerebral/classificação , Pré-Escolar , Feminino , Humanos , Lactente , Deficiência Intelectual/psicologia , Estudos Longitudinais , Masculino , Desempenho Psicomotor , Qualidade de Vida/psicologia , Índice de Gravidade de Doença , Participação Social , Fatores de Tempo , Adulto Jovem
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